Spanish elections and politics

[Former President tack50]

According to El Mundo, 50% of the vote is already in and Sánchez is in the lead but no one else is reporting that so I'm not sure if that's true

[Former President tack50]

Official website:

http://consultasg.psoe.es/

I think there's already around 70% of the vote in (though there's no overall data that I can find but most places are at that rate)

Thus far:

Sánchez 49%
Diaz: 40.5%
López: 10.5%

Sanchez flips Madrid, Castille-La Mancha, Extremadura and Murcia compared to the endorsements

Also WTF, Patxi Lopez wins in Ceuta XD (unlike what I reported before)

[seb_pard]

Official website:

http://consultasg.psoe.es/

I think there's already around 70% of the vote in (though there's no overall data that I can find but most places are at that rate)

Thus far:

Sánchez 49%
Diaz: 40.5%
López: 10.5%

Sanchez flips Madrid, Castille-La Mancha and Murcia compared to the endorsements

Also WTF, Patxi Lopez wins in Ceuta XD (unlike what I reported before)

Hahahaha great, if this is true, this is very nice! Ceuta is a weird place haha

[seb_pard]

Diaz has congratulated Pedro

What are the odds of a new election? I know Sanchez wants a No confidence motion against Rajoy but will the other deputies follow him?

[Mike88]

Diaz has congratulated Pedro

What are the odds of a new election? I know Sanchez wants a No confidence motion against Rajoy but will the other deputies follow him?

Another election? What for? Polls say the results wouldn't be much different from the June 2016 election. The election of Sanchéz is, my opinion, a huge mistake. He already lost, badly, the 2015 and 2016 election and suggesting a PSOE approach to Podemos is the wrong way to go. I believe the PSOE leadership fight is far from over. The establishment will never accept well Sanchéz and there will be constant battles between both sides.

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez leads in all regions except the Basque Country (Patxi López) Andalusia and Aragón (Susana Díaz)

Diaz has congratulated Pedro

What are the odds of a new election? I know Sanchez wants a No confidence motion against Rajoy but will the other deputies follow him?

Once a year has passed from the last dissolution, Mariano Rajoy can call a new election whenever he wants. However, he's not going to call now because new corruption scandals might hurt the PP electorally. Likely he will try to resist at least a couple of years, in the hope that the economy continues growing and the situation in Europe is more stable. Given that he governs in minority, he had to reach an agreement with C's, the Basque and the Canarian nationalists in order to pass the budget. While C's gave its support in exchange of nearly nothing, the PNV obtained important concessions and the Canarian (there are 2 regionalist deputies: 1 CC and 1 NC elected in the PSOE list) will likely obtain additional investments. I guess the interest of the Albert Rivera party, whose voters come mainly from the PP, is to appear as serious and responsible people that don't put obstacles to the governability of the country, as well as to make clear that they won't allow that the Podemos populists can govern. Also, there are intermittent rumours on a new election in Catalonia, but it's not in the interest of premier Carles Puigdemont to call because his party (PDCat, formerly CDC) is in bad shape. As for the motion of confidence, it's a Podemos initiative and is not supported neither by the PSOE nor by C's. Now that Pedro Sánchez is back, he will have to make a decision. I think it's not likely that the PSOE is going to back Podemos on that, but Sánchez has promised to move the party to the left and trying to cooperate with the Podemos people. We'll see.

[Velasco]

Diaz has congratulated Pedro

What are the odds of a new election? I know Sanchez wants a No confidence motion against Rajoy but will the other deputies follow him?

Another election? What for? Polls say the results wouldn't be much different from the June 2016 election. The election of Sanchéz is, my opinion, a huge mistake. He already lost, badly, the 2015 and 2016 election and suggesting a PSOE approach to Podemos is the wrong way to go. I believe the PSOE leadership fight is far from over. The establishment will never accept well Sanchéz and there will be constant battles between both sides.

