🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

It's now official: Santana Lopes has won Figueira da Foz by a 40-38% margin against the PS. PSD only got 11%.

[Flyersfan232]

Wait this was today?

[Mike88]

Wait this was today?

Yep xD

[Mike88]

RTP is also reporting that the PS is ready to concede Lisbon to the PSD. What.. an... upset.

[VPH]

RTP is also reporting that the PS is ready to concede Lisbon to the PSD. What.. an... upset.

I noticed PS is down a few points in many cities. This seems much more high profile though.

[Mike88]

RTP is also reporting that the PS is ready to concede Lisbon to the PSD. What.. an... upset.

I noticed PS is down a few points in many cities. This seems much more high profile though.

This is a major upset. All of the polls gave Medina, at least, a 7% lead. The PS has also lost some cities to the PSD, and the gap between both major parties has been reduced.

Also, Fernando Medina just conceded and congratulated Carlos Moedas.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The loss of Lisbon must be the real story of the night.

[Mike88]

The loss of Lisbon must be the real story of the night.

No doubt. Totally unexpected, but it's just the "fall off the cloth" of what has been a very poor night for the PS.

[Flyersfan232]

So what do this mean for costa

[Mike88]

So what do this mean for costa

The PS is still the biggest party in terms of mayor, but the expectations were so, so low for the PSD an so high for the PS, that this seems like a surprise "yellow card" to him. This is totally unexpected, it seems like 2001 all over again.

This also ends, probably, Medina's chances of one day leading the PS and being Costa's sucessor.

[Mike88]

Rui Moreira, Porto's mayor, is now speaking. RTP is saying that he has lost his majority.

[Mike88]

Coimbra city: 17/18 parishes counted:

44.2% PSD/CDS-PP/NC/PPM/Alliance/RIR/Volt
32.5% PS
  7.5% CDU
  6.3% CpC
  2.2% CHEGA
  1.7% IL
  1.4% PAN
  0.2% PDR/MPT

[Mike88]

Carlos Moedas is arriving at his headquarters. Rui Rio is also there. Quite a chaotic entry.

[crals]

So it's really happening? What even happened in Lisbon? How did the polls not see it coming?

[Mike88]

So it's really happening? What even happened in Lisbon? How did the polls not see it coming?

It's 2001, all over again. Now, it would be good to know the final margin. The campaigns have the final count, but the official website hasn't release the results yet.

[Mike88]

PS holds Sintra, but loses its majority. 35.3% PS; 27.5% PSD/CDS. CHEGA surpassed CDU in Sintra city.

[Mike88]

In Campo de Ourique parish, Lisbon city, António Costa's son, Pedro Costa, was able to hold to his seat by just 25 votes over the PSD/CDS candidate.

[Mike88]

Cities won by party: (so far)

145 PS
109 PSD
  18 CDU
  18 Independents
    5 CDS
    1 JPP
    1 Livre

Vote share %:

37.1% PS
32.3% PSD
  8.0% CDU
  5.6% Independents
  4.1% CHEGA
  2.8% BE
  1.9% CDS
  1.3% IL
  1.1% PAN
  0.5% Livre
  0.3% JPP
  5.0% Others/Invalid

53.8% Turnout

[Mike88]

And that's a wrap. Going to bed.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

So the PSD has overperformed expectations and most significantly gained back Lisbon to the surprise of all; I reckon this will be interpreted as a rebuke of the incumbent Socialist government, even if it's still a nominal victory for the PS in terms of votes and mayoralties taken. One side thing I am interested in is the result of the CDU, which appears to keep slipping further in its historical Alentejo heartland - it definitely did not reconquer Almada or Beja, and when was even the last time it had not topped the poll in the Setúbal district as a whole? I'm not sure if this is favouring the PS, the PSD/CDS-PP, or even infamously CHEGA.

The Lisbon shock also reminds me of how a good three mayors of Lisbon in the contemporary democratic era have later become either head of government or head of state - before Costa, Pedro Santana Lopes and the late Jorge Sampaio. Medina... will likely not be the fourth in the line.

[Mike88]

So the PSD has overperformed expectations and most significantly gained back Lisbon to the surprise of all; I reckon this will be interpreted as a rebuke of the incumbent Socialist government, even if it's still a nominal victory for the PS in terms of votes and mayoralties taken. One side thing I am interested in is the result of the CDU, which appears to keep slipping further in its historical Alentejo heartland - it definitely did not reconquer Almada or Beja, and when was even the last time it had not topped the poll in the Setúbal district as a whole? I'm not sure if this is favouring the PS, the PSD/CDS-PP, or even infamously CHEGA.

The Lisbon shock also reminds me of how a good three mayors of Lisbon in the contemporary democratic era have later become either head of government or head of state - before Costa, Pedro Santana Lopes and the late Jorge Sampaio. Medina... will likely not be the fourth in the line.

Yes, the media is labeling this as "yellow card" to Costa's government. This was unexpected as were some PS loses during the night, and some PS holds also, Sintra for example were a disappointment for the Socialists. The PSD suffer some loses also, like losing Guarda or Batalha, however. CDU had a really awful night, again. They lost Loures and Moita and barely hold Évora and Setúbal. The scale of the loses was bigger than expected. But CHEGA, didn't perform that well in the Alentejo region, and it was the PSD that surprised by winning 4 towns in Évora district, and polling almost at 20% in Beja city. The CDU fall is favouring the PS in the majority of towns, but the PSD are also picking up some votes. CHEGA is picking a few, but much less than expected.

Medina's prospects took a dramatic turn last night. He was one of Costa's, if not the main one, preferred successor in the PS leadership, and this loss means that it's probably over for Medina. Moedas, on the other hand, become an overnight hero to the center-right and has saved Rio's leadership in the PSD.

Also final results from Lisbon:

34.3% PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT/Alliance, 7 seats
33.3% PS/Livre, 7
10.5% CDU, 2
  6.2% BE, 1
  4.4% CHEGA, 0
  4.2% IL, 0
  2.7% PAN, 0
  0.4% Volt Portugal, 0
  4.0% Others/Invalid, 0

50.9% Turnout

[crals]

Moedas will preside over a very left-wing council, however. The opposition will have to walk a thin line between keeping him in check and avoiding a by-election that would likely favour the Mayor.

[Mike88]

Moedas will preside over a very left-wing council, however. The opposition will have to walk a thin line between keeping him in check and avoiding a by-election that would likely favour the Mayor.

Yes, but I believe the CDU could be the "moderating force". For example, Rio's 1st term as mayor of Porto (2001-2005), had the support of the CDU councillor. We'll see.

[Mike88]

PS barely holds Montijo city (Setúbal district): 29.4% PS; 28.1% PSD/CDS; 19.6% CDU

[Mike88]

2 parishes still to be counted, and here's the almost final state of the parties:

148 PS (-12)
113 PSD (+15)
  19 CDU (-5)
  19 Independents (+2)
    6 CDS (nc)
    1 JPP (nc)
    1 Livre (nc)
    0 NC (-1)