2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

Change Research, among 18-34 year olds - GCB:
Dem candidate: 55%
Rep candidate: 25%
Not sure 20%

https://changeresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Teen-Vogue-_-Youth-Voter-Poll-_-Toplines_Tracker-Aug-2023.docx.pdf

18-29 year olds were D+28 in 2022

[Horus]

Change Research, among 18-34 year olds - GCB:
Dem candidate: 55%
Rep candidate: 25%
Not sure 20%

https://changeresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Teen-Vogue-_-Youth-Voter-Poll-_-Toplines_Tracker-Aug-2023.docx.pdf

18-29 year olds were D+28 in 2022

I don't believe for a second that the GOP will make anything more than marginal gains with young voters. But will they turn out?

[wbrocks67]

Change Research, among 18-34 year olds - GCB:
Dem candidate: 55%
Rep candidate: 25%
Not sure 20%

https://changeresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Teen-Vogue-_-Youth-Voter-Poll-_-Toplines_Tracker-Aug-2023.docx.pdf

18-29 year olds were D+28 in 2022

I don't believe for a second that the GOP will make anything more than marginal gains with young voters. But will they turn out?

Remains to be seen, but in the poll, 79% of them say they are "definitely" voting next year, compared to 67% right before the midterms last year. 55% say they are extremely motivated.

Not sure if that will actually happen, but this poll at least gives a different view from some of the "young voter apathy" pieces I've seen, which don't seem to be based on anything empirical except for young voters meh attitudes on Joe Biden.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Change Research, among 18-34 year olds - GCB:
Dem candidate: 55%
Rep candidate: 25%
Not sure 20%

https://changeresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Teen-Vogue-_-Youth-Voter-Poll-_-Toplines_Tracker-Aug-2023.docx.pdf

18-29 year olds were D+28 in 2022

I don't believe for a second that the GOP will make anything more than marginal gains with young voters. But will they turn out?

Yes they will turn out. And it’s clear higher turnout benefit republicans at this point. Even higher Hispanic turnout probably benefit the Gop now

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1703825425493856485?s=20

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

That’s probably a good thing.  Idk how serious Tran is, but Nguyen has been running a much weaker than expected campaign.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Split Ticket's updated 2024 House picture: https://split-ticket.org/2023/09/19/house-temperature-check-9-18/

Summary: 22 rating changes, all to the left.  Overall: 210 D, 203 R, 22 Tossup (up from 209/207/19 in their initial ratings).  Also note:

All House ratings in states that could see mid-decade redistricting before 2024 will reflect the 2022 map until a new one is enacted. We can’t make ratings for maps that don’t exist.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All the maps are blank on Eday Ds are favored so I don't worry about ratings

[wbrocks67]

Split Ticket's updated 2024 House picture: https://split-ticket.org/2023/09/19/house-temperature-check-9-18/

Summary: 22 rating changes, all to the left.  Overall: 210 D, 203 R, 22 Tossup (up from 209/207/19 in their initial ratings).  Also note:

All House ratings in states that could see mid-decade redistricting before 2024 will reflect the 2022 map until a new one is enacted. We can’t make ratings for maps that don’t exist.

Good. This seems obvious to do, which Cook et al seem to have a problem with

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That’s probably a good thing.  Idk how serious Tran is, but Nguyen has been running a much weaker than expected campaign.

"Personal injury lawyer"...my first reaction to that is to assume that he's pretty sleazy to be honest.

Also always reminds me of this, lol.

[Roll Roons]

Something to watch: https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1704962326833561850

Baird is pretty old so it wouldn’t surprise me.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I notice J. R. Majewski is attacking the likely OH-09 nominee Craig Riedel for being anti-UAW, maybe Majewski will get back in the race.


I would definitely support him, especially as those "stolen valor" claims were debunked after the midterms by records being released (of course it only is released now). Kaptur and the DCCC should be ashamed of themselves for spreading fake news, and the NRCC should be ashamed for buying into it and cutting funding.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I notice J. R. Majewski is attacking the likely OH-09 nominee Craig Riedel for being anti-UAW, maybe Majewski will get back in the race.


