2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Spectator]

Apparently Adam Frisch is running again in 2024.

Figured he would, but I don’t think he is the strongest option. Could win anyway though if Colorado  trends continue.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/michelle_shen10/status/1624049219613990912

The DCCC should be going all out recruiting Anthony Brindisi. Not getting him back in the race when Katko announced his retirement was one of the biggest blunders they made last cycle.

They got two state senators in the area that would probably instantly put it at a tossup.

[Spectator]

Why can't Cook and Crystal Ball just leave OH/NC as is for now. There hasn't been any changes, and we don't know what changes will look like. Can't you just rate them as they are right now, and then update them later? Seems messy to just say "oh we'll just stick them here and give them different ratings bc we don't know what will happen"

I disagree with a bunch of the Lean Rs... Ciscomani, Nunn, James, Bacon, Kean, and Kiggans should all be tossup IMO.

And yet Cartwright and Wild don’t get the same benefit of the doubt.

Also they think presidential turnout will help Boebert in her Trump/Polis seat but not CA-47 Dems in a Biden/Dahle seat.

It is really weird. If CA-47 is a tossup, I think they are assuming a year that is way more Republican-friendly than the rest of these seats would predict. Why doesn't Cartwright get the same benefit of the doubt as Bacon? He's held on in a similarly tough seat cycle after cycle.

I do think Nunn, James, Bacon, Kean and Kiggans starting out as Lean R (until we see their oponents) is a defensible call, but Ciscomani and Boebert is a weird one to lump in with them.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1634277726981967875

On what planet are Yadira Caraveo and Gabe Vasquez in toss-up races? Biden won both districts and Vasquez ousted an incumbent in a Ronchetti district.

Since after WA-03 and MI-07 (I’d say that starts at Tilt D), there aren’t many options to choose from for blue seats to put into the tossup category. They probably wanted to throw a couple on so as not to be accused of bias.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1634277726981967875

On what planet are Yadira Caraveo and Gabe Vasquez in toss-up races? Biden won both districts and Vasquez ousted an incumbent in a Ronchetti district.

Since after WA-03 and MI-07 (I’d say that starts at Tilt D), there aren’t many options to choose from for blue seats to put into the tossup category. They probably wanted to throw a couple on so as not to be accused of bias.

Most will just go for the PA seats.

I guess there’s an argument, but even with Mastriano and Oz bearing the ticket down, it was still in a midterm with 8% inflation and Biden at 40% approval. Cartwright and Wild had no business holding on, but did anyway. I think they start at Lean D.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1634277726981967875

On what planet are Yadira Caraveo and Gabe Vasquez in toss-up races? Biden won both districts and Vasquez ousted an incumbent in a Ronchetti district.

Since after WA-03 and MI-07 (I’d say that starts at Tilt D), there aren’t many options to choose from for blue seats to put into the tossup category. They probably wanted to throw a couple on so as not to be accused of bias.

Most will just go for the PA seats.

I guess there’s an argument, but even with Mastriano and Oz bearing the ticket down, it was still in a midterm with 8% inflation and Biden at 40% approval. Cartwright and Wild had no business holding on, but did anyway. I think they start at Lean D.

In a lot of states 2024 won't be as good of an environment for Democrats as 2022. The level of persuasion achieved is just not possible in a presidential year, especially with Biden still being relatively unpopular. Biden would be winning the PV by 10 with that level of persuasion and that seems pretty unlikely. On the national level it will be a better year for Dems, but Shapiro and Whitmer powered blue waves in their states and in 2024 it will now be Biden's performance instructing the down ballot races.

Cartwright is in a Trump seat and Wild is in a Biden +1 seat. Those are about as tossup-y as it gets. Cartwright's been losing his crossover appeal, doing worse than 2020 despite a better or equal environment in PA is not a great sign for him. If PA is D +1 in the Presidential race again, he would likely lose. Wild is in a better position because her seat is bluer, but Shapiro and Fetterman both won her seat by a lot more than she did. She should beat Scheller in any case, the GOP should find someone else.

