Israel-Gaza war

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sderot seems to be a particular Hamas target this time around

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sderot seems to be a particular Hamas target this time around

Probably has more to do with proximity than anything else.

Yeah, that seems likely. It's less than a mile from Gaza, I never heard of it until now but given its location I'd be shocked if it was completely unscathed in this sort of event.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I am still waiting for the collective West media to somehow come up with an argument that Putin is to blame for this.  I can think of the logic to get to that conclusion but I am sure they will come up with something.

no

Like clockwork.  This is the head of https://european-resilience.org/
https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1710592188415975760

Link is broken, at least for me. Still, this seems legit, I googled "European Resilience" and this was the third result.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyway, this situation is broadly grim and I hope people at least wish for the lowest possible body count out of this.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't know what to expect at this stage, but the drones angle to this means this will be closely watched by military professionals for how they perform in a surprise war sort of situation.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Total war it is.

Invasion of Gaza?

_{(honestly we've gotten to the point that 'liberation' would be a more appropriate word, especially from the POV of ordinary Gazans)}

I wouldn't be surprised if this expands to Iran given they probably helped

If iran was behind it, surely Hezbollah would probably be involved or taking advantage of the situation, given they are Tehran's proxy forces. Instead they seem just as taken by surprise as anybody else.

indeed, they aren't even sure what excuse Hamas is using for this escalation

Hezbollah congratulated Hamas on Friday, praising the attack as a response to “Israeli crimes” and saying the militants had “divine backing.” The group said its command in Lebanon was in contact with Hamas about the operation.

I guess all the previous times Hamas escalated they didn't have "divine backing".  Mo (pbuh) must have been busy with something else.

I've seen speculation that forces opposed to KSA-Tel Aviv normalization urged Hamas to do this, in hopes of scuppering it as a possibility. I would not necessarily assume that Hamas and Israel are the only two parties with any hand in this occurring.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Well, all Netanyahu's recent dicking around probably hasn't helped here has it?

Yeah, I was thinking that same thing. Obviously, indiscriminate attacks against civilian targets, (what Hamas is doing here) are unacceptable and Israel has the complete right to defend itself against that.

But I can’t help but feel that Bibi’s far-right buddies and treatment of the Palestinians hasn’t played a role or factor in Hamas’ decision making here. Especially when you consider the rhetoric coming from people like Ben Givr and others high up in the government. Hamas may have done this under some “protect the Palestinians” thing.

If nothing else, the behavior of the Israeli military and politicians towards Masjid al-Aqsa fuels dislike of them among ordinary people in the region. I can assure you that things like that specifically do very little to win them goodwill. It would be very hard to think of a proper analog for that specifically that could translate to an American context in serving as something equally offensive to Americans, in fact, it would hard to find anything at least on par with it. Holy sites are holy sites.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In the Land of Milk and Honey, it seems the Golden Rule has long since been forgotten. The results of this are now being seen once more.
Pessimism is the reasonable baseline assumption until we see a general, sustained upwards turn and de-escalation and a retreat from ludicrously irrendetist mindset for both parties here, as well as unification behind reasonable leadership.
That is not likely to happen. Until either community gets their act together and figures out how to share instead of saying "more clay!" through action if not in words, these kind of crises can continue to happen.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Some saying why would Hamas do this, killing Israeli-Saudi Arabian relations normalization. Given the statement below, it might work.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1710637884800110898?s=46

Translation of the last two paragraphs from Arabic to English:

"The Kingdom seeks an immediate halt to the escalation between the two sides, the protection of civilians, and the exercise of restraint

The Kingdom recalls its repeated warnings of the dangers of the situation exploding as a result of the continued occupation and deprivation of the Palestinian people of their rights"

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

3 certainties in life: death, taxes, and any discussion about Israel being toxic as f**k

True.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Can we not wish death on each other please? I know emotions on this topic can get intense, and a lot of raw feelings get released, but just because someone has a different opinion from you on this topic does not give you the right to act like this.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hamas captured a base on the border with tanks in it
https://twitter.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1710636390009233767

If true, how much personnel the Israelis were able to retreat with would be rather important. Israeli doctrine emphasizes survival of tank crews as very important. You could always give a surviving tank crew another tank. It's far harder to replace experienced men than fighting vehicles.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hamas is posting tons of images to telegram of Israeli civilians they killed in cold blood. They have no idea how bad they f-ed themselves and the pr blow to sympathies in the West this will be

This could quickly into a "why can't they both lose" sort of thing for many people. Especially if the Israeli response is to try to level Gaza.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Austria is changing Ukraine flags to Israel.   I guess there can only be one "the current thing" at a time.

