New Hampshire 2020 Redistricting

[wbrocks67]

I mean on paper, the Sununu plan looks more fair? And honestly gives Pappas a much better chance.

[lfromnj]

I mean on paper, the Sununu plan looks more fair? And honestly gives Pappas a much better chance.

I thought fairness is about partisanship? If NH is a light blue state shouldn't it have 1 R and 1 D?

[Oryxslayer]

I mean on paper, the Sununu plan looks more fair? And honestly gives Pappas a much better chance.

I thought fairness is about partisanship? If NH is a light blue state shouldn't it have 1 R and 1 D?

Theoretically. The question is how to achieve that: two competitive seats or 1 D-leaning and 1 R-leaning. The former has precedent. Really, it's a case of small state's lacking the districts to draw enough seats to get a recognizable outcome. 

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I mean on paper, the Sununu plan looks more fair? And honestly gives Pappas a much better chance.

I thought fairness is about partisanship? If NH is a light blue state shouldn't it have 1 R and 1 D?

Fairness is about partisanship in red states. In blue states, it only matters if geography favors Republicans.

[wbrocks67]

I mean on paper, the Sununu plan looks more fair? And honestly gives Pappas a much better chance.

I thought fairness is about partisanship? If NH is a light blue state shouldn't it have 1 R and 1 D?

Biden NH by almost 8, so isn't the new districts like Biden +4 and Biden +11? That's basically right in the middle of the result.

[lfromnj]

I mean on paper, the Sununu plan looks more fair? And honestly gives Pappas a much better chance.

I thought fairness is about partisanship? If NH is a light blue state shouldn't it have 1 R and 1 D?

Biden NH by almost 8, so isn't the new districts like Biden +4 and Biden +11? That's basically right in the middle of the result.

Any map would be like that. Not sure why PA has to be 9 Biden seats but 8 Trump but now somehow 2 Biden and 0 Trump seats in NH is fair.(It is fair by my rules but I am calling you out)

[Sol]

I mean on paper, the Sununu plan looks more fair? And honestly gives Pappas a much better chance.

I thought fairness is about partisanship? If NH is a light blue state shouldn't it have 1 R and 1 D?

Biden NH by almost 8, so isn't the new districts like Biden +4 and Biden +11? That's basically right in the middle of the result.

Any map would be like that. Not sure why PA has to be 9 Biden seats but 8 Trump but now somehow 2 Biden and 0 Trump seats in NH is fair.(It is fair by my rules but I am calling you out)

+1000%

If you support proportionality in redistricting you should support the Sununu plan at the minimum, and perhaps even the legislative plan since it locks in that proportionality more strongly.

[lfromnj]

I mean on paper, the Sununu plan looks more fair? And honestly gives Pappas a much better chance.

I thought fairness is about partisanship? If NH is a light blue state shouldn't it have 1 R and 1 D?

Biden NH by almost 8, so isn't the new districts like Biden +4 and Biden +11? That's basically right in the middle of the result.

Any map would be like that. Not sure why PA has to be 9 Biden seats but 8 Trump but now somehow 2 Biden and 0 Trump seats in NH is fair.(It is fair by my rules but I am calling you out)

+1000%

If you support proportionality in redistricting you should support the Sununu plan at the minimum, and perhaps even the legislative plan since it locks in that proportionality more strongly.

At the very least a plan like this is what Wbrocks should be supporting. Still a bad plan but atleast less ugly.

[Schiff for Senate]

I mean on paper, the Sununu plan looks more fair? And honestly gives Pappas a much better chance.

I thought fairness is about partisanship? If NH is a light blue state shouldn't it have 1 R and 1 D?

Theoretically. The question is how to achieve that: two competitive seats or 1 D-leaning and 1 R-leaning. The former has precedent. Really, it's a case of small state's lacking the districts to draw enough seats to get a recognizable outcome. 

The bolded is key. If we can't agree whether 1 blueish and 1 reddish seat is fair or two slightly blueish seats are fair, let's go with a least change map, the type of map that has endured since the 1800s (when political coalitions/geography in NH were obviously very different). This map has existed till now and a 1-1 is, in fact, possible for the GOP under it. Ifromnj knows fully well that what the NHGOP is trying to do is get themselves one solid seat, having realized Pappas will make it difficult to get his seat unless they redden it up: and in the process, they are proposing unprecedented maps that unnecessarily break starkly from the maps that have been used for a very long time. It's not like there's been any wild population changes that a lot of changes are necessary to maintain equal population - the Democratic map has a very small deviation, and it moves one (1) town, a purely nonpartisan and least change map.

