2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[lilTommy]

Anyone have the figures of how many mail-in ballots there are?

What is the likelihood of these mail-in's flipping seats?

[lilTommy]

Any ideas as to why the NDP continues to underperform in urban centers like downtown Toronto, Vancouver, and even Halifax?

Also incredibly disappointing that the NDP cannot make any headway into the 905 areas like Brampton where Singh made inroads as an Ontario MPP. Is the globalization and polarization of politics making it too difficult for voters to consider options besides the Liberals and Conservatives?

Finally, does anyone know where there's a list of ridings which switched parties? It seems like there wasn't much change, but I'm curious to know about the swings and shifts in each province as there does seem to have been substantial churn across the regions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_of_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election - so far wiki is showing each riding with the incumbent, the winner in 2021 and the blanks are the too close to call. Not the best way to view the list, but its a list.

[lilTommy]

How did Nikki Ashton do?

Ashton won 43% of the vote, down from 50% in 2019.
LPC vote was flat, 25% vs 23% in 2019
CPC vote was up more, 24% vs 20% in 2019

[lilTommy]

Singh should of course go, after two disastrous elections in a row now, but there is nothing NDP voters love more than losing while feeling superior about themselves, so they will of course keep him.

This is right. On CBC the NDP woman they had was talking about how proud everyone was of Jagmeet; it doesn't matter whether they won or not, what was important was that they made such a great stand by making the turban man their leader. It's the attitude that comes from being in permanent opposition. Nobody got into the NDP because they wanted to win, so nobody can even imagine what winning would be like. It's not surprising that Rachel Notley has tended to keep her distance from the federal NDP, because she is a winner and they are losers.

Speaking as the person who first sounded a "could the NDP underperform 2019?" note, let me say this:  "disastrous" is an overstatement.  If you want "disastrous" in the bigger scheme of things, look to Audrey McLaughlin in 1993, or to the Mulcair tailspin over the course of the 2015 campaign.  And yes, this result highlighted a certain all-surface-no-guts element to the Jagmeet campaign--and in a weird way, I think PPC energy-hogging plowed a big mound of dirt on top of Jagmeetian "positivity" over the course of the campaign.  Otherwise, "bittersweet" might be the more fitting term, not too much different from the Douglas/Lewis leadership era--or else you might as well suggest that the federal NDP's very existence has been one continuous disaster (2011 excepted) for six decades running, and more if you include the CCF.

Painting this in blunt-testosterone winners vs losers terms betrays too much conditioning within hyper-binary systems a la the US or Australia.  I prefer my electoral politics gynaecological over phallic, thank you.

Still feeling this way? I’m waking up to the NDP being at 25, which is frankly pitiful given all the potential upside they had this year. I wasn’t thrilled when I was going to bed with them at 29, but now I’m actually upset.

I probably preemptively insulated myself through my prior "could the NDP underperform 2019?" speculation.  And again:  when all is said and done, more bittersweet than "disastrous", much less "two disastrous elections in a row".

Still, I agree that there's a *bit* of delusionality among partisans.  And while I've suggested that Layton was himself prone to novelty gimmicks, at least he set out to build an organizational foundation "where it counts", and a lot of that as a carryover from his latter-day approach to municipal politics, setting up alliances and seeking common ground in unlikely places.  Whereas Jagmeet and his team seem more adept at whipping up millennial-friendly pixie dust than that kind of Laytonesque meat-and-potatoes kitchen-table fare (and millennials and post-millennials are too "lateral" a demo for the "verticality" that a FPTP electoral system demands).  Too much AOC, not enough "2016 Bernie".  The result being that the *actual* unsexy ground-level riding-by-riding party infrastructure winds up being undernourished--and of course, Covid concerns don't presently help; perhaps they were hoping the pixie dust could compensate for necessarily thwarted groundwork.

