Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread v3 (pg 45 - mass-dropout aftermath)

[John Dule]

Yep.  Biden is over.  Totally incompetent execution.  These are embarrassing results for a campaign that's supposed to be run by some of the best in the biz, and I would never trust a campaign that executes like this to beat Trump.

It's a shame, Biden is a really great guy and would have been a good president.  He has by far the most complete resume and best track record of success in the race, represents a diverse and winning coalition, and holds positions that Democrats can run on and win.  He's been treated like absolute dogsh*t by everyone this campaign, especially the media, and persevered for a year only to implode because the folks running his campaign couldn't drive turnout in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Bloomberg, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar are all good choices for the nominee, in that order IMO.  I'm on board Bloomberg 2020 at this point.

This is so demonstrably untrue on every level; Biden has no track record of electoral success and he clearly does not represent any kind of coalition, let alone a "winning" one. The media has treated him with kid's gloves this entire cycle, as have his fellow candidates (with the notable exception of Harris). The fault here is not with the campaign. It is with the candidate. And the fact that you don't understand that even now does not bode well for your prognostications of "electability" in the future. Biden was an embarrassment from the get-go.

[John Dule]

Biden has no track record of electoral success

I didn't say anywhere that he did, but for the record he won 7 straight senate elections in Delaware, which was a red state for much of that time.

he clearly does not represent any kind of coalition, let alone a "winning" one

Well, now he doesn't because all his support has evaporated.  Previously he had a coalition of working-class voters, black voters, and moderates.  That's a much stronger coalition to carry into a general election than "young voters who only vote when they're sufficiently inspired."

The media has treated him with kid's gloves this entire cycle, as have his fellow candidates (with the notable exception of Harris).

This is an absurd assertion.  Biden has been beaten up on the daily for campaign issues, and also had to deal with the media reporting Trump's assertions in the Ukraine scandal uncritically.  You can just go back in time and look at all the Biden scandals/gaffes that have been breathlessly covered by the media.  Or go read through the previous editions of this megathread.  As for the other candidates treating him with kid's gloves, he is the most attacked candidate with the possible exception of Warren.  I can remember attacks from the likes of Harris, Warren, Swalwell, Castro, Gillibrand, Booker, even Tom Steyer in this last debate.

The fault here is not with the campaign. It is with the candidate. And the fact that you don't understand that even now does not bode well for your prognostications of "electability" in the future. Biden was an embarrassment from the get-go.

Cool.  Who are you supporting now that Andrew Yang dropped out?

Tell me, where did Biden's support "evaporate" to and why did it abandon him? The RCP average had him in a close second in Iowa; he came in fourth. He underperformed his polls in both states so far by more than five points each. Why? It's because his support was always completely shallow. "Electability" is not an issue that people get passionate about. Voters are fickle and they changed their minds to Buttigieg and Klobuchar at the last minute because Biden has always lacked a solid base of support throughout this entire cycle. His numbers were a mile wide and an inch deep. And yes, if the other candidates had taken the gloves off, they would've gotten to the bottom of this-- his aides sequestering him from the media, his belittling of voters asking him questions, his lack of energy and substance, his constant falling back on "Come on! This is not who we are!"-- none of this is indicative of a strong campaign.

And I will still be voting for Andrew Yang. He is the only reason I decided to vote this cycle and none of the other candidates have changed that.

[John Dule]

He's embarrassing himself. He needs to drop out.

[John Dule]

https://twitter.com/NBCNewsPR/status/1228818198386106380

"If any of my supporters did that..."

Dang, now if only he had supporters.

[John Dule]

Biden (potentially) lies about being arrested in South Africa while trying to see Nelson Mandela, a story he had never told for the past 30 years but suddenly brought up as the South Carolina primary came close.

[John Dule]

Biden (potentially) lies about being arrested in South Africa while trying to see Nelson Mandela, a story he had never told for the past 30 years but suddenly brought up as the South Carolina primary came close.

There's no way he wouldn't have mentioned that before if it was real, because, to use his own words, it would be a big f-king deal.

Yeah, Biden has a history of fudging the truth on things like this, but this seems uncharacteristically desperate even for him.

[John Dule]

I can't sleep, so I've been watching some of the morning pundits with their Sunday morning takes about Nevada. It's been fascinating watching their increasing nervousness about Biden's performance in SC.

My question is this:  Has the bar been so lowered over the last month that Biden getting any win in South Carolina, regardless of margin, makes him "The Comeback Kid"?

I've asked it before, but I'm getting the sense that something akin to a 26-24 Biden win is gonna be shouted about as "Biden on the up and up again!". The spin is gonna be dizzying come Sunday morning.

Even on here, the downplaying has been fascinating from "Biden's gonna dominate South Carolina" to "He'll get a solid win" to "He might win by 5%" to "Just a win would be great for him"

I have been thinking about this too (and I also can't sleep). The truth is that most Americans don't keep up with politics, let alone know the predicted margins for any given candidate in any given state. They don't know where Biden is and isn't expected to do well. They will listen to what the media says and base their conclusions on what they're hearing from the pundits. While MSNBC and its ilk will probably spin hard for Biden, I don't think the cable news shows and publications will be able to cover for him if he wins it by less than 5%. I can't imagine they'd be hackish enough to portray that as an absolute win on his part. Well, I guess I've been wrong before.

