France 2017: Results Thread (user search)
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Author Topic: France 2017: Results Thread  (Read 140069 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #25 on: April 26, 2017, 06:25:44 AM »
« edited: April 26, 2017, 10:16:19 AM by Hash »

Macron Seen Having Poor Start to 2nd-Round Campaign: Harris Poll

(Bloomberg) -- French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron failed to successfully start his campaign for the second round of elections, according to a majority of French voters surveyed in a poll by Harris Interactive.
52% of those polled considered that Macron failed in the start of his campaign
61% considered that National Front candidate Marine Le Pen had a successful start to her second-round campaign
Of those polled, 43% consider that Macron was wrong to celebrate his 1st-round victory at Paris restaurant La Rotonde, 35% have no opinion, 22% consider he was right to celebrate.
Doesn't matter, his floor is similar to Ma Ying-jeou's performance in 2008 (58.45).

Yeah, Le Pen can only get to 45% with extremely low turnout and/or an increased amount of Fillon/Melenchon/Dupont voters backing her somehow.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #26 on: April 26, 2017, 07:09:35 AM »

It seems like the candidates outside the top 5 go 8.74% of the vote.  This is very surprising. I would figure given a near 4 way tie for first two spots there would be significant tactical voting.  Dupont-Aignan vote share is shocking and much to the loss of Le Pen and Fillon.

Yeah, I thought the smaller candidates would get 4% combined, not 9%.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #27 on: April 27, 2017, 12:10:24 AM »

Quote from: Restricted
You must be logged in to read this quote.

The survey only includes the following options:

* vote for Macron
* vote invalid
* stay at home

No "vote for Le Pen" option.

Via Le Monde.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #28 on: April 27, 2017, 03:04:57 AM »

I hope Macron gets his act together in the next days because the factory trip yesterday, in which the workers booed him and embraced Le Pen (who was there at the same time), had really bad optics. Just as his victory party after round 1 ...

On the other hand, workers are a decreasing share of the electorate everywhere. It might have been enough for Trump in the US and almost enough for Hofer in Austria (Austria is a very working class country), but it's definitely not enough for Le Pen in France. Still, Macron shouldn't get too complacent.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #29 on: April 27, 2017, 05:41:01 AM »

OpinionWay:

59% Macron
41% Le Pen

Le Pen gains 6% compared with a week ago, Macron loses 6%.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #30 on: April 29, 2017, 06:46:03 AM »

Just announced:

Dupont-Aignan would become Le Pen's PM, if she *somehow* wins.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #31 on: April 29, 2017, 08:53:01 AM »

He'll probably write in "myself", "Melenchon", "Lenin", "Fidel Castro" or "Hugo Chavez" or something and therefore cast an invalid vote.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #32 on: April 29, 2017, 09:17:18 AM »

Just announced:

Dupont-Aignan would become Le Pen's PM, if she *somehow* wins.

The political death of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. RIP

He got 5% in the first round, his best result yet. What else should we expect from him ? Becoming PM under Le Pen would be his career highlight and his best bet.

Anyway, it would be great to see a new Elabe poll. They were the best in round 1.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #33 on: May 01, 2017, 09:29:51 AM »

IFOP:

59% Macron (-1)
41% Le Pen (+1)

Turnout: 72% (Le Pen-voters: 85%, Macron: 82%, Hamon: 74%, Fillon: 73%, Melenchon: 63%)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #34 on: May 01, 2017, 11:37:20 AM »

Kantar/Sofres:

59% Macron (-2)
41% Le Pen (+2)

By round 1 vote (left):



Interesting that among non-voters in round 1, Macron leads slightly. That means a surge in turnout wouldn't benefit Le Pen, but rather hurt her. Not by a lot, but still.

Also, only 36% of Macron runoff voters are voting for him with conviction while 64% are voting for him to block Le Pen.

53% of Le Pen voters are backing her out of conviction, 47% to block Macron.

http://www.lci.fr/elections/exclusif-sondage-2e-tour-macron-donne-vainqueur-a-59-face-a-le-pen-2050576.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #35 on: May 01, 2017, 12:26:49 PM »

The May Day wasn't as calm in Paris today as it was in Vienna, with police officers getting attacked with molotow cocktails by left (?)-wing protesters. Some police officers got heavily injured. The leftist unions called on voters not to vote for either Macron or Le Pen ...

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #36 on: May 02, 2017, 05:53:51 AM »

Pretty stable.

I still doubt she'll get 40% in the end. Maybe not even 35%. I wonder if the debate tomorrow changes the polls. Macron will likely attack her on the plagiarized speech.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #37 on: May 03, 2017, 02:39:28 AM »

Does anyone know if the debate tonight will be shown on the English version of France24 ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #38 on: May 03, 2017, 11:20:18 AM »

Ipsos, Cévipof, Le Monde poll by regions

PACA:
Le Pen 50.5% - Macron 49.5%

Hauts-de-France:
Macron 50.5% - Le Pen 49.5%

Grand-Est:
Macron 52.5% - Le Pen 47.5%

Bourgogne-France-Comté:
Macron 54.5% - Le Pen 45.5%

Normandie:
Macron 56.5% - Le Pen 43.5%

Occitanie:
Macron 56.5% - Le Pen 43.5%

Centre-Val de Loire:
Macron 57% - Le Pen 43%

Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes:
Macron 60% - Le Pen 40%

Nouvelle-Aquitaine:
Macron 63% - Le Pen 37%

Pays de la Loire:
Macron 64% - Le Pen 36%

Bretagne:
Macron 69% - Le Pen 31%

Île de France:
Macron 69% - Le Pen 31%

The results given by the Le Monde reporter was a little bit different (51,5 in paca for Le pen) but it's ok. I think that Paca will be better.

