🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Battista Minola 1616]

1. Lmao José Socrates. How is he still around? And how is there even the chance he doesn't get sent to a trial?

2. I see the rift between Marcelo and Costa is officially getting bigger and bigger. This is not at all unexpected, I suppose, but also not great. It is interesting that they both keep having pretty good approval ratings (although I wonder whether and how this is going to change in the following weeks) - I would say that this story is among other things another testament to the ineffectiveness of Rui Rio, who looks... absent from the headlines. Speaking of whom, what is the chance that he resigns after the local elections?

3. Rest in peace Almeida Henriques.

1. Sócrates is always around. He's basically a shadow that continues to hover around as he is the embodiment of all that is wrong and toxic in the political class in Portugal. There's a chance he could avoid trial because of 2 factors: the DA has been accused of creating a highly complex case against him in which a minor error could derail the whole accusation, plus, the judge who will make the call, Ivo Rosa, is very controversial and several of his rulings in the Sócrates case have been revoked by higher Courts. Now, if the judge decides not to take Sócrates to trial, that doesn't mean the end of this case as the DA could still appeal to the Relação Court, which can revoke the decision. But, in the meantime, Sócrates would have the spotlight and seek revenge for those who abandoned him. Some pundits compare the Sócrates case with Lula's in Brazil, and curiously, Lula is also a suspect in Sócrates money schemes;

2. Yeah, the rift between Costa and Marcelo is not going away and the President responded in a very harsh way to Costa. Of course this film isn't new, as Presidents in their second term always have tensions with the Prime Ministers, but this one was earlier than expected. My hunch is that this a battle for power and who really controlls the agenda. In practice, Costa is the only one with real powers, but Marcelo isn't a "ceremonial" President and want his will and voice heard which is now creating a clash. The fact that both are very popular, reinforces the opinion that this is a power struggle, but polling also shows that in terms of trust, Marcelo beats Costa 3 to 1, so it will be interesting to see if this clash with Marcelo hurts Costa's popularity and the PS, or even the other way around.

About Rio, he has been out of the spotlight in the last few days mainly because he had to put out fires ignited by local branches of the PSD: the PSD-Amadora pick, Suzana Garcia, was received with raised eye brows in the leadership and then there's the total mess happening in Portimão. In terms of press, Rio actually got a pretty good month of March, with pundits and the media applauding many of his picks for the local elections and his tough stance against the government in the Dam tax scandal. But, yes, polling still shows him as ineffective and not a real alternative against Costa. His future is dependent on the PSD performance in the September local elections. The PSD seems to be in a much better position this time compared with 2017, with strong candidates in the main cities, especially Lisbon, but Rio has already said that he will step down his he fails to make substantial gains in the local elections.

3. The Almeida Henriques news is very sad but, unfortunately, it was expected for a while. He had been in an ICU for the last few weeks and the updates given by Viseu city hall, pointed that his situation was getting worse and worse. Last week, he was even victim of a fake rumour spread by CMTV, a TV channel that has a 4-5% tv rating and is like if Fox News and TMZ merged, saying that he had died but that was denied by Viseu city hall which warned about fake rumors. The PSD now needs to pick a candidate for that city and the indications seem to suggest the party will pick Mr Henriques predecessor, Fernando Ruas, as the PSD candidate for mayor of Viseu, who is known as Mr Roundabouts.

1. I see. What a toxic case. I remember Sócrates wrote a pretty hilarious op-ed for some Brazilian outlet somewhere months ago, by the way. I don't know how much his case resembles Lula's, but I hope this Ivo Rosa and the Portuguese courts in general show more integrity than what was seen in Sergio Moro...

2. Yeah, you told me about how it's a tradition for second-term Presidents to have exactly this sort of clashes. I agree with the rest of what you said about the power struggle.
About Rio, what would constitute substantial gains from his point of view?

3. Why is Fernando Ruas known as Mr. Roundabouts?

[Battista Minola 1616]

José Sócrates getting saved by the statute of limitations is something I had not considered, and it leaves kind of a bad taste in the mouth.

[Battista Minola 1616]

José Sócrates getting saved by the statute of limitations is something I had not considered, and it leaves kind of a bad taste in the mouth.

