Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1335376629653254146
This is beyond cultish. How are people going to react on 1/20?

Not surprised. These people love to vote. In a close race though, it may come down to just a few thousand people skipping the runoffs because they don’t trust the system. My guess is this is a tactic by the GOP to draw attention to the race and turn their voters out.

I think the risk is that doing this will actually turn off less Trumpy voters who still voted for Trump. There are still a number of those voters even in areas that already heavily swung to Biden. I was talking with my dad about the election today (he still voted for Trump but not because of any love for the candidate) and he's thinking about abstaining from the runoffs because he's just disgusted with the national GOP throwing local Rs under the bus just because they didn't like the election results.

Hmm. very interesting point. It does seem, like the GOP is starting to split in this race between the full Trumpists and the lighter supporters. I think if they want to win, they're ultimate message has to be a check on Biden, which can be interpreted as preventing Biden from overreaching or stopping this country from become socialists or whatever. Focusing too much on the 2020 results isn't worth it because it creates an unnecessary fracture in their base.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1335376629653254146
This is beyond cultish. How are people going to react on 1/20?

Not surprised. These people love to vote. In a close race though, it may come down to just a few thousand people skipping the runoffs because they don’t trust the system. My guess is this is a tactic by the GOP to draw attention to the race and turn their voters out.

I think the risk is that doing this will actually turn off less Trumpy voters who still voted for Trump. There are still a number of those voters even in areas that already heavily swung to Biden. I was talking with my dad about the election today (he still voted for Trump but not because of any love for the candidate) and he's thinking about abstaining from the runoffs because he's just disgusted with the national GOP throwing local Rs under the bus just because they didn't like the election results.

Hmm. very interesting point. It does seem, like the GOP is starting to split in this race between the full Trumpists and the lighter supporters. I think if they want to win, they're ultimate message has to be a check on Biden, which can be interpreted as preventing Biden from overreaching or stopping this country from become socialists or whatever. Focusing too much on the 2020 results isn't worth it because it creates an unnecessary fracture in their base.

Completely agreed. A winning R strategy imo would be to message that they will check the far left impulses but also work constructively with Biden to get legislation passed. Making the runoffs a referendum on Trump risks turning off the same voters that flipped the state for Biden as well as reluctant Trump supporters.

Just curious; what's it like on the ground there in GA? Do people just casually talk about the runoffs in their local communities? How active have the parties been in trying to get their bases to show up?

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1335376629653254146
This is beyond cultish. How are people going to react on 1/20?

Not surprised. These people love to vote. In a close race though, it may come down to just a few thousand people skipping the runoffs because they don’t trust the system. My guess is this is a tactic by the GOP to draw attention to the race and turn their voters out.

I think the risk is that doing this will actually turn off less Trumpy voters who still voted for Trump. There are still a number of those voters even in areas that already heavily swung to Biden. I was talking with my dad about the election today (he still voted for Trump but not because of any love for the candidate) and he's thinking about abstaining from the runoffs because he's just disgusted with the national GOP throwing local Rs under the bus just because they didn't like the election results.

Hmm. very interesting point. It does seem, like the GOP is starting to split in this race between the full Trumpists and the lighter supporters. I think if they want to win, they're ultimate message has to be a check on Biden, which can be interpreted as preventing Biden from overreaching or stopping this country from become socialists or whatever. Focusing too much on the 2020 results isn't worth it because it creates an unnecessary fracture in their base.

Completely agreed. A winning R strategy imo would be to message that they will check the far left impulses but also work constructively with Biden to get legislation passed. Making the runoffs a referendum on Trump risks turning off the same voters that flipped the state for Biden as well as reluctant Trump supporters.

Just curious; what's it like on the ground there in GA? Do people just casually talk about the runoffs in their local communities? How active have the parties been in trying to get their bases to show up?

My sense is it's been quite active on both fronts. The elections and GA runoffs were big Thanksgiving topics and it's been non-stop bombardment from the parties. I literally got 2 text messages last week asking if I had requested an absentee ballot and a few door knockers from both the local Dem and Rep parties. Dems seem to be making a targeted effort to target white millennials judging by their pitches (it's basically saying Congress has been ineffective so it's time to try something new, and btw Trump isn't gone) here while Reps are heavily focused on the D trifecta = far left policies, and only a R Senate can stop that. Ossoff himself also was in this part of Forsyth a few days ago handing out campaign signs and Loeffler  also had a recent rally in Cumming a little bit to the north.