Neither Sánchez nor Díaz were good candidates in my opinion. Possibly the best (or the least bad) option was Patxi López. Sánchez has stated that he wants to follow the Portuguese patch. Why do you think that approaching Podemos is a bad thing? The letwing vote is divided in almost equal parts between the reds and the purples. Days of hegemony are over, despite the wishes of Susana Díaz. The only way that PSOE can govern is with the help of Podemos.

[Former President tack50]

Pedro Sánchez leads in all regions except the Basque Country (Patxi López) Andalusia and Aragón (Susana Díaz)

Diaz has congratulated Pedro

What are the odds of a new election? I know Sanchez wants a No confidence motion against Rajoy but will the other deputies follow him?

Once a year has passed from the last dissolution, Mariano Rajoy can call a new election whenever he wants. However, he's not going to call now because new corruption scandals might hurt the PP's electorally. Likely he will try to resist at least a couple of years, in the hope that the economy continues growing and the situation in Europe is more stable. Given that he governs in minority, he had to reach an agreement with C's, the Basque and the Canarian nationalists in order to pass the budget. While C's gave its support in exchange of nearly nothing, the PNV obtained important concessions and the Canarian (there are 2 regionalist deputies: 1 CC and 1 NC elected in the PSOE list) will likely obtain additional investments. I guess the interest of the Albert Rivera party, whose voters come mainly from the PP, is to appear as serious and responsible people that don't put obstacles to the governability of the country, as well as to make clear that they won't allow that the Podemos populists to govern. Also, there are intermittent rumours on a new election in Catalonia, but it's not in the interest of premier Carles Puigdemont to call because his party (PDCat, formerly CDC) is in bad shape. As for the motion of confidence, it's a Podemos initiative and is not supported neither by the PSOE nor by C's. Now that Pedro Sánchez is back, he will have to make a decision. I think it's not likely that the PSOE is going to back Podemos on that, but Sánchez has promised to move the party to the left and trying to cooperate with the Podemos people. We'll see.

My bet is PSOE abstains on Podemos' vote of no confidence (as opposed to voting yes/no) so it fails anyways. However, shortly after PSOE and Podemos begin to plan one, maybe alongside the Catalan parties (promising a referéndum).

Alternatively there's the Cs+PSOE+Podemos route like in Murcia, but just like in Murcia it's only good for making the new president an interim one who will only dissolve parliament and call a new election, so unless there's a new PP scandal involving Rajoy, I don't see it.

[Former President tack50]

Antonio Hernando (PSOE speaker in the Congress of Deputies) has resigned from his position. Not a huge surprise, Sánchez already said he was going to replace him if he won, so he probably just resigned as the less embarrassing option.

For those who don't know, Hernando was pro-Sánchez back on the day, but then became pro Diaz.

Edit: Just realised that Susana Diaz has become the 4th woman to run for PSOE leader and fail. Before her came:

- Former minister of work Matilde Fernández (2000)
- Then Leader of the PSOE representation in the European Parliament Rosa Diez (2000)
- Then minister of defense Carme Chacón (2012)

In this sense, she kinda becomes the Spanish Hillary Clinton as "woman supported by the establishment who fails". (the 3 before weren't the officialist candidates, especially the first 2)

[Mike88]

Diaz has congratulated Pedro

What are the odds of a new election? I know Sanchez wants a No confidence motion against Rajoy but will the other deputies follow him?

Another election? What for? Polls say the results wouldn't be much different from the June 2016 election. The election of Sanchéz is, my opinion, a huge mistake. He already lost, badly, the 2015 and 2016 election and suggesting a PSOE approach to Podemos is the wrong way to go. I believe the PSOE leadership fight is far from over. The establishment will never accept well Sanchéz and there will be constant battles between both sides.

