2020 New York Redistricting

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

This would be a very sensible way to do it.

One thing that you might think would be a problem with this design (from Goldman's perspective, anyway), would be that more of the population is in the Staten Island part than the Manhattan part, so theoretically you might think Goldman could be vulnerable to a geographically-based "anti-Manhattan" primary challenge.

However, that is not really the case with that configuration. Depending on exactly how you drew it, there would be about 108k Biden votes in the Manhattan part of the district, but there are only 91k Biden votes in Staten Island.

That means that in a geographically-based Democratic primary, a Manhattan candidate would be favored over a Staten Island one even if turnout were strictly proportional to Biden votes. However, a primary would obviously be lower turnout than a Presidential election, and would surely be even more lopsided in favor of Manhattan because a greater proportion of the Biden voters in Manhattan would be high propensity likely voters, whereas a larger share of the Biden voters in Staten Island would be lower propensity unlikely voters who are not going to vote in a primary.

So insofar as the greatest hypothetical electoral danger to Goldman is probably a primary challenge, this would likely make him safer rather than make him less safe. So it is something he would have every reason to get behind or at least to be OK with.

Plus, I would bet the Chinese/Asian access seat could be configured in such a way as to take some of the progressive white areas from the Brooklyn African American seats, so the Democratic incumbents in those seats would have reason to be happy with this as well.

So Dems should really do this or something very similar to it in the remap.

if you go back a few pages, I think the idea for this sort of alignment emerged organically here, or at least that's where I first saw it and became enamored with this design. It just makes a lot sense as a solution to the gordian knot of NYC district politics. It's also close to the most Dem a reasonably looking district with Staten in it can be, which I'm sure some people appreciated more then the following analysis.

Basically, it starts from the position that this new redistricting process has much less interests to balance than in 2021 outside of NYC (and can focus on neatness and partisan gain), but inside the city things are perhaps more complicated. Instead of an east-west Manhattan incumbent divide, we now have a north-south one. What does Goldman theoretically want and fear? Probably wants less activist voters, given that he barely defeated a more numerous slate of progressives in a heavily split primary.  Probably also would want a Manhattan-focused district, since a majority of Dem voters are in those Working Families Brooklyn brownstones.

Which leads us to wonder where he will find such voters. NY-10 can somewhat push north, but not to any meaningful degree. NY-12 very quickly hits the Harlem/Bronx/Heights wall of African American and Hispanic residents that are wanted and needed for that regions districts. NY-12 similarly can't go east into Brooklyn. Beyond the fact that this would hurt Nadler's base, it doesn't make sense to add a second geographic separator in the East River to the seat alongside Central Park. Which means no matter what, some Manhattan district is going to have to go south like now, just trading the neighborhoods around.

This isn't that surprising, it's what was done last decade and what was attempted again on the initial map. But there is ample reason to believe this option is no longer on the table. Beyond the absurd uncompactness of the old NY-10 being one of the maps clear problems, the neighborhoods in question are all now mostly with NY-08 and NY09. And those incumbents don't want to let go of their prizes, since the alternative are the progressive neighborhoods that almost got rid of Clarke last decade. Similarly, such a alignment will need a justification since on the surface it will be less sensible than previously. After all, the old NY-10 was a specifically Jewish district for the only NYC Jewish Democrat, and that's why it could squiggle over to Borough Park and neighboring areas.

Which led to the theory of giving NY-10 cover as a Asian seat to go into south Brooklyn. Give the progressive neighborhoods nobody wants to NY-11, and then squiggle NY-10 down to the southern Neighborhoods using the Chinese COI as an excuse. Except then on further analysis, it wasn't quite so obvious how this would immensely benefit Goldman. It would still be Brooklyn dominated, and drastically upping the Chinese population would likely lead to a more spirited challenge from Niou who he barely beat last time.

Which led us to this conclusion of reversing NY-10 and NY-11. And it seems to solve almost everyone's problem, as you partially explained. For Goldman, Staten-Manhattan is not a link that is anyway productive for progressives. The seat is Manhatten-Domianted by way of it's partisanship. Yes, Staten has more people, but their GOP lean mean Manhattan has more Dems in the Primary. And the Republican need to get votes out of Manhattan to even come close to winning means that Manhatten decides overall control. Like I'm very confident even Hochul won such a seat by 10K votes (NY an their data access issues...) thanks to the inflexibility of Manhattan Dems.