It might depend on community, but my social circle is primarily the area around the N Atlanta suburbs - I live in South Forsyth County, my wife's parents live in East Cobb and my parents live in Dunwoody. These are areas that are going to have high turnout on Jan 5 regardless, but the parties definitely are not taking their chances.

Nice! Gotta feel kinda sorry for y’all constantly being bombarded with political stuff, but these senate races are definitely pivotal to which direction we want our country to head. Hopefully these races will be high turnout and truly representative of what Georgians want

[ProgressiveModerate]

There are just so many unknowns in this race; I feel like a lopsided result is very possible, but with the data we have, we’ll we really just don’t have enough to pinpoint much. After 2020, polls may be correct or may be 10% off, rendering them somewhat useless; the few polls we have are all over the place. I hate the ambiguity. I’m going to try to see if I can do them math today to see which counties have high share of these 6.6% of new voters, since 6.6% is not an insignificant amount; I’ll look at Clayton first since that’s probably the most Democratic county with 100k+ people in GA. What other counties would be good to analyze?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Wonder how the debate will go; maybe they’ll be some huge gaffe that ultimately has no impact

[ProgressiveModerate]

Overall, not sure if this will really have an impact, though, I don't think Loeffler helped herself. She sounded very scripted and uncharismatic, and didn't seem to turn on the Trump base or the small group of swing voters. She's very lucky polarization is as bad as it is, and Warnock is lucky to be running against someone who is a pretty terrible canidate. Loeffler just gives me Ernsts vibes.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/RedEaglePatriot/status/1334954325261561858?s=20

Quite interesting how someone as politically engaged as REP is only saying he would "probably" vote in the Georgia runoffs if he lived in the state. Obviously, one person isn't indicative of the entire GOP, things like this should cause a bit of concern for Republicans. Imagine an Atlas Democrat, for instance, saying they would only "probably", that would be a big sign of trouble nationally, since most Atlas users have a greater understanding of electoral consequences than the average American.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/RedEaglePatriot/status/1334954325261561858?s=20

Quite interesting how someone as politically engaged as REP is only saying he would "probably" vote in the Georgia runoffs if he lived in the state. Obviously, one person isn't indicative of the entire GOP, things like this should cause a bit of concern for Republicans. Imagine an Atlas Democrat, for instance, saying they would only "probably", that would be a big sign of trouble nationally, since most Atlas users have a greater understanding of electoral consequences than the average American.

Maybe, but Red Eagle is a very silly person so I don't think anything he says is representative of anything.

But that's one product of Trumpism for you. We have to remember the average voter, whether they're a Democrat or Republican, generally isn't the brightest bulb when it comes to politics.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/RedEaglePatriot/status/1334954325261561858?s=20

Quite interesting how someone as politically engaged as REP is only saying he would "probably" vote in the Georgia runoffs if he lived in the state. Obviously, one person isn't indicative of the entire GOP, things like this should cause a bit of concern for Republicans. Imagine an Atlas Democrat, for instance, saying they would only "probably", that would be a big sign of trouble nationally, since most Atlas users have a greater understanding of electoral consequences than the average American.

Maybe, but Red Eagle is a very silly person so I don't think anything he says is representative of anything.

But that's one product of Trumpism for you. We have to remember the average voter, whether they're a Democrat or Republican, generally isn't the brightest bulb when it comes to politics.

They aren’t grifting off of audiences it’s not exactly the same

Very true. Still a lot of lower info voters are the audiences of these sorts of things.; someone they follow and look up to on twitter tells them to boycott and then they tell their friend too. We've already seen how powerful misinformation on social media can be.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why did Ossoff not bring this energy before November then? He was just 0.3% away from being denied the chance to go to a runoff at all, and that would have cost Democrats the Senate. Warnock at least had the excuse that a runoff in the special was inevitable.

He did, he just got crowded out by the heated presidential race and the other heated Senate campaign. Ossoff has been killing it, there's a reason Perdue won't show up to these debates, his ads are great and he's going to win.

Yeah Ossoff did that memey ad where he was walking down the street towards the camera that made the ladies of Resistance Twitter swoon.

Moderates in the Northern Atlanta Suburbs (TM) will hate that though. Anyone who lives in a suburban area is a moderate Republican who hates memes and loves David Perdue

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing that I find so curi ous about this race is that it seems like both sides are pessimistic on their chances of winning. Normally on Atlas, and throughout other election communities, Democrats tend to be bullish on Democrats while Republicans tend to be bullish on Republicans, yet for these, I feel like I'm seeing a more than usual number of people from both sides saying the other side will win. Democrats generally seem worried their voters won't show up, and the opposite is true for Republicans, who worry their base won't show up. Anyone else who feels this way?