This ruling is just... Infuriating!! You can argue that the DA office has made several mistakes in the accusation but, IMO, the naivety of the judge in many of his statements is just mind boggling. The joke is social media, right now, is that there's no legal prove that Sócrates was even Prime Minister.

I mean, we have seen similar things. Giulio Andreotti got away from his trial for being an accomplice to Mafia crimes with a ruling according to which there was no conclusive evidence that his active collusion lasted beyond 1980 - while the crimes before 1980 narrowly fell under the statute of limitations.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Mr Rio went on to say that the current PS government doesn't want to reform the Justice system as it is "captured by corporate interests" and wants to maintain the status quo. He pressed on by saying that this is the reason parties on the far-right are growing and the only way to fight them is to the system be able to reform itself. He finalized by saying the PSD will continue on a path for reform in the Justice system.

#POPULIST

So Rui Rio is trying to improve the PSD's position by out-populist-ing CHEGA? That's interesting.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Speaking of the incoming 25 de Abril, what is the CHEGA discourse about the national holiday? I have to imagine most 'revisionism' would be found in that segment of the political spectrum, although obviously CHEGA is not a direct heir to a post-Salazarist political tradition (unlike say PP with post-Francoism or FdI with neofascism).

[Battista Minola 1616]

Interesting that Pedro Santana Lopes has actually decided to run. What are his chances? Does his Aliança party even exist anymore? Their result in 2019 was... a big flop.

Also lol, I have lost the count of times Ventura has got sued for offensive comments.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Interesting that Pedro Santana Lopes has actually decided to run. What are his chances? Does his Aliança party even exist anymore? Their result in 2019 was... a big flop.

Also lol, I have lost the count of times Ventura has got sued for offensive comments.

Of all the places in the country where Santana has some kind of a chance is in Figueira da Foz. There seems to be a "somewhat" cult around him there. After he left his party that he created himself, there was an approach from the PSD and Rio, and for a while it seemed that he was going to be a PSD candidate somewhere. Of course, he said he wasn't interested because of the pandemic, but, looking back on that, it seems to me, at least, that what he wanted was the PSD to beg him to run. But, the PSD didn't ate his "begging" and basically said "Oh, you don't want to run? Ok. Bye!". He really wanted to run in Figueira da Foz, but, although there's a "cult" around him there, the local PSD doesn't like him as his tenure as mayor was marked by lots of debt, and the local PSD paid a political price for it. He has a chance because of how popular he is in the city, but, is it enough to win it? I don't know, but it's a race to watch.

Yes, his Aliança party still exists but it's basically a zombie party, right now. They will run some candidates in the local elections, but from what I'm seeing, they are forging a lot of coalitions with the PSD in order to survive. In 2019, Santana didn't offered a single thing other than himself, literally, and his party looked like a PSD 2.0 but with less quality. The result was obvious.

About Ventura, of course, he's already turning this into a political trial as he says "they" want to prove he's a racist and force the ban of the party by the Courts. We'll see how this trial ends.

Oh, I don't think I had realized that Santana Lopes has left Aliança. It does not surprise me in the slightest it is now a zombie party then. I assume he decided that trying to reapproach himself with the PSD made more sense than continuing with a personal party that was did not even manage to enter the Assembly of the Republic. Speaking of his personal popularity or, as you call it, "cult" in Figueira da Foz, what percentage of the votes did Aliança take in the city in 2019? That would be useful.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Hahahahahahaha lmao

Very funny to see CHEGA doglapping the Italian hard right in more ways than one. To be fair, considering how strong Lega and FdI summed together are in the polls now, this is not shocking.

[Battista Minola 1616]

The government is being heavily criticized for not joining or signing an European letter that condemns the attacks on LGBT rights and freedom of expression in Hungary. From left to right, parties are criticizing the government, from the Liberals (IL) who accuse Costa's government of having no credibility and of having a "proximity" to the Hungarian government, to BE who trashes the government by saying that there "cannot be any neutrality regarding human rights". The government explanation is that because Portugal is now in the European Council Presidency, the country needs to be neutral and be a mediator. The Socialist party youth, JS, is also criticizing the government. Others accuse the government of ending Portugal's presidency in the worst possible way, but the foreign minister, Santos Silva, says the whole matter is a "mistaken assessment". 13 EU countries signed this letter condemning Hungary.