Let's presume the NDP *does* clue into that deficiency.  And if Jagmeet is *still* not the right vehicle (perhaps because it'd be hard to get him to do meat-and-potatoes without putting a cute "Punjabi" spin on it?), then as future leadership goes...anyone for Avi Lewis?  (Seriously.  He finished an awfully strong 3rd in a universally-agreed-upon hopeless cause, *probably/perhaps* as a preview to a future run in a more viable riding--and on top of that, his family bloodline practically *codified* a certain characteristically "NDP" hyperintensive street-level voter-identification approach to electoral politics.)

I'm not sure Avi Lewis is the Laytonesque alternative to Singh, and especially because this is a minority parliament where the NDP is likely to play a big role, I'm not sure picking an extra-parliamentary leader (again) is a good call.

Charlie Angus is the name everyone's throwing around, he has this "straight-talkin' jack" persona which contrasts well with Trudeau. Or if they really want to call back to Layton and make gains in Quebec, Boulerice seems like the obvious pick. Nathan Cullen could be a good pick, but I don't imagine he wants to throw away his job in BC as a majority government minister in exchange for leading the federal party. Maybe Jenny Kwan, Peter Julian, or Don Davies from the Vancouver area? Maybe Leah Gazan from Winnipeg?

But in all honesty, I don't think Singh goes.

Avi is very well liked within the party and its been mentioned his lineage so there. But that's the call, if the Liberals had won a majority the NDP would have been in a better place to have an extra-parliamentary leader. Not now, when as you know we could go back to the polls next year. I also think we may see Avi run in one of the seats held by one of the longer serving BC NDP MPs, say New West-Burnaby (Julien, elected in 2004) or Vancouver-Kingsway (Davies, from 2008) or perhaps Burnaby North-Seymour or Vancouver Centre (If Hedy decides to retire)

I think Singh is safe, given we do not know the final results. I am hoping the NDP manages to pick up 3 (my best hope would be 7) with mail-ins, but we will have to see.

IF we are looking at potential leaders, the No's would be Kwan and Davies, I don't see them having leadership aspirations. Julien tried and while he's a fantastic MP, very knowledgeable, he tried and we (the NDP members) realized he's not very charismatic at all, super nice though, just flat.  
Cullen I'd say no, I think he see's his future in BC politics, and potentially a leadership role there.
Ashton, I'd say no; she tried and pulled in a strong second showing, but has had some issues so since then. She's likely back a different left candidate

- Boulerice I could see; did not run in 2017 leadership but he has a strong personal following, from Quebec, from the left of the party (good and bad there)
- Gazan would be very interesting, I'd put her in the I hope she does. She speaks very well and is passionate, also from the left of the party and the 2019 crew, and the Prairies; she'd need to try and tap into that prairie progressive populism of old. But if the party found that some voters had issues with Singh being not white, that pool will still have issues with Gazan. Also, I don't know about her French? HoC says English & French.
- An outsider would be Matthew Green from Hamilton Centre. Experienced, still new from and the 2019 crew. Could focus on that working class voter that the NDP needs to pull back from the slide to the CPC. Also from the left of the party.
I'm kind of struggling outside of that, perhaps Heather McPherson from Edmonton, would be a more moderate candidate and from Alberta. I don't believe any of the other MPs have the persona to carry the party really.

[lilTommy]

Another reminder that Matthew Green has refused to condemn a professor (Amir Attaran) who called Quebec white supremacist.

He is ultra-woke and see everything through racial lens. Great pick if you want to lose both Quebec and Northern Ontario.

Very good points... so maybe not.  

Daniel Blaikie could be another interesting contender, he's not a standout in terms of embracing something that gets his name out there in the public ethos, BUT he's a solid MP, lineage as well, French? not sure. BUT he comes from a trades/union background, also young (37 I think).  

