France 2017: Results Thread

[Tender Branson]

In Montreal, there's a 1.5 mile long line of voters outside the consulate:



Wouldn't it be better to allow postal voting for French voters abroad ?

[Tender Branson]

I assume that ca. 600k French abroad (excl. Overseas territories) will vote and Macron gets 85% of their vote and net more than 400k votes ...

[Tender Branson]

Fun comparison:

France will have some 38 million votes cast today.

CA and TX, who also have a population of 67 million, had just 23.6 million votes.

[Tender Branson]

Polls are now open in France.

[Tender Branson]

Guys, it would also be nice not to post leaks or early exit poll results or anything from the Belgian/Swiss TV or newspapers.

Just post the links and not the actual results/leaks.

Thx.

[Tender Branson]

Guys, it would also be nice not to post leaks or early exit poll results or anything from the Belgian/Swiss TV or newspapers.

Just post the links and not the actual results/leaks.

Thx.

Especially since they would be fake anyway.

The Belgian/Swiss stuff is usually not fake ...

[Tender Branson]

Historical turnout figures for each department at 12:00 and 17:00 (Tour 2 is the important one):

http://www.interieur.gouv.fr/Presse/Dossiers-de-presse/Dossier-de-presse-de-l-election-du-President-de-la-Republique-2017/Annexe-n-6-les-taux-de-participation-au-scrutin-de-l-election-presidentielle-de-2002-2007-et-2012-par-departement-en-metropole

And the turnout figures by department in round 1:

http://www.interieur.gouv.fr/Actualites/L-actu-du-Ministere/Election-du-president-de-la-Republique-2017-Premier-tour-Taux-de-participation-a-17h

[Tender Branson]

Historical turnout figures for each department at 12:00 and 17:00 (Tour 2 is the important one):

http://www.interieur.gouv.fr/Presse/Dossiers-de-presse/Dossier-de-presse-de-l-election-du-President-de-la-Republique-2017/Annexe-n-6-les-taux-de-participation-au-scrutin-de-l-election-presidentielle-de-2002-2007-et-2012-par-departement-en-metropole

And the turnout figures by department in round 1:

http://www.interieur.gouv.fr/Actualites/L-actu-du-Ministere/Election-du-president-de-la-Republique-2017-Premier-tour-Taux-de-participation-a-17h

So where are the numbers for round two of 2017? I don't see them on either of those links.

It's not noon yet in France. So no turnout figures yet ...

[Tender Branson]

According to live Twitter reports of various precincts, turnout so far seems to be stable (maybe slightly less than in the 1st round). The plurality of reports show a decrease of 1-2%, but some also have higher turnout.

In 1 hour, the Interior Ministry will release official estimates for noon.

[Tender Branson]

Noon turnout comparisons (excl. overseas):

Le Pen's 10 best departments in round 1 (first round turnout, compared with second round turnout)

27.63 - 28.30 Aisne (+0.67)
23.35 - 28.61 Pas-de-Calais (+5.26)
35.14 - 35.93 Haute-Marne (+0.79)
24.32 - 21.02 Ardennes (-3.30)
30.88 - 30.79 Meuse (-0.09)
30.78 - 27.87 Haute-Saône (-2.91)
26.30 - 25.63 Oise (-0.67)
23.47 - 27.57 Vaucluse (+4.10)
30.42 - 31.32 Var (+0.90)
29.07 - 32.49 Somme (+3.42)

[Tender Branson]

Macron's 10 best departments in round 1 (first round turnout, compared with second round turnout)

24.24 - 21.79 Paris (-2.45)
23.93 - 22.59 Hauts-de-Seine (-1.34)
27.01 - 29.30 Ille-et-Vilaine (+2.29)
24.80 - 26.42 Finistère (+1.62)
27.49 - 22.53 Yvelines (-4.96)
25.54 - 27.65 Loire-Atlantique (+2.11)
21.21 - 19.84 Val-de-Marne (-1.37)
29.52 - 29.79 Côtes-d'Armor (+0.27)
28.84 - 30.53 Morbihan (+1.69)
35.91 - 31.07 Puy-de-Dôme (-4.84)

[Tender Branson]

In Le Pen's 5 best departments from round 1, with the most absolute votes, turnout so far is stable in Nord (her best region with 382.000 votes), down a lot in Bouches-du-Rhône, and up moderately in Pas-de-Calais, Var and Seine-Maritime.