Neither Sánchez nor Díaz were good candidates in my opinion. Possibly the best (or the least bad) option was Patxi López. Sánchez has stated that he wants to follow the Portuguese patch. Why do you think that approaching Podemos is a bad thing? The letwing vote is divided in almost equal parts between the reds and the purples. Days of hegemony are over, despite the wishes of Susana Díaz. The only way that PSOE can govern is with the help of Podemos.

I agree with you. Patxi Lopéz was the best option of the 3 but, at the same time, not a very good one. Podemos is toxic and any approach of PSOE to them will be very harmful. Iglesias will, with high certainty, try to push PSOE so much to the left that it will lose the center ground and this will make many moderate voters and politicians to break with PSOE, making the PSOE split like the French PS. PSOE needs a strong leader and message to decrease the power and influence Podemos has right now and, also, PSOE has to turn the paper and be them influencing and threatening Podemos, not the other way around.

The Portuguese solution cannot be repeated in Spain, because of what i explained above, but the path the PS is doing could be an example for the PSOE. Mr Costa has, basically, stolen the PSD/CDS economic and fiscal ideas like tight budget control, more emphasis on exports than imports, less public investments and because these policies are, right now, delivering a good economy and a good deficit reduction, which are very popular, the BE/PCP are just swallowing dry because any criticism will hurt them. Also, having a reformist agenda like Macron could help PSOE draw a line with PP, as they could argue that they are offering solutions while PP is trying to defend those sleazy people in court.

[Velasco]

I'm afraid you may be right in what regards the party establishment and the chronification of infighting. As for the dangers of an alliance with Podemos, they are real and it's obvious that Pablo Iglesias will try to push Sánchez further to the left and, at the same time, to exploit the situation in his own benefit. The risk of an implosion in the PSOE is real too, but remember that the popularity of Hollande plummeted because he campaigned as a leftwing politician and governed in a different way. I mean, the problem with socialdemocracy in these days is related with a loss of credibility. Obviously I must agree on the need of a strong leadership. Also, the situation and the balance of forces is different in Spain and Portugal, but Sánchez always mentions the Portuguese example.

Anyway Susana Díaz was by no means the solution for the PSOE. Furthermore, the support that ambitious apparatchik who yearns for the years of the PSOE hegemony (the Felipe González era: 1982-1993) has among the party establishment is a signal of fear, bewilderment and lack of response. On Pedro Sánchez behalf, there is a certain sociologist and PSOE member called Félix Tezanos who says the following (approx translation): "The PSOE needs a strong revulsive, a step change to reconcile the party with the society, after a leadership crisis that lasts for too long". Mr. Tezanos thinks that Pedro Sánchez has grown up and that the shameful way in which he was isolated and ousted, as well the unconditional surrender of the provisional leadersship to the PP, created the conditions for a catharsis. According to him, Sánchez has reborn and comes back with great strength. Also, he hopes that Sánchez will be able to reconnect with the urban and young voters in order to decrease gradually the influence of Podemos: "Dealing with the age gap must be the center of our politics. If the PSOE is able to connect again with the youngsters (...) Podemos will be at 15% and it will be possible to reach reasonable agreements with them. If we are stagnant with an old style leadership, it would be us the ones that may be at 15%".

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20170514/422552182775/detras-de-sanchez.html

[Mike88]

Well, will see if Sanchéz has changed. Until now, his statements and moves don't seem to show any change. What Félix Tezanos is somewhat i said but i don't agree that PSOE should reach agreements with Podemos. I think with the right message, PSOE can all but destroy Podemos.

Let's see. Podemos main weapon since the beginning is the corruption in Spanish politics. If PSOE or even Sanchéz, i don't think so, but who knows, steals that weapon from Podemos and, for example, tries to tackle corruption within PSOE and propose legislation or actions to prevent corruption, that could help to rehabilitate the party's image. Plus, fiscally responsible policies and reforms in the economy, need to be on the top priorities for PSOE. One of the main criticisms made of social democratic parties is that they are fiscally incompetent and that they create more debt and deficit. Putting forward fiscally moderate and responsible policies will, with little doubt, turn PSOE an even more stronger alternative. If they can be fiscally responsible, prove that they can use taxpayers money carefully, and that they learned from the mistakes of third-way policies that spend, spend will be paid by something, PSOE, like many other social democratic parties, can rise up again. And they need to campaign with this platform. Voters like when politicians offer them real solutions and are truthful in what they are proposing.

