France 2017: Results Thread
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May 07, 2021, 06:10:00 PM

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  France 2017: Results Thread
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Author Topic: France 2017: Results Thread  (Read 105327 times)
Hash
Hashemite
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« on: April 22, 2017, 08:59:41 PM »

Use this thread only for results and related analysis. This thread will be open for the first round and second round. The main thread and predictions will be closed sometime tomorrow and reopened after the first round.

Basic rules of this thread, in addition to forum and board rules:
-Keep the discussion about results and all related analysis. Keep the discussion on topic.
-Do not post rumours you know or assume to be false.
-As in past elections, do not post exit polls/results projections before the official French time (8pm/2pm EST etc.). Some people don't want to have suspense or whatever ruined by leaked numbers, which you can easily find elsewhere on the internet without needing to tell the rest of the world about them. If you wish, you can post these leaked exit polls/results projections in tiny font.
-No references to Austria
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Hash
Hashemite
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« Reply #1 on: April 23, 2017, 09:04:10 AM »

Thread opened. Try not to behave like five year olds.

Keep in mind all the above rules, particularly:
-As in past elections, do not post exit polls/results projections before the official French time (8pm/2pm EST etc.). Some people don't want to have suspense or whatever ruined by leaked numbers, which you can easily find elsewhere on the internet without needing to tell the rest of the world about them. If you wish, you can post these leaked exit polls/results projections in tiny font.
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Gary J
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« Reply #2 on: April 23, 2017, 09:12:08 AM »

Continuing the discussions about the assassination of French Presidents.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Doumer

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: April 23, 2017, 09:18:59 AM »

Use this thread only for results and related analysis. This thread will be open for the first round and second round. The main thread and predictions will be closed sometime tomorrow and reopened after the first round.

Basic rules of this thread, in addition to forum and board rules:

-No references to Austria

That fully depends on the results after 8pm and not on what our local thread "dictator" wants ...
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Beezer
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« Reply #4 on: April 23, 2017, 09:21:23 AM »

So a moratorium on discussions in light of the fact that the other thread has been closed?
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #5 on: April 23, 2017, 09:24:21 AM »

Thread opened. Try not to behave like five year olds.

Keep in mind all the above rules, particularly:
-As in past elections, do not post exit polls/results projections before the official French time (8pm/2pm EST etc.). Some people don't want to have suspense or whatever ruined by leaked numbers, which you can easily find elsewhere on the internet without needing to tell the rest of the world about them. If you wish, you can post these leaked exit polls/results projections in tiny font.

Some people shouldn't be on an election board on Election Day if that's the case...
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jaichind
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« Reply #6 on: April 23, 2017, 09:24:33 AM »

Any good links to results that updates realtime?
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Tirnam
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« Reply #7 on: April 23, 2017, 09:39:54 AM »

National commission of polls: poll published yesterday by La Libre Belgique is a fake
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Zinneke
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« Reply #8 on: April 23, 2017, 09:46:41 AM »

I have to say this is a poor move, and not just because it attracts unnecessary attention for a superficial change.

The 8pm results may not be worth as much as previously so I really cannot see why we are not to discuss leaks and who reports what. Overseas results are already known in some parts for example so it gives those places a bit of airtime on here before the Hexagone takes over with all the bs that comes with it.

That said, i hope this issue doesn't take up the first few pages.

National commission of polls: poll published yesterday by La Libre Belgique is a fake

What about their exit poll today?
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Tirnam
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« Reply #9 on: April 23, 2017, 09:50:52 AM »

The pollsters have been really clear: there is no exit poll.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #10 on: April 23, 2017, 09:52:31 AM »

Yeah, an "exit poll" conducted at 2pm would make a lot of sense when you've got an additional 6 hours to vote ...
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Progressive
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« Reply #11 on: April 23, 2017, 09:52:44 AM »

Can someone provide me a primer of how poll results work in France.

*Do polls close at 8pm (France) 2pm (Eastern), or is that when results come out?
*I've heard there is no exit poll but I see places providing exit data. What's the deal?
*Do results trickle in like in the US, precinct by precinct?

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Zinneke
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« Reply #12 on: April 23, 2017, 09:57:08 AM »

Yeah, an "exit poll" conducted at 2pm would make a lot of sense when you've got an additional 6 hours to vote ...

Yeah, they qualified that in the article. But what i mean is : Did they do it themselves or did they also take it from a fake source like the Swiss.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #13 on: April 23, 2017, 10:04:22 AM »

Turnout at 5pm: 69.42% (-1.17)

Remember polls this time close in the major part of polling station one hour later, that drop is not significiant in my view
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #14 on: April 23, 2017, 10:05:18 AM »

Still heading for a nice 80% turnout ...
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Barnes
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« Reply #15 on: April 23, 2017, 10:07:03 AM »

Well it looks like my American-level turnout projection will be proved wrong, thankfully!
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #16 on: April 23, 2017, 10:08:01 AM »

Well it looks like my American-level turnout projection will be proved wrong, thankfully!
That may be accurate for the runoff depending on who gets in
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #17 on: April 23, 2017, 10:08:50 AM »

Can someone provide me a primer of how poll results work in France.

*Do polls close at 8pm (France) 2pm (Eastern), or is that when results come out?
*I've heard there is no exit poll but I see places providing exit data. What's the deal?
*Do results trickle in like in the US, precinct by precinct?

A) Both. Many polls close at 7pm, but some bigger cities keep theirs open until 8pm. After 8, the results come in.

B) "Just to clarify, estimates released by pollsters at 8pm are based on real results from samples of 250-300 polling stations, not exit polls. At previous elections polling stations outside big cities closed at 6pm giving pollsters two hours to crunch data. This year they have <1 hr."

C) Usually yes, if I remember the Interior Ministry page correctly.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #18 on: April 23, 2017, 10:11:16 AM »

Turnout projections:
-Ifop: 81%
-Ipsos: 78%
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #19 on: April 23, 2017, 10:22:29 AM »

Bouches du Rhône (Marseille) is at 70.7% turnout.
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Bumaye
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« Reply #20 on: April 23, 2017, 10:24:53 AM »

Turnout projections:
-Ifop: 81%
-Ipsos: 78%
 
 
Very bad news for Fillon and good for Macron and Mélenchon, isn't it? Since their base was less sure to vote.
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NeederNodder
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« Reply #21 on: April 23, 2017, 10:30:15 AM »

https://twitter.com/jmpfaff/status/856153383446695936

Google trends look good for Mélenchon and Macron.
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #22 on: April 23, 2017, 10:32:05 AM »

Ah, same situation as Dutch election where turnout is unexpected high. VVD and D66 had more seats than expected. While GL and PVV underperformed a bit compared to the polls. I dont think Fillon would benefit from higher turnout. But I think Macron will
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Beezer
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« Reply #23 on: April 23, 2017, 10:32:21 AM »

Too much tea leaf reading for my taste...
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Barnes
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« Reply #24 on: April 23, 2017, 10:34:10 AM »

Well it looks like my American-level turnout projection will be proved wrong, thankfully!
That may be accurate for the runoff depending on who gets in

Well it's not really surprising that the turnout is improved, really. There was pretty considerable distaste with the candidates and the campaign leading voters to show they would abstain when they eventually bucked up and voted.

Not that I take any reading from turnout as a projection of results, but voter apathy is the rot that sets in on democracies.
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