NH-Gov 2024: If You Knew Sununu Like I Knew Sununu

[JMT]

It’s just a hunch, but I actually think Sununu will run for one final term in 2024. I believe he’d be the only NH Governor ever to be elected to a fifth term (if he won, which seems likely if he runs), so why not try to break the record (especially now that he’s not running for President)? Probably doesn’t run again in 2026, though.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://twitter.com/AdamSextonWMUR/status/1669747455464812549?s=20

There is this, for what it is worth.

SawxDem, please correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the fact that Edelblut is considering a run should, alone, be interpreted as a sign that Sununu will retire. My understanding is that Edelblut is not super establishment / a loyal Sununu-ite. He ran against Sununu in the 2016 primary, as a significantly more conservative candidate, and Sununu appointed him to the Ed Commissioner role presumably in part to appease / gain support from the large swath of NH GOP voters who are to Sununu's right.

FWIW, I also think Sununu will probably retire, but I just don't think the potential Edelblut candidacy is necessarily a sign of that.

I'll just chime in here briefly: Edelblut did this same thing when Sununu was considering a Senate run in 2022, visiting local GOP meetings and even hiring some political types to work in his office, but then when Sununu announced he backed off and said nothing more (not that he was overtly saying he would run, he always sort of denied it). I think they don't loop each other in on these things but Edelblut almost certainly will only run if Sununu doesn't, at least that's what recent history suggests. But agreed that Edelblut on maneuvers does not mean much since he never seems to be in Sununu's loop.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D+1

[MargieCat]

I wouldn't be surprised if Kelly Ayotte runs.

Supposedly, she wanted to run for governor in 2022 if Sununu ran for senate, but had no interest in returning to the senate.

Not sure if she would win a primary in todays GOP.

[JMT]

I wouldn't be surprised if Kelly Ayotte runs.

Supposedly, she wanted to run for governor in 2022 if Sununu ran for senate, but had no interest in returning to the senate.

Not sure if she would win a primary in todays GOP.

Agreed, it seems like Ayotte is gearing up to run if Sununu doesn’t. Ayotte would probably be the GOP’s best candidate for the general election if Sununu declines to run, but I’m also not confident she’d win the primary.

[President Johnson]

I wouldn't be surprised if Kelly Ayotte runs.

Supposedly, she wanted to run for governor in 2022 if Sununu ran for senate, but had no interest in returning to the senate.

Not sure if she would win a primary in todays GOP.

Agreed, it seems like Ayotte is gearing up to run if Sununu doesn’t. Ayotte would probably be the GOP’s best candidate for the general election if Sununu declines to run, but I’m also not confident she’d win the primary.

Agreed as well. If she wins the primary though, I'd start out with a Lean Republican rating.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wouldn't be surprised if Kelly Ayotte runs.

Supposedly, she wanted to run for governor in 2022 if Sununu ran for senate, but had no interest in returning to the senate.

Not sure if she would win a primary in todays GOP.

Agreed, it seems like Ayotte is gearing up to run if Sununu doesn’t. Ayotte would probably be the GOP’s best candidate for the general election if Sununu declines to run, but I’m also not confident she’d win the primary.

Agreed as well. If she wins the primary though, I'd start out with a Lean Republican rating.

It's not Lean R until a poll tells us

[Spectator]

I wouldn't be surprised if Kelly Ayotte runs.

Supposedly, she wanted to run for governor in 2022 if Sununu ran for senate, but had no interest in returning to the senate.

Not sure if she would win a primary in todays GOP.

Agreed, it seems like Ayotte is gearing up to run if Sununu doesn’t. Ayotte would probably be the GOP’s best candidate for the general election if Sununu declines to run, but I’m also not confident she’d win the primary.

Agreed as well. If she wins the primary though, I'd start out with a Lean Republican rating.

She won’t have held office for 8 years. I bet most people forgot all about her.

[free my dawg]

SawxDem, please correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the fact that Edelblut is considering a run should, alone, be interpreted as a sign that Sununu will retire. My understanding is that Edelblut is not super establishment / a loyal Sununu-ite. He ran against Sununu in the 2016 primary, as a significantly more conservative candidate, and Sununu appointed him to the Ed Commissioner role presumably in part to appease / gain support from the large swath of NH GOP voters who are to Sununu's right.