Charlie Angus; well we don't have all the ballots yet so...
NDP 35% 2021 - 40% 2019
CPC 27% 2021 - 27% 2019
LPC 24% 2021 - 25% 2019
PPC 13% 2021 - 3% 2019

I think it's mostly a protest vote, the more socially conservative union folks attracted to the PPC or new voters who were driven by this. since the LPC/CPC vote is basically right now unchanged from 2019

For context, in Ontario 2018 the vote was NDP 51%, OLP 24%, OPC 22% - No right-wing, Libertarian style party.  But you can see though how some federal CPC voters are voting NDP provincially perhaps

[lilTommy]

How about John Horgan. Does he want the top job?

Interesting, would that not be a first in Canada? A former provincial Premier winning a federal nomination?
I know former provincial party leaders have.

[lilTommy]

What makes Vancouver Island so left-wing?

Long tradition of trade union activity due to resource industries (particularly logging) and the processing and shipping of the results. Of course that's a left-wing tradition that, under certain circumstances, can crack very hard the other way: the area was a Reform/CA stronghold in Canada's Long 1990s.

Yes to all of the above; also general unionization would be high I think from public sector workers (Victoria the BC capital being on the island) General west coast progressive-old hippie, new young "woke" vibe. Environmentalists and a solid Indigenous community. But as to above, a protest vote as well; from 1993 till about 2006 this was dominated by Reform/CA, then even the CPC. It wasn't till 2015 when the NDP "dominated" Vancouver Island. In 2011 the Island elected 3 NDP, 2 CPC, 1 GRN. Now (if it holds) it's 6 NDP, 1 GRN.  

[lilTommy]

NDP partisans have lost the plot. Other than 2011 when LPC completely collapsed to due Ignatieff's terrible leadership, this is the the NDP's role in Canada. To be the 3rd major party getting 15-20% of the vote and keeping the Liberals from moving to far to the center. That is the metric that they should be judged against, not the seat count. LPC has taken over many of the NDP policies like pharmacare/childcare. By that metric, Singh is doing his job. NDP partisans should be happy if they care about policy and not just rooting for the orange team.

Ugh, it's really both we care about I think. We can't hold the LPC to being centre-left-progressive if the party can't elect MPs in ridings. THIS is why FPTP is terrible in Canada. If we had MMP like New Zealand or Scotland even, the focus would be much less on winning specific ridings but rather winning votes overall (think the Labour-Green relationship in NZ).
PLUS the NDP hates when the Liberals get credit for NDP policies and ideas... like childcare, Common Trudeau!, you did not support the $10-a-day deal in even 2019! I digress lol

[lilTommy]

Yes to all of the above; also general unionization would be high I think from public sector workers (Victoria the BC capital being on the island) General west coast progressive-old hippie, new young "woke" vibe. Environmentalists and a solid Indigenous community.

Yes this is all there as well, though has been as liable to help (once) Liberal and (now) Green candidates as Dippers. But it all adds up to a landscape in which, for once, the NDP often benefit as the comparatively middle of the road option between relative extremes, at least on the sort of issues that are particularly sensitive on the Island...

Outside of Victoria, is Vancouver Islands population still more working class than hippies/migrants from urban areas?

Yes, and a lot of those hippies are working class.

Effectively the more North you go, the further from the Capital region the, more the region shifts into resources based working class. The CPC is the main opposition to the NDP on the island, particularly in Courtney-Alberni and North Island-Powell River, but pretty much everywhere now. Saanich Green vote is more a May vote now but is really their base of support, amongst more affluent older voters. The Greens have dropped down to their mostly 3rd or 4th place even in Nanaimo-Ladysmith

[lilTommy]

Mulcair presided over the biggest seat loss in... the entire history of the party, I'm pretty sure? And the idea that he wouldn't have lost as many seats if not more than Singh in 2019 is dubious at best. He blew up a real chance at winning a plurality. I don't see by what metric he could be seen as anything other than an abject failure.