The same thing is true in Michigan. The environment in Michigan was extremely good for Democrats and it's not going to be replicated in 2022. This probably doesn't mean any seats flipped, because Kildee is strong and the Lansing seat is trending away from them, but James is in a better position than 2022. Biden won't be winning the seat by double digits like Whitmer did.

I think there’s a lot of assumptions here. Yes, Biden likely won’t do as well as Whitmer 2022 or Shapiro (obviously), but I could definitely see him doing better compared to 2020.

I stand by Cartwright and Wild starting at Lean D despite most people predicting them to lose in 2022 (myself included). Cartwright did better than Fetterman did too, which proves he wasn’t just carried by the top of the ticket.

That said, I think the order of vulnerable House Democrats starting out for me would be:

1. Perez (tossup)
2. Davis (tossup)
3. Horsford (Lean D)
4. MI-07 (Lean D)
5. Cartwright (Lean D)
6. Wild (Lean D)
7. Kaptur (Lean D)
8. Vasquez (Lean D)
9. Golden (Lean D)
10. Peltola (Lean D)

Beyond Perez, I think it’s stretching to put any of them starting out at tossup based on how well they all did in 2022 in face of significant headwinds already. It’s not like their ability to garner ticket splitters will suddenly vanish in the face of a presidential year.

If North Carolina and Ohio redraw, those seats will obviously top the list.

[Spectator]

I see Tom Barrett is running again in MI-07. I feel like my rating of that open seat as Lean D is justified. It was not even close last year.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/JevinHodge/status/1641833699959521280
Jevin Hodge OUT for AZ-01 2024

Probably better for Dems to run someone new here, maybe Paul Penzone

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1642891905955426304

Not sure someone who lost the district as an incumbent while their own gubernatorial nominee carried it is the person to win it back. Look how rematches went for retreads in cycles past, by and large.

[Spectator]

Riley is back in - and if the Hochulmander goes thru, he'll likely have an even better district I would assume?

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1645780308636340226

Dems could get someone stronger there from the state legislature.

[Spectator]

Riley is back in - and if the Hochulmander goes thru, he'll likely have an even better district I would assume?

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1645780308636340226

Dems could get someone stronger there from the state legislature.

And speak of the devil, sounds like State Senator Michelle Hinchey (D) is considering. She’d be by far the strongest challenger, having held down a narrow Trump-Biden seat for two cycles.

https://trib.al/AMugwso

[Spectator]

I had to look who it was (Michelle Kwan, Ambassador to Belize)

TIL Kwan holds an ambassadorship now

Yes I had no idea... to Belize?  Also I'm beginning to realize that there doesn't seem to be any special connections to the country when ambassadors are chosen... which is weird.  Does that anybody can become Ambassador to anywhere?

Some ambassadorships are from the civil service, usually people that have worked in diplomacy for years. Others are direct political appointees.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1664740132413489153

Fun fact: this guy was reelected to the state Senate in 2022 by 10 votes.

He's probably the strongest Democrat on the local bench

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1670878202225389574?cxt=HHwWjMCzqem3k7AuAAA...

Gross

What’s wrong with him? It’s not like he stands a chance against Menendez with NJ’s corrupt machine line politics.

[Spectator]

Dems land their top recruit in NY-22 in State Senator John Mannion.

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/cny/2023/07/state-sen-john-mannion-will-launch-bid-for-central-new-york-seat-in-congress.html?outputType=amp

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/NickforAlaska/status/1679513657519243265

One of the weaker people Peltola could face.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/NickforAlaska/status/1679513657519243265

One L just wasn't enough for ole Nick.

Two Ls

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1680254248771276800
With the caveat that there are still a number of members who haven't reported, battleground district House Republicans are off to a much faster start than their Democratic counterparts. I guess WinRed really did help to even the playing field in terms of small dollar fundraising.

I wonder if there’s a relation to many of the House Democrats feeling pretty safe (there’s only five in Trump seats vice 18 in Republicans in Biden seats), and feeling that if they survived 2022, they may not feel the need to fundraise as much? I don’t know, that’s my theory for the incumbents discrepancy.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/SJVSun/status/1683527717046632449?s=20

Seeing a bunch of Twitter (X?) commentary that is very off base; not that I suspect anything here would be comparable, but I thought I'd head it off nevertheless. Hurtado's district is basically a bigger, and therefore less blue, CA-22; her winning her Biden+8 seat while Newsom lost it by double digits, even if the win was narrow, in 2022 was extremely impressive. Probably the best possible recruit for this seat.