FWIW, I also think Sununu will probably retire, but I just don't think the potential Edelblut candidacy is necessarily a sign of that.

Brother Jonathan has explained things well - Edelblut has been "considering a run" since last cycle when Sununu was being lobbied for Senate. It's very well-known that he has higher ambitions but doesn't want to rock the boat to pursue them

---

Of course, I will believe Sununu isn't running when I hear it.

[MargieCat]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1670817483727548417

[Brother Jonathan]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1670817483727548417

That seems high for Ayotte, but I guess it would have been a warning sign for her if she wasn't absolutely dominating polls at this point considering she is almost certain to only lose support over the course of a primary against opponents to her right and will need a strong base to start from. I have a hard time seeing her playing well in a Trump-dominated cycle when she retracted her Trump endorsement in 2016 (which arguably cost her re-election) and hasn't seemed to try to build bridges to that side (which of course would not do her any favors among moderate independents she will then need to win in a general election). It just seems like she might have a difficult time navigating a Trump-dominated environment given her background.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It doesn't matter in a Prez Edays Gov Joyce Craig , NH, NC and WA and DEL goes D while UT, VT, IN, MO are going R, NH is just too blue without Sununu

[2016]

DeSantis, if he gets the Nomination, could potentially tap Chris Sununu as Running Mate!

Yes, NH only has 4 Electoral Votes but if you can combine that with Nevadas 6 Electoral Votes that's 10 Electoral Votes which means he doesn't need the Blue Wall States PA, MI and WI assuming he wins AZ + GA and carries all the States Republicans carried in 2020.

That's 271 Electoral Votes.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Bob Burns (NH-02 nominee in 2022) has indicated he's gearing up for a run.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's Lean D

[Brother Jonathan]

Bob Burns (NH-01 nominee in 2022) has indicated he's gearing up for a run.

(*NH-02) but yeah, actually now looking at his Twitter feed he does seem to be hitting Sununu on just about every front and trying to position himself as more of a "populist" on economic issues, i.e. critiquing Sununu for saying he would be open to raising the retirement age (the clip was from when Sununu was still toying with the Presidential run, for reference). So honestly looks like Burns may have been even thinking of running regardless of what Sununu did.

That being said I don't think he has much of a chance; there is a reason he ran in NH-02 rather than NH-01 even though that's where he lived. Part of it was that, as a former Hillsborough country treasurer, a lot of his voters lived in NH-02, but just as big a chunk basically are in Manchester/Bedford (where he was from) in NH-01. But Burns honestly seems like a second-rate politician who could never hack it in a more competitive, high-profile GOP primary against more serious figures in a more competitive district like NH-01, so he ran in NH-02 instead. But maybe he will prove me wrong.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Bob Burns (NH-01 nominee in 2022) has indicated he's gearing up for a run.

(*NH-02) but yeah, actually now looking at his Twitter feed he does seem to be hitting Sununu on just about every front and trying to position himself as more of a "populist" on economic issues, i.e. critiquing Sununu for saying he would be open to raising the retirement age (the clip was from when Sununu was still toying with the Presidential run, for reference). So honestly looks like Burns may have been even thinking of running regardless of what Sununu did.

That being said I don't think he has much of a chance; there is a reason he ran in NH-02 rather than NH-01 even though that's where he lived. Part of it was that, as a former Hillsborough country treasurer, a lot of his voters lived in NH-02, but just as big a chunk basically are in Manchester/Bedford (where he was from) in NH-01. But Burns honestly seems like a second-rate politician who could never hack it in a more competitive, high-profile GOP primary against more serious figures in a more competitive district like NH-01, so he ran in NH-02 instead. But maybe he will prove me wrong.

To be fair, Burns pretty resoundingly defeated Sununu's handpicked candidate in a congressional district that Sununu literally drew specifically for his candidate. I wouldn't say that he hasn't ran in a tough race.