[John Dule]

Watching Joe's slow and painful collapse has been brutal. The pain will just last longer if he wins SC and is inspired to stay in the race for at least another month. Give it a break, Joe. It's time to call it quits.

To be fair, this was completely unpredictable. Who could have seen this coming? Completely out of left field.

I don't understand why people are arguing that Biden can lose Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada and still be considered the "front-runner" if he pulls off South Carolina. On Atlas, we might understand how the delegates are allocated and how demographics still favor Biden, but that's just among those of us who follow politics religiously. If Biden loses all of the first three contests, the media will say that he's plummeting and people will believe them. To the average voter, Biden's best quality is his "electability." If he doesn't win a state before South Carolina, that might be enough to shatter that perception.

Uh...

[John Dule]

https://twitter.com/CANCEL_SAM/status/1232164550620909568

I like this. I'm going to start referring to Bloomberg as "The Other Biden" from now on.

[John Dule]

Damning article on Biden today in Slate. I can't disagree with their analysis though. The establishment hitched its cart to the wrong horse this time around.

[John Dule]

Damning article on Biden today in Slate. I can't disagree with their analysis though. The establishment hitched its cart to the wrong horse this time around.

This is what pisses me off about him. He kept a lot of good people from surging or running altogether and now he’s not even going to close the deal. It’s infuriating.

I still blame Democratic Primary voters more. Their prioritization of familiarity and name recognition over anything else compelled Biden to run when he polled at the top of preliminary polls. I can't blame him or Sanders for running if they see results like that.

Otherwise I agree with you though, I was always dreading a Biden versus Sanders primary. We had some new, fresh-faced talent running this time that never really got a fair chance.

Another point is that Trump would have faced a nominee 14-23 years younger than him if he were being opposed by anyone of Klobuchar, Harris, Gillibrand, or Booker. That would have provided a sort of generational contrast, and a younger nominee, particularly someone like Booker, would have been able to better make the case to key elements of the Democratic coalition-particularly younger, minority, and female voters-and to infrequent voters. But instead, Trump will be facing a nominee older than himself-whether it be Sanders, Biden, or Bloomberg. Sanders will still be able to energize turnout and rally the base, obviously, but Biden and Bloomberg clearly do not have that ability. And by facing an older nominee, Trump's ability to outcampaign them is enhanced.

Putting Biden in a debate with Trump would be a disaster for the Democrats. Say what you will about Trump, but he's extremely energetic when you get him in front of a camera. That's why, despite being six years his senior, Trump was able to call Jeb Bush "low-energy" in 2016. He is an experienced showman and he knows how to handle a crowd. I cannot imagine Biden and his stumbling, slurred speech pattern keeping up with Trump in any capacity. He would look like a complete geezer next to him.

[John Dule]

Let me tell you, when I was in town we were in town, in a town like places like this. We did the hard work and I did it before they did it, and that's how it got done. I used to come from a small place like this, back when I was a small town like this, and that's why I did it before you remember me. And that's the way it was.

Now listen to what I'm saying. I'm running for mayor, and I don't want anyone to not forget to remember it. I give it to you straight and I got it done. I came out from places like this, towns like these, and when I came back I went here. To this.

Vote for the other me.

[John Dule]

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1234657990189383681?s=20

Kamala endorsement?

I will be f-cking S H O O K

Damn, I wish I didn't have class tomorrow.

[John Dule]

I don't trust anyone who has the same political beliefs as their parents.

[John Dule]

I don't trust anyone who has the same political beliefs as their parents.

then who the hell do you trust?

People whose politics are the complete opposite of the environment in which they were raised; e.g. critical thinkers.

[John Dule]

I don't trust anyone who has the same political beliefs as their parents.

then who the hell do you trust?

People whose politics are the complete opposite of the environment in which they were raised; e.g. critical thinkers.
Obviously thinking critically is an asset, and no one should blindly adopt their parents' beliefs, but nonetheless blindly rebelling against the environment you are brought up in does not make you a critical thinker.

I agree, but I prefer blind rebellion to blind capitulation.

[John Dule]

Ehhh, they're both blind so what's the difference?

On top of that, conformists usually acknowledge that they aren't that smart which is why they just want to follow the crowd because they don't know what to do on their own. From their perspective that does make a certain amount of sense. But contrarians always think they're geniuses when really they aren't any smarter than conformists.

It's much easier to diagnose a problem than it is to truly understand that a system is working properly, or offer solutions as to how a problem should be fixed. People of below-average intelligence are perfectly capable of noticing injustices and inefficiencies in our society. However, it may be harder for them adequately defend the status quo. Being a critic is always easier, and as such, I generally expect rebellious people to get things right more frequently because they've got the easier task. Fixing the problem, however, requires a bit more in-depth thought.

[John Dule]

Watch the first minute of this. Biden has serious memory and speaking issues. Trump will take advantage of these which will be an issue for Biden at the debates.
https://twitter.com/WalkerBragman/status/1234604568316665856

He's also exceptionally thin-skinned. Trump will rile him up without breaking a sweat, and he'll only get more inarticulate the angrier he becomes.