On the NY-11 side, you have almost a whole new district for the areas no incumbent wants. Obviously some significant chunk will be needed to justify it's creation without Staten as before, which is obviously to unite the growing Chinese neighborhoods and therefore include Manhattan's Chinatown. But you can also throw in some of the Working Families areas and give them to whoever will be elected. Now when I first got attached to the concept, the idea was that this would obviously elect Niou and lure her away from the mayors contest, but that has obviously changed with the mayor's scandals. Niou still could get elected to the seat, but the mayor is still gonna get challenged by a bunch of other people, even if she finds a different job.

[Tintrlvr]

Except I don't think Schumer's 2022 numbers are a very good baseline - turnout was clearly lopsided in favor of Rs in a way that is unlikely for 2024, plus local dynamics pretty heavily favored Rs. Same way that Whitmer numbers in MI aren't a good baseline for Biden in 2024.

I don't think Rs were really thinking much about the redraw when choosing to get rid of Santos but may of just thought of him as an electoral liability in the future - regardless of how NY-03 is redrawn, it'll be a seat where Rs have at least a remote possibility of winning, and Santos throws that remote possibility away.

The redrawn NY-03 is unlikely to be safe for Democrats as long as NY-04 isn't being made into an R sink at the same time.

Have you even looked at Nassau electoral geography? Pushing both districts a good deal to towards the Democrats is literally the easiest thing, cause you are more or less just restoring the allignment from last decade. The most reliable GOP voters are all fairly densely concentrated in the Southeast corner centered on Massapequa. It was previously in NY-02 but then the master divided it up between the two Nassau seats. And Dems are obviously throwing it right back in NY-02, which is gonna become a pack of varying strength depending upon what happens further to the east.

Like the map below has both Nassau seats over Biden+20 and nominally only plurality White. Obviously it comes at the expense of NY-01 only going from Biden+0 to Biden+6 and not like Biden+10 or more, but Nassau is not this GOP bastion that needs to be spiderwebbed.

What overlay are you using and what’s it represent?

The overlay is not native to DRA, its NY towns/hamlets/CDPs. This can be found easily at the census tigerline "place" shapefile and imported accordingly.

Such boundaries are VERY important on Long Island (and the rest of the downstate suburbs) IMO, cause the city lines native to DRA are bulky, uninformative, and don't really show the diversity of suburban communities in the region. I've had it imported in DRA since like 2021 when for some reason it was changed from the towns to the present lines, leading to a mass of squares upstate and uninformative blobs downstate.

DRA used to have it and replaced it with the towns at some point, which was very disappointing. The towns basically do not matter at all in Nassau and only a little bit in Suffolk, but the villages and hamlets are very important.

[Atlas Force]

One thing Dems will want to consider is which upstate district will get Spring Valley and Kirya Joels. These fast growing ultra-Conservative Jewish communities could shift a Biden + 10 seat right in the long run.

Why not put them in Bowman’s district (NY-16)?

I tried drawing what that might look like:

[Mr.Phips]

One thing Dems will want to consider is which upstate district will get Spring Valley and Kirya Joels. These fast growing ultra-Conservative Jewish communities could shift a Biden + 10 seat right in the long run.

Why not put them in Bowman’s district (NY-16)?

I tried drawing what that might look like:

Perfect.

[Oryxslayer]

One thing Dems will want to consider is which upstate district will get Spring Valley and Kirya Joels. These fast growing ultra-Conservative Jewish communities could shift a Biden + 10 seat right in the long run.

Why not put them in Bowman’s district (NY-16)?

I tried drawing what that might look like:

Something like this in Westchester is why I secretly suspect Latimer is not running against Bowman, he's against Jones and Lawler, which is why a lot of his statements has a more generic anti-testimonial progressive outlook. He just has to file there right now cause of Rye. The core of NY-16 is Yonkers, Mount Vernon, and whatever bits of NYC are thrown in. If you   look at the map of when Latimer had a Dem primary in 2017, it was diverse areas like and including these he lost, even as he won by like 25 points overall. So even if he draws the rest of the district in his favor, its still going to be a grueling primary. Its comparatively easier to make NY-17, the Whiter district where he enjoys primary support, into a super-Westchester Biden+20 or more seat by throwing even more of Rockland into NY-16 than you have. Far easier to win versus both Jones who tried to carpetbag and is out of office, and Lawler who would see the floor fall out. The Latimer allies on the commission only make this seem more likely to me, cause he can actually play this game with some confidence in it's outcome.