There are good reasons to criticize Singh and be disappointed in his leadership, but putting him in the same category as Mulcair is ridiculous. The fact is that the NDP is back to its pre-2011 status as a minor party. In a situation like this, the most it can realistically hope for is to gain a few seats per election. Singh didn't deliver on that exactly, but he seemed to have succeeded in at least stabilizing the party's fortunes, which was not a given after the 2015 disaster.

I think when we analyze the NDPs results so far on the riding level, the NDP did ok, yes not as good as expected but not as bad as 2019. The NDP gained 3 seats, sadly thought losing 2 but those 2 losses were situational I think.

Hamilton Mountain - The NDP nominated quite frankly a terrible candidate for the seat, a former MP who is NOT from Hamilton. I really don't know what their thinking was here, it wasn't even a contested nomination. The LPC has been nipping at the NDP here since 2015 at least, polling over 30% so the riding association failed here. BUT Hamilton, for the lack of a better word, has been "Torontoising" for the last decade at least. Cheaper housing, and proximity to TO has attracted many young urban swing progressives from Toronto, particularly those starting families. Housing is like half the cost here (or was). So you can see Hamilton Mountain and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek (to a lesser extent since it is already more LPC friendly due to Stoney Creek) are more susceptible to ABC-but-really-vote-Liberal strategic voting.

St. John's East - The other open seat with no incumbent, and that incumbent being Jack Harris a legend in NFLD, this was always going to be tough. I think the NDP nominated a good candidate, a relatively strong one, but she was no Jack Harris. I was actually hopping someone like Sheilagh O'Leary (SJs deputy mayor and former provincial ndp candidate) would run who at least has a bigger shadow to cast, but maybe next time. Anyway, the provincial Liberals were gunning for this seat and their ground game paid off. I think it was going to be a hard fight no matter what, where Hamilton Mountain was a failure of the local NDP from the start, in SJE it was just too high of a mountain to climb this time sadly,

BUT, the gains:

Edmonton Greisbach - EVERY 'Dipper should be so excited about this gain, and we should look to this seat as a playbook. 1) it's been a target since 2008, and the party grew from 25% in 2019 (below the past few elections of mid-late 30%) to 40%. 2) a big thanks has to go to Janis Irwin and Rachel Notley and the ANDP, they were all over this seat as was Singh and the entire federal party. This goes to show the party should really stick to targeted regional campaigns. 3) the Kenney effect, this was always a week area for conservatives but with the success of the ANDP over the last decade and the failures of the UCP during the pandemic, a big chunk of the vote was CPC-NDP punishing kenney, but the NDP were able to harness it. This may be a one-off but the party should really look at the success in Edmonton Manning and Edmonton Centre, where the party gained 13% and 9% (Edmonton Centre could have been won had Boissonnault not run).

Port Moody-Coquitlam - An almost from 2019, same candidate again but a much more focused campaign. The NDP here were helped by no green (gained 7% over 2019, and the Greens won... 7% in 2019). The NDP needs to focus on retaining this Green vote to see more success in BC, the collapse of the Greens benefitted the NDP but also the LPC.

Nanaimo-Ladysmith - Not called yet but here's hoping, the NDP wanted this so bad. It was a sting to have lost it in the first place when the Greens were on an up-ward trend pre-2015. It's still close so this riding shows how important local ground game is. The NDP is marginally up 6%, but the CPC is also up 3%, the Greens down 9%... so you can see here, the Green vote split unlike in Port Moody-Coquitlam.

Toronto: ugh, my city... The NDP is up in Davenport by 2% and 8% in Parkdale-High Park, and so close in my Spadina-Fort York (we know that's situational) The Indi MP is getting massive amounts of negative press, even Adam Vaughan has come out against him so... there may be a by-election fairly soon (and I hope!). But also up in Toronto Centre by 4%, and Danforth is back to pre-Layton 33-34% (sad, only a "star" candidate can really win this back, maybe). But it's the strategic voting, its the meh-LPC are doing ok, it's the Ya-ill-vote-NDP-but-then-I-change-my-mind-voter. It's hard to say what will help, policy maybe but the LPC eventually gets around to stealing it and, surprise most voters don't care and praise the LPC for it. Better ground game, sure always helps, but the wall of LPC-strategic voting is very strong and very high.

