2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[toaster]

No one mentioning Carol Hughes?  Fully bilingual, was Deputy Speaker of the House.  Would do well in Quebec (has that Quebecker attitude even though she's from Kap, ON).

[Suburbia]

Tories won the popular vote in 2019 and 2021---but did not gain the seats needed to clinch power.

Will there be electoral reform?

Clearly the Liberal Party is not popular---and Trudeau will be gone by or on 2025. The Tories will win the next election, so there is hope for Gretzky and the NHLers.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He was. Unfortunately he was also a poor leader of the new federal NDP. Not really his fault - it hardly being a surprise that an agrarian socialist who saw politics in essentially moralistic and religious terms struggled to connect with the 'new Canada' emerging in the 1960s - but an important warning that success in one context does not lead automatically or inevitably to success in others.

You think the credit he get's for the Canadian healthcare and welfare system is undue ?

Certainly not, but that's a separate issue and relates more to the success of the system that he pushed for (and which was implemented by his successor) in Saskatchewan, without which the sense of overwhelming momentum that proved critical would not have existed.

[Хahar 🤔]

Major issue with the NDP is that, once in power, they do not govern in a way that lives up to their federal promises. It's noticeable that Horgan and Notley have had no coattails here. In this context a personal campaign around a fairly popular leader makes sense, but that didn't work either. I don't think a change of leadership would help here. There needs to be a fundamental change in the federal party's objectives. They need to figure out their base that wins them provinicial seats (working class, indigenous, young folks) and act like the Bloc - if its good we vote yes, if its bad for them we vote no.

Heat has already alluded to this, but since Tommy Douglas the only NDP leader who was even sort of from the west was Audrey McLaughlin, who grew up in Ontario and moved to the Yukon as an adult. With that possible exception, they've all been easterners. The federal NDP should fare much better in the west than it does; it's hard not to imagine that this has something to do with its constant longing for what is not there.

[TwinGeeks99]

Just wanna leave these results here:

Ontario:

LPC: 39.0% - 78 seats
CPC: 35.0% - 37 seats
NDP: 17.9% - 5 seats
PPC: 5.6% - 0 seats
GPC: 2.2% - 1 seat


British Columbia:

CPC: 33.4% - 13 seats
NDP: 29.0% - 13 seats
LPC: 26.8% - 15 seats
GPC: 5.3% - 1 seat
PPC: 5.1% - 0 seats

First past the post is really a wonderful system, isn't it?

[jaichind]

If I were shown vote share by province ahead of time I would have expected a neck-to-neck race between LPC and CPC for largest party.

[VPH]

No one mentioning Carol Hughes?  Fully bilingual, was Deputy Speaker of the House.  Would do well in Quebec (has that Quebecker attitude even though she's from Kap, ON).

She's a pretty solid MP. Would likely tap into the same vein of support that Charlie Angus did, but my question is whether that's enough to win the leadership. It seems the NDP has moved away from its rural populist roots and is now a party of university-educated leftist urbanites. I wanted them to win a seat in Saskatoon and Regina partly to shift that balance back, but they fell short

[kwabbit]

Just wanna leave these results here:

Ontario:

LPC: 39.0% - 78 seats
CPC: 35.0% - 37 seats
NDP: 17.9% - 5 seats
PPC: 5.6% - 0 seats
GPC: 2.2% - 1 seat


British Columbia:

CPC: 33.4% - 13 seats
NDP: 29.0% - 13 seats
LPC: 26.8% - 15 seats
GPC: 5.3% - 1 seat
PPC: 5.1% - 0 seats

First past the post is really a wonderful system, isn't it?

How are they so efficient in BC? I know in Ontario they win a lot of GTA seats by relatively limited margins, is that the case in metro Vancouver?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just wanna leave these results here:

Ontario:

LPC: 39.0% - 78 seats
CPC: 35.0% - 37 seats
NDP: 17.9% - 5 seats
PPC: 5.6% - 0 seats
GPC: 2.2% - 1 seat


British Columbia:

CPC: 33.4% - 13 seats
NDP: 29.0% - 13 seats
LPC: 26.8% - 15 seats
GPC: 5.3% - 1 seat
PPC: 5.1% - 0 seats

First past the post is really a wonderful system, isn't it?