[lfromnj]

I mean on paper, the Sununu plan looks more fair? And honestly gives Pappas a much better chance.

I thought fairness is about partisanship? If NH is a light blue state shouldn't it have 1 R and 1 D?

Theoretically. The question is how to achieve that: two competitive seats or 1 D-leaning and 1 R-leaning. The former has precedent. Really, it's a case of small state's lacking the districts to draw enough seats to get a recognizable outcome.  

The bolded is key. If we can't agree whether 1 blueish and 1 reddish seat is fair or two slightly blueish seats are fair, let's go with a least change map, the type of map that has endured since the 1800s (when political coalitions/geography in NH were obviously very different). This map has existed till now and a 1-1 is, in fact, possible for the GOP under it. Ifromnj knows fully well that what the NHGOP is trying to do is get themselves one solid seat, having realized Pappas will make it difficult to get his seat unless they redden it up: and in the process, they are proposing unprecedented maps that unnecessarily break starkly from the maps that have been used for a very long time. It's not like there's been any wild population changes that a lot of changes are necessary to maintain equal population - the Democratic map has a very small deviation, and it moves one (1) town, a purely nonpartisan and least change map.

Of course I know what the NH GOP is trying to do. It's a gerrymander to get 1 seat as R leaning as possible.
Of course it is, but Wbrocks also defended the fact the PA map splits Berks to prevent any competitive SEPA seat other than Fitzpatrick's. So its not really about competition either for him.

Also IMO the current set up is kinda weird and IIRC from anti Catholic sentiment similar to Rhode Islands map which everyone agrees is bad.

[Schiff for Senate]

I mean on paper, the Sununu plan looks more fair? And honestly gives Pappas a much better chance.

I thought fairness is about partisanship? If NH is a light blue state shouldn't it have 1 R and 1 D?

Theoretically. The question is how to achieve that: two competitive seats or 1 D-leaning and 1 R-leaning. The former has precedent. Really, it's a case of small state's lacking the districts to draw enough seats to get a recognizable outcome.  

The bolded is key. If we can't agree whether 1 blueish and 1 reddish seat is fair or two slightly blueish seats are fair, let's go with a least change map, the type of map that has endured since the 1800s (when political coalitions/geography in NH were obviously very different). This map has existed till now and a 1-1 is, in fact, possible for the GOP under it. Ifromnj knows fully well that what the NHGOP is trying to do is get themselves one solid seat, having realized Pappas will make it difficult to get his seat unless they redden it up: and in the process, they are proposing unprecedented maps that unnecessarily break starkly from the maps that have been used for a very long time. It's not like there's been any wild population changes that a lot of changes are necessary to maintain equal population - the Democratic map has a very small deviation, and it moves one (1) town, a purely nonpartisan and least change map.

Of course I know what the NH GOP is trying to do. It's a gerrymander to get 1 seat as R leaning as possible.
Of course it is, but Wbrocks also defended the fact the PA map splits Berks to prevent any competitive SEPA seat other than Fitzpatrick's. So its not really about competition either for him.

Also IMO the current set up is kinda weird and IIRC from anti Catholic sentiment similar to Rhode Islands map which everyone agrees is bad.

I understood the first paragraph, but no offense, the second paragraph was utterly incomprehensible to me. Anti-Catholic sentiment? Rhode Island? What??

[lfromnj]

I mean on paper, the Sununu plan looks more fair? And honestly gives Pappas a much better chance.

I thought fairness is about partisanship? If NH is a light blue state shouldn't it have 1 R and 1 D?

Theoretically. The question is how to achieve that: two competitive seats or 1 D-leaning and 1 R-leaning. The former has precedent. Really, it's a case of small state's lacking the districts to draw enough seats to get a recognizable outcome.  

The bolded is key. If we can't agree whether 1 blueish and 1 reddish seat is fair or two slightly blueish seats are fair, let's go with a least change map, the type of map that has endured since the 1800s (when political coalitions/geography in NH were obviously very different). This map has existed till now and a 1-1 is, in fact, possible for the GOP under it. Ifromnj knows fully well that what the NHGOP is trying to do is get themselves one solid seat, having realized Pappas will make it difficult to get his seat unless they redden it up: and in the process, they are proposing unprecedented maps that unnecessarily break starkly from the maps that have been used for a very long time. It's not like there's been any wild population changes that a lot of changes are necessary to maintain equal population - the Democratic map has a very small deviation, and it moves one (1) town, a purely nonpartisan and least change map.

