🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Is the reason that Livre did not "break through" unlike the other two new parties that entered Parliament in 2019 an inability to find its own political lane, internal disorganization, or both? And how much did the immediate expulsion of Joacine Moreira matter in all this?

[crals]

Is the reason that Livre did not "break through" unlike the other two new parties that entered Parliament in 2019 an inability to find its own political lane, internal disorganization, or both? And how much did the immediate expulsion of Joacine Moreira matter in all this?

The left-wing camp is pretty crowded, but they found a free lane back in 2019 with minority rights, which Joacine as a disabled black woman embodied very well. Their campaign in 2019 was focused almost exclusively on her and even at the height of the controversy around her the party was polling decently (peaking around 3% iirc). Without her they lost both their USP and whatever publicity they had and are pretty much forgotten about. Perhaps they can find a new lane by campaigning as the constructive party to the left of PS that can be a bridge between them and the far-left.

[Mike88]

Is the reason that Livre did not "break through" unlike the other two new parties that entered Parliament in 2019 an inability to find its own political lane, internal disorganization, or both? And how much did the immediate expulsion of Joacine Moreira matter in all this?

The left-wing camp is pretty crowded, but they found a free lane back in 2019 with minority rights, which Joacine as a disabled black woman embodied very well. Their campaign in 2019 was focused almost exclusively on her and even at the height of the controversy around her the party was polling decently (peaking around 3% iirc). Without her they lost both their USP and whatever publicity they had and are pretty much forgotten about. Perhaps they can find a new lane by campaigning as the constructive party to the left of PS that can be a bridge between them and the far-left.

Exactly. However, I doubt they have any chance at all. The Joacine affair hurt the party deeply and in 2 years they didn't recover and plunge into oblivion. Plus, Rui Tavares, the party's leader, isn't that popular and lets not forget his trainwreck decision of forming a coalition with the PS in Lisbon, just after the whole "Russiagate" thing, that didn't go down well.

[Mike88]

Controversy in PAN as leader Inês Sousa Real denies intensive farming practices in companies she has shares:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1460231943065419781?cxt=HHwWioC-gebN5MMoAAAA

Agriculture: PAN leader denies accusations of intensive agriculture in companies of which she is a partner

PAN leader Inês Sousa Real is fighting against accusations that the farming companies where she has shares and owns parts of it, practices intensive farming. She admits having shares in 2 farming companies but denies that these companies conduct activities of intensive farming, like the use of greenhouses and pesticides, which PAN is against. She is accusing those who are defending this claims, of trying to hurt the party, adding that in these companies no greenhouses are used, but rather tunnels, which, she says is different. Asked about the people working in these companies, Ms Sousa Real said that they are national and foreign workers but that they procede with direct hiring to avoid human rights violations. However, agriculture associations are accusing PAN and Ms Sousa Real of hypocrisy, and that if she has any shame should resign as party leader. Inês Sousa Real already responded to the accusation, saying that the head of CAP, the main agriculture association in Portugal, shouldn't be in his post because he clearly doesn't understand nothing about agriculture.

Also, BE MP Mariana Mortágua is suing CHEGA leader André Ventura for spreading fake news about her:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1460208356019290114?cxt=HHwWhICy6ezw2cMoAAAA

Mariana Mortágua to sue André Ventura for defamation

BE MP Mariana Mortágua is suing André Ventura, CHEGA leader, because of Ventura's sharing of fake news about her. Mr Ventura shared on social media, several posts of a Spanish commentator, close to Vox, Cristina Seguí, that accuses Mortágua of receiving money from the former BES bank. MP Mariana Mortágua has been a leading figure in the investigation regarding the colapse of BES bank in 2014, and the massive money schemes the bank created during years. Ms Mortágua is also suing Cristina Seguí.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV on the PSD leadership:

Q: Best leader for the PSD?

All voters, vote share %:

49.3% Rui Rio
34.3% Paulo Rangel
16.3% Undecided/No opinion

Poll conducted between 5 and 11 November 2021. Polled 612 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

André Ventura tears the Azores agreement because of Rio's rejection of CHEGA in a possible PSD national government:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1461019567644315651?cxt=HHwWhsCstcrjys...

CHEGA withdraws support from the Azores Regional Government in retaliation for Rio

CHEGA leader, André Ventura, has teared the PSD-CHEGA agreement in the Azores, after Rio said in an interview that CHEGA isn't a card in the PSD government strategy because of their current positions. In retaliation, Ventura announced this afternoon, that CHEGA will no longer support the PSD minority government in the Azores. This means that the sole CHEGA MP could vote against the regional budget, to be voted next week I believe, and force its rejection. However, it's still unclear how CHEGA-Azores will react as there has been a lot of internal infighting in the party.