How are they so efficient in BC? I know in Ontario they win a lot of GTA seats by relatively limited margins, is that the case in metro Vancouver?

The Liberal vote is very lacking in many areas of the BC Interior, and concentrated in metro Vancouver.

[King of Kensington]

Yes Jagmeet's NDP has become very much a party of millennials in gentrified or gentrifying areas.

The Toronto riding of Parkdale-High Park is a good example.  The NDP ran a super-"woke" candidate, Paul Taylor, who greatly improved the vote share and is in a very good position to take it next time.  

[TopShelfGoal]

Just wanna leave these results here:

Ontario:

LPC: 39.0% - 78 seats
CPC: 35.0% - 37 seats
NDP: 17.9% - 5 seats
PPC: 5.6% - 0 seats
GPC: 2.2% - 1 seat


British Columbia:

CPC: 33.4% - 13 seats
NDP: 29.0% - 13 seats
LPC: 26.8% - 15 seats
GPC: 5.3% - 1 seat
PPC: 5.1% - 0 seats

First past the post is really a wonderful system, isn't it?

How are they so efficient in BC? I know in Ontario they win a lot of GTA seats by relatively limited margins, is that the case in metro Vancouver?

BC is like 3 different provinces. You have the Vancouver Island, the lower mainland and the interior. It doesn't matter how bad the LPC does on the island as the NDP is going to sweep it anyways. LPC's strength is concentrated in the lower mainland allowing them to win lots of seats. If you decouple the lower mainland numbers from the rest of BC it make a lot of sense.

In fact this is actually an example of FPTP NOT screwing up. If you go into individual regions... the people voting in that region more or less got the representation they wanted.

[StateBoiler]

Just wanna leave these results here:

Ontario:

LPC: 39.0% - 78 seats
CPC: 35.0% - 37 seats
NDP: 17.9% - 5 seats
PPC: 5.6% - 0 seats
GPC: 2.2% - 1 seat


British Columbia:

CPC: 33.4% - 13 seats
NDP: 29.0% - 13 seats
LPC: 26.8% - 15 seats
GPC: 5.3% - 1 seat
PPC: 5.1% - 0 seats

First past the post is really a wonderful system, isn't it?

If you're a Liberal, yeah!

There's a danger in this line of being satisfied with these results if you're them. They go down a few percent nationally, they completely collapse.

[BigSerg]

Just wanna leave these results here:

Ontario:

LPC: 39.0% - 78 seats
CPC: 35.0% - 37 seats
NDP: 17.9% - 5 seats
PPC: 5.6% - 0 seats
GPC: 2.2% - 1 seat


British Columbia:

CPC: 33.4% - 13 seats
NDP: 29.0% - 13 seats
LPC: 26.8% - 15 seats
GPC: 5.3% - 1 seat
PPC: 5.1% - 0 seats

First past the post is really a wonderful system, isn't it?

If you're a Liberal, yeah!

There's a danger in this line of being satisfied with these results if you're them. They go down a few percent nationally, they completely collapse.

The Canadian system is immensely flawed even considering the "it's a parliamentary system" excuse. I think an electoral system like Spain is much more equitable, there if you win the popular vote you won't get an absolute majority, but you will definitely get more seats than the other parties.

[warandwar]

Yes Jagmeet's NDP has become very much a party of millennials in gentrified or gentrifying areas.

The Toronto riding of Parkdale-High Park is a good example.  The NDP ran a super-"woke" candidate, Paul Taylor, who greatly improved the vote share and is in a very good position to take it next time.  

Where they do well doesn't equal what they are "a party of."

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Major issue with the NDP is that, once in power, they do not govern in a way that lives up to their federal promises. It's noticeable that Horgan and Notley have had no coattails here. In this context a personal campaign around a fairly popular leader makes sense, but that didn't work either. I don't think a change of leadership would help here. There needs to be a fundamental change in the federal party's objectives. They need to figure out their base that wins them provinicial seats (working class, indigenous, young folks) and act like the Bloc - if its good we vote yes, if its bad for them we vote no.

Heat has already alluded to this, but since Tommy Douglas the only NDP leader who was even sort of from the west was Audrey McLaughlin, who grew up in Ontario and moved to the Yukon as an adult. With that possible exception, they've all been easterners. The federal NDP should fare much better in the west than it does; it's hard not to imagine that this has something to do with its constant longing for what is not there.

