NH-Gov 2024: If You Knew Sununu Like I Knew Sununu

[Brother Jonathan]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1691465113180766209?s=20

I am personally skeptical about these this far out, but I figured I'd make sure to put these in here.

There are also the results in this poll for both primaries

Dems
Craig- 30%
Warmington- 15.4%
Someone else- 2.3%
Undecided- 52.2%

GOP
Ayotte- 44.8%
Morse- 9.4%
Edelblut- 4.3%
Burns- 2.8%
Someone else- 3.3%
Undecided- 35.3%

So clearly Ayotte is benefitting from strong name recognition at this point. I had expected more undecided this far out, and I'm still thinking she will probably see her support decline as the primary goes on and she has to answer questions about Trump, but it is possible she can find a path through even with that issue in the background.

[free my dawg]

https://twitter.com/norwood270/status/1698341969343258657?t=KYsrU7y38__yRkpQ9nNt...

Edelblut out. Just a very weird decision all along.

Anyway, primary is Titanium Ayotte.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

https://twitter.com/norwood270/status/1698341969343258657?t=KYsrU7y38__yRkpQ9nNt...
Edelblut out. Just a very weird decision all along.

Anyway, primary is Titanium Ayotte.

Smart move - Edelblut has a much harder time winning the general than Ayotte.

[free my dawg]

To her credit she's done a great job consolidating her right flank (or at least its more institutional wing). Burns or whoever the right-wing gadfly is will probably take about 25-30% but it's clear Ayotte has this in the bag.

[Brother Jonathan]

Probably smart for Edelblut. For a long time, I thought he would try and, for lack of a better term, "launder" his political reputation through Sununu and become the 'establishment' pick (or, more likely, a bridge between factions at least) whenever Sununu retired. But if that ever was the plan, it clearly failed and his path to winning was a long one.

Also of course means Ayotte probably doesn't have to play to her right quite as much in the primary, just enough to fend off Burns or someone, which will help her for the general. A rare case where the NHGOP actually has possibly done something right politically.

[SnowLabrador]

Lean/Likely R. New Hampshire might be a blue-leaning state federally, but it's shown that it's more than willing to ticket-split, and Ayotte is a very strong candidate.

[wbrocks67]

Her ads are already terrible (her obsession with MA is disturbing at this point) and also - why does she sound so shaky in this? It sounds like she's about to cry.

https://twitter.com/norwood270/status/1699059412013633652

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean/Likely R. New Hampshire might be a blue-leaning state federally, but it's shown that it's more than willing to ticket-split, and Ayotte is a very strong candidate.

Yeah just like Ayotte beat Hassan in 2016 lol Ayotte may barely lose just like she did in 2016 and it's 14 mnths til VOTING

[NewYorkExpress]

Lean/Likely R. New Hampshire might be a blue-leaning state federally, but it's shown that it's more than willing to ticket-split, and Ayotte is a very strong candidate.

I would say Tilt R, actually. Ayotte is a stronger candidate than her Democratic opponents, but New Hampshire is a more blue state, Biden will likely carry it, and Ayotte has been running a mediocre campaign to this point.

I wouldn't be shocked if I'm moving this to Tilt D or even Lean D after the Democratic Primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NH is late breaking us like 2016/2018 the G and S races don't break till late for Ds so what if Ayotte has the edge it's NH

[wbrocks67]

Why does she keep going with this attack line? It's not only lame, but makes her sound so out of touch.

https://twitter.com/KellyAyotte/status/1705567693351641356

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Why does she keep going with this attack line? It's not only lame, but makes her sound so out of touch.

https://twitter.com/KellyAyotte/status/1705567693351641356

I mean, it’s in touch with the hardcore conservatives who say Taxachusetts unironically

[Epaminondas]

NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL EMERSON

2024 Gubernatorial Election

Kelly Ayotte (R) 46%  
Joyce Craig (D) 37%  
17% undecided

Kelly Ayotte (R) 47%  
Cinde Warmington (D) 34%
19% undecided

I am personally skeptical about these this far out, but I figured I'd make sure to put these in here.