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1335963961242562566

The thing about these polls about these 2 races is that they have to assume what the ejectorate will be lkiie. I feel like the way that we should be looking at this polls is what the result would be if the electorate is Biden +4 or Trump +6, ect, and try to be able to develop a picture from that, instead of just using the polling average as the median outcome.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing that I find so curi ous about this race is that it seems like both sides are pessimistic on their chances of winning. Normally on Atlas, and throughout other election communities, Democrats tend to be bullish on Democrats while Republicans tend to be bullish on Republicans, yet for these, I feel like I'm seeing a more than usual number of people from both sides saying the other side will win. Democrats generally seem worried their voters won't show up, and the opposite is true for Republicans, who worry their base won't show up. Anyone else who feels this way?

The difference is that Democrats have actual reasons which reference facts and rational discourse to justify their pessimism, whereas the Republicans who are pessimistic are just pessimistic because they believe baseless conspiracy theories that the elections are somehow rigged in Georgia by Republicans against Republicans.

Ironically, the only thing that can really give Dems the faintest sliver of hope is the very fact that Republicans apparently believe and are promoting these conspiracy theories, and pretending that Trump won the election rather than facing the reality that he lost by 8 million votes, and are attempting to overturn the election based on nothing and install Trump as dictator, which might cause a few extra suburbanites to vote Dem in repulsion at that.

That may be true to some degree, but even on this forum, Trump supporters such as Buzz who have accepted the results of the election has expressed some concerns about Republican’s chances despite generally being favorable to Trump and Republicans in his predictions.

[ProgressiveModerate]

That may be true to some degree, but even on this forum, Trump supporters such as Buzz who have accepted the results of the election has expressed some concerns about Republican’s chances despite generally being favorable to Trump and Republicans in his predictions.

Um, this doesn't sound all that pessimistic about Republican chances in the GA runoffs....:

Any poll showing Perdue tied or trailing is certified junk.  You can chose to believe it but you will be in the same position the polls put you in a couple weeks ago.  I won’t be posting much as I’m burnt out after the last few months, but Perdue is a LOCK.

Yikes, I must be thinking of someone else and/or have gone completely insane.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing that I find so curi ous about this race is that it seems like both sides are pessimistic on their chances of winning. Normally on Atlas, and throughout other election communities, Democrats tend to be bullish on Democrats while Republicans tend to be bullish on Republicans, yet for these, I feel like I'm seeing a more than usual number of people from both sides saying the other side will win. Democrats generally seem worried their voters won't show up, and the opposite is true for Republicans, who worry their base won't show up. Anyone else who feels this way?

I generally get a sense that both parties feel as though they could have done better with their candidates, which I'm sure goes a long way with regards to optimism/pessimism towards a win.

I agree, I think neither side was really expecting this to happen; most Democrats thought if Perdue was below 50%^they would've already won the Senate and most Republicans seemed to think they would win the Senate outright, so it seems like both sides are dissapointed that it's come to this.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing that I find so curi ous about this race is that it seems like both sides are pessimistic on their chances of winning. Normally on Atlas, and throughout other election communities, Democrats tend to be bullish on Democrats while Republicans tend to be bullish on Republicans, yet for these, I feel like I'm seeing a more than usual number of people from both sides saying the other side will win. Democrats generally seem worried their voters won't show up, and the opposite is true for Republicans, who worry their base won't show up. Anyone else who feels this way?

I generally get a sense that both parties feel as though they could have done better with their candidates, which I'm sure goes a long way with regards to optimism/pessimism towards a win.

I'm really surprised what a great candidate Warnock has turned out to be. Maybe it's because Loeffler is so bad that anyone would look good. There's not a superstar among the four but imo he's the best of the bunch.

To me, Warnock and Ossoff seem to have the edge when it comes to canidate quality/charisma, though Perdue has the slight incumbency edge too. Perdue and Loefeller really have turned out to be pretty weak though

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1336101371456741376

I've been saying this all along too. Republicans always vote, and always will. The only way for Democrats to win is to outvote them, which is very simple to do but always seems harder to put into action than it should be.