If CHEGA indeed votes against the PSD-Azores budget, the islands could also go to a snap regional election, like the country, in a a few months. Stay tune.

[Mike88]

André Ventura tears the Azores agreement because of Rio's rejection of CHEGA in a possible PSD national government:

However, it's still unclear how CHEGA-Azores will react as there has been a lot of internal infighting in the party.

The sole CHEGA MP in the Azores Parliament, José Pacheco, has reacted to Ventura's decision by saying, to the media, that "all is still premature" and that until Friday he will make a final decision. He added that he will discuss the matter with the regional party and also talk with the President of the Azores government, José Manuel Bolieiro.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership race update:

With less than 10 days left for the ballot, the campaign has been very low profile but with Rio and Rangel giving a lot of interviews, with "subtle" attacks against each other. At the same time, the deadline to pay party fees ended this Wednesday, 17 November, at midnight and 45,512 PSD members will be registered to vote on 27 November. This number shows that around 5,000 more PSD members will be able to vote compared with January 2020. The final number could still increase due to postal payments.

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1460144049503961094

Fees. Members in Madeira risk deciding duel between Rio and Rangel

Porto has, so far, 7,860 registered members, Braga 6,316, Lisbon Metro 5,952, Aveiro 4,491 and Madeira 2,344. These 5 party districts add up to almost 60% of all members registered and will be crucial in deciding the winner. Overall, 53.7% of the 84,764 active party members are registered to vote, meaning those who paid fees in the last two years. In total, the PSD has almost 160,000 members.

In terms of the campaign, the main topics dividing the candidates are the post election scenarios and the party lists for the general elections:

- Rui Rio is open to talks with the PS after the elections. In several interviews, the current PSD leader has said that his goal is to win and form a coalition/deal with IL and CDS, but if he doesn't achieve a majority, as he rejects CHEGA's support, Rio is willing to talk with the PS. He's also open to talk to the PS if Costa wins again all in the name of stability. Regarding the party's lists, Rio has opened the process to organize the lists and has decided that it will be the "president-elect" of the party to name the party's head candidates in each district;

- Paulo Rangel is refusing any talks with the PS, pressing that, if he wins, he will pursue talks with IL and CDS, and like Rio, refuses any talks with CHEGA. Rangel says that he's also willing to govern in a minority and that a vote for the PS is a wasted vote in this election. Regarding the lists, Rangel says he's calm and doesn't understand Rio's hurry adding that there's enough time to organize the party's lists. However, Rangel's campaign is suspicious of Rio's tactics;

Both have traded some attacks: Rio says that Rangel isn't ready to be Prime Minister as you, he says, cannot prepare yourself to be PM in 2 months and trashed Rangel's position of the minimum wage as "similar to PCP and BE". Rangel refutes the criticisms of Rio saying he's ready to be Prime Minister and that he's the real and only alternative to the PS.

In terms of endorsements, Rangel is "crushing" Rio. The big local party structures are all with Rangel and many big profile figures, like Pinto Balsemão, haven't endorse Rio in a sign that Rio is losing support in the party's "barons", plus, one of Rio's deputies, Morais Sarmento, also isn't endorsing either Rio or Rangel. At the same time, polling shows that Rio is the favourite to lead the party within the PSD electorate.

[Mike88]

PAN leader Inês Sousa Real in more hot waters after it's revealed that she may have illegally accumulated jobs while she worked in Sintra city hall:

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1461261899329417217?cxt=HHwWgsC9lZL9uMcoAAAA

PAN leader concealed company and illegally accumulated business with Civil Service

It has been tense days for PAN leader Inês Sousa Real. After it was revealed that she had shares in a Berry plantation that practices intensive agriculture, it's now being revealed that she may have accumulated a job in that same berry company without informing Sintra city hall, where she was also an employee. According to the law this is illegal, but Ms Sousa Real says that nothing illegal was done as her post in the berry company wasn't permanent nor she was paid. She is also accused of irregularly selling her shares, in the same berry company, first to her mother-in-law, who only had the shares for 3 seconds and then sold them to her son, Ms Sousa Real husband. Law experts say that this transaction may be invalid, as it could be seen as a way to bypass the law.