So clearly Ayotte is benefitting from strong name recognition at this point. I had expected more undecided this far out, and I'm still thinking she will probably see her support decline as the primary goes on and she has to answer questions about Trump, but it is possible she can find a path through even with that issue in the background.

So this poll points to out-of-office Ayotte receiving a huge slice of ticket-splitters in 2024, when in 2016, as an incumbent and with the same top of ticket, she ran ahead of Trump by just 0.6%?

There's something fishy here.

[Oryxslayer]

NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL EMERSON

2024 Gubernatorial Election

Kelly Ayotte (R) 46%  
Joyce Craig (D) 37%  
17% undecided

Kelly Ayotte (R) 47%  
Cinde Warmington (D) 34%
19% undecided

I am personally skeptical about these this far out, but I figured I'd make sure to put these in here.

So clearly Ayotte is benefitting from strong name recognition at this point. I had expected more undecided this far out, and I'm still thinking she will probably see her support decline as the primary goes on and she has to answer questions about Trump, but it is possible she can find a path through even with that issue in the background.

So this poll points to out-of-office Ayotte receiving a huge slice of ticket-splitters in 2024, when in 2016, as an incumbent and with the same top of ticket, she ran ahead of Trump by just 0.6%?

There's something fishy here.

Nothing should be surprising when the election is a year away, and she has stellar name recognition from the time in the Senate, whereas the other two may only be known best in their district. A quiet race needs time to reach a boil.

[Brother Jonathan]

NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL EMERSON

2024 Gubernatorial Election

Kelly Ayotte (R) 46%  
Joyce Craig (D) 37%  
17% undecided

Kelly Ayotte (R) 47%  
Cinde Warmington (D) 34%
19% undecided

I am personally skeptical about these this far out, but I figured I'd make sure to put these in here.

So clearly Ayotte is benefitting from strong name recognition at this point. I had expected more undecided this far out, and I'm still thinking she will probably see her support decline as the primary goes on and she has to answer questions about Trump, but it is possible she can find a path through even with that issue in the background.

So this poll points to out-of-office Ayotte receiving a huge slice of ticket-splitters in 2024, when in 2016, as an incumbent and with the same top of ticket, she ran ahead of Trump by just 0.6%?

There's something fishy here.

Nothing should be surprising when the election is a year away, and she has stellar name recognition from the time in the Senate, whereas the other two may only be known best in their district. A quiet race needs time to reach a boil.

Echoing this, I'd caution about drawing much of anything from these, just wanted to put them in as a benchmark. Warmington is really not a state-wide figure as far as I can tell and while Craig may have a slightly stronger profile (being Mayor of the largest city in the state) she is still really not anywhere near as well-known as Ayotte.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ayotte is pro life Moderate R not pro choice, it served Jidd Gregg, he was S and Gov but Abortion is so popular Ayotte lost to Hassan in abortion and a poll showing Ayotte ahead a yr before Eday won't matter in a blue state like NH because vause Hassan was down and still won

[Хahar 🤔]

Why does she keep going with this attack line? It's not only lame, but makes her sound so out of touch.

Whom exactly is she out of touch with? A large portion of New Hampshire's population is in the Boston metro area, and presumably many of the people who live there chose to live in New Hampshire rather than Massachusetts. This is exactly the sort of message that would be appealing to persuadable voters like that. Should she be talking about abortion instead?

[wbrocks67]

Not renewing Planned Parenthood in NH?? She's a goner come the GE

https://twitter.com/norwood270/status/1711409018965795148

[Mr. Matt]

"Something something Planned Parenthood == Massachusetts"

[wbrocks67]

Why does she keep going with this attack line? It's not only lame, but makes her sound so out of touch.