I would definitely support him, especially as those "stolen valor" claims were debunked after the midterms by records being released (of course it only is released now). Kaptur and the DCCC should be ashamed of themselves for spreading fake news, and the NRCC should be ashamed for buying into it and cutting funding.

They were not debunked

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

That’s probably a good thing.  Idk how serious Tran is, but Nguyen has been running a much weaker than expected campaign.

"Personal injury lawyer"...my first reaction to that is to assume that he's pretty sleazy to be honest.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I notice J. R. Majewski is attacking the likely OH-09 nominee Craig Riedel for being anti-UAW, maybe Majewski will get back in the race.


I would definitely support him, especially as those "stolen valor" claims were debunked after the midterms by records being released (of course it only is released now). Kaptur and the DCCC should be ashamed of themselves for spreading fake news, and the NRCC should be ashamed for buying into it and cutting funding.

They were not debunked

So you disagree with official air force records?

https://www.toledoblade.com/local/politics/2023/08/31/majewski-air-force-medal-added-to-record/stories/20230831119
https://www.einpresswire.com/article/652896461/j-r-majewski-former-ohio-cd9-candidate-served-in-afghanistan-updated-dd-form-214-confirms

The AP claimed Majewski didn't serve in Afghanistan because he didn't recieve the medal people typically get when they serve more then 30 days in the position he had.
The air force recently released documents that shows he DID earn that medal and that he served in Afghanistan

You can't just call anything you dislike fake news even if it's true.

[wbrocks67]

NBC has D+1 GCB, 46-45

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23990176-230239-nbc-september-2023-poll_for-release-92423

[Oryxslayer]

I notice J. R. Majewski is attacking the likely OH-09 nominee Craig Riedel for being anti-UAW, maybe Majewski will get back in the race.


I would definitely support him, especially as those "stolen valor" claims were debunked after the midterms by records being released (of course it only is released now). Kaptur and the DCCC should be ashamed of themselves for spreading fake news, and the NRCC should be ashamed for buying into it and cutting funding.

They were not debunked

So you disagree with official air force records?

https://www.toledoblade.com/local/politics/2023/08/31/majewski-air-force-medal-added-to-record/stories/20230831119
https://www.einpresswire.com/article/652896461/j-r-majewski-former-ohio-cd9-candidate-served-in-afghanistan-updated-dd-form-214-confirms

The AP claimed Majewski didn't serve in Afghanistan because he didn't recieve the medal people typically get when they serve more then 30 days in the position he had.
The air force recently released documents that shows he DID earn that medal and that he served in Afghanistan

You can't just call anything you dislike fake news even if it's true.

https://twitter.com/jamesd0wns/status/1706337585306472553?t=3-V-JK_eOb20lXEUHOfI...

You may get your wish

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I notice J. R. Majewski is attacking the likely OH-09 nominee Craig Riedel for being anti-UAW, maybe Majewski will get back in the race.


I would definitely support him, especially as those "stolen valor" claims were debunked after the midterms by records being released (of course it only is released now). Kaptur and the DCCC should be ashamed of themselves for spreading fake news, and the NRCC should be ashamed for buying into it and cutting funding.

They were not debunked

So you disagree with official air force records?

https://www.toledoblade.com/local/politics/2023/08/31/majewski-air-force-medal-added-to-record/stories/20230831119
https://www.einpresswire.com/article/652896461/j-r-majewski-former-ohio-cd9-candidate-served-in-afghanistan-updated-dd-form-214-confirms

The AP claimed Majewski didn't serve in Afghanistan because he didn't recieve the medal people typically get when they serve more then 30 days in the position he had.
The air force recently released documents that shows he DID earn that medal and that he served in Afghanistan

You can't just call anything you dislike fake news even if it's true.

He still would have lost badly lol. He’s a joke and further proof that running in a competitive district trying to appeal to absolute morons while turning off everyone else might get you mid 40s but you’ve got zero chance of actually winning, because unlike Trump, he doesn’t have the benefit of the election being totally nationalized.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I notice J. R. Majewski is attacking the likely OH-09 nominee Craig Riedel for being anti-UAW, maybe Majewski will get back in the race.


I would definitely support him, especially as those "stolen valor" claims were debunked after the midterms by records being released (of course it only is released now). Kaptur and the DCCC should be ashamed of themselves for spreading fake news, and the NRCC should be ashamed for buying into it and cutting funding.