Of course I know what the NH GOP is trying to do. It's a gerrymander to get 1 seat as R leaning as possible.
Of course it is, but Wbrocks also defended the fact the PA map splits Berks to prevent any competitive SEPA seat other than Fitzpatrick's. So its not really about competition either for him.

Also IMO the current set up is kinda weird and IIRC from anti Catholic sentiment similar to Rhode Islands map which everyone agrees is bad.

I understood the first paragraph, but no offense, the second paragraph was utterly incomprehensible to me. Anti-Catholic sentiment? Rhode Island? What??

You said the map hasn't been changed for a very long time. IIRC the origins for the map was to split up the Catholic(Democratic) vote just like how Rhode Island's maps have split up Providence for decades. Everyone agrees that Rhode Island's map is pretty bad.

[Gracile]

I mean on paper, the Sununu plan looks more fair? And honestly gives Pappas a much better chance.

I thought fairness is about partisanship? If NH is a light blue state shouldn't it have 1 R and 1 D?

Theoretically. The question is how to achieve that: two competitive seats or 1 D-leaning and 1 R-leaning. The former has precedent. Really, it's a case of small state's lacking the districts to draw enough seats to get a recognizable outcome. 

The bolded is key. If we can't agree whether 1 blueish and 1 reddish seat is fair or two slightly blueish seats are fair, let's go with a least change map, the type of map that has endured since the 1800s (when political coalitions/geography in NH were obviously very different). This map has existed till now and a 1-1 is, in fact, possible for the GOP under it. Ifromnj knows fully well that what the NHGOP is trying to do is get themselves one solid seat, having realized Pappas will make it difficult to get his seat unless they redden it up: and in the process, they are proposing unprecedented maps that unnecessarily break starkly from the maps that have been used for a very long time. It's not like there's been any wild population changes that a lot of changes are necessary to maintain equal population - the Democratic map has a very small deviation, and it moves one (1) town, a purely nonpartisan and least change map.

Of course I know what the NH GOP is trying to do. It's a gerrymander to get 1 seat as R leaning as possible.
Of course it is, but Wbrocks also defended the fact the PA map splits Berks to prevent any competitive SEPA seat other than Fitzpatrick's. So its not really about competition either for him.

Also IMO the current set up is kinda weird and IIRC from anti Catholic sentiment similar to Rhode Islands map which everyone agrees is bad.

I understood the first paragraph, but no offense, the second paragraph was utterly incomprehensible to me. Anti-Catholic sentiment? Rhode Island? What??

Historically, the 1st and 2nd districts split up Nashua and Manchester to dilute the influence of working-class Irish Catholic voters. This was obviously truer in the early 20th century than it is today.

[Schiff for Senate]

I mean on paper, the Sununu plan looks more fair? And honestly gives Pappas a much better chance.

I thought fairness is about partisanship? If NH is a light blue state shouldn't it have 1 R and 1 D?

Theoretically. The question is how to achieve that: two competitive seats or 1 D-leaning and 1 R-leaning. The former has precedent. Really, it's a case of small state's lacking the districts to draw enough seats to get a recognizable outcome. 

The bolded is key. If we can't agree whether 1 blueish and 1 reddish seat is fair or two slightly blueish seats are fair, let's go with a least change map, the type of map that has endured since the 1800s (when political coalitions/geography in NH were obviously very different). This map has existed till now and a 1-1 is, in fact, possible for the GOP under it. Ifromnj knows fully well that what the NHGOP is trying to do is get themselves one solid seat, having realized Pappas will make it difficult to get his seat unless they redden it up: and in the process, they are proposing unprecedented maps that unnecessarily break starkly from the maps that have been used for a very long time. It's not like there's been any wild population changes that a lot of changes are necessary to maintain equal population - the Democratic map has a very small deviation, and it moves one (1) town, a purely nonpartisan and least change map.

Of course I know what the NH GOP is trying to do. It's a gerrymander to get 1 seat as R leaning as possible.
Of course it is, but Wbrocks also defended the fact the PA map splits Berks to prevent any competitive SEPA seat other than Fitzpatrick's. So its not really about competition either for him.

Also IMO the current set up is kinda weird and IIRC from anti Catholic sentiment similar to Rhode Islands map which everyone agrees is bad.

I understood the first paragraph, but no offense, the second paragraph was utterly incomprehensible to me. Anti-Catholic sentiment? Rhode Island? What??