Traditionally, Republicans have been more reliable, especially in off elections and lower profile races, though I do want to mention that Democrats did win 2018 by more than Rs won 2010 or 2014 in terms of raw votes. In Georgia, it does still seem like Republicans are more reliable voters, but 2018 and 2020 show they no longer have the big edge they once had. If Trump has done one good thing, he’s made so many Americans, left and right, more reliable voters, and it’ll be interesting to see who shows up now that he’s lost. Generally, I wouldn’t underestimate the power of Trumpism in this race, but I could also see Democrats easily outvoting Rs.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1336101371456741376

I've been saying this all along too. Republicans always vote, and always will. The only way for Democrats to win is to outvote them, which is very simple to do but always seems harder to put into action than it should be.

Traditionally, Republicans have been more reliable, especially in off elections and lower profile races, though I do want to mention that Democrats did win 2018 by more than Rs won 2010 or 2014 in terms of raw votes. In Georgia, it does still seem like Republicans are more reliable voters, but 2018 and 2020 show they no longer have the big edge they once had. If Trump has done one good thing, he’s made so many Americans, left and right, more reliable voters, and it’ll be interesting to see who shows up now that he’s lost. Generally, I wouldn’t underestimate the power of Trumpism in this race, but I could also see Democrats easily outvoting Rs.

Republicans did not win the 2010 or 2014 midterms because they had better turnout, it was because independents voted against the party that controls the WH, in 2018 as well democrats did not win because of turnout, it was because independents voted against the party that controls the WH.

Yes and no. In general, we generally swing voters break against the incumbent party in midterms, but I think part of the reason we saw Democrats do well in 2018 and Republicans in 2014 and 2010 was because of a steep drop off in turnout amongst the incumbent party. Yes, swing voters do exists, but I think recent elections have shown us for the most part, the group is very small. We're beginning to see how little canidate quality matters, though around the edges in close races it can matter. The one exception to this rule seems to be long term incumbents who have built up a big name, but we see Petersen loose by double digits, and people like Manchin and Collins win with significantly reduced margins from their previous elections. I would argue though Rs who voted for Manchin in 2018 or Ds who voted for Collins in 2020 didn't vote for them because their ideology was necessarily moderate, they just voted for who they knew but are partisans in pretty much every other respect. Think about it; outside ME, WV, MT, and a few non-contested safe races, there has been very few instances of any real notable over/underperformance, even with candidates who are known top0 be popular in their states.

In a state as polarized as GA, it seems unlikely there will be many voters who split ballot in these runoffs, they have been heavily nationalized to the point where it's a question of who you want to control the Senate. Sure; maybe there will be a few Perdue - Warnock voters who will vote for Perdue just because of the name or because he's a bit more tempered than Kelly, and a few Loeffler - Ossoff or Loeffler - Blank voters who think Perdue hasn't been aggressive enough on Trump, but ultimately, these groups are going to be very very small. Sure; there are probably a few swing voters in GA, buit at the end of the day, I think turnout will be a much more powerful force.

[ProgressiveModerate]

There are just so many unknowns in this race; I feel like a lopsided result is very possible, but with the data we have, we’ll we really just don’t have enough to pinpoint much. After 2020, polls may be correct or may be 10% off, rendering them somewhat useless; the few polls we have are all over the place. I hate the ambiguity. I’m going to try to see if I can do them math today to see which counties have high share of these 6.6% of new voters, since 6.6% is not an insignificant amount; I’ll look at Clayton first since that’s probably the most Democratic county with 100k+ people in GA. What other counties would be good to analyze?

Did you ever get to do this?

The demographic breakdown of this group is:
White- 44%
Black- 35%
Hispanic- 2%
Asian- 3%
Other- 16%

Seems good for the Dems to me, neutral at worst.

Nope, couldn't find the data I needed unfortunately, though I'll keep looking and see what I can come up with. Are those numbers of demographic breakdown from Clayton, or statewide? If it's from Clayton, that's not particularly great, if it's statewide, definately a positive sign for Ds.

[ProgressiveModerate]

There are just so many unknowns in this race; I feel like a lopsided result is very possible, but with the data we have, we’ll we really just don’t have enough to pinpoint much. After 2020, polls may be correct or may be 10% off, rendering them somewhat useless; the few polls we have are all over the place. I hate the ambiguity. I’m going to try to see if I can do them math today to see which counties have high share of these 6.6% of new voters, since 6.6% is not an insignificant amount; I’ll look at Clayton first since that’s probably the most Democratic county with 100k+ people in GA. What other counties would be good to analyze?