They were not debunked

So you disagree with official air force records?

https://www.toledoblade.com/local/politics/2023/08/31/majewski-air-force-medal-added-to-record/stories/20230831119
https://www.einpresswire.com/article/652896461/j-r-majewski-former-ohio-cd9-candidate-served-in-afghanistan-updated-dd-form-214-confirms

The AP claimed Majewski didn't serve in Afghanistan because he didn't recieve the medal people typically get when they serve more then 30 days in the position he had.
The air force recently released documents that shows he DID earn that medal and that he served in Afghanistan

You can't just call anything you dislike fake news even if it's true.

He still would have lost badly lol. He’s a joke and further proof that running in a competitive district trying to appeal to absolute morons while turning off everyone else might get you mid 40s but you’ve got zero chance of actually winning, because unlike Trump, he doesn’t have the benefit of the election being totally nationalized.

That might be true, but it doesn't take from the fact that national Democrats and Kaptur lied about a military vet's service and made a baseless accusations the central point of the race. The slander has gone so far even most democrats on here will just refuse to accept reality.

[Spectator]

I notice J. R. Majewski is attacking the likely OH-09 nominee Craig Riedel for being anti-UAW, maybe Majewski will get back in the race.


I would definitely support him, especially as those "stolen valor" claims were debunked after the midterms by records being released (of course it only is released now). Kaptur and the DCCC should be ashamed of themselves for spreading fake news, and the NRCC should be ashamed for buying into it and cutting funding.

They were not debunked

So you disagree with official air force records?

https://www.toledoblade.com/local/politics/2023/08/31/majewski-air-force-medal-added-to-record/stories/20230831119
https://www.einpresswire.com/article/652896461/j-r-majewski-former-ohio-cd9-candidate-served-in-afghanistan-updated-dd-form-214-confirms

The AP claimed Majewski didn't serve in Afghanistan because he didn't recieve the medal people typically get when they serve more then 30 days in the position he had.
The air force recently released documents that shows he DID earn that medal and that he served in Afghanistan

You can't just call anything you dislike fake news even if it's true.

He still would have lost badly lol. He’s a joke and further proof that running in a competitive district trying to appeal to absolute morons while turning off everyone else might get you mid 40s but you’ve got zero chance of actually winning, because unlike Trump, he doesn’t have the benefit of the election being totally nationalized.

That might be true, but it doesn't take from the fact that national Democrats and Kaptur lied about a military vet's service and made a baseless accusations the central point of the race. The slander has gone so far even most democrats on here will just refuse to accept reality.

Majewski was caught lying about multiple other things in his record, including his Article 15. And calling himself a combat veteran when anyone who has been deployed to the Middle East would scoff at anyone calling what he did in Qatar “combat”

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

This is Kent's launch ad:

https://twitter.com/joekent16jan19/status/1706708177578762427

Does this really look like a weak candidate?

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is Kent's launch ad:

https://twitter.com/joekent16jan19/status/1706708177578762427

Does this really look like a weak candidate?

He already lost to her in an election he really should have had no business being defeated in. I'd say that makes him a bit weaker this time around.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

This is Kent's launch ad:

https://twitter.com/joekent16jan19/status/1706708177578762427
Does this really look like a weak candidate?

He already lost to her in an election he really should have had no business being defeated in. I'd say that makes him a bit weaker this time around.

Watch the advertisement itself. It looks much better than ie McCormick or Cao's launch ads, or any ad that DeSantis has been running.

Last time the party was not unified, as Kent was accused of being a Bernie Bro. Perez is also a weak candidate that gives off Hillary Clinton vibes.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

This is Kent's launch ad:

https://twitter.com/joekent16jan19/status/1706708177578762427
Does this really look like a weak candidate?

He already lost to her in an election he really should have had no business being defeated in. I'd say that makes him a bit weaker this time around.

Kent's opponent in the 2022 primary spent millions on ads using money secretly funnelled by Kevin McCarthy, that literally compared him to Adolf Hitler and Bernie Sanders.
It was probably the most brutal primary of 2022. This time Kent has the backing of the whole establishment and is looking at a glide-path to a spot in the run off.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1707046950082605566