Huh, this is surprising. From what I have read the signatories are now 17 and include all the EU countries in Western Europe except for Portugal. Considering that Portugal's mandate at the European Council Presidency ends in a matter of days, is the government going to sign that letter in the next week?

[Battista Minola 1616]

Costa wins over Marcelo and opposition. TC declares unconstitutional increases in social support for independent workers

Almost 4 months after that controversy between President and Prime Minister, the Constitutional Court has delivered their ruling and they have sided with Costa. The Court says the increase in social supports for independent workers is unconstitutional as it violates the "brake standard" that stipulates that Parliament cannot ask for spending beyond what's in the budget. The Court also ruled that social supports given before the ruling cannot be returned.

Ah. This is kind of sad but I guess in the end Costa was vindicated. I wonder if some of the other parties, especially I am thinking of the BE, are using or will use this as an opportunity to bash the Constitutional Court as an unresponsive organism out of touch with the people.

[Battista Minola 1616]

I have not been following this thread recently as much as I used to, but I just want to pop in to ask whether the local elections seem to be headed in a more favourable direction for the PS or for the PSD on the whole, and what this means for Costa's and Rui Rio's future. Also lol at Santana Lopes looking poised to return to the mayoralty of Figueira after so long and finally win an election... what a man.

And obviously, my condolences for Jorge Sampaio. May he rest in peace.

[Battista Minola 1616]

When will the polls close?

Turnout appears to be relatively low even if within normal bounds. Any indications as to whom this might favour?

[Battista Minola 1616]

When will the polls close?

Turnout appears to be relatively low even if within normal bounds. Any indications as to whom this might favour?

Polls close in about 2 and half hours, at 8pm. Exit polls and results will be released one hour later, as polls in the Azores only close at that time.

Turnout is low, not that much, but, yeah, low. The voter registration rolls had an almost 100,000 voter drop compared with 2017, so even if the share % of turnout is basically the same as in 2017, the actual number of ballots cast would be lower.

There's no indications who favours with low turnout. It could benefit either side. In 2019, the low turnout benefited no one as the final result was very similar with the pre election polls. In urban areas, the turnout seems very low, while in more rural areas it seems to be much higher.

Thank you! I'll be waiting.

The bolded is... intriguing. Why is that? Fear of longer lines or COVID in urban, denser areas?

[Battista Minola 1616]

I am also pretty shocked that the PSD is apparently doing so well. Bad night for Costa incoming?

[Battista Minola 1616]

So the PSD has overperformed expectations and most significantly gained back Lisbon to the surprise of all; I reckon this will be interpreted as a rebuke of the incumbent Socialist government, even if it's still a nominal victory for the PS in terms of votes and mayoralties taken. One side thing I am interested in is the result of the CDU, which appears to keep slipping further in its historical Alentejo heartland - it definitely did not reconquer Almada or Beja, and when was even the last time it had not topped the poll in the Setúbal district as a whole? I'm not sure if this is favouring the PS, the PSD/CDS-PP, or even infamously CHEGA.

The Lisbon shock also reminds me of how a good three mayors of Lisbon in the contemporary democratic era have later become either head of government or head of state - before Costa, Pedro Santana Lopes and the late Jorge Sampaio. Medina... will likely not be the fourth in the line.

[Battista Minola 1616]

I have noticed another thing about the CDU - it seems that they often do better at the autárquicas in the Setúbal district than in Beja district, while in parliamentary elections they consistently do noticeably better (and the absolute best of course) in Beja. Why is that? It's a small difference but I feel it can't be random.

[Battista Minola 1616]

- The PSD is quiet. After the surprising results last Sunday, the party which faced an imminent leadership battle, became calm and silent. Rio's main opponents are silent with the media saying they are probably waiting for the party's National Council meeting, in two weeks, to make a final stance. It seems clear the MEP Paulo Rangel will run, possibly with the support of Luís Montenegro and Miguel Pinto Luz, Rio's challengers in 2020, but regarding Rio, some say he will run while others, even within his team, have doubts he will run again;

In the PSD, Luís Montenegro made it official: he will not run for the leadership. In an interview to TSF radio, the former PSD leadership candidate in 2020, said that he's not planning to run again but will support an alternative candidacy against Rui Rio. He adds that despite the good results of the party in the local elections, Mr Rio is no alternative to the PS.

