Spanish elections and politics

[Mike88]

Worth noting that he doesn't even have the support of the Spanish Congress! A Cs proposal to signal support towards the government and the judiciary failed yesterday after PSOE unexpectedly voted against, claiming the proposal should also signal support to negotiate with the Catalan government.

In the end only PP and Cs voted in favour. Canarian nationalists and 4 PSOE defectors abstained and everyone else voted against.

From what i read in Spanish media, PSOE is deeply divided with the anti-Sanchéz wing in favour of supporting Rajoy and Rivera while the pró-Sanchéz wing doesn't know what to do. This PSOE indecision is very bad, IMO. Polls are suggesting the pro-Independence parties are losing steam but, i think, both sides have become to extreme. Nonetheless, i can't understand why the Catalan government is going ahead with this after the big cities (almost half of the population) said they wouldn't support the referendum and after the EU said that an independent Catalonia would be kicked out from the Union and go back to the end of line together with the former Yugoslavian republics.

[Zinneke]

Worth noting that he doesn't even have the support of the Spanish Congress! A Cs proposal to signal support towards the government and the judiciary failed yesterday after PSOE unexpectedly voted against, claiming the proposal should also signal support to negotiate with the Catalan government.

In the end only PP and Cs voted in favour. Canarian nationalists and 4 PSOE defectors abstained and everyone else voted against.

From what i read in Spanish media, PSOE is deeply divided with the anti-Sanchéz wing in favour of supporting Rajoy and Rivera while the pró-Sanchéz wing doesn't know what to do. This PSOE indecision is very bad, IMO. Polls are suggesting the pro-Independence parties are losing steam but, i think, both sides have become to extreme. Nonetheless, i can't understand why the Catalan government is going ahead with this after the big cities (almost half of the population) said they wouldn't support the referendum and after the EU said that an independent Catalonia would be kicked out from the Union and go back to the end of line together with the former Yugoslavian republics.

It seems to me like the ultimate No True Scotsman dilemma - on both sides. You say the polls are showing the  nationalists down but their score combined with CUP is stable and as tack50 said the main loser in PDECat to ERC. If Junqueres backs down now he will see support fade away to the CUP as the last resort of the seperatist. And that's something not many in the Catalan political and economic upper to middle classes want.

Meanwhile in Madrid it's also a question of who is willing to do the most to keep Spain together. Sanchez and Iglesias will be marginalised or smeared in all this.

[Nanwe]

Looks like Rajoy was the first to lose his marbles. 13 arrests in the Catalan fiscal ministry and confiscation of 10 million ballots...by the Guardia Civil.

Not quite. The arrests and registers carried out today are unrelated to the referendum, and instead have to do with a corruption case dating back to January involving Santi Vila. Indeed, they were ordered by a judge independently of the government (the govt. can pressure fiscales, but hardly the judges)

The ballots is another story, of course.

[Nanwe]

Worth noting that he doesn't even have the support of the Spanish Congress! A Cs proposal to signal support towards the government and the judiciary failed yesterday after PSOE unexpectedly voted against, claiming the proposal should also signal support to negotiate with the Catalan government.

In the end only PP and Cs voted in favour. Canarian nationalists and 4 PSOE defectors abstained and everyone else voted against.

From what i read in Spanish media, PSOE is deeply divided with the anti-Sanchéz wing in favour of supporting Rajoy and Rivera while the pró-Sanchéz wing doesn't know what to do. This PSOE indecision is very bad, IMO. Polls are suggesting the pro-Independence parties are losing steam but, i think, both sides have become to extreme. Nonetheless, i can't understand why the Catalan government is going ahead with this after the big cities (almost half of the population) said they wouldn't support the referendum and after the EU said that an independent Catalonia would be kicked out from the Union and go back to the end of line together with the former Yugoslavian republics.

I think, cynically, because it will play to the victimism of the Catalan völkisch cause and lend them further support as "underdogs" in the upcoming regional elections. Also I feel like the acceleration of events has to do with the bad showing in the polls recently. Indeed, just today a poll was released showing that ERC+PDECAT+CUP lacked a majority.

[Zinneke]

Looks like Rajoy was the first to lose his marbles. 13 arrests in the Catalan fiscal ministry and confiscation of 10 million ballots...by the Guardia Civil.

Not quite. The arrests and registers carried out today are unrelated to the referendum, and instead have to do with a corruption case dating back to January involving Santi Vila. Indeed, they were ordered by a judge independently of the government (the govt. can pressure fiscales, but hardly the judges)

The ballots is another story, of course.

Can you provide a source about the nature of the arrests, because Vanguardia initially said it was about using public funds to fund an illegal referendum, hence the ballot burning. Here's one from El Pais saying the same :

https://elpais.com/ccaa/2017/09/20/catalunya/1505885372_273143.html

Also, why was the Guardía Civil involved and not the Mossos?  Are fiscal matters not a competence of theirs?  I thought the GC was only involved in border control in Catalunya.

