Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[YPestis25]

If Putin was that sane, he would focus on getting the Russian economy back to health.

BTW, so far this crisis is an economic bonanza for Russia.  The surge in energy prices and the weakening of the RUB have been a massive boost for Russian finances.  Even if Russia does a full-scale invasion and takes some losses they will most likely make a financial profit on this entire affair.  Clearly, in the long run, you cannot devalue your way to prosperity and this economic bonanza will translate into higher inflation just like Spain discovered when it got all that gold and silver from the New World.  But in the short run as long as Russia has access to sell its energy this entire crisis is working out great for Russian finances and economy.

This seems a bad take. Modern war is just not profitable pretty much ever.

[YPestis25]

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1496670465879941120

Rubio being pretty specific, he must know something.

Is he in some security Commitee? Even if not, I'd imagine he'd know a lot of people who are in the loop 24/7.

Vice Chair of Senate Intel Committee.

[YPestis25]

https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1496472039108009987

Ethnic minorities? As in Russians?

I'm a bit skeptical of that.

Tatars presumably.

For what it's worth, I'd be leery of trusting anything that Jon Cooper tweets.

[YPestis25]

An attack on Moldova seems incredibly unlikely, I wouldn't put much stock in twitter rumors until we get some actual confirmation.

[YPestis25]

All I'll say is that it's terribly easy to post about how brave you'd be in a war from the comfort of your living room.

[YPestis25]

“It was Sam's first view of a battle of Men against Men, and he did not like it much. He was glad that he could not see the dead face. He wondered what the man's name was and where he came from; and if he was really evil of heart, or what lies or threats had led him on the long march from his home; and if he would rather have stayed there in peace.”

[YPestis25]

If these fools were in charge in 1941, we'd still be weighing an oil embargo against Japan by the time they attacked Pearl Harbor.

[YPestis25]

Lol is Bilaps just explicitly rooting for Russia?

[YPestis25]

A lot of revision and mindless "ASIATIC HORDES BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER" which was a common German trope during WWII.

Ukraine has been in mobilization since the conflict started, and it has shown to be hugely effective. There has been no indication Russia can't do this yet, so spare your conclusion for the war already.

lol - Russia has been unable to properly supply or equip their smaller "professional force", so it stands to reason that they will not be able to supply or equip conscripts.

As for your Ukraine comment, it should be evident why a nation mobilizing for national defense would tend to be much more effective than a nation mobilizing for a foreign adventure.

[YPestis25]

https://twitter.com/UKR_Report/status/1572636848458964992

KnowYourMeme/Simpsons

[YPestis25]

Absolute savages.

https://twitter.com/htTweets/status/1581609133983535104?t=3pDAbpWket7lOkA-3zr3zw...

If Ukraine was so concerned about sexual assault why did it let out Ruslan Onishchenko, leader of the "Tornado Battalion", back in July to fight at the front
https://focus.ua/voennye-novosti/521825-osuzhdennyy-za-pytki-byvshiy-kombat-tornado-onishchenko-vyshel-na-svobodu-eks-nardep

Der Spiegel had a 2015 article documenting the sexual assault activities of the  "Tornado Battalion"
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-prozess-gegen-pro-ukrainischer-kaempfer-a-1045801.html

If this is your response to a state sponsored strategy encouraging systemic sexual terror then I have nothing to say to you.

[YPestis25]

I have doubts any one side can position themselves as somehow "principled" on this issue.

Show me a concerted Ukrainian strategy to weaponize rape. I'll wait.

Not everything is a "both-sides-do-it" issue. Sometimes, just sometimes, there is an absolute right and an absolute wrong.

[YPestis25]

https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/russian-oligarch-visits-istanbuls-bosphorus-177789

"Russian oligarch visits Istanbul’s Bosphorus"

Harbinger of future foreign living locations of Russian oligarchs? Clearly it will not be London

Broke: Russia is invading to conquer Ukraine.

Woke: Russia is invading as a diversion for their ultimate plan to acquire the Straits.

[YPestis25]

Russia embracing it's Soviet past on occupied territories.

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1646198316688982026

So....do conservatives actually believe this is a good thing? Like today the modern right actually wants to celebrate the Soviet Union's historical legacy?

XXI century alignments have nothing to do with XX century ones because the world changed. I never understand why people cannot let go of cold war days and accept they are over, in the past. The narrative of XXI century so far is China and the rise of multipolarity order.

In the world of today, social issues have gained a much bigger predominance in the public debate, for instance. And that makes a lot of difference.

As an economic leftist and progressive nationalist, sometimes I have way bigger disagreements with the liberal sector of the left than with some nationalist conservatives for example.

People get confused as hell with communists and the far-right aligning on some matters these days but forget that both are side by side on the top half of the political compass.

XX century logic: left-right on political compass
XXI century logic: auth-lib on political compass

Which is how liblefts became popular with the mainstream, they’re mixed with a bunch of neolibs. No wonder media loves the hell out of them.

Imgur/Arrested Development

[YPestis25]

While I’ve given into the temptation to respond to him from time to time, as always it is simply better to put Woodbury on ignore.

[YPestis25]

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but Wagner defecting from Russia will have disastrous effects on Russia's global power projection. Not an insignificant chance that Russian influence in much of West Africa simply collapses in the coming weeks.

[YPestis25]

For all his talk of 1848 and March 15th, Orban sure loves to bow down to Russian autocrats.

[YPestis25]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1699779179519349036

The actual reporting is even worse:

Musk’s decision, which left Ukrainian officials begging him to turn the satellites back on, was driven by an acute fear that Russia would respond to a Ukrainian attack on Crimea with nuclear weapons, a fear driven home by Musk’s conversations with senior Russian officials, according to Isaacson, whose new book is set to be released by Simon & Schuster on September 12.

Musk was soon on the phone with President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, the chairman of the joint chiefs, Gen. Mark Milley, and the Russian ambassador to the US to address anxieties from Washington, DC, to Moscow, writes Isaacson.

Meanwhile, Mykhailo Fedorov, a deputy prime minister of Ukraine, was pleading with Musk to restore connectivity for the submarine drones by telling Musk about their capabilities in a text message, according to Isaacson. “I just want you—the person who is changing the world through technology—to know this,” Fedorov told Musk.

If this is true, it seems pretty incontrovertible that Musk has become a security threat to the United States, and something will need to be done about it.

[YPestis25]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-president-says-ukrainian-grain-row-wont-significantly-affect-relations-2023-09-22/

"Polish PM tells Ukraine's Zelenskiy 'never to insult Poles again'"

Of course your post ignores this part:

"I have no doubt that the dispute over the supply of grain from Ukraine to the Polish market is an absolute fragment of the entire Polish-Ukrainian relations," Duda told a business conference.

"I don't believe that it can have a significant impact on them, so we need to solve this matter between us."

As well as the context that much of this hullabaloo is being driven by election pressures, and not a real split - but never let facts get in the way of a good narrative!

[YPestis25]

I do not care either way.   In terms of WWII history, I am fairly revisionist, and while I still lean toward being more pro-Allies than pro-Axis I am fairly empathetic to the Axis point of view.  Still, this sort of action seems inconsistent with the state values that Trudeau would project.

I'm sorry, what?