In Macron's 5 best departments from round 1, with the most absolute votes, turnout so far is down moderately in Paris (his best region with 375.000 votes), stable in Nord, down slightly in Hauts-de-Seine, up slightly in Rhône and also up moderately in Loire-Atlantique.

[Tender Branson]

Melenchon's best department Seine-Saint-Denis has a massive drop in turnout (was at 23.93% in round 1, is just at 19.54% now).

[Tender Branson]

According to live Twitter reports of various precincts, turnout so far seems to be stable (maybe slightly less than in the 1st round). The plurality of reports show a decrease of 1-2%, but some also have higher turnout.

In 1 hour, the Interior Ministry will release official estimates for noon.

A quick check of Twitter precinct reports again shows that turnout is now down significantly in a plurality of reports (minus 2-6%). Some still see comparable turnout, but virtually none show an increase.

Let's see if the 5pm turnout report from the Interior Ministry shows the same.

[Tender Branson]

Melenchon top 10 departments and change in turnout, would be interesting

I'll post full Top-10 numbers/comparisons for Macron/LePen/Fillon/Melenchon areas after the 5pm numbers are out.

[Tender Branson]

This seems to be the typical French voter of today: Martine from Rennes (who voted for Melenchon in the 1st round, but for Macron this time).

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This is supported by the polls, which said that 60% only voted for Macron today because they want to block Le Pen, while 40% said they are voting for him with conviction. For Le Pen, it's the other way around.

[Tender Branson]

I've read somewhere on Twitter that New York City was 97% Macron, 3% Le Pen.

[Tender Branson]

Booooom ! What a spanking.

Meanwhile BFMTV/Elabe projects:

 

[Tender Branson]

Le Pen almost won New Caledonia:

52.6% Macron
47.4% Le Pen

[Tender Branson]

Incredible how well Norbert Hofer did compared with that woman.

If Chancellor Faymann didn't resign a few days earlier, then ...

No reason to eyeroll. Think about it: He lost with 49.7% of the vote and if unpopular Faymann didn't step down, he might have won. Well, not might have, he would have.

[Tender Branson]

Woah, the NYT map is hurting my eyes.

Are they really using blue for Macron and orange for Le Pen ?

[Tender Branson]

Incredible how well Norbert Hofer did compared with that woman.

If Chancellor Faymann didn't resign a few days earlier, then ...

No reason to eyeroll. Think about it: He lost with 49.7% of the vote and if unpopular Faymann didn't step down, he might have won. Well, not might have, he would have.

Not questioning your logic, just the placement of such analysis is strange as usual in a non-Austrian related thread.

Only because it's relevant. People compare it all the time with Trump and Brexit, so a Hofer-comparison is also legitimate.

[Tender Branson]

Time to get rid of the myth that nationalist choices always have better polling results than polls show. It actually works both ways: Brexit and Trump on one side but Le Pen and Hofer on the other. It only creates unpredictibility.

59-41 for Macron, with over 6 million votes counted, of some about 35 million expected.

Not just Le Pen and Hofer; according to this tweet by Nate Silver, this is the sixth European election in a row where the nationalist candidate under-performed their poll numbers.

Not a surprise: People around here see the calamity that is Trump and fear for their country's reputation abroad.

[Tender Branson]

Just saw that the latest results with 99.99% reporting are:

66.1% Macron
33.9% Le Pen

...

I predicted 66.3% Macron and 33.7% Le Pen, just a 0.2% difference !

[Tender Branson]

Le Pen won only 2 departments ?

Not all that surprising considering her 2-1 loss France-wide, but still weird ...