Historically, the 1st and 2nd districts split up Nashua and Manchester to dilute the influence of working-class Irish Catholic voters. This was obviously truer in the early 20th century than it is today.

I mean on paper, the Sununu plan looks more fair? And honestly gives Pappas a much better chance.

I thought fairness is about partisanship? If NH is a light blue state shouldn't it have 1 R and 1 D?

Theoretically. The question is how to achieve that: two competitive seats or 1 D-leaning and 1 R-leaning. The former has precedent. Really, it's a case of small state's lacking the districts to draw enough seats to get a recognizable outcome. 

The bolded is key. If we can't agree whether 1 blueish and 1 reddish seat is fair or two slightly blueish seats are fair, let's go with a least change map, the type of map that has endured since the 1800s (when political coalitions/geography in NH were obviously very different). This map has existed till now and a 1-1 is, in fact, possible for the GOP under it. Ifromnj knows fully well that what the NHGOP is trying to do is get themselves one solid seat, having realized Pappas will make it difficult to get his seat unless they redden it up: and in the process, they are proposing unprecedented maps that unnecessarily break starkly from the maps that have been used for a very long time. It's not like there's been any wild population changes that a lot of changes are necessary to maintain equal population - the Democratic map has a very small deviation, and it moves one (1) town, a purely nonpartisan and least change map.

Of course I know what the NH GOP is trying to do. It's a gerrymander to get 1 seat as R leaning as possible.
Of course it is, but Wbrocks also defended the fact the PA map splits Berks to prevent any competitive SEPA seat other than Fitzpatrick's. So its not really about competition either for him.

Also IMO the current set up is kinda weird and IIRC from anti Catholic sentiment similar to Rhode Islands map which everyone agrees is bad.

I understood the first paragraph, but no offense, the second paragraph was utterly incomprehensible to me. Anti-Catholic sentiment? Rhode Island? What??

You said the map hasn't been changed for a very long time. IIRC the origins for the map was to split up the Catholic(Democratic) vote just like how Rhode Island's maps have split up Providence for decades. Everyone agrees that Rhode Island's map is pretty bad.

Oh...thank you for educating me. Well, nonetheless, at this point I don't think keeping the old maps is being done with malignant or anti-Catholic sentiment, and what the GOP is doing is a blatant gerrymander. I do think, however, that Sununu's map might be a reasonable compromise. Either the Democratic least-change map or the Sununu compromise map is fine, just not the GOP gerrymander.

[Brother Jonathan]

So the Sununu map is still making CD 1 more Republican by trading out some blue towns in northern Carroll county and some blue trending suburbs/exurbs for more reliably red ones in southern Rockingham. That being said it's not an awful map, and you can make a decent argument for it on competitiveness grounds.

This is better for the GOP than the least change map, but as always never underestimate the willingness of the State House GOP backbenches to lose a mile rather than give an inch. The leadership is on the same page as Sununu this time at least, so more likely than not it passes, but I will be interested to see if there are many defections (I expect some at least).

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1513580163182780419

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1513580163182780419

Likely a least change map then. Courts rarely make big changes.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1513580163182780419

Likely a least change map then. Courts rarely make big changes.

I mean in this case least change = less than 5 towns, maybe only 2 changing districts. Would be a repeat of CT.

However:

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1513581263856283652?s=20&t=cAWIQISP...

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1513580163182780419

Likely a least change map then. Courts rarely make big changes.

Especially with like 150 year precedent

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1513580163182780419

Likely a least change map then. Courts rarely make big changes.

I mean in this case least change = less than 5 towns, maybe only 2 changing districts. Would be a repeat of CT.

However:

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1513581263856283652?s=20&t=cAWIQISP...

Glorious news!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1513580163182780419

Likely a least change map then. Courts rarely make big changes.

I mean in this case least change = less than 5 towns, maybe only 2 changing districts. Would be a repeat of CT.

However:

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1513581263856283652?s=20&t=cAWIQISP...

Glorious news!

Glorious news indeed!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Kinda hoping they change the current map into a suburban Boston seat and a rest of state seat.

No matter what, both seats will likely be simillar in partisanship so not too much at stake from a partisanship perspective

[Nyvin]

The NH democratic plan literally moved 1 town (Hampstead) from one district to the other,  I don't see why the court wouldn't put that map into place.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/norwood270/status/1514656088938921985?s=20&t=g71YirjAxnB...

As noted, court order basically appears to have forced the partisans hands and are now going with whatever can get the votes, so as to avoid the 'horror' of a map where only a single town changes districts.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/KlandriganUL/status/1517277003769991173