I believe this could be a good path for PSOE.  

[Velasco]

My opinion is that at this point PSOE and Podemos cannot destroy each other, so they are condemned to reach an understanding. As for the "fiscal responsibility" I'm not particularly fond of that expression, without implying that I'm in favour of spending like there were no tomorrow.  I think that the case of Spain was not one of "fiscal irresponsibility". Let's say that, at the start of the financial crisis, the Zapatero administration had an erratic behaviour. The combined effect of denial of reality with frantic and pointless measures alongside with the sudden turn in the economic policies, constitutional express reform included, was devastating for the PSOE. However, the debt percentage in relation with GDP was low during the Zapatero terms, even though it rose in the final years and the regional debt was underestimated. It was under the Rajoy's "fiscally responsible" administration and its public spending cuts when the debt ratio to GDP surpassed 100%.

Corruption is not the Podemos only weapon, although is an important factor. The surge of Podemos is related too with the lack of expectations affecting the younger generations, including many people with a good training or education, in a country with one of the highest unemployment rates of Europe. The surge of the indignados movement and later the emergence of Podemos created a temporary feeling of illusion and connected many young and/or disillusioned people to politics. That feeling has gone for the most part and Podemos is stagnant or in a soft decline, but it's going to be very hard to kill.

[Zinneke]

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20170521/422796264745/susana-diaz-solo-gana-dos-comunidades.html

Pretty clear landslide. 

[Former President tack50]

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20170521/422796264745/susana-diaz-solo-gana-dos-comunidades.html

Pretty clear landslide. 

To be fair Andalucia has 1 in 4 PSOE members so it's not that big of a landslide. End result was 50-40-10.

Sanchez performed slightly better in terms of percentage compared to 2014 (when he got 49%)

[Former President tack50]

And IMO Sanchez's election is a bold move. The PSOE has a lot to gain, but also a lot to lose.

If Sanchez is seen as believable and as a true leftist that isn't a radical one, they have a good shot at taking some of the more conservative Podemos voters (those on the Errejón side of the party). They will lose some voters to Cs (or possibly to abstentions) on the right, but not as many as they'd win on the left. Depending on how many net votes they win, they might even have a chance at winning the election! (something like PSOE 29%, PP 28%, Cs 16% Podemos 16%)

However  if it's seen as "just another move from obsessed egocentric Sanchez to become PM", then PSOE will lose those centrist voters while not gaining any left wing ones. Maybe even getting to Cs levels.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Where do Colau, Carmena etc stand in the PODEMOS dispute? Perhaps if Sanchez really wanted to undermine Pablo, he could try and poach them  into his fold next eletcion?

[Former President tack50]

Where do Colau, Carmena etc stand in the PODEMOS dispute? Perhaps if Sanchez really wanted to undermine Pablo, he could try and poach them  into his fold next eletcion?

No idea. I think Carmena is on the moderate side of the party while Colau has her own party and stuff (Podemos' alliances can get really complicated really fast). As for PSOE stealing either, I don't see that as an option.

For Carmena I'm not even sure if she'll run for reelection as she is quite old already. She's 73, would be 75 in 2019 and 79 if she finished a second term. But if she does I doubt that she'll betray Ahora Madrid. Of the 2 she is the likelier to move to PSOE but that's still extremely unlikely as she's been in the far left her entire life (she was a candidate for MP for the Communist Party in 1977 for example)

As for Colau, I think she is going to run for governor of Catalonia in the next regional election there. She'll run with her own party (en Comú), with her candidacy being supported by ICV (weird mix of greens and IU) and Podemos, like Cat si que es pot back in 2015. Last poll I checked had Colau in a tie for second with the Cs candidate Inés Arrimadas, both at 16%.