Did you ever get to do this?

The demographic breakdown of this group is:
White- 44%
Black- 35%
Hispanic- 2%
Asian- 3%
Other- 16%

Seems good for the Dems to me, neutral at worst.

Nope, couldn't find the data I needed unfortunately, though I'll keep looking and see what I can come up with. Are those numbers of demographic breakdown from Clayton, or statewide? If it's from Clayton, that's not particularly great, if it's statewide, definately a positive sign for Ds.

Statewide. There aren’t enough white people in Clayton for that number to happen lol

lol for a second I got really worried those were the Clayton numbers; could only imagine what the rest of the state would be like.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Question:

I moved last week and forgot to update my address by yesterday. That means I can't vote, right? Don't want psychos accusing me of "voter fraud" or whatever the f*co.

Unfortunately, that is probably the case, but you can work on the ground to help ensure those who are registered vote. It's basically an indirect form of voting. Furthermore, if you have friends of family in the state who are unreliable voters but have clear ideological leanings, ensure they vote too, and think of that as your vote.

I'm, assuming you tried to register to vote while your address was in another state, so I think it depends upon whether you officially count as a Georgia resident or not when you registered. Generally, in order to be considered a resident, you have to have your official address in the state, though there are a few exceptions out there.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bad news for the DEMs:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

So far, there are 1.1 million mail ballot requests for the Special Elections, with 54% of requests coming from 65+ old voters.

There were 1.8 million mail ballot requests for the November GE, with 41% of requests coming from 65+ old voters.

65+ old voters went Trump+12.

Yeah, think I’m moving these closer to lean R. There are a lot of mixed signals from early data, but overall, the hard, objective early numbers don’t look particularly great. My guess is both these will end up around R+6, but I say that with little confidence; I could easily see R+14 or D+4 in the range of potential outcomes. Seems like the ATL metro doesn’t stand out as it did in the 2020 GE in terms of early absentee requests. We have to remember, there is still a lot of time for things to change, and there are a lot of missing data points, but any argument that argues Dems are favored seems like speculation at this point

[ProgressiveModerate]

apparently 7% of voters who are voting in the runoffs did not vote in the general, I wonder who they are? its weird

My take is that it's voters who now realize that their vote actually matters, but idk if this group is primarily red or blue.

My guess is it would lean blue. As another poster here mentioned here earlier, that group is:

White- 44%
Black- 35%
Hispanic- 2%
Asian- 3%
Other- 16%

There's not much else to go off of, so it's really just an assumption, but it'll definately be an interesting group to watch.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Question:

I moved last week and forgot to update my address by yesterday. That means I can't vote, right? Don't want psychos accusing me of "voter fraud" or whatever the f*co.

I mean... if you moved within state I would just go vote from where you moved from. All of the races on the ballot are statewide so it's not like you're voting for a race where you don't live.

Question:

I moved last week and forgot to update my address by yesterday. That means I can't vote, right? Don't want psychos accusing me of "voter fraud" or whatever the f*co.

Unfortunately, that is probably the case, but you can work on the ground to help ensure those who are registered vote. It's basically an indirect form of voting. Furthermore, if you have friends of family in the state who are unreliable voters but have clear ideological leanings, ensure they vote too, and think of that as your vote.

I'm, assuming you tried to register to vote while your address was in another state, so I think it depends upon whether you officially count as a Georgia resident or not when you registered. Generally, in order to be considered a resident, you have to have your official address in the state, though there are a few exceptions out there.

I did move within state, so I am a Georgia resident. I just don't want any hassle. I can totally see voting at an old address being some sort of something given how the laws are, especially since by the time the election rolls around I'll be outside that window where I was supposed to update my address with the county....

Oh I see. Just to be safe, I would go vote from your old address personally, but you would probably be ok dropping of an absentee ballot even from the wrong place

[ProgressiveModerate]

Again... it would be a pretty bad indictment of GA voters if they're okay with these people representing them. This type of stuff makes you wonder if the moderate Rs/college+ whites who hated Trump but were open to Perdue/Loeffler will still support them-

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1336502500862664704

It's a political calculation, and at the end of the day, there aren't that many persuadable voters especially in Georgia, though in a close election, every vote matter. They have to try to appeal to the hardcore Trumpists to get as many of them to turn out for them as possible while still coming off as palatable to the rest of the general public. This is simillar to the boat some Democrats were in, especially in 2016; they had to appeal to both progressives, liberals, and moderates.