Genuine questions not meant in harm.

[mgop]

who doesn't love good old western double standards. when croatia and other yugoslavian republics wanted independance that was ok, when catalonia want just one fair referendum that's forbidden. kosovo and south sudan can, palestine, kurdistan, srpska, flanders and crimea can't. timor under capitalist indonesia can't but after cold war of course they can...

[Zinneke]

who doesn't love good old western double standards. when croatia and other yugoslavian republics wanted independance that was ok, when catalonia want just one fair referendum that's forbidden. kosovo and south sudan can, palestine, kurdistan, srpska, flanders and crimea can't. timor under capitalist indonesia can't but after cold war of course they can...

You are right in some respects regarding the hypocrisy of self-determination.
The logic of most of the "Western" recognitions you mention was that the incumbent was using excessive and disproportionate repression against those nations, which usually meant a UN-led mission that first required independence of the substate actor.

The Spanish state argues that Catalonia already has self-determination. And Spain does not recognise Kosovo either. So I'm not sure that line of argumentation gets you anywhere with the Spanish state.

[parochial boy]

who doesn't love good old western double standards. when croatia and other yugoslavian republics wanted independance that was ok, when catalonia want just one fair referendum that's forbidden. kosovo and south sudan can, palestine, kurdistan, srpska, flanders and crimea can't. timor under capitalist indonesia can't but after cold war of course they can...

Why is this is specifically a western hypocrisy? Morocco recognises the state of Palestine, but mentione Western Sahara...

Beyond that, Coloniac is pretty much spot on - and there is always the fact that, every country has its own interests, and ideological biases, in those sorts of questions.

[Former President tack50]

The Spanish government has delayed the 2018 budget. That means they won't be able to pass it on time, instead having to pass it late like they did for last year. The government expects to pass it some time in January.

The reason? They have been unable to reach an agreement with the Basque PNV. The reason is probably Catalonia at least partially, PNV has been a big defender of a referendum agreed between the Spanish and Catalan governments. They also threatened the government with exactly this last week. According to them because of the dire situation in Catalonia it's no time to begin budget negotiations.

I do think PNV will bulge after October though. I would expect budget negotiations to start in late October with the budget being passed late in January or December (the budget has to start being drafted at least 3 months before January 1st in order not to be a late budget I think).

An early election in 2018 is a possibility, particularly if Rajoy thinks PP will be benefited (a la May 2017). I think it's unlikely though, their 2016 result was probably as good as it can get under the current 4 party system.

http://www.20minutos.es/noticia/3145260/0/gobierno-prorroga-presupuestos-generales-2018/

[Former President tack50]

D-Day is here people. Today is the date for the unilateral Catalan independence referendum. I will say that it's being a sh**tshow on both sides.

The referendum has only barely more credibilty than a North Korean election. There's no functioning census even though the pro-independence side illegally used one, many polling places have been closed, the telecommunications system to count the votes is down, in many places people are voting without envelopes, etc. Even the 2014 one was better organized.

On the other hand the Spanish government's repression has just made things worse. Why they didn't just allow them to vote I won't understand. Just say that the referendum is illegal and boycott it and that's it. They already did that in 2014, they could just have done it again!

My only guess is that Rajoy wanted to look "tough on Catalonia" and that there are a lot of critics from his right asking for a tougher response, but still.

[mvd10]

D-Day is here people. Today is the date for the unilateral Catalan independence referendum. I will say that it's being a sh**tshow on both sides.

The referendum has only barely more credibilty than a North Korean election. There's no functioning census even though the pro-independence side illegally used one, many polling places have been closed, the telecommunications system to count the votes is down, in many places people are voting without envelopes, etc. Even the 2014 one was better organized.

On the other hand the Spanish government's repression has just made things worse. Why they didn't just allow them to vote I won't understand. Just say that the referendum is illegal and boycott it and that's it. They already did that in 2014, they could just have done it again!

My only guess is that Rajoy wanted to look "tough on Catalonia" and that there are a lot of critics from his right asking for a tougher response, but still.

What more do they want Rajoy to do? They aren't actually advocating for killing people right?

[Mike88]

D-Day is here people. Today is the date for the unilateral Catalan independence referendum. I will say that it's being a sh**tshow on both sides.

The referendum has only barely more credibilty than a North Korean election. There's no functioning census even though the pro-independence side illegally used one, many polling places have been closed, the telecommunications system to count the votes is down, in many places people are voting without envelopes, etc. Even the 2014 one was better organized.