However, Colau will not support PSOE either.

[Velasco]

Remember that Ada Colau and Manuela Carmena are not Podemos members and they are officially neutral. Carmena is an independent and is generally regarded as a moderate. I think that the Colau people has a more fluent relationship with the Errejón faction. I'm not sure that Ada Colau is going to run in the next election in Catalonia. I think she wants to finish her term as Mayor of Barcelona. In case of a snap election the candidate could be Xavier Domenech, who was the top candidate for Barcelona in the general election and is the leader of the new party created by the merger of Barcelona En Comú (the Colau party), ICV, EUiA (the IU branch) and Podemos.

[Nanwe]

Where do Colau, Carmena etc stand in the PODEMOS dispute? Perhaps if Sanchez really wanted to undermine Pablo, he could try and poach them  into his fold next eletcion?

No idea. I think Carmena is on the moderate side of the party while Colau has her own party and stuff (Podemos' alliances can get really complicated really fast). As for PSOE stealing either, I don't see that as an option.

For Carmena I'm not even sure if she'll run for reelection as she is quite old already. She's 73, would be 75 in 2019 and 79 if she finished a second term. But if she does I doubt that she'll betray Ahora Madrid. Of the 2 she is the likelier to move to PSOE but that's still extremely unlikely as she's been in the far left her entire life (she was a candidate for MP for the Communist Party in 1977 for example)

Carmena has ruled out running again so many times lately that I can't count. Also, iirc, Carmena has a difficult relation with the Podemos members of her municipal team.


After yesterday's primaries, I think it's a great time to bring this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tF8b50DVamw

[Velasco]

Indeed, Manuela Carmena has no intent of running again. I think her relationship has been more difficult with the people of Ganemos Madrid (Guillermo Zapata, Celia Mayer). Her number two is Rita Maestre (Podemos, Errejón faction) and my impression is that they have a more fluent relationship, although not without differences. However, other councilors from Podemos prefer to go it alone without asking Carmena. Apparently the Podemos leadership is displeased with said councilors, as well gave instructions to the membership in order to close ranks with Carmena. They think that undermining the moderate Carmena damages their chances of being part of a government of Spain.

After yesterday's primaries, I think it's a great time to bring this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tF8b50DVamw

Poor Susana...

[Velasco]

El País: "Catalonia to immediately declare independence if no referendum held"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/05/22/inenglish/1495435474_319567.html

[Nanwe]

El País: "Catalonia to immediately declare independence if no referendum held"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/05/22/inenglish/1495435474_319567.html

They've gone nuts. If the leaked draft is true, they'd literally end separation of powers by directly appointing judges in the interim. And declaring independence if there's no referendum assumes that they have a mandate to do so - and they don't based on the votes of the previous autonomic election or polls lately.

It's an incredible leap into the unknown and I feel like a lot of noise is going to be coming from the PDECat's more autonomist wing about this nonsense.

Also, mapped the primaries.

[DavidB.]

That doesn't work, presumably because it's Imgur. Perhaps you could save it in your gallery on your Atlas profile, that always works.

[Velasco]

The motion of no confidence sponsored by Podemos will be discussed by the Congress of Deputies on June 13. Pablo Iglesias would be the alternative candidate for Prime Minister. However, after the results of the PSOE leadership contest were known, Pablo Iglesias offered Pedro Sánchez to withdraw if the reelected socialist leader submits another motion by himself.

The victory of Pedro Sánchez puts an end to the PP-PSOE policy of "national consensus", says Enric Juliana in La Vanguardia

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20170523/422819390453/fase-de-ignicion.html

According to El País, the draft of the Catalan government would allow press control during the referendum

http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/05/23/inenglish/1495524055_616252.html

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In related news, Carles Puigdemont was in the Madrid City Hall

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