The NDP caucus is more diverse and female now as well; -2 older white men, +2 women and +1 Indigenous two-spirit MP man (the first in Canada).  

[lilTommy]

... from my experience, Every. Single. Toronto. Riding. Many voters are not looking at their local race, they hear the Leaders, they hear the messaging from the LPC that only they can stop the CPC... and it sells them. It's maddening!

[lilTommy]

If the NDP takes one good thing out of the election, it's that they won more votes overall:

Votes compared to 2019…
NDP +60,572
Liberal -585,611
Conservative -600,065
Green -802,090
Bloc Québécois -95,186

but...
PPC +547,908 - big winners in vote increase

[lilTommy]

In Ontario they are in a pickle.  Your blue collar areas like Hamilton, Windsor, and Northern Ontario tend to be more left wing populists and Singh is a bad fit for those.  Only held onto these due to Tory weakness, although Tories did better than usual in these and PPC was surprisingly strong here. 

One breach-in-the-red-wall earthquake that only became clear in the final tally was the NDP finishing 3rd in *Nickel Belt*--an ignominy they had escaped even in the darkest Audrey/Alexa years...

The NDP came in second, BUT the CPC and NDP had the same vote % at 27%. the NDP has 167 votes over the CPC. Your point there thought, that's a 5% decrease for the NDP and a 6% increase for the CPC. The LPC also lost 4% while the PPC gained 7%.
It is a somewhat worrying trend for the NDP in Northern Ontario:
Sudbury - Flat, 28% in 2019 vs 29% in 2021
Nickel Belt - 32% to 27%
Saulte Ste.Marie - 22% to 20%
Thunder Bay-Rainy River - Flat, 28% both elections
Timmins-James Bay - 39% to 35%

Improved vote:
Thunder Bay-Superior North - 21% to 27% (second place vs third)
Kenora - 28% to 30% (second place vs third)

It was mentioned already but in these areas (including windsor/hamilton, union urban areas) a left-wing populist pocket-book approach is needed, which is different then what might play in urban cores, where the NDP need to retain and attract promiscuous progressives. Singh can't sacrifice one for the other, the loss of Hamilton-Mountain and the inability to gain back Windsor-Tecumseh and Essex should slap the leadership into realizing this...I hope. 

[lilTommy]

In Ontario they are in a pickle.  Your blue collar areas like Hamilton, Windsor, and Northern Ontario tend to be more left wing populists and Singh is a bad fit for those.  Only held onto these due to Tory weakness, although Tories did better than usual in these and PPC was surprisingly strong here. 

One breach-in-the-red-wall earthquake that only became clear in the final tally was the NDP finishing 3rd in *Nickel Belt*--an ignominy they had escaped even in the darkest Audrey/Alexa years...

The NDP came in second, BUT the CPC and NDP had the same vote % at 27%. the NDP has 167 votes over the CPC. Your point there thought, that's a 5% decrease for the NDP and a 6% increase for the CPC. The LPC also lost 4% while the PPC gained 7%.

Actually, the final certified result put CPC ahead by nearly 300 votes.

... CBC needs update their site! Thanks!

[lilTommy]