I'd say that, whether we think it's possible to be a national party in a country as large and internally divided as Canada or not, the NDP needs to be seen as credible and comfortable in its own skin to get anywhere. Barring the emergence of another Eastern politico as talented as Jack Layton (who was not really a typical NDP leader in many ways), the best plausible way of instilling this in the federal party would seem to be to look to the places where it already has what it wants i.e. a consistent chance at power. This is something the NDP hasn't done since Douglas, and even his federal career is telling on this front - he failed to win a seat in Saskatchewan and the party instead had to scrounge up a safer seat in BC for him. This is a similar trajectory to Singh's (except Douglas at least tried first), and it seems unhealthy (if in character for a social democratic party, I guess) that BC - one of the stronger pillars of the NDP for its entire existence - is rarely if ever considered as a source of potential leaders, only as a repository of safe(ish) seats.

In general, the seductive logic of 'people vote for people who look like them' has served the NDP poorly for its entire existence - there are all the Ontarian leaders who failed to break through in Ontario, obviously (lest we forget, Andrea Horwath did much better with ethnic minority voters in the 905 in 2018 than Singh has done in either of his outings thus far), and while Layton may have been born in Montréal nobody perceived him as a Quebecker, it wasn't a major part of his political image, he gave Quebeckers other reasons to vote for him - and when the NDP was led by a Quebecker it did much worse there.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Just wanna leave these results here:

Ontario:

LPC: 39.0% - 78 seats
CPC: 35.0% - 37 seats
NDP: 17.9% - 5 seats
PPC: 5.6% - 0 seats
GPC: 2.2% - 1 seat


British Columbia:

CPC: 33.4% - 13 seats
NDP: 29.0% - 13 seats
LPC: 26.8% - 15 seats
GPC: 5.3% - 1 seat
PPC: 5.1% - 0 seats

First past the post is really a wonderful system, isn't it?

How are they so efficient in BC? I know in Ontario they win a lot of GTA seats by relatively limited margins, is that the case in metro Vancouver?

BC is like 3 different provinces. You have the Vancouver Island, the lower mainland and the interior. It doesn't matter how bad the LPC does on the island as the NDP is going to sweep it anyways. LPC's strength is concentrated in the lower mainland allowing them to win lots of seats. If you decouple the lower mainland numbers from the rest of BC it make a lot of sense.

In fact this is actually an example of FPTP NOT screwing up. If you go into individual regions... the people voting in that region more or less got the representation they wanted.

What makes Vancouver Island so left-wing?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What makes Vancouver Island so left-wing?

Long tradition of trade union activity due to resource industries (particularly logging) and the processing and shipping of the results. Of course that's a left-wing tradition that, under certain circumstances, can crack very hard the other way: the area was a Reform/CA stronghold in Canada's Long 1990s.

[TopShelfGoal]

Big swing to the Liberals among Chinese voters.  Did O'Toole's "get tough on China" talk hurt?

Yeah the big Chiniese-Canadian Liberal swing was a surprise. Interestingly, the swing towards the LPC among minority groups this election only seems to be limited to Chinese-Canadians.

Looking at the Brampton ridings, it seems the South Asian-Canadian vote moved towards the CPC by ~5% (more than what Ontario as whole moved to CPC).

I think there are 2 factors at play when it comes to O'Toole's struggles with the Chinese-Canadian vote:

1. East Asian community seems to take covid more seriously than any other group, so any kind of "soft on Covid/Vaccines/Masks" perception would hurt you more in that community than among other groups.

2. Candidates matter. The candidates in ridings which people use as proxy for Chinese-Canadian vote (the Richmond ridings, Markham-Stoufville) are no longer a good fit for those ridings. The tory MPs in all those ridings voted against the conversion therapy ban. Alice Wong is one of the most socially conservative member of parliament. All those ridings are very urban, upscale and educated and voting against conversion therapy bans while representing ridings as urban and educated as Richmond and Markham is not a good look.

[lilTommy]

What makes Vancouver Island so left-wing?

Long tradition of trade union activity due to resource industries (particularly logging) and the processing and shipping of the results. Of course that's a left-wing tradition that, under certain circumstances, can crack very hard the other way: the area was a Reform/CA stronghold in Canada's Long 1990s.