I assume that whatever his opponents (or his team!) say publicly, the surprising results of last week were a huge boost for Rui Rio and made his position much more solid, right? Although even with that I'd still rather be Paulo Rangel than - to pick a totally random name - Carlos Natal. Low bar I know... lol.

[Battista Minola 1616]

So... new autumn, new long drama in negotiations and triangulations with the Left on the budget I see. Now I'm sure the situation is different now that Marcelo is in his second term and I reckon the tension is even higher, but I have a déja-vu to when I was following this thread in October 2020.

Also... Rui Rio may not even run for the leadership again?? Huh, his position was quite weaker than I assumed. The PSD is such a strange party.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Whoa... this is shocking. I will wait and see until Wednesday - I trust this thread's timely updates - but I cannot imagine exactly how things could change in these two days. It seems that Costa has massively failed at triangulating. When would a snap election be held if it happens? Would it conflict temporally with the PSD's leadership election?

[Battista Minola 1616]

And... it has happened. I reckon this is a historic moment. The turns that the whole political situation is taking are quite intriguing and I am sure so many more are to come since a fairly long electoral campaign is inevitably looming on the horizon. I find particularly interesting that Marcelo is being so (unprecedentedly it seems) active - and I'm not talking about being active in paying his bills of course! Anyway, this is obviously not a good outcome but I'll be looking forward to the snap elections as a politics watcher.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Oh well. Guess it is time to start writing obituaries for the CDS-PP. Forty-seven years is a good run, after all.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Popularity ratings:

Inês Sousa Real: 25% Approve; 25% Disapprove
António Costa: 38% Disapprove; 34% Approve
Cotrim Figueiredo: 27% Disapprove; 20% Approve
Catarina Martins: 43% Disapprove; 22% Approve
Rui Rio: 41% Disapprove; 19% Approve
Rodrigues dos Santos: 37% Disapprove; 12% Approve
Jerónimo de Sousa: 46% Disapprove; 16% Approve
André Ventura: 60% Disapprove; 15% Approve

Poll conducted between 28 and 31 October 2021. Polled 803 voters. MoE of 3.46%.

Is there any reason why Inês Sousa Real would be the only party leader without a net negative approval rating? Is it just the fact that PAN is a mostly inoffensive new minor party that seems to always be on the sidelines? I find it especially interesting that she is more well-liked than Cotrim Figueiredo, who should have similar advantages (and indeed, to be fair, both got a much better result than any other non-Costa leader).

[Battista Minola 1616]

Is the reason that Livre did not "break through" unlike the other two new parties that entered Parliament in 2019 an inability to find its own political lane, internal disorganization, or both? And how much did the immediate expulsion of Joacine Moreira matter in all this?

[Battista Minola 1616]

They are basically saying the same thing, but using different words: Rangel talks about "social mobility", while Rio talks about wage increases, perhaps in more detail than Rangel. But, overall, nothing separates them in terms of policy. This race is more about personality and strategy, especially what to do regarding the PS. Both indeed are centrists, in fact Rangel was an ally of Rio, and that's why Rangel's run was badly received by Rio as he wasn't expecting Rangel to do this.

I imagine the respective positioning with regards to the Socialists and alliances will have the most weight with PSD members - after all it seems to be  the main reason Rangel is coded as to the right of Rio.
Incidentally, what lane was Nuno Miguel Henriques intending to take had he also run? Is he also more of a centrist?

[Battista Minola 1616]

So Rui Rio was re-elected after all, but by a very narrow margin, which makes sense to me. Being who I am, my interest was particularly piqued by the maps you posted - thanks as always! - I am trying to see if there are trends in where the respective candidates' support comes from, but it seems so... random. To be fair this does not surprise me since evidently in many rural municipalities it must have been a couple dozen voters at most (on which note, a real troll move would be to produce a map by freguesia). Still, any ideas?