I think areas with lots of private sector unions a mix.  Its true Vancouver Island stays competitive for NDP, but BC Interior I believe has high rate of private sector unions.  While Okanagan Valley and Peace River area have never gone NDP (where unionization rates low), back in 90s NDP used to win in Kamloops and Prince George whereas nowadays both vote for parties on right at both levels.  In Northern Ontario true but Southern Ontario mixed.  Hamilton and Windsor still very weak for Tories, but Oshawa, Essex, Brantford-Brant which prior to merger rarely voted for parties on right now go Tory most of the time.  And Niagara Centre I think is a low hanging fruit that Tories could definitely win in a future election.  I think in Ontario, its more private sector unions favour NDP in Northern Ontario and urban ridings, but favour Tories in more smaller communities in Southern Ontario and likewise favour NDP in coastal areas, but Tories in Interior.  Skeena-Bulkley Valley I think goes NDP more due to large aboriginal population.  Yes won when Nathan Cullen was leader but I've noticed provincially that BC NDP generally gets over 80% on reserves or predominately First Nation areas, but outside those BC Liberals tend to win albeit much narrower margins and if federal results follow similar pattern, that would suggest large Aboriginal population not private sector unions reason they are holding it.  Now South Okanagan-West Kootenay agreed as Trail and Castlegar do seem unlike rest of Interior to have remained loyal to NDP.  Also in Grand Forks you have big Dhukobor community and I suspect due to communal lifestyle and pacifism, they mostly go NDP too.

Part of it could be type of job too.  I've found in BC, forestry workers tend to favour NDP, but those in resource sector more likely to vote Tory.  Although mining in other provinces mostly NDP still.  Part of reason Interior goes Conservative is NDP has a strong environmental wing which was much weaker in 90s and many worry they have too much influence and will hurt jobs.  Heck even in 2005 and 2009, NDP was competitive provincially in Cariboo and East Kootenays, but those now solidly BC Liberal despite most of province swinging away from them.

What's interesting on VanIsland is that the NDP(more so) and CPC(lesser) and LPC(much less) are benefiting from the collapse of the Greens, 2021 vs 2019. (Using CBC so I hope they are updated!)

North Island-Powell River - NDP+3, CPC +4, GRN -7, LPC -0
Courtney-Alberni - NDP+3, CPC -1, LPC +1, GRN -8
Nanaimo-Ladysmith - NDP+6, CPC +2, GRN -8, LPC+1
Cowichan-Malahat-Langford - NDP+7, CPC+3, GRN-14(!), LPC+1
Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke NDP+9, LPC+5, CPC+3, GRN-17(!!)
Victoria - NDP+11, LPC+5, CPC+2, GRN-18(!!)
Saanich-Gulf Islands - GRN-11, CPC+3, NDP+6, LPC+2

Others have commented that there may be a trend towards the LPC, right now it's not really happening in fact the southern portion is trending much more NDP then anything else right now. The NPD is >40% in every riding but two, Nanaimo-Laydsmith and Saanich-Gulf Islands. This is the new-ish NDP heartland of the country.

It is really interesting the trend away from the NDP is some interior/north areas, and some areas swinging more to the NDP.
NDP losing (provincially) Columbia River-Revelstoke and Skeena in 2017, and even with a massive victory in 2020 they failed to win those seats back with only a very small increase in vote should worry the party that their old base isn't being attracted back. I think you hit it on the perception of the party by this group. However, the NDP gained Boundary-Similkameen (big swing) and Vernon-Monashee (decent swing) which are closer in to Kelowna and the lower mainland. Both also benefits of a weaker/no green.
Federally though, in Kooteny-Columbia the NDP won the same % of the vote, 37% in 2021 as they did in 2015 but failed to win the seat this time but did in 2015. The CPC lost 2% but they could afford to and still won with 43% b/c the LPC vote crashed here and pretty much all swung CPC (9% in 2021/2019 vs 19% in 2015). Where the LPC vote crashes into matters; in South Okanagan-West Boundary the LPC vote moved to the NDP, with the NDP+5, CPC-0, LPC-5, making this seat much safer for the NDP then just last election when the NDP only won by about 1% or so.

In Skeena-Bulkley Valley the margin is getting smaller, but not by much; 6% margin vs 7% in 2019. Both the NDP and CPC saw their votes increase, NDP+2, CPC+3, coming from the LPC-3 and GRN-3. We are really seeing a polarization (outside of the lower mainland) of the vote, LPC losing and their vote shifting either NDP or CPC, mirroring the politics on the provincial level. This hurts and helps the NDP, depending where you are in the province. Gaining interior ridings Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo may not be insight unless the NDP is well above +20% nationally, even if some harken back to when the NDP held this. But ridings like Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge are in sight even if the NDP is at +18% nationally.
It goes back to the NDP playing the progressive-populist-pocketbook playbook in these rural-resource-working class seats.