[Mike88]

Azores update:

CHEGA regional MP, José Pacheco, rejects Ventura's decision and will continue to support the PSD regional minority government.

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1461664480866222080?cxt=HHwWgICyrbyG8MgoAAAA

CHEGA MP in the Azores does not follow Ventura's recommendation and secures Government

Quite a blow for Ventura. After his statement that CHEGA should tear up the Azores deal with the PSD, the party's regional MP, José Pacheco, has rejected Ventura's recommendation and will continue to support the PSD/CDS/PPM minority cabinet, for now. The announcement was made in a press conference by the MP, where he said that he's giving "a last opportunity" to the regional government, adding that the talks in the last few days between him and the government were "quite positive". The talks will continue he added but said his budget vote isn't decided yet.

[Mike88]

Changes in the PS: Speaker Ferro Rodrigues will not run for another term, and Justice minister, Francisca Van Dunem, will also leave the government after the elections.

https://twitter.com/cmjornal/status/1461409800642781184

Ferro Rodrigues leaving the Assembly of the Republic

There will be more changes in the PS lists in this snap elections. Costa is preparing to bring new faces for the lists, but, yesterday, Speaker Ferro Rodrigues announced he was not running for another term as MP or Speaker. Ferro Rodrigues is a MP since 1985, with a brief interruption between 2009-2011, and was elected Speaker of Parliament, the 2nd highest figure in the Portuguese State, since 2015.

Justice minister, Francisca Van Dunem, has also announced she will leave the government after the elections:

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1461598641898995715?cxt=HHwWhoCq6ZGO0sgoAAAA

Minister says that a Government to reshuffle was expected and does not want to stay in office if the PS wins the elections

Francisca Van Dunem, Justice minister since 2015, has said she will not accept government posts if the PS wins the 2022 snap elections. However, she did make a strange revelation. She revealed that she agreed with Costa to leave during last summer, and that a government reshuffle was expected for that time of the year. This revelation is contrary to everything PM Costa has been saying about possible reshuffles, which is a matter he always denied he was planning to do.

[Mike88]

2022 election lists: PSD-Madeira approves coalition with CDS in the islands.

The PSD-Madeira leadership approved a coalition between them and the CDS for the January 2022 election the islands and election constituency. According to the deal, the PSD will pick the first 4 candidates in the lists, while CDS will only appear at the 5th place. This means the CDS has almost zero chances of electing a MP in Madeira, just like what happened in 2015 and 2019.

A nationwide PSD-CDS coalition has been discussed but it will most likely not happen as there's no time to negociate it.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership race: Final day to submit candidacies and party motions.

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1462783780838682624?cxt=HHwWgMC9gaeG7cwoA...

PSD Elections. What the motions of Rui Rio and Paulo Rangel say

Today, 22 November, is the deadline to submit candidacies and party motions/manifestos for the leadership ballot next Saturday, 27 November. Rio and Rangel have already delivered their candidacies, but there could be a surprise 3rd candidate, Nuno Miguel Henriques, a PSD member who is councillor in Alenquer cityhall and also is an actor/comedian.

In the manifestos/motions already delivered, by Rio and Rangel, there are some differences. Rio is open to talks with both the left and right, while Rangel refuses any talks with the PS or the left. Rio's manifesto is called "Governing Portugal", while Rangel's is called "Portugal: Ambition and Hope". Rio proposes "a new majority with no red lines" in which he will act in the best interest of the country, and the he wants to focus on reforms on the NHS, the Justice system and fighting corruption. Rangel defends that in order to change the country, the PSD has to change its leader and be a clear alternative to the Socialists. In terms of policies, each motion proposes the following:

Rui Rio:

- Urgent reform in the Justice system;
- Reform in the NHS by mobilizing all health services, public and private, to ensure good services and treatments;
- Corporate tax cuts and reform of the IRS tax system;
- Kindergartens accessible to all children;
- Promotion of school success with focus on rigor and curriculum clarity;

Paulo Rangel:

- Reform of the tax system with tax cuts;
- Focus on wage increases and better qualification and retraining of workers;
- Creation of an anti-corruption agency;
- Prizes for public employees for their productivity and if they save resources/money from the State;
- Focus on social mobility, with policies directed for "more social, intergenerational and territorial justice";

Around 46,000 PSD members are registered to vote in the leadership ballot on 27 November.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership update:

Today, 22 November, is the deadline to submit candidacies and party motions/manifestos for the leadership ballot next Saturday, 27 November. Rio and Rangel have already delivered their candidacies, but there could be a surprise 3rd candidate, Nuno Miguel Henriques, a PSD member who is councillor in Alenquer cityhall and also is an actor/comedian.

