NH-Gov 2024: If You Knew Sununu Like I Knew Sununu

[Spectator]

Kelly Ayotte won a Senate seat nearly 14 years ago and lost it in a favorable year for her almost 8 years ago. I feel like this happens every 2 years where a legacy candidate comes back to try and win a state that has passed them by and they pretty much always lose. I don't know the state too well so I won't commit to a bold prediction, but I don't see why Ayotte would be anything better than a tossup.

Women are perceived as more liberal/moderate then men

Whoever the angrier NH woman is will win

[Morning in Atlas]

Holy sh** I can finally stop coping

[Morning in Atlas]

https://twitter.com/ChuckMorseForNH/status/1681702460480471041

LMFAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[Pres Mike]

Sununu said he won't run for a fifth term. I was confused when I read that, surely he hasn't been in power that long?

Today I leaned NH elects a governor every two years! Same for Vermont. That must be exhausting lol for both voters and politicians

[BigZuck08]

At first Safe R, but then Sununu decided not to run, so now I rank this as Lean D.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Collins will soon be the last statewide Republican in the Northeast, perhaps north of the mason Dixon.

[Morning in Atlas]

Anyways, the Morse news puts the primary at Safe Edelblut if he wants it. Even if Ayotte ran, the NHGOP has gotten much more conservative and their alliance with Ayotte/Sununu is one of electability. Edelblut nearly beat Sununu in 2016 and is very conservative, but not insane like Bolduc. He'll get some statewide support from the right wing of the party.

With Morse in, all Edelblut needs to do is announce and he wins.

With Ayotte: Edelblut 46-Ayotte 37-Morse 17
Without Ayotte: Edelblut 68-Morse 32

[Benjamin Frank]

Sununu said he won't run for a fifth term. I was confused when I read that, surely he hasn't been in power that long?

Today I leaned NH elects a governor every two years! Same for Vermont. That must be exhausting lol for both voters and politicians

At one time, I believe nearly every state had two year terms for governor. When Franklin Roosevelt was elected President in 1932, he had been the two term governor of New York after first being elected in 1928.

When President Clinton started his tenure as Governor of Arkansas, he was elected two a two year term. It was changed to a four year term while he was governor.

[ꙮ]

Sununu said he won't run for a fifth term. I was confused when I read that, surely he hasn't been in power that long?

Today I leaned NH elects a governor every two years! Same for Vermont. That must be exhausting lol for both voters and politicians

At one time, I believe nearly every state had two year terms for governor. When Franklin Roosevelt was elected President in 1932, he had been the two term governor of New York after first being elected in 1928.

When President Clinton started his tenure as Governor of Arkansas, he was elected two a two year term. It was changed to a four year term while he was governor.

Standardization of the gubernatorial term to 4 years was a very slow process. In early America gubernatorial terms were often 1 or 2 years. Some states (NY, NJ, DE) even had 3 year gubernatorial terms— completely bizarre by modern standards. Massachusetts had yearly gubernatorial elections until the beginning of the 20th century. There were still plenty of states with 2 year terms well into the mid/late 20th century too.

[Pres Mike]

Collins will soon be the last statewide Republican in the Northeast, perhaps north of the mason Dixon.

A Republican nearly won the New York governorship in November. 47% of the vote!

[Roll Roons]

Collins will soon be the last statewide Republican in the Northeast, perhaps north of the mason Dixon.

PA has a Republican treasurer and auditor. Ciattarelli could also win the NJ governorship in 2025 assuming Biden is still president and Phil Scott is a lock for another term if he wants it.

[DaleCooper]

Collins will soon be the last statewide Republican in the Northeast, perhaps north of the mason Dixon.

PA has a Republican treasurer and auditor. Ciattarelli could also win the NJ governorship in 2025 assuming Biden is still president and Phil Scott is a lock for another term if he wants it.

Even after Phil Scott, Vermont strikes me as a state with potential to elect another reasonable Republican governor should one come along.

[Pollster]

Ayotte will not win this race but her candidacy could force the DGA to divert resources from North Carolina to the relatively expensive Boston media market.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Collins will soon be the last statewide Republican in the Northeast, perhaps north of the mason Dixon.

PA has a Republican treasurer and auditor. Ciattarelli could also win the NJ governorship in 2025 assuming Biden is still president and Phil Scott is a lock for another term if he wants it.

Garrity could loose in 24, but you’re right I forgot about Scott

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1682036220594102276

[Brother Jonathan]

Anyways, the Morse news puts the primary at Safe Edelblut if he wants it. Even if Ayotte ran, the NHGOP has gotten much more conservative and their alliance with Ayotte/Sununu is one of electability. Edelblut nearly beat Sununu in 2016 and is very conservative, but not insane like Bolduc. He'll get some statewide support from the right wing of the party.

With Morse in, all Edelblut needs to do is announce and he wins.

With Ayotte: Edelblut 46-Ayotte 37-Morse 17
Without Ayotte: Edelblut 68-Morse 32

Edelblut also isn't some nobody who just entered politics running as an anti-establishment barnburner, he's been the Education Commissioner since 2017 and clearly has good relationships with GOP leaders/groups across the state. He's pretty conservative but he's also essentially 'inside the tent' and a known quantity. He's also been preparing to run since 2017.

[JMT]

Ayotte in

https://twitter.com/kellyayotte/status/1683451373663277059?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4...

[NewYorkExpress]

Lean R with Ayotte, Safe D with anyone else.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Lean R with Ayotte, Safe D with anyone else.

Why would Ayotte make it Lean R? She’s been out of office for 6 years and lost her last election.

[wbrocks67]

Ayotte will not win this race but her candidacy could force the DGA to divert resources from North Carolina to the relatively expensive Boston media market.

Wait you really think so? Ayotte is a hardliner on abortion, I don't see how this candidacy isn't DOA in the general.

[NewYorkExpress]

Lean R with Ayotte, Safe D with anyone else.

Why would Ayotte make it Lean R? She’s been out of office for 6 years and lost her last election.

The Democrats don't really have a strong candidate as of yet.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Lean R with Ayotte, Safe D with anyone else.

Why would Ayotte make it Lean R? She’s been out of office for 6 years and lost her last election.

The Democrats don't really have a strong candidate as of yet.

What’s wrong with Warmington or Craig?

[NewYorkExpress]

Lean R with Ayotte, Safe D with anyone else.

Why would Ayotte make it Lean R? She’s been out of office for 6 years and lost her last election.

The Democrats don't really have a strong candidate as of yet.

What’s wrong with Warmington or Craig?

Compared to Ayotte, they just aren't strong candidates. That said, they should easily beat Edelblut or any other Republican, and Ayotte is probably an underdog in a Republican Primary right now, given she's more moderate than Sununnu is, so if I had to assign an overall rating, I'd go with the Lean D, on the assumption that Ayotte is going to lose the Republican Primary.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Side note; in some pictures Craig has a growth on her cheek, but I think she had it removed recently. Anyone know more about that?

[Morning in Atlas]

Lean R with Ayotte, Safe D with anyone else.

Why would Ayotte make it Lean R? She’s been out of office for 6 years and lost her last election.

The Democrats don't really have a strong candidate as of yet.

What’s wrong with Warmington or Craig?

Warmington lobbied for Purdue Pharma back in the day and actively defended Oxycodone. As I've said, there's a massive difference between Warren working for corporations or whatever and literally shilling Oxy to the state. This entire thing alone is why I'm voting for Craig