Like you can make NY-17 have a wider Dem margin of victory than NY-16 through taking in literally all of Westchester except the bits important to NY-16's existence. And its very hard to see Latimer not wanting a district similar to this.

[Tintrlvr]

One thing Dems will want to consider is which upstate district will get Spring Valley and Kirya Joels. These fast growing ultra-Conservative Jewish communities could shift a Biden + 10 seat right in the long run.

Why not put them in Bowman’s district (NY-16)?

I tried drawing what that might look like:

You have to remember that these areas have a tendency to swing dramatically, and while they are usually solid R Presidentially (not in 2016, but they were in 2004-2012 and in 2020), they very frequently vote Democratic for both state and federal elections other than President. So the Republicans cannot rely on them to make competitive seats, and the Democrats should be less worried about growth in them than you might think - although particularly if the Democrats get the right candidate in there (the Democrats really should be running Jewish candidates in any district containing Rockland County, and not doing so is electoral malpractice - even your average everyday Reform Jew should be able to get a solid minority or in some cases majority percentage of the vote in those enclaves, enough to put any district containing them out of reach for a Republican).

[patzer]

One thing Dems will want to consider is which upstate district will get Spring Valley and Kirya Joels. These fast growing ultra-Conservative Jewish communities could shift a Biden + 10 seat right in the long run.

Why not put them in Bowman’s district (NY-16)?

I tried drawing what that might look like:

You have to remember that these areas have a tendency to swing dramatically, and while they are usually solid R Presidentially (not in 2016, but they were in 2004-2012 and in 2020), they very frequently vote Democratic for both state and federal elections other than President. So the Republicans cannot rely on them to make competitive seats, and the Democrats should be less worried about growth in them than you might think - although particularly if the Democrats get the right candidate in there (the Democrats really should be running Jewish candidates in any district containing Rockland County, and not doing so is electoral malpractice - even your average everyday Reform Jew should be able to get a solid minority or in some cases majority percentage of the vote in those enclaves, enough to put any district containing them out of reach for a Republican).

There's always the option of trying to make a Jewish plurality district by pairing Rockland with Manhattan (water connectivity only). Looks horrendous but it's a theoretical option for plausible deniability in gerrymandering.

[Roll Roons]

FWIW about NY-11: https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1735690406610829752

[Oryxslayer]

FWIW about NY-11: https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1735690406610829752

The issue is not NY-11 in the old map, but NY-10. The court wants something that isn't you know, blatantly evil and in your face like the initial version of that seat. And if you can't do that, like I described in the process of elim post above, you really have two options. Keep like the current seat and do NY-10 with progressive Brooklyn, or do it with Staten. And there is seemingly one option more Dem incumbents would like more than the other.

[SilverStar]

FWIW about NY-11: https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1735690406610829752

His search:trust me bro

[Tekken_Guy]

I doubt Democrats are going to do the Throgs Neck crossing of NY-03 again like Wasserman has in his map. That seat was drawn specifically for Alessandra Biaggi and she almost certainly isn't running again this year.

[Oryxslayer]

I doubt Democrats are going to do the Throgs Neck crossing of NY-03 again like Wasserman has in his map. That seat was drawn specifically for Alessandra Biaggi and she almost certainly isn't running again this year.

Yeah wasseman's map is literally the hochul-mander but cleaner. Which as we have analyzed here, is a fallacious place to start. The lack of once-fickle dem incumbents in many places means Dems can do things differently, often both neater and more partisan.

[Brittain33]

There's always the option of trying to make a Jewish plurality district by pairing Rockland with Manhattan (water connectivity only). Looks horrendous but it's a theoretical option for plausible deniability in gerrymandering.

That would be funny. Those two populations have nothing in common and the Haredi communities would consider the Manhattan Jews to be goyim..

[wbrocks67]

Wasserman keeps on wishcasting that Dems are gonna control themselves but it doesn't appear there's any reason for them to.

