New Hampshire 2020 Redistricting

[Oryxslayer]

The vote failed 177 to 178 for HB52, which is the congressional map

Well then....

[Oryxslayer]

Talk is cheap

Yes, an appearance of a 'reluctantly doing what the party wants' is what this points too, since it allows him to once again do a partisan move while attempting to appear #moderate.

Even if they are vetoed, expect the redrawn 1st to be less Democratic than previously.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/KlandriganUL/status/1504465901994790913

Updates out of the Granite State. Sununu veto confirmed. Between Florida, New Hampshire, and Missouri, R Trifectas have been having a rough go of it this cycle, relatively speaking.

Sununu seems to understand what the GOP does not: breaking the 100-year Rockingham-Belknap-Strafford-Carroll arrangement might be too much political capital and come back to bite them when the dems use the lack of precedent to do their own thing. Even if this arrangement is preserved, you can still be selectively favorable and remove Manchester city and add in some suburbs or rural areas to benefit the NH-01 GOP.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/KlandriganUL/status/1504465901994790913

Updates out of the Granite State. Sununu veto confirmed. Between Florida, New Hampshire, and Missouri, R Trifectas have been having a rough go of it this cycle, relatively speaking.

Sununu seems to understand what the GOP does not: breaking the 100-year Rockingham-Belknap-Strafford-Carroll arrangement might be too much political capital and come back to bite them when the dems use the lack of precedent to do their own thing. Even if this arrangement is preserved, you can still be selectively favorable and remove Manchester city and add in some suburbs or rural areas to benefit the NH-01 GOP.

I think that is at least part of what he is thinking. You can make much less egregious maps that still make NH-01 much more favorable to the GOP while also not making NH-02 totally unwinnable (though it is still a reach for sure). I also think Sununu knows the cost of a veto here is probably lower than if he signs it, since I can see how it might have been a minor issue in the election but now it gets relegated to an intraparty squabble that could possibly be pretty quietly patched up.

Yeah that's the other, personal side of things. Similar to DeSantis, Sununu's strength is his image, only as a supposed moderate rather than a fire-breather like DeSantis. Both saw/are seeing their image tarnished by national forces when they tried to go national: Sununu got tons of hit pieces and saw his approval drop during the Senate speculation period, DeSantis is deemed insufficiently loyal to Trump and an upstart. Both are therefore picking high-profile fights with the amorphous blob of their state party that is easily framed so as to bolster their images.

[Oryxslayer]

I mean on paper, the Sununu plan looks more fair? And honestly gives Pappas a much better chance.

I thought fairness is about partisanship? If NH is a light blue state shouldn't it have 1 R and 1 D?

Theoretically. The question is how to achieve that: two competitive seats or 1 D-leaning and 1 R-leaning. The former has precedent. Really, it's a case of small state's lacking the districts to draw enough seats to get a recognizable outcome. 

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1513580163182780419

Likely a least change map then. Courts rarely make big changes.

I mean in this case least change = less than 5 towns, maybe only 2 changing districts. Would be a repeat of CT.

However:

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1513581263856283652?s=20&t=cAWIQISP...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/norwood270/status/1514656088938921985?s=20&t=g71YirjAxnB...

As noted, court order basically appears to have forced the partisans hands and are now going with whatever can get the votes, so as to avoid the 'horror' of a map where only a single town changes districts.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/norwood270/status/1529893257739743235?s=20&t=7CZ3te2bHnh...

We're gonna get the "a single-town moves between districts map" after all!

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/yeargain/status/1729869225588920784?t=cEE6_wmvyMs14oC-1r7lrw...

This case went under the radar here, but not me. NH State Senate and Board of Executives are fairly extensively but this is New Hampshire. Everything is held together in a shaky manner, and depends upon local split ticketing. So it's no guarantee that both flip even though the State House seems likely to. This case sought to bring some sensibility to the maps and a district distribution more in line with the state's lean, but they failed to convince the court, and more precisely the sununu appointees.

[Oryxslayer]

Does anyone have a link to the new map compared to the old?

There are no new maps being drawn here, but you can compare the old and new senate maps the DRA portal. This being NH everything is delicate when it's the minority GOP drawing the maps, which can be seen how in much the old 2010 gerrymander had collapsed under the Biden coalition. The current map is 12-12 under the 2020 election, but the most Republican district is Trump+14. Thr GOP vote os spead as much as they dare. Everything only really holds up cause the NH GOP brand has been better than the national GOP brand for a while, but there is some evidence the two are getting linked in voters minds.

If you mean the executive council, it has the same fate, only with larger districts. So the Dem vote is harder to Pack. Was gerrymandered last decade. The desire to maintain just 1 Dem pack means all other 4 are Biden-win seats, just very marginal. More marginal than they ended up on the old map in 2020 though. All won by just 52/53% for their GOP candidates in 2022.