The deadline to submit candidacies was 6pm, and only Rio and Rangel will be on the ballot. Nuno Miguel Henriques announced, shortly after the deadline, that he was dropping out from the race for "the good of the party and the country". He added he had enough signatures to be on the ballot, but, after talking with the Rio and Rangel candidacies, he decided to drop out.

A second round is, therefore, ruled out and the PSD will have its leadership situation resolved on Saturday.

[VPH]

It's intriguing that Rangel's policies sound more concerned about poverty and social mobility than Rio's considering he's trying to absorb discontent from Rio's right, not his left. Either way, it seems PSD is going to end up with a centrist. Wonder what Ventura's thinking rn...

[Mike88]

It's intriguing that Rangel's policies sound more concerned about poverty and social mobility than Rio's considering he's trying to absorb discontent from Rio's right, not his left. Either way, it seems PSD is going to end up with a centrist. Wonder what Ventura's thinking rn...

They are basically saying the same thing, but using different words: Rangel talks about "social mobility", while Rio talks about wage increases, perhaps in more detail than Rangel. But, overall, nothing separates them in terms of policy. This race is more about personality and strategy, especially what to do regarding the PS. Both indeed are centrists, in fact Rangel was an ally of Rio, and that's why Rangel's run was badly received by Rio as he wasn't expecting Rangel to do this.

Ventura is getting such a beating from almost everyone, because of the whole Azores debacle, that he's not even appearing or saying that much. xD

[CumbrianLefty]

Ventura is getting such a beating from almost everyone, because of the whole Azores debacle, that he's not even appearing or saying that much. xD

Long may that continue

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

They are basically saying the same thing, but using different words: Rangel talks about "social mobility", while Rio talks about wage increases, perhaps in more detail than Rangel. But, overall, nothing separates them in terms of policy. This race is more about personality and strategy, especially what to do regarding the PS. Both indeed are centrists, in fact Rangel was an ally of Rio, and that's why Rangel's run was badly received by Rio as he wasn't expecting Rangel to do this.

I imagine the respective positioning with regards to the Socialists and alliances will have the most weight with PSD members - after all it seems to be  the main reason Rangel is coded as to the right of Rio.
Incidentally, what lane was Nuno Miguel Henriques intending to take had he also run? Is he also more of a centrist?

[Mike88]

They are basically saying the same thing, but using different words: Rangel talks about "social mobility", while Rio talks about wage increases, perhaps in more detail than Rangel. But, overall, nothing separates them in terms of policy. This race is more about personality and strategy, especially what to do regarding the PS. Both indeed are centrists, in fact Rangel was an ally of Rio, and that's why Rangel's run was badly received by Rio as he wasn't expecting Rangel to do this.

I imagine the respective positioning with regards to the Socialists and alliances will have the most weight with PSD members - after all it seems to be  the main reason Rangel is coded as to the right of Rio.
Incidentally, what lane was Nuno Miguel Henriques intending to take had he also run? Is he also more of a centrist?

Indeed, what's dividing Rio and Rangel is their position regarding the PS, and the need to support them, or ask for the PS support if the PSD wins without a majority. In theory, what Rio proposes could be seen badly by PSD members and hurt him, but in practice, it's unclear as PSD members want power but at the same time want stability, and because Rangel is very vague on this issue and it could also hurt him. At the same time, Rangel accuses Rio of just wanting to be deputy PM of Costa, while Rio accuses Rangel of not being ready to be PM and of just making stuff up.

Nuno Miguel Henriques is more, or would be if he had ran, an "out of the box candidate", as his platform is quite vague and focused on cultural proposals and a "proposed third way" for the party, whatever that means, besides the current liberal/social democratic wings of the party. If he had ran, he would probably poll really low, maybe even below 1%. But actually, Nuno Miguel Henriques is better known for appearing in "gossip" talk shows, reality TV shows and for a series of ads he participated, as an actor, in the mid 2000s: The orange juice ad.; The Vodafone ad.

[Mike88]

Crisis avoided in the Azores: Parliament approves regional budget for 2022.

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1463836563725504519?cxt=HHwWjsCy4army9AoA...