[SilverStar]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1735750325259194660

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/ET_Californian/status/1735771728536539350

[Progressive Pessimist]

Wasserman keeps on wishcasting that Dems are gonna control themselves but it doesn't appear there's any reason for them to.

And frankly, they shouldn't.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Gerrymander that sort of works off the current Court drawn map. Central Valley can prolly be cleaned up a bit. Generally a gerrymander that tries to be sneaky, but a few districts like NY-01, NY-02, and NY-16 are pretty obvious. In NYC, NY-10 is drawn as a new 32% Asian opportunity seat. Realistically though, this map likely makes several incumbents upset so doubt it'll happen.








2020 Pres vote by seat:

NY-01: Biden + 11.2
NY-02: Trump + 11.8
NY-03: Biden + 15.1
NY-04: Biden + 15.2
NY-05: Biden + 53.8
NY-06: Biden + 28.3
NY-07: Biden + 56.3
NY-08: Biden + 71.2
NY-09: Biden + 41.3
NY-10: Biden + 38.9
NY-11: Biden + 16.3
NY-12: Biden + 71.1
NY-13: Biden + 78.2
NY-14: Biden + 57.8
NY-15: Biden + 67.4
NY-16: Biden + 26.3
NY-17: Biden + 19.9
NY-18: Biden + 10.2
NY-19: Biden + 11.6
NY-20: Biden + 17.3
NY-21: Trump + 17.2
NY-22: Biden + 11.3
NY-23: Trump + 18.1
NY-24: Trump + 20.4
NY-25: Biden + 20.6
NY-26: Biden + 24.4

Every swing seat gets bluer to some extent, with all D seats being over Biden + 10.

[Mr.Phips]

Gerrymander that sort of works off the current Court drawn map. Central Valley can prolly be cleaned up a bit. Generally a gerrymander that tries to be sneaky, but a few districts like NY-01, NY-02, and NY-16 are pretty obvious. In NYC, NY-10 is drawn as a new 32% Asian opportunity seat. Realistically though, this map likely makes several incumbents upset so doubt it'll happen.








2020 Pres vote by seat:

NY-01: Biden + 11.2
NY-02: Trump + 11.8
NY-03: Biden + 15.1
NY-04: Biden + 15.2
NY-05: Biden + 53.8
NY-06: Biden + 28.3
NY-07: Biden + 56.3
NY-08: Biden + 71.2
NY-09: Biden + 41.3
NY-10: Biden + 38.9
NY-11: Biden + 16.3
NY-12: Biden + 71.1
NY-13: Biden + 78.2
NY-14: Biden + 57.8
NY-15: Biden + 67.4
NY-16: Biden + 26.3
NY-17: Biden + 19.9
NY-18: Biden + 10.2
NY-19: Biden + 11.6
NY-20: Biden + 17.3
NY-21: Trump + 17.2
NY-22: Biden + 11.3
NY-23: Trump + 18.1
NY-24: Trump + 20.4
NY-25: Biden + 20.6
NY-26: Biden + 24.4

Every swing seat gets bluer to some extent, with all D seats being over Biden + 10.

Looks great and way cleaner than the first Hochulmander.  Dems would be idiots to not pass something like this.  Only risk is that I could see another Katko winning and holding NY-22 in a Presidem midterm.

[Brittain33]

Very fair, pro-democracy. Hope someone is reading this thread.

[Oryxslayer]

Gerrymander that sort of works off the current Court drawn map. Central Valley can prolly be cleaned up a bit. Generally a gerrymander that tries to be sneaky, but a few districts like NY-01, NY-02, and NY-16 are pretty obvious. In NYC, NY-10 is drawn as a new 32% Asian opportunity seat. Realistically though, this map likely makes several incumbents upset so doubt it'll happen.

