2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We gotta wait for Emerson polls all the polls are gonna be bias especially Biden plus 6 over Trump but under 50% there is noway it's Biden plus six without Emerson polls they were right on every state but NV but was off in WI with Johnson plus. 5

It's called Bias polls but D's are fav to hold 290 GA isn't solid D because of DeSantis but McCormick is gom a be strong than any other Casey opponents he wins by Shapiro margins but not in 24

Biden isn't gonna win NC,  FL or TX or MO with 45%cmon man

OH, WV and MT Sen are iffy it's called split voting we need 2/3 to keep S

The problem with Biden just like all the rest Trump, Bush W is that he hasnt made America Great Again the middle class and rich are happy but there is 50M still in poverty they took away stimulus check that got people out of poverty, and Biden and Harris won on Stimulus checks, still no 20K Student loans Forgiveness, that's a blk mark he promised us 10K discharge and he lied


Otherwise he would be at 60%

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/michelle_shen10/status/1624049219613990912

[BenjiG98]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1624078597404209152?s=20

[Atlas Force]

Special election watch? https://twitter.com/mattkatz00/status/1623703131057012737

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/michelle_shen10/status/1624049219613990912

The DCCC should be going all out recruiting Anthony Brindisi. Not getting him back in the race when Katko announced his retirement was one of the biggest blunders they made last cycle.

[Gracile]

Adam Gray has filed to run for CA-13 again:

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1624262619820605440

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/michelle_shen10/status/1624049219613990912

The DCCC should be going all out recruiting Anthony Brindisi. Not getting him back in the race when Katko announced his retirement was one of the biggest blunders they made last cycle.

Yeah this seat was drawn perfectly for him.  It seems like they didn’t even try to get him to run here in 2022.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/michelle_shen10/status/1624049219613990912

The DCCC should be going all out recruiting Anthony Brindisi. Not getting him back in the race when Katko announced his retirement was one of the biggest blunders they made last cycle.

Yeah this seat was drawn perfectly for him.  It seems like they didn’t even try to get him to run here in 2022.

They tried, but he was dead set on running for some Judgeship for reasons unknown (he lost badly).

[Utah Neolib]

https://twitter.com/michelle_shen10/status/1624049219613990912

The DCCC should be going all out recruiting Anthony Brindisi. Not getting him back in the race when Katko announced his retirement was one of the biggest blunders they made last cycle.

Yeah this seat was drawn perfectly for him.  It seems like they didn’t even try to get him to run here in 2022.

They tried, but he was dead set on running for some Judgeship for reasons unknown (he lost badly).

Didn’t he run for that judgeship because it denied him another recount in 2020? I remember something like that.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/michelle_shen10/status/1624049219613990912

The DCCC should be going all out recruiting Anthony Brindisi. Not getting him back in the race when Katko announced his retirement was one of the biggest blunders they made last cycle.

Yeah this seat was drawn perfectly for him.  It seems like they didn’t even try to get him to run here in 2022.

They tried, but he was dead set on running for some Judgeship for reasons unknown (he lost badly).

He ran for the judgeship in 2021.  He still carried the current NY-22 in that race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have a good feeling after the SOTU about D's chances again even Hannity and Trump compliment Biden, Make America Great Again with Biden Reelected we aren't that far from a Filibuster proof Trifecta 2 seats away from H majority Green, Boebert and Santos are gone and all we have to do in S is win AZ and OH and 303 and pickup MO, MO was an upset special in 2016 Kander can come within 3 and so can Kunce and MS Gov can be an upset special

Ratings don't include upsets until it gets very close to time vote User PRED do that what we make them

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/michelle_shen10/status/1624049219613990912

The DCCC should be going all out recruiting Anthony Brindisi. Not getting him back in the race when Katko announced his retirement was one of the biggest blunders they made last cycle.

Yeah this seat was drawn perfectly for him.  It seems like they didn’t even try to get him to run here in 2022.

They tried, but he was dead set on running for some Judgeship for reasons unknown (he lost badly).

He ran for the judgeship in 2021.  He still carried the current NY-22 in that race.

Yeah, but he didn’t run b/c he was focusing on that race

[wbrocks67]

Interesting!

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1624430030775373827

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Interesting!

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1624430030775373827

I call BS

Edit: To be clear, the map may end up largely unchanged, but it won't be because DeWine has any reluctance about trying to enact a scorched earth gerrymander.  I believe it isn't a high priority for him, but he'd also think nothing of backing one.  DeWine will support whatever map the State House and State Senate can agree on.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/michelle_shen10/status/1624049219613990912

The DCCC should be going all out recruiting Anthony Brindisi. Not getting him back in the race when Katko announced his retirement was one of the biggest blunders they made last cycle.

They got two state senators in the area that would probably instantly put it at a tossup.

[Young Conservative]

https://twitter.com/michelle_shen10/status/1624049219613990912

The DCCC should be going all out recruiting Anthony Brindisi. Not getting him back in the race when Katko announced his retirement was one of the biggest blunders they made last cycle.

Yeah this seat was drawn perfectly for him.  It seems like they didn’t even try to get him to run here in 2022.

They tried, but he was dead set on running for some Judgeship for reasons unknown (he lost badly).

The judgeship would have paid better than Congress and let him stay in NY. People overestimate the fact that lots of people don't want to travel back and forth to DC all the time. Judgeship is a way better job if that's what he was looking for. Not everyone is super self sacrificial about public service.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/AdamForColorado/status/1625495206501154819

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The RS are vulnerable because they said as soon as they got the H they would tackle inflation, well they doing just like Boehner did investigation and Boehner did Benghazi and it mattered but not to everyone's daily life, it was an overseas event and so is Hunter Biden, but TRUMP mounted an insurrection

Despite Biden low polls D's still leads on GCB 45/42

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1628394901191680003?s=20

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/AdamForColorado/status/1625495206501154819

Of course this leaves other swings out, but I just wonder whether that number alone is already made up by deaths? Did Boebert win more older voters?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/npfandos/status/1628438194508234754

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1628758577362894849?cxt=HHwWgoCwyf3SwZotAAAA

I think these are generally reasonable.

[wbrocks67]

Why can't Cook and Crystal Ball just leave OH/NC as is for now. There hasn't been any changes, and we don't know what changes will look like. Can't you just rate them as they are right now, and then update them later? Seems messy to just say "oh we'll just stick them here and give them different ratings bc we don't know what will happen"

I disagree with a bunch of the Lean Rs... Ciscomani, Nunn, James, Bacon, Kean, and Kiggans should all be tossup IMO.

[lfromnj]

Why can't Cook and Crystal Ball just leave OH/NC as is for now. There hasn't been any changes, and we don't know what changes will look like. Can't you just rate them as they are right now, and then update them later? Seems messy to just say "oh we'll just stick them here and give them different ratings bc we don't know what will happen"

I disagree with a bunch of the Lean Rs... Ciscomani, Nunn, James, Bacon, Kean, and Kiggans should all be tossup IMO.

NC is literally "required" to be redrawn so there will be a change no matter what .

[wbrocks67]

Why can't Cook and Crystal Ball just leave OH/NC as is for now. There hasn't been any changes, and we don't know what changes will look like. Can't you just rate them as they are right now, and then update them later? Seems messy to just say "oh we'll just stick them here and give them different ratings bc we don't know what will happen"

I disagree with a bunch of the Lean Rs... Ciscomani, Nunn, James, Bacon, Kean, and Kiggans should all be tossup IMO.

NC is literally "required" to be redrawn so there will be a change no matter what .

Okay, but the point still stands that we don't know what will change. So just label them as is for right now, or don't label them at all.