UK General Discussion: Rishecession

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Absolutely fascinating article.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1575756143401394176

The Tories, overnight, became the most economically right wing party in the developed world, despite their own voters being marginally left wing (by international comparison)

They have set sail away from their own voters.

"The chart shows the Tories are the most economically right-wing major party relative to their *country's centre* according to political scientists." (the full explanation, as hinted at with "by international comparison", for anyone wondering) Still quite funny that Labour is placed to the right of Fidesz: The Rt. Hon. Victor Michael Borrowman MP (Lab., Winchester).

Yeah, that is an incredibly misleading chart

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Lol at the Palace now going to war with Truss.

What’s happened? Struggling to find anything.

I think he’s referring to Truss telling the King not to deliver a speech at COP27.

And he is being weak and accepts.

The usual bad faith nonsense from you I see. He has no choice given his constitutional role.

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The very funny thing we forget is that they’ve lost 5 MPs through by elections and defections already- they’re not going to want to lose more before they’ve done planning reform…

The chances of planning reform being passed are already very low.

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I take the deeply revisionist view that Foot was the only person who could have held Labour together in those years, and allowed the 83-97 fight back to happen as it did.

Certainly an interesting take to say that Foot held Labour together.

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Yes, but a competent PM could slow the spread of the poison just enough to make the Tories' path back to power easier. There is a difference between 250 seats at a general and 300.

At the moment a recovery in the polls would get them nowhere near 250. Maybe 150. There is an odd cognitive dissonance at the moment where people are at once recognising the hole the Tories are in, but not at all realising the reality of what that would mean electorally under FPTP in a pretty unpartisan polity.

If there was an election tomorrow the Conservatives could quite credibly end up with 0 seats. Certainly there is a well above 50% chance they would come out behind both the Lib Dems and the SNP.

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Opinium modelling released in the Guardian this evening.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1581768645239529472
It’s a detailed, seat by seat model indicating a 1997-level of anti-Tory tactical voting, that would see Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Therese Coffey, and Jeremy Hunt, among others falling victim.

It also projects a bad night for the SNP - with Labour reclaiming significant territory in Scotland, and the Lib Dems pulling back into 3rd place, (which has implications for news coverage, electoral spending and weekly slots at PMQs, as well as the obvious optics of them sliding into 4th). Obvious disclaimer that attempting to predict Scottish seats is an imprecise form of alchemy (the BBC exit poll is typically a few seats off, more than nationally).

Full write-up here: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/16/rees-mogg-coffey-and-hunt-would-lose-seats-in-election-poll-suggests

Notable that this poll has a Labour lead of “just” 15%, when the recent polling average is closer to a lead of 23-24%.

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...Calder Valley where there’s a high proportion of hippie types

That's really just one town and it's not that large. Though could certainly be the start of a decent GE vote in the future, the factors governing that being different to the factors governing decent Green votes in local elections (where they're basically Community Liberals with a different coloured rosette).

And the same is true for the other examples given.

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It's also a slyly clever way to show up the pettiness of the DUP at present. 'If we can do this...' and so on.

I also wonder whether the move is aimed more at a Northern Irish or a Republic electorate - not that the monarchy is popular in the Republic, but they are certainly trying to draw a line under some of their old … ahem … activities.

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Aye - lots in the ether today.

I’m sympathetic (but not entirely won over) to the thinking that Braverman had been considering resigning when the immigration numbers drop this week* - and that this briefing has been done by an internal opponent who’s looking to prevent her leaving on her own terms.

* _{It’s tortured logic to imagine Braverman could resign and use it as an an opportunity to successfully attack the government for stymying her - but I could absolutely see her trying it, in her quest to become Leader of the Opposition next year.}

Remember that this is a woman who launched a leadership bid against a sitting incumbent whilst refusing to resign from the cabinet. Logic means nothing here.

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New MRP YouGov poll shows a very close race in Scotland:
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1661276193734230017

As you'd expect, lots of very close seats - e.g. Rutherglen is only projected to have a 5.5% majority.

Interestingly for Labour, this shows that if they can get momentum into the campaign and overcome the 17/19 tactical calculus then a whole host more seats could be in play - East Renfrewshire, Edinburgh SW, Stirling, the Ayrshire seats.

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Honestly, I have no idea how this is going to work - it probably won’t. There’ll be 9 years of comms from her decrying Conservative cuts and policy, using some pretty hyperbolic language at times. There’s Brexit to get over, before you even consider Scottish independence.

I have to imagine this is going to be an 12 month career now, because the local Tory association is going to be very leery of her, and she would face an incredibly hostile electorate.

Worth considering though - this is the fourth defection away from the SNP in this parliament, following Angus MacNeil leaving the party, and the two who joined Alba.

If it’s an attempt to save her career, you’d have to imagine she’ll be looking for a new seat, though are there any plausible Tory prospects in Scotland which don’t have candidates in place?

And I can't imagine there'd be many Conservative Associations jumping at the chance to have her.

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And it should be remembered that 'student debt' in the UK is not debt in the traditional sense, it's far more equivalent to a graduate tax.

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And it should be remembered that 'student debt' in the UK is not debt in the traditional sense, it's far more equivalent to a graduate tax.

It is 9% of all income above 26k pounds until either it is paid off or 30 years have passed right ?

Depends when you attended university. It's 40 years for more recent grads, and there's a distinct difference in terms of interest rates. For those of us who graduated before 2011, it's an annoyance but a bearable one; for more recent grads it's far more punitive.

I don't think any current graduates will be on 40 year plans - that kicks in for those starting uni this year.

As for 'punitive', it depends what you mean - those graduating after 2011 have higher fees and interest rates, but the repayment threshold is higher, so on a day to day basis it is less punitive (though obviously you are worse off in the long run).

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Out of curiosity, why does the British press hate Megan Markle so much?

I wonder whether racism is at least a part of it. Or because she's not originally British?

I think it's pretty hard to dispute that racism plays a part, and that is what most people have honed in on, but there's little doubt in my mind that the overwhelming reason is that she's American, and, horror of horrors, a 'celebrity' in her own right.

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It's frankly very unedifying from all involved.