I’m shocked that she’s running with Salas already running again. I would have thought they’d coordinate it. Yes, Hurtado’s win in 2022, even with how thin it was, was extremely impressive. Much like John Mannion’s in the state senate district that overlaps NY-22 while Hochul and most other Dems lost it.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/SJVSun/status/1683527717046632449?s=20

Seeing a bunch of Twitter (X?) commentary that is very off base; not that I suspect anything here would be comparable, but I thought I'd head it off nevertheless. Hurtado's district is basically a bigger, and therefore less blue, CA-22; her winning her Biden+8 seat while Newsom lost it by double digits, even if the win was narrow, in 2022 was extremely impressive. Probably the best possible recruit for this seat.

I would have expected her to wait until 2026 when she’s termed out. If she wins in 2024 she’ll leave behind a Biden+8 State Senate district that’ll be very hard for Democrats to hold onto given how awful Hispanic turnout is in these types of election. Case in point, Mike Garcia 2020.

She’s not termed out until 2030. She probably saw 2024 as a no-risk, high-reward free shot without having to give up her seat. And probably doesn’t really care if the seat is lost in a special if she were to win the House seat.

[Spectator]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/07/29/steve-womack-arkansas-considers-retirement/

Rep. Steve Womack (AR-03) considering retirement. This district is Safe R in 2024, but is potentially worth watching as a sleeper further down the road.

Even with Washington County becoming a new swing county, seems like the rest of the district  isn’t really making any discernible trends blue. Kind of like how there’s a few random blue trending counties in MD-01 like Talbot, but that’s not going to ever result in it flipping unless they gerrymander the district.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/ercovey/status/1686053589205004290
Aside from WV and PA, these are generally fair.

West Virginia is much more likely to be competitive than Texas? Who pays for this garbage

[Spectator]

Mary Peltola is the most popular Alaska politician. 54-30 job approval

https://twitter.com/ivanmoore1/status/1692288839665213761?s=46

[Spectator]

Mary Peltola is the most popular Alaska politician. 54-30 job approval

https://twitter.com/ivanmoore1/status/1692288839665213761?s=46

Queen and possible Senator in 2026!

I don’t think it’d be smart to go in 2026. Probably 2028 when Murkowski probably retires. She knows she’s not winning a primary again when RCV is likely repealed.

[Spectator]

I notice J. R. Majewski is attacking the likely OH-09 nominee Craig Riedel for being anti-UAW, maybe Majewski will get back in the race.


I would definitely support him, especially as those "stolen valor" claims were debunked after the midterms by records being released (of course it only is released now). Kaptur and the DCCC should be ashamed of themselves for spreading fake news, and the NRCC should be ashamed for buying into it and cutting funding.

They were not debunked

So you disagree with official air force records?

https://www.toledoblade.com/local/politics/2023/08/31/majewski-air-force-medal-added-to-record/stories/20230831119
https://www.einpresswire.com/article/652896461/j-r-majewski-former-ohio-cd9-candidate-served-in-afghanistan-updated-dd-form-214-confirms

The AP claimed Majewski didn't serve in Afghanistan because he didn't recieve the medal people typically get when they serve more then 30 days in the position he had.
The air force recently released documents that shows he DID earn that medal and that he served in Afghanistan

You can't just call anything you dislike fake news even if it's true.

He still would have lost badly lol. He’s a joke and further proof that running in a competitive district trying to appeal to absolute morons while turning off everyone else might get you mid 40s but you’ve got zero chance of actually winning, because unlike Trump, he doesn’t have the benefit of the election being totally nationalized.

That might be true, but it doesn't take from the fact that national Democrats and Kaptur lied about a military vet's service and made a baseless accusations the central point of the race. The slander has gone so far even most democrats on here will just refuse to accept reality.

Majewski was caught lying about multiple other things in his record, including his Article 15. And calling himself a combat veteran when anyone who has been deployed to the Middle East would scoff at anyone calling what he did in Qatar “combat”