On the other hand the Spanish government's repression has just made things worse. Why they didn't just allow them to vote I won't understand. Just say that the referendum is illegal and boycott it and that's it. They already did that in 2014, they could just have done it again!

My only guess is that Rajoy wanted to look "tough on Catalonia" and that there are a lot of critics from his right asking for a tougher response, but still.

We can argue the police response. In my opinion, i would had left them vote but, honestly, i was expecting clashes with the police. What i was not expecting, was people using their kids as somekind of shield or something. That was really bad. But you're right, this is sh**show.

[Former President tack50]

D-Day is here people. Today is the date for the unilateral Catalan independence referendum. I will say that it's being a sh**tshow on both sides.

The referendum has only barely more credibilty than a North Korean election. There's no functioning census even though the pro-independence side illegally used one, many polling places have been closed, the telecommunications system to count the votes is down, in many places people are voting without envelopes, etc. Even the 2014 one was better organized.

On the other hand the Spanish government's repression has just made things worse. Why they didn't just allow them to vote I won't understand. Just say that the referendum is illegal and boycott it and that's it. They already did that in 2014, they could just have done it again!

My only guess is that Rajoy wanted to look "tough on Catalonia" and that there are a lot of critics from his right asking for a tougher response, but still.

What more do they want Rajoy to do? They aren't actually advocating for killing people right?

No, of course not. I think the people asking for a harsher response basically want Rajoy to openly activate article 155 and essencially dissolve Catalonia's autonomous government, and maybe send Puigdemont and his cabinet to prison while they are at it.

[mvd10]

Yeah, that makes more sense. Honestly, this is a total sh**show, I hope it will be over soon.

[Zinneke]

Yep that police response is exactly how to turn the swing voters and the younger generations towards independence. First thoughts are getting over with it, though. Really sad...

[TheSaint250]

Is the whole situation as bad as the Catalan government says it is? From what I can tell, it is, but since I don’t live in Spain, I’m not 100% sure.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Is the whole situation as bad as the Catalan government says it is? From what I can tell, it is, but since I don’t live in Spain, I’m not 100% sure.

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-41459688/police-use-batons-on-crowd-in-barcelona

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41461032

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/oct/01/catalan-independence-referendum-spain-catalonia-vote-live

[TheSaint250]

Is the whole situation as bad as the Catalan government says it is? From what I can tell, it is, but since I don’t live in Spain, I’m not 100% sure.

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-41459688/police-use-batons-on-crowd-in-barcelona

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41461032

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/oct/01/catalan-independence-referendum-spain-catalonia-vote-live

Ok thank you

This whole situation is horrible, and at this point, I find it hard to see how the Catalans won’t vote against secession from the federal government.

[Former President tack50]

Is the whole situation as bad as the Catalan government says it is? From what I can tell, it is, but since I don’t live in Spain, I’m not 100% sure.

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-41459688/police-use-batons-on-crowd-in-barcelona

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41461032

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/oct/01/catalan-independence-referendum-spain-catalonia-vote-live

Ok thank you

This whole situation is horrible, and at this point, I find it hard to see how the Catalans won’t vote against secession from the federal government.

Well, they won't vote. This referendum is basically worthless and the Spanish government won't give them one. (unless Podemos+nationalists somehow get an absolute majority, but lol)

But yeah, this will just embolden the pro-independence side. I wouldn't be surprised if independence support increases quite a bit after this.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Rajoy and his team coped with that issue probably in the most stupid way it was possible.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Is the whole situation as bad as the Catalan government says it is? From what I can tell, it is, but since I don’t live in Spain, I’m not 100% sure.

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-41459688/police-use-batons-on-crowd-in-barcelona

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41461032

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/oct/01/catalan-independence-referendum-spain-catalonia-vote-live

Ok thank you

This whole situation is horrible, and at this point, I find it hard to see how the Catalans won’t vote against secession from the federal government.

If you have an extreme problem with a regional government, fire all the local politicians and replace them BEFORE VOTING DAY ARRIVES. YOU ABSOLUTELY DON'T BEAT INDIVIDUAL VOTERS WITH BATONS BECAUSE YOU FAILED AT OPTION #1. sh**tTY SPANISH GOVERNMENT.

[Panhandle Progressive]

https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/914481196167516160

The Spanish police are now beating up Catalan firefighters. This is an absolute shocker.

[Panhandle Progressive]

https://twitter.com/bcn_ajuntament/status/914499492992442369

"All police operations against us, a people calling for rights and freedoms, must stop."

[parochial boy]

Genuinely pathetic exercise across the board, but the Spanish government and Rajoy have managed to completely outdo the nationalists. Spain is looking like a joke country today.

[Panhandle Progressive]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DLEaENVX0AA5IaI.jpg

Powerful image of firefighters acting as human shield to protect Catalonian people from Spanish police.