SNIP

2020 Pres vote by seat:

NY-01: Biden + 11.2
NY-02: Trump + 11.8
NY-03: Biden + 15.1
NY-04: Biden + 15.2
NY-05: Biden + 53.8
NY-06: Biden + 28.3
NY-07: Biden + 56.3
NY-08: Biden + 71.2
NY-09: Biden + 41.3
NY-10: Biden + 38.9
NY-11: Biden + 16.3
NY-12: Biden + 71.1
NY-13: Biden + 78.2
NY-14: Biden + 57.8
NY-15: Biden + 67.4
NY-16: Biden + 26.3
NY-17: Biden + 19.9
NY-18: Biden + 10.2
NY-19: Biden + 11.6
NY-20: Biden + 17.3
NY-21: Trump + 17.2
NY-22: Biden + 11.3
NY-23: Trump + 18.1
NY-24: Trump + 20.4
NY-25: Biden + 20.6
NY-26: Biden + 24.4

Every swing seat gets bluer to some extent, with all D seats being over Biden + 10.

I guess I'll post the map that I have been working on in my free time this week, a map I have labeled with the term "circumstantially clean." What I mean by that is I am trying to follow current events and circumstances and use that as a guide. At the same time, I'm not creating something visually ugly or with districts that have numerous awkward protrusions, while also trying to follow county/neighborhood/town lines when viable.

And I would say beyond NYC (which you kinda self-admit is too much of a hassle, no shame there tbh) things are largely similar.



In depth analysis:



While the commitment to maintaining the current map's 'two Nassau two Suffolk' seat arrangement is admirable, it's not very practical for their desires. Southeast Nassau, the source of many 2022 issues, is getting thrown right back into NY-02. In exchange Nassau gets all the Huntingdon townships. NY-01 is still nested in Suffolk, and the Nassau seats are generally sensible. NY-03 specifically is intentionally designed to harken back to Suozzi's former seat. However, if the special election results are extremally close or a Dem loss, then this seat is probably going to get less compact, poach from NY-01, and get more Dem at the expense of her neighbor.

NY-01: Biden+9.4, NY-02: Trump+16.8, NY-03: Biden+16.3, NY-04: Biden+20.3



In NYC, partisanship matters less of course when compared to ethnic groups and the progressive/mainstream primary alignments. Things are divided up based on the prior analysis.

The AA districts are not gonna let go of the GOP and Hasidic parts of Brooklyn. They currently have them now, it raises the Black share of the primary, and neither incumbent is in a position to be overruled. Therefore, NY-10 goes to Staten and denies the Goldman challenge while at the same time eliminating the GOP seat. Staten's behavior may have varied wildly over the past 8 years, but lower Manhattan's does not budge. I'm fairly confident that despite everything, this is a Hochul+6 seat by over 10K votes for example, though it's impossible to get exact data in NY. This means NY-11 is a Brooklyn progressive/Asian seat that here is plurality White, unlike previously shown iterations, cause the NYC incumbents would want to chuck in more progressives and less of Sheepshead.

The progressive primary areas are similarly divided up and diluted. About 200K goes with each of AOC and the new NY-11, which are fine taking in those voters. 150K goes with NY-07. Velazquez has seemed to be fine with taking in these parts of Brooklyn in the past, and has history representing them. That said, Velazquez is getting old, and I'm still not sure if there's any version of a Bushwick + Progressive areas seat that doesn't see Julia Salazar run for congress in the future. Then about 65K in each of NY-06 and the two AA districts combined.

I've recently found myself throwing the Middle Village region into NY-05. Beyond the fact that the White republicans won't be noticed in a AA seat, but might in NY-06, it allows for the surrounding regions to better be grouped into likeminded districts. Most notably, the (south) Asians in Jamaica can go into NY-06. Though despite the change making sense, the present design where the districts the two regions are in reverse themselves will probably persist.

NY-10: Biden+18.1, NY-11: Biden+46.4





Westchester and the Hudson Valley is where present developments influence things the most. Bowman is on the outs with the NY Dem party, so anything he wants is ignored. Latimer meanwhile gets the neat district of his dreams. Oh, we have also forgot an additional reason why Rockland or at least a good chunk of it is likely to be paired with Yonkers like it did a decade ago: that's where Lawler lives. So he's getting drawn out in more ways than one.

NY-18 on the Hochul-mander was drawn to protect SPM, a suburban rep who is now history. Pat Ryan, the new guy, is from Ulster and previously was the county executive. So Ulster is kept whole unlike at present, and the district is reoriented westwards around the county, the core Catskill COI, and the Hudson river towns. All these changes for incumbents mean NY-19 is less Democratic than in some other versions.