Whom exactly is she out of touch with? A large portion of New Hampshire's population is in the Boston metro area, and presumably many of the people who live there chose to live in New Hampshire rather than Massachusetts. This is exactly the sort of message that would be appealing to persuadable voters like that. Should she be talking about abortion instead?

Choosing to live in NH over MA =/= open to a talking point that consistently vilifies MA. I'm not from either, but it seems weird to me that your literal only campaign point is "stop trying to MA us" when there doesn't really seem to be ill will towards MA. Seems like a really desperate attempt at trying to win a GOP primary, since GOP primary voters are usually the only ones who feel the need to constantly sh*t on blue states just for existing.

Maybe she should... idk, talk about actual issues instead?

[wbrocks67]

Like I said, a really serious operation she has going here. Her literally only focusing on this Massachusetts thing is like a parody at this point.

From what I can tell, MA/NH is not PA/NJ. These people do not care about MA like that.

https://twitter.com/KellyAyotte/status/1712564539336937738

[Oryxslayer]

From what I can tell, MA/NH is not PA/NJ. These people do not care about MA like that.

I mean Ayotte's campaign focus would probably be a legitimate strategy and an ideal one if the Democratic candidate was carpetbagging from Massachusetts. It would go beyond just simple partisan bogey-manning to the actual question that usually drags on carpetbaggers: do you know your supposed constituents? That's why Fetterman's and seemingly Casey's strategy worked/works.

[Spectator]

Not a great look for Craig to be replaced by a Republican.

[Brother Jonathan]

Some thoughts at this point on the GOP Primary:

Ayotte is still clearly the favorite, but Morse is also clearly trying hard to win over Trump, clearly he wants an endorsement. He's spoken at Trump events and he seems to know that he cannot beat Ayotte any other way than being closer to Trump (which I think is true, and reflects the fact that Morse honestly is no slouch when it comes to knowing the internal politics of the GOP, see also how he managed to get the NRA and similar groups on his side in the 2022 Senate primary). That being said Ayotte of course is still easily favored (especially as Trump's star is clearly also fading in the NH GOP) and Morse has yet to really develop a strong profile. You see a few signs and the like but for the most part the activists and local party leadership are with Ayotte. I don't see a Trump endorsement for Morse coming with him so far behind either (or being perceived as so far behind, anyway).

[Brother Jonathan]

We still haven't had any recent polling on the GOP primary, as far as I can tell. The last one was in January, which had Ayotte at 54% and Morse at 22%. I'm guessing Ayotte is probably pretty comfortably situated in the race for right now, but with Trump the presumptive nominee it will be interesting to see how her record on Trump impacts the race (if at all, it could very well not matter in the end). Morse wants it to be an issue, but we will seem if he can actually make it one.

More broadly, Morse is fighting strong headwinds. He has the endorsement of the 603 Alliance, some of the more old Tea Party types, but institutionally even the more right ward elements of the party are backing Ayotte. State House Majority Leader Osborne (a Free Stater, at least in origin), and Deputy Majority Leader Fred Doucette (an early Trump backer who was co-chair of his 2016 and 2020 campaigns and Ramaswamy's 2024 co-chair) are both in Ayotte's camp, for example, but so are more moderate figures, like Judd Gregg and Charlies Bass, to name just two of the most prominent. Really, most of the "leadership-aligned" folks are behind Ayotte as well, and they usually do a lot of work in broader organizing, so that's helpful.

Endorsements aren't everything, but if nothing else it suggests Morse is facing an uphill climb if he wants to peel off of the conservative establishment, who I think recognize they need a credible post-Sununu statewide plan if they want to have any hope of not getting shut out in November. Ultimately it means Morse cannot just run to Ayotte's right and peel voters off, and that if he tries that he will be working with the fringe of the right and that the bulk of the party apparatus will not merely be neutral but actively against him.

In any event, a ways to go before the primary, so we will have to see how fundraising goes and what polling ends up looking like as we move on.