Yes to all of the above; also general unionization would be high I think from public sector workers (Victoria the BC capital being on the island) General west coast progressive-old hippie, new young "woke" vibe. Environmentalists and a solid Indigenous community. But as to above, a protest vote as well; from 1993 till about 2006 this was dominated by Reform/CA, then even the CPC. It wasn't till 2015 when the NDP "dominated" Vancouver Island. In 2011 the Island elected 3 NDP, 2 CPC, 1 GRN. Now (if it holds) it's 6 NDP, 1 GRN.  

[King of Kensington]

Scarborough North (40%+ Chinese) actually ended up with the highest Liberal vote share in the GTA (66.5%).  The Conservative share plummeted from 30% to 19%.  The second largest ethnic community is the Tamil community which is already super-Liberal (after going NDP once in 2011).

In the last federal election (and also 2018 provincial) you could really see the difference in results between "Chinese Scarborough" (Agincourt and Scarborough North ridings, 30%+ Conservative in '19, 50% for the Ford PCs) and the rest (where federal Conservatives were in the 20s and the PCs below 40%), but this time much less evident.

[Geoffrey Howe]

What makes Vancouver Island so left-wing?

Long tradition of trade union activity due to resource industries (particularly logging) and the processing and shipping of the results. Of course that's a left-wing tradition that, under certain circumstances, can crack very hard the other way: the area was a Reform/CA stronghold in Canada's Long 1990s.

What do you mean by this? Why did Reform do so well there in the '90s?

[TopShelfGoal]

This election was also an extremely bad look for Legault who I think has hurt his position. Trudeau always wanted to appease him to not have him be against him but now that he was openly against Trudeau and worse failed to back his bark when it came to delivering votes- Trudeau will be much more willing to play hardball with him and he may not get his goodies that easily esp going into a provincial election next year.

It also hurts him among the other federal leaders who now see that he cannot deliver them votes.

Finally it hurts his provincial prospects as he no longer has an air of neutrality about him. People know who he backed in a federal election, will see that he failed and likely hurt QC's bargaining position at the table. Openly saying that he was hoping for a CPC minority is not look in the QC electorate. Not saying it will lose him the election but publicly taking sides like that is not conducive to maintainig the 55% poll numbers that he was. This should the Parti Quebecois a much needed shot in the arm and provide a narrative for winning back left leaning quebec nationalist voters from the CAQ and for the Quebec Liberal Party to win centerist/center-right leaning voters from CAQ.

Unnecessary self-own by Legault. He did not need try to flex and take the risk.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What do you mean by this? Why did Reform do so well there in the '90s?

There are areas quite similar - economically and socially - to the bulk of Vancouver Island south of the border in the western parts of both Washington and Oregon. The places in question used to be good territory for the Democrats even in bad years, they are... not now. If you follow.

And the answer to the latter is the phenomenon of Western Alienation, which was a much bigger, much more widely spread and (from the perspective of the Canadian State and the Central Canadian political establishment) much more threatening thing back then than it is now. The NDP equivocated on the big constitutional questions that dominated federal politics at the time, this wasn't what its usual base vote (let alone swing voters) on the Island wanted to hear and so they listened to the siren song of Right Populism. Then the credibility of the provincial NDP (temporarily) collapsed as a result of an entertainingly incompetent provincial administration* and the NDP were actually pushed into sub-15% results in some Island ridings by 2000. That they've since recovered is interesting and perhaps more significant than anyone really realises.

_{*The Premier at the time, incidentally, has now re-branded himself as one of Canada's leading Captains of Industry. Hilarious for a former hard-ish Left rabble-rouser, but, well, there's a certain type of utter chancer who will always, always land on their feet.}

[Geoffrey Howe]

Yes - I remember seeing a poll suggesting something like 25% of 1988 NDP voters voted Reform in 1993. Even more, of course, in the West.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes to all of the above; also general unionization would be high I think from public sector workers (Victoria the BC capital being on the island) General west coast progressive-old hippie, new young "woke" vibe. Environmentalists and a solid Indigenous community.

Yes this is all there as well, though has been as liable to help (once) Liberal and (now) Green candidates as Dippers. But it all adds up to a landscape in which, for once, the NDP often benefit as the comparatively middle of the road option between relative extremes, at least on the sort of issues that are particularly sensitive on the Island...