[Brother Jonathan]

Bob Burns (NH-01 nominee in 2022) has indicated he's gearing up for a run.

(*NH-02) but yeah, actually now looking at his Twitter feed he does seem to be hitting Sununu on just about every front and trying to position himself as more of a "populist" on economic issues, i.e. critiquing Sununu for saying he would be open to raising the retirement age (the clip was from when Sununu was still toying with the Presidential run, for reference). So honestly looks like Burns may have been even thinking of running regardless of what Sununu did.

That being said I don't think he has much of a chance; there is a reason he ran in NH-02 rather than NH-01 even though that's where he lived. Part of it was that, as a former Hillsborough country treasurer, a lot of his voters lived in NH-02, but just as big a chunk basically are in Manchester/Bedford (where he was from) in NH-01. But Burns honestly seems like a second-rate politician who could never hack it in a more competitive, high-profile GOP primary against more serious figures in a more competitive district like NH-01, so he ran in NH-02 instead. But maybe he will prove me wrong.

To be fair, Burns pretty resoundingly defeated Sununu's handpicked candidate in a congressional district that Sununu literally drew specifically for his candidate. I wouldn't say that he hasn't ran in a tough race.

Well that's fair, though two caveats; the Sununu endorsement does not mean much and Hansel was way outside the center of the GOP, as only makes sense as he was the mayor of a very Democratic city.

In any event, Burns would not start as a top-tier contender like Ayotte/Morse/Edleblut, who all have some sort of strength. Though I guess we will see, he has now made quite a name for himself in NH-02 having run a few times and won the primary.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Bob Burns (NH-01 nominee in 2022) has indicated he's gearing up for a run.

(*NH-02) but yeah, actually now looking at his Twitter feed he does seem to be hitting Sununu on just about every front and trying to position himself as more of a "populist" on economic issues, i.e. critiquing Sununu for saying he would be open to raising the retirement age (the clip was from when Sununu was still toying with the Presidential run, for reference). So honestly looks like Burns may have been even thinking of running regardless of what Sununu did.

That being said I don't think he has much of a chance; there is a reason he ran in NH-02 rather than NH-01 even though that's where he lived. Part of it was that, as a former Hillsborough country treasurer, a lot of his voters lived in NH-02, but just as big a chunk basically are in Manchester/Bedford (where he was from) in NH-01. But Burns honestly seems like a second-rate politician who could never hack it in a more competitive, high-profile GOP primary against more serious figures in a more competitive district like NH-01, so he ran in NH-02 instead. But maybe he will prove me wrong.

To be fair, Burns pretty resoundingly defeated Sununu's handpicked candidate in a congressional district that Sununu literally drew specifically for his candidate. I wouldn't say that he hasn't ran in a tough race.

Difference between a tough race and an unwinnable one. Winning as a MAGA populist in New Hampshire is very much the latter.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Bob Burns (NH-01 nominee in 2022) has indicated he's gearing up for a run.

(*NH-02) but yeah, actually now looking at his Twitter feed he does seem to be hitting Sununu on just about every front and trying to position himself as more of a "populist" on economic issues, i.e. critiquing Sununu for saying he would be open to raising the retirement age (the clip was from when Sununu was still toying with the Presidential run, for reference). So honestly looks like Burns may have been even thinking of running regardless of what Sununu did.

That being said I don't think he has much of a chance; there is a reason he ran in NH-02 rather than NH-01 even though that's where he lived. Part of it was that, as a former Hillsborough country treasurer, a lot of his voters lived in NH-02, but just as big a chunk basically are in Manchester/Bedford (where he was from) in NH-01. But Burns honestly seems like a second-rate politician who could never hack it in a more competitive, high-profile GOP primary against more serious figures in a more competitive district like NH-01, so he ran in NH-02 instead. But maybe he will prove me wrong.

To be fair, Burns pretty resoundingly defeated Sununu's handpicked candidate in a congressional district that Sununu literally drew specifically for his candidate. I wouldn't say that he hasn't ran in a tough race.

Difference between a tough race and an unwinnable one. Winning as a MAGA populist in New Hampshire is very much the latter.

I was talking about the primary, not the general.