NY-16: Biden+22.8, NY-17: Biden+27.7, NY-18: Biden+11.7, NY-19: Biden+7.6





Upstate is generally just a partisan sorting, though with some desire to maintain counties when viable.  There aren't clear sprawling seats or tiny 2k bits removed from counties when necessary.

Several things to note. First, Tonko in NY-20 has lived in Amsterdam (Montgomery County) for a while now, which is presently outside the district. However, he's old, doing fine without it, and that would add at least one additional county cut in Montgomery and probably also Saratoga.

Second, Morelle got a scare last year under the underwhelming NY Dem results and Orleans getting partially added to his seat. So he probably won't be in a position to demand the most COI driven seat ever. At the same time, the guiding principle of this map means NY-25 isn't becoming a octopus with arms to Brockport, Geneseo, and Canandaigua. So instead I just give him a more sensible chunk of Ontario in exchange for the GOP towns west of Rochester.

Finally, NY-26 is less compact than it could be. The is because of Higgins's resignation on likely replacement with Kennedy. India Walton's expected run means there is now a desire to add as many suburban Dems as possible to the already-existing majority non-Buffalo Dem electorate.

NY-20: Biden+17.3, NY-21: Trump+17.8, NY-22: Biden+12, NY-23: Trump+19.1, NY-24: Trump+23.1, NY-25: Biden+21.7, NY-26: Biden+25.8

[Atlas Force]

So what do you guys think of the conspiracy theory suggested by some people on Twitter that Latimer’s allies on the commission might vote for a Republican map as long as it helps Latimer? Personally I don’t think it’s likely in the slightest (which is why I call it a conspiracy theory).

[ProgressiveModerate]

So what do you guys think of the conspiracy theory suggested by some people on Twitter that Latimer’s allies on the commission might vote for a Republican map as long as it helps Latimer? Personally I don’t think it’s likely in the slightest (which is why I call it a conspiracy theory).

Doubt that happens but if it does, NY Dems truly deserve to be bitten by a giant capybara.

[Oryxslayer]

So what do you guys think of the conspiracy theory suggested by some people on Twitter that Latimer’s allies on the commission might vote for a Republican map as long as it helps Latimer? Personally I don’t think it’s likely in the slightest (which is why I call it a conspiracy theory).

Doubt that happens but if it does, NY Dems truly deserve to be bitten by a giant capybara.

I don't buy it mainly cause the commission is already stacked hard against bowman, Latimer doesn't need more friends from the GOP.  Partially this is bowman own making. They also really only care about Westchester, which in terms of partisanship is close to a extention of NYC at this point. The commission can mess with NY-16, or as I suspect NY-17, as much as they want without touching other seats.

Also, there's really no evidence of it, and most importantly, it doesn't matter.  The Dems on the commission acted on their own last week in their statement, which doesn't suggest anything like what was dreamed up. Similarly,  any map passed by the commission has to then pass the Dem supermajority legisture. No GOP msp is going to pass that vote. Dems would certainly appreciate the commission again deadlockiing itself, so they can send two maps once more and pass (or modify within the legal threshold) the dem plan, but they would be fine going at it once more on their own.

[Atlas Force]

So what do you guys think of the conspiracy theory suggested by some people on Twitter that Latimer’s allies on the commission might vote for a Republican map as long as it helps Latimer? Personally I don’t think it’s likely in the slightest (which is why I call it a conspiracy theory).

Doubt that happens but if it does, NY Dems truly deserve to be bitten by a giant capybara.

I don't buy it mainly cause the commission is already stacked hard against bowman, Latimer doesn't need more friends from the GOP.  Partially this is bowman own making. They also really only care about Westchester, which in terms of partisanship is close to a extention of NYC at this point. The commission can mess with NY-16, or as I suspect NY-17, as much as they want without touching other seats.

Also, there's really no evidence of it, and most importantly, it doesn't matter.  The Dems on the commission acted on their own last week in their statement, which doesn't suggest anything like what was dreamed up. Similarly,  any map passed by the commission has to then pass the Dem supermajority legisture. No GOP msp is going to pass that vote. Dems would certainly appreciate the commission again deadlockiing itself, so they can send two maps once more and pass (or modify within the legal threshold) the dem plan, but they would be fine going at it once more on their own.