The optics of a German country standing with Hamas in this conflict being as awful as they are makes it very unsurprising that Austria would have done this.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We still don't have information that Israelis have regained full control over settlements where Hamas and factions entered. I'm very surprised about weakness of Israeli army shown today.

Fog of war is in place and it will take time for things to settle.
I do agree a bit, tentatively, that the Israeli military might well be overrated in its capabilities. But we shall see.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

MODERATOR WARNING: I understand how this thread can quickly become heated and respect that different people have differing views and opinions on the matter. However, any kind of inappropriate posts, including support for indiscriminate killing of civilians, and severe personal attacks against other posters will not be tolerated. This thread has been cleaned up and several posts deleted, most without infraction. As much as reasonably possible, please keep discussion on-topic and respectful.

For making several extremely inappropriate posts cheering on indiscriminate killing of civilians, MATTROSE94 has been muted from this board from 24 hours.

DavidB stated in a post, he wished for my death in my native language.

English is the main language of this forum but is posting in another actually against the rules?

No. But wishing someone death in another might be.
Of course, the post involved was deleted already.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A thought: what does Hamas really see as its core constituency? What does it see as its goals? We should not look at this purely from the perspective of territory, we should think of this in terms of political goals achieved or flunked, or neither (and not just short-term ones).
Even a conventional defeat might play into Hamas' hands, as Bibi and co could have difficulty getting their goals through in both Gaza and West Bank simultaneously, and the Arab World would be more outraged at what Israeli military actions unfold in Gaza than at Hamas' actions. If its mojo of fighting the Israelis is in better shape than at the start, and they aren't completely smashed, this might even be a net win outcome for Hamas, given they oppose normalization, and value cred as a premier anti-Israeli force in the eyes of the Arab street.
Of course, a messy outcome leaves room for both Hamas and Bibi to end up as net winners in the short-term. Long-term, is another story.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Everyone please refrain from fighting and making useless posts here. Keep it for updates and analysis.

What do you think about my above post re: Hamas? I greatly appreciate feedback.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Dumb move by Palestine but I’ll not shed fake tears for Israel considering all the history of this conflict either. That’s exactly what they were waiting and hoping for, some excuse to get into direct war without getting too bad of a PR in the West. Would honestly be wonderful if both sides could lose. We’re talking about an imperialist apartheid regime oppressing an Islamic theocracy that violates the human rights of minorities.

Naturally, the Western and White Imperialist countries will side with Israel because that’s who they identify with better and the Islamic Dictatorships will side with Palestine because it’s the one culturally closer to them as well.

Yeah, that's exactly what we expected from you. If only there was some unifying factory between Ukraine and Israel that would explain this at the moment.

Israeli support for Ukraine has been very tepid. Weren't they at one point floated as a neutral location for peace talks?

Yes. And they did host talks more than once I think.
To be clear, I do not think any less of Israel because of its stance on the war. But it is what it is. They have their own interests to look after. But enough about Russia-Ukraine, that is all.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This thread garnered up 15 pages in not even a day.

But in all seriousness, I stand with Israel and its people.

15 pages in 12 hours.
It will probably reach page 25 on the same day. We shall see.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

People might be getting ahead of themselves here in predicting Hamas' demise. It being a problematic organization with many problems isn't a bar to it being able to replace its losses.
Israel can severely, severely hurt Hamas and Gaza if it really wants to, but actually taking Gaza completely and destroying Hamas completely is an entirely different thing.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I have 0 expertise on this but it looks like a final suicide act from the Hamas right? There is no way they will be able to survive this.

What do the experts think of that?

There are strong indications this is linked to normalization efforts, but nothing is known for sure. It also seems that tensions relating to the Dome of the Rock had a major part to play. Nonetheless, whatever caused this, it is certain to end with misery higher than when it began. For both Israelis and Palestinians.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lebanese news An-Nahar: Egypt has informed Israel that if they launch a ground assault on Gaza then Hezbollah joins on the side of Hamas

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Russia's statement here is rather telling. They can't afford to look too pro-Israel or pro-Palestinian, so instead they take a middle path and attack US influence instead.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/ArielKallner/status/1710769363119141268
Never heard of this guy before, but politicians openly using the term 'Nakba' like this is plainly...how you describe this? Unhelpful?

Turn off the enemy now!
This day is our Pearl Harbor.
We will still learn the lessons.
Right now, one goal: Nakba!
A Nakba that will overshadow the Nakba of 48.
Nakba in Gaza and Nakba to anyone who dares to join!
their Nakba, because like then in 1948, the alternative is clear.

Because there is no turning back, and there is no other way,
There is no nation that will withdraw from the pits of its life

May God protect the security forces.
Netzah Israel will not lie! 🇮🇱

(Google Translate  Hebrew -> English)