[smoltchanov]

Bob Burns (NH-01 nominee in 2022) has indicated he's gearing up for a run.

(*NH-02) but yeah, actually now looking at his Twitter feed he does seem to be hitting Sununu on just about every front and trying to position himself as more of a "populist" on economic issues, i.e. critiquing Sununu for saying he would be open to raising the retirement age (the clip was from when Sununu was still toying with the Presidential run, for reference). So honestly looks like Burns may have been even thinking of running regardless of what Sununu did.

That being said I don't think he has much of a chance; there is a reason he ran in NH-02 rather than NH-01 even though that's where he lived. Part of it was that, as a former Hillsborough country treasurer, a lot of his voters lived in NH-02, but just as big a chunk basically are in Manchester/Bedford (where he was from) in NH-01. But Burns honestly seems like a second-rate politician who could never hack it in a more competitive, high-profile GOP primary against more serious figures in a more competitive district like NH-01, so he ran in NH-02 instead. But maybe he will prove me wrong.

To be fair, Burns pretty resoundingly defeated Sununu's handpicked candidate in a congressional district that Sununu literally drew specifically for his candidate. I wouldn't say that he hasn't ran in a tough race.

I wouldn't call 33-30 victory a "resounding one".... BTW - Hansel would be far better Republican candidate in general.... Idiocy of Republican primary voters frequently helps Democrats, though reverse situation happens too...

[NewYorkExpress]

Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig is in.

Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig announced Tuesday that she is running for governor in New Hampshire, shaking up the race in a top Democratic pickup opportunity.

It’s not yet clear if Sununu, who passed on a 2024 presidential run, will run for a fifth two-year term term. Sununu recently told a radio show that he is “not really sure” if he is going to run again but was leaning against it, per the Boston Globe.

Craig, a Democrat, told NBC News in an interview shortly before her official launch that her campaign strategy would not change depending on Sununu's decision.

“This is about Granite Staters. That’s what I’m focusing on,” Craig said. “I’m running to make sure that every community, every hard working family has the opportunity to succeed. We need new leadership in the statehouse that understands the challenges that our local communities are facing.”

Craig will have to compete to win the Democratic nomination. Cinde Warmington, a member of the state’s Executive Council, is also running. Both Democrats currently represent larger chunks of New Hampshire than the state legislators Sununu has defeated in recent elections.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean D

[windjammer]

I wouldn't be surprised if Kelly Ayotte runs.

Supposedly, she wanted to run for governor in 2022 if Sununu ran for senate, but had no interest in returning to the senate.

Not sure if she would win a primary in todays GOP.

Agreed, it seems like Ayotte is gearing up to run if Sununu doesn’t. Ayotte would probably be the GOP’s best candidate for the general election if Sununu declines to run, but I’m also not confident she’d win the primary.

Agreed as well. If she wins the primary though, I'd start out with a Lean Republican rating.

Why? As senator she didn't have any kind of crossover appeal and she ended up losing by 0.1 point, not overperforming Trump in the slightest

[free my dawg]

I wouldn't be surprised if Kelly Ayotte runs.

Supposedly, she wanted to run for governor in 2022 if Sununu ran for senate, but had no interest in returning to the senate.

Not sure if she would win a primary in todays GOP.

Agreed, it seems like Ayotte is gearing up to run if Sununu doesn’t. Ayotte would probably be the GOP’s best candidate for the general election if Sununu declines to run, but I’m also not confident she’d win the primary.

Agreed as well. If she wins the primary though, I'd start out with a Lean Republican rating.

Why? As senator she didn't have any kind of crossover appeal and she ended up losing by 0.1 point, not overperforming Trump in the slightest

She's already a fairly skilled campaigner (60% in a wave year is no fluke) and can appear moderate. I think the concerns about Craig are a bit overblown but Warmington has massive skeletons in her closet (literally worked for Purdue Pharma defending Oxycontin).

There's a huge difference between, say, Warren working as a corporate lawyer 30 years ago and peddling opioids to the state legislature. This is gonna be a huge difference maker in the primary - the ads write themselves! I'm genuinely surprised this didn't come out in 2020.