France 2017: Results Thread

[Tender Branson]

Deindustrialization and the tension because of the Calais camp probably helped her.

Just saw that the latest results with 99.99% reporting are:

66.1% Macron
33.9% Le Pen

...

I predicted 66.3% Macron and 33.7% Le Pen, just a 0.2% difference !

Overseas voters might push it up to 66.4-66.6


Hoping for 66.6 because symbolism.

Nope, there are only some 150K votes left to be counted from overseas.

Actually, Macron is at 66.04% right now - so with all that is left (very pro-Macron), he'll only get to 66.1% max.

[Tender Branson]

Don't know if this has been posted overnight, but La-Croix has a nice map:

http://www.la-croix.com/France/Politique/carte-resultats-second-tour-lelection-presidentielle-2017-05-07-1200845137

[Tender Branson]

Nope, there are only some 150K votes left to be counted from overseas.

Actually, Macron is at 66.04% right now - so with all that is left (very pro-Macron), he'll only get to 66.1% max.

I think he meant the French Abroad vote. I'm pretty sure they will push him up to at least 66.5%.

Yeah, I was talking about the French Abroad vote. It's almost completely in. There's only 140K left if you look at the Interior Ministry page. It's 99.99% counted.

[Tender Branson]

Nope, there are only some 150K votes left to be counted from overseas.

Actually, Macron is at 66.04% right now - so with all that is left (very pro-Macron), he'll only get to 66.1% max.

I think he meant the French Abroad vote. I'm pretty sure they will push him up to at least 66.5%.

Yeah, I was talking about the French Abroad vote. It's almost completely in. There's only 140K left if you look at the Interior Ministry page. It's 99.99% counted.

What page are you looking at?

http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2017/FE.html

Take a look at "inscrits" in both rounds.

Compare the current 2nd round figure (47.448.929) with the final of the 1st round (47.582.183):

It means that only 140.000 eligible votes are not yet younted. The vast majority of the French abroad vote is already accounted for in the overall results, even though the total numbers weren't posted yet.

[Tender Branson]

Actually, the "inscrits" figures have usually shifted between the two rounds - both downwards and upwards, depending on the election. I have no clue why that is, but they did. So there might be a couple more votes left (or a couple less).

True. Usually the number of registered voters in the two rounds are about the same (+/- 50K), and considering French abroad only have a 50% turnout, there are only some 70k real votes left that were cast.

No big deal.

Macron will go no higher than 66.1% anymore.

[Tender Branson]

At least the pollsters were right; I guess we Americans should engage French pollsters in 2020. LOL.

Were they ?

They were off by 2-5%.

American pollsters actually did a better job nationally with Clinton/Trump (off by 1) ...

In Ille-de-France for example, pollsters said Macron will beat Le Pen by 68-32.

He beat her by 79-21 ...

[Tender Branson]

Macron wins the French abroad with 89-11.

I estimated it at 85-15 before the election.

[Tender Branson]

Fun side-fact:

Macron's winning margin over Le Pen (32.2%) was the same as Hillary's winning margin over Trump in Hawaii (32.2%).

CA for slightly closer (H+30%).

Vienna was VdB+31.4%.

[Tender Branson]

Fun side-fact:

Macron's winning margin over Le Pen (32.2%) was the same as Hillary's winning margin over Trump in Hawaii (32.2%).

CA for slightly closer (H+30%).

Vienna was VdB+31.4%.

Where can I find the results by... precinct(?) for overseas voters?

I guess there was a link from an embassy somwhere in this thread which listed all the results for each country. You need to check the pages after round 1.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting: Austrian-Frenchies had one of the highest turnouts in Europe or worldwide: 63%.

Macron beat Le Pen 93-7.

[Tender Branson]

Somehow weird that Congo-Brazzaville doesn't have any French votes - considering it was a French colony. I thought there'd be at least a few French people left there.

The other grey areas are understandable though.