31 % in Ile de France is not so bad...

50.5% for Le Pen is correct.

Here is the full release for all regions:

http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/doc_associe/notices_techniques_cevipof14_12_regions.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #39 on: May 03, 2017, 02:48:52 PM »

The translation is really crappy.

What was that "motherhood" and "children being left to die on the street" thing about ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #40 on: May 03, 2017, 03:15:05 PM »

So who does everyone think is winning so far?

Macron is holding up well and LePen is only appealing to her base and not much beyond.

I guess Macron will easily bring his 60-40 lead over the finish line.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #41 on: May 04, 2017, 01:30:17 PM »

So I just read this whole thread and boy was it bad. I hesitated a bit, but I isolated the absolute worst post of all, here it is :
He'll probably write in "myself", "Melenchon", "Lenin", "Fidel Castro" or "Hugo Chavez" or something and therefore cast an invalid vote.
Boy that was bad.

Can't handle the truth ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #42 on: May 04, 2017, 11:58:22 PM »

Elabe (100% post-debate)Sad

62% Macron (+3)
38% Le Pen (-3)

http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/politique/elections/apres-le-debat-presidentiel-emmanuel-macron-creuse-l-ecart-sur-marine-le-pen_1905272.html

It's over.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #43 on: May 05, 2017, 01:00:35 AM »

Suffolk University poll (pre-debate)Sad

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Do you feel the country is headed in the right direction or is on the wrong track?

19% Right
68% Wrong

Favourable Ratings (French candidates)Sad

25-71 Hollande
42-54 Melenchon
33-62 Hamon
42-52 Macron
27-70 Fillon
27-69 Le Pen

12. In the election for president on May 7th, do you plan to vote for {ROTATE} Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen? ... {IF UNDECIDED} will you vote blank or are you undecided?

47% Macron
31% Le Pen
15% Blank/Neither
  7% Undecided

(excl. blank and undecided)

60% Macron
40% Le Pen

16. What is your opinion of the European Union – generally favorable or unfavorable?

65% favourable
31% unfavourable

17. Do you think France should vote to withdraw from the European Union like the United Kingdom did?

21% Yes
74% No

Favourable Ratings (Major international politicians)Sad

13-82 Trump
19-43 Xi
20-71 Putin
70-23 Merkel
16-35 Farage
90-08 Obama
34-41 May
31-21 Klaver

...

Quote
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http://suffolk.edu/news/71794.php#.WQwU_biaXgA
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #44 on: May 05, 2017, 01:12:19 AM »

I don't believe for a second that 52% of French people have a clue who Jesse Klaver is.

Well, the question asks:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

So they will have an impression of him, just based on the poll information. And many just hear "Green-Left" and already have a positive or negative impression of that person.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #45 on: May 05, 2017, 06:30:43 AM »

So a pollster randomly ask the French their opinion about someone who got 9% of the vote in a Dutch election? GreenLeft came in fifth, Klaver is not a major international politician.

It's disgusting that Trump's approval rating is lower than Xi's or Putin's. Sure, Trump is terrible but he is not a brutal dictator (he probably dreams of becoming one though).

I agree, they should have polled President Alexander Van der Bellen instead ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #46 on: May 06, 2017, 01:58:41 AM »

Probably won't stop the Flawless Beautiful Landslide Sunday, but still kind of creepy.

Don't worry.

This will massively backfire on Le Pen and the voters will wipe her out on Sunday. I really strongly doubt the French are as stupid to vote based on anything in these hacks. Turnout will likely increase to around 78-80% because of the hack and the people of France will deliver a solid spanking to her.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #47 on: May 06, 2017, 04:04:44 AM »

As for the weather tomorrow, it will be rainy or cloudy in the Eastern and Northern areas where Le Pen did well and rather friendly and sunny in the South-East and East where Macron will do well:

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #48 on: May 06, 2017, 07:57:59 AM »

So what time, in EST will:

*Polls open
*Polls close

Polls will open at 8am local time (2am Eastern) and close in the more rural parts at 7pm (1am Eastern) and in the bigger cities at 8pm (2pm Eastern). There will be a first projection at 8pm, after all polls have closed.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #49 on: May 06, 2017, 11:26:19 AM »

Turnout at noon in overseas territories:

Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon: 26.45% (+1 compared to the first round)
Guyane: 19.92% (+0.99)
Martinique: 19.53% (+5.6)
Guadeloupe: 20.89% (+3.24)

Nice.

Hopefully it will hit 80% tomorrow, so that Macron can spank Le Pen really hard.
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