Azores budget generally approved

The scenario of a political crisis in the Azores, just like in the country as a whole, was closed, for the moment, this morning as the regional parliament approved the 2022 budget draft of the PSD/CDS/PPM minority government. The budget had 29 votes in favour (PSD/CDS/PPM+IL+CHEGA+Independent MP) and 28 votes against (PS+BE+PAN). The scenario of a political crisis arose when CHEGA leader André Ventura, advised the regional branch of CHEGA to remove their support for the PSD led minority. The sole CHEGA MP refused to remove his support and decided to continue negotiating with Mr Bolieiro's cabinet. In the end, it paid off and CHEGA voted in favour, against the wishes of Ventura.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %, Rui Rio as PSD leader: (compared with the previous poll)

38.2% PS (-3.1)
32.1% PSD (+7.0)
  7.1% CHEGA (nc)
  5.4% BE (-1.7)
  5.2% CDU (-0.3)
  4.2% IL (-0.5)
  1.9% PAN (+0.1)
  0.8% CDS (-1.2)
  5.1% Others/Invalid (+0.1)

Vote share %, Paulo Rangel as PSD leader: (compared with the previous poll)

39.6% PS (-1.7)
23.9% PSD (-1.2)
  8.4% CHEGA (+1.3)
  5.7% BE (-1.4)
  5.5% CDU (nc)
  5.1% IL (+0.4)
  2.4% CDS (+0.4)
  2.0% PAN (+0.2)
  7.4% Others/Invalid (+2.4)

Q: Best leader for the PSD?

PSD voters, vote share %:

58% Rui Rio
27% Paulo Rangel
15% Undecided

Poll conducted between 10 and 15 November 2021. Polled 625 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

Last session of the 14th Parliament:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1464195431345405952

Parliament meets last plenary. Bloc throws Temido by stressing “resilience” of health professionals

Today is the last Parliamentary session of the 14th Parliament before President Marcelo signs the dissolution papers next week. Several votes have been happening during this week, some that have infuriated the leftwing with the PS voting alongside the PSD in several issues. Some MPs are also saying goodbye, from Speaker Ferro Rodrigues to Cecília Meireles and Telmo Correia, both CDS MPs. During the last debate, there were also criticisms towards Health minister Marta Temido because of her remarks that the NHS has to hire "more resilient professionals". These remarks were very badly received and Ms Temido was forced to retract her statement and apologize.

The parliamentary votes in this last session, or in the last few sessions, that threw some attention are the following:

- Parliament approved the suspension of the abolition of SEF (Border Control Agency) for 6 months, because of the pandemic. This is a very delicate issue as the left is in favour of the abolition, but the right is totally against;
- Parliament gave the government the green light to impose outdoor mandatory masks;
- PS voted alongside the PSD and rejected a PCP bill to fight job precariousness;
- During this week, the PS also rejected a PCP bill to make changes in the labour laws, voting, also, alongside the PSD;
- Parliament extended to 20 days the period of parental grief, from the current 5 days. This vote was unanimous;

[crals]

That poll, wow. Rangel really failed to read the room.

[Mike88]

That poll, wow. Rangel really failed to read the room.

Yeah, the poll results are quite surprising. It's just one poll, though, and the PSD rising trend was already visible, just like in the PS, plus, I also believe this is the best PSD share in a poll in 5 years or so. Also, some Rangel supporters had a meltdown, yesterday, on social media because of this poll. Oh, well.

Now, more seriously, I don't know if Rio's strategy of "stability at all costs", isn't sounding like music to the ears of many voters. Rio is campaigning that he's ready to talk to the PS and/or the right (CDS and IL), in order to have a stable government, the PSD winning or losing. At the same time, the PS is still undecided on which strategy to follow: talk to the right, mend things with the left or bank everything on an absolute majority? Plus, Rangel is also very vague about the "PS talk" issue, and continues pressing on the ludicrous fantasy, IMO, of a PSD absolute majority. Even though Rio's strategy is trashed daily on the media and by his internal foes, amid a pandemic surge, economic anxiety and uncertainty about the future, maybe Rio's speech is just what voters want to hear. That's my view.

That Rangel wasn't reading the room, meaning voters overall, was clear for some time now as no single poll shows him ahead of Rio, even in PSD voters. Now, let's see if the PSD members also read the room, meaning, what polls are saying, of course.

[Josecardoso17]

That poll, wow. Rangel really failed to read the room.

its not very clear what the results will look like...
i would prefer Rui Rio but it seems like Paulo Rangel has some hard support from high PSD figures and regional leaders.
These people control a lot of voters and preferences soo its still a bit to soon to make assumptions.
And these last polls have been called as very strange because the best result for the PSD in some years is right now when the party is in a battle LMFAO