[lilTommy]

Some ridings where the NDP vote increased significantly:

Vancouver-Granville  +20.4
Edmonton-Griesbach  +14.9
Spadina-Fort York  +14.4
Halifax  +9.6
Guelph  +8.8
Edmonton Centre  +8.4
Parkdale-High Park  +7.7
Vancouver Centre  +6.8
Kingston and the Islands  +6.0

They did well in inner city districts and university towns

Some might be a "this election-fluke"
- Spadina-Fort York -> we know the last minute mess with the LPC candidate and his sexual harassment and million dollar lawsuit helped push voters to the NDP. HAD this happened a week or more out from the election instead of days... the NDP might have been able to win.

-Vancouver-Granville -> similar story in that the LPC candidate got rightfully trashed for his business dealings, and this was an open seat so we really didn't know how Wilson-Raybould's vote would spread. This riding has only been around since 2015. LPC picked up 8%, NDP picked up 21%, CPC picked up 6.

- Vancouver Centre and Guelph are interesting; In both ridings it was a repeat of 2019, same candidates for both the NDP and LPC. It looks like here we see the Greens swinging harder to the NDP (or not voting at all). Kingston the Green Candidate stepped down and endorsed the NDP so again, I think much of the vote increase is a return-home of NDP-Green voters in 2019. 

[lilTommy]

https://twitter.com/MaBlaisMorin/status/1445846284573630467?t=J0zW3lkx5Dbv_KpBVj...

The Liberals have held onto Chateuguay-Lacolle after a recount. So not a single seat changed hands in Quebec! Extraordinary.

So just the one more recount then? in Davenport

[lilTommy]

While this doesn't alter the overall trend in Northern Ontario to the Conservatives, it does explain a little of why the Conservatives won Kenora so handily.

Elections Canada admits fault for First Nations voting issues
Elections Canada says ‘confusion’ between their staff and three First Nation communities in the Kenora area lead to 1,600 community members not being able to vote on the night of the 2021 federal election.

https://www.kenoraonline.com/articles/elections-canada-admits-fault-for-first-nations-voting-issues

Well not only; the Liberal vote crashed by 10% and went almost exclusively to the CPC. The CPC saw a +9% increase while the NDP saw a +1%. IF even all 1600 votes went to the NDP, which First Nations tend to vote overwhelmingly NDP (or sometimes Liberal) that would put their vote at about 9400 vs the CPC with 11100. So much closer but it was the bulk of Liberals shifting to the Conservatives, probably because CPC was the incumbent, Nault was not running for the LPC and provincially about half the federal riding is held by the PCs, the Kenora-Dryden area in the south which is the bulk of the population.
Kenora is looking more and more like Sault. Ste Marie in their voting patterns: a large bulk of NDP voters, but fairly stagnant, or they have a ceiling of sorts and a majority of Liberal-Conservative swing voters, a sort of anti-NDP voting block. Not saying the NDP can't win here, they just need a specific kind of campaign or candidate to attract a more moderate or populist voter who more naturally sides with the Liberal/Conservatives.

Note: I grew up in a small city that bordered a large reservation; there is an underlying racist/discriminatory sentiment in some people, many older folks. This has likely gotten better back home (maybe worse) but it was not uncommon to hear in passing people say First nations were lazy, drunks, all smugglers, that kind of nasty talk. Even from people who otherwise seemed fairly progressive. In terms of Kenora this is the second high profile Indigenous candidate the NDP have ran and I was happy to see that, but there is this issue they have to face... sadly ALL minority candidates (BIPOC, LGBTQ+, women) still face some hate.