Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Fubart Solman]

Snow expected in Reno for most of the day, ending by 5 PM PST. Might have some effect on CA-03 too.

Light snow in the afternoon out in Elko, aka the only town of any size in NE Nevada.

[Fubart Solman]

Will Nye County still be counting their ballots by hand?

[Fubart Solman]

What’s up with Montana’s second house district?

[Fubart Solman]

Kermit Jones currently is leading in CA-03, but I don’t expect that to last at all.

[Fubart Solman]

Does anyone have the tweet saying something about pollsters will have to figure out how to adapt to the under-30 crowd who would rather pick up an unpinned grenade than a call from an unknown number?

[Fubart Solman]

God, imagine if the margin in NV is close enough that we have to deal with Nye County handcounting their votes. (Or did that get nixed?)

Does anyone have the tweet saying something about pollsters will have to figure out how to adapt to the under-30 crowd who would rather pick up an unpinned grenade than a call from an unknown number?

https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1590223092315750403

Thank you!

[Fubart Solman]

According to CNN, Milwaukee is just 82% couunted? Can Barnes make his small deficit up with that? RoJo losing would be so glorious.

According to HuffingtonPost, BoJo is ahead by just 26,000 votes. It seems 75% of the remaining votes come from Milwaukee and Dane Counties - 100,000 votes between them.

So you’re telling me there’s a chance? I guess I’ll see (later) in the morning.

[Fubart Solman]

https://twitter.com/adamparkhomenko/status/1590330805049765888

Brilliant analysis from Fox News on why Dr Oz lost.

[Fubart Solman]

https://twitter.com/DavidTurkell/status/1590426378666938368

LMAO

Like, I get that ballots have until Friday (iirc) to arrive (and I think that’s fine), but it seriously shouldn’t take more than a week after that to finish counting them.

[Fubart Solman]

https://twitter.com/trevenclaw/status/1590460510188625920

Dark Brandon Rising

(God, I wish he actually said that lol)

[Fubart Solman]

I been looking more in depth at the Cali results, and CA-03 could be a sleeper flip. It may literally be a perfect storm for Dems thanks to the snowstorm and having similar demographics to districts like CO-03 and MT-01 where Dems seem to be doing well. But CA-03 is only Trump + 1.7

Also without any mail vote in, Kiley is only up 6%.

Still Lean R imo but def not off the table.

I honestly haven’t looked as closely at the details of this race (despite it being my district). I’d be shocked if Dr. Jones pulled it off (I don’t feel as good about it as I did going into the election oddly enough). What other specific things make you think Jones can pull it off?

I do think that it’s a seat that Dems should keep an eye on in the future though. It sorta reminds me of the old CA-07 represented by Ami Bera for the last decade, but somewhat behind in the trend. Granted, the old CA-07 was basically all suburban Sacramento County, but the rurals in the new CA-03 are rather liberal thanks to the ski communities. Kiley has been very far right since taking office despite campaigning as a moderate in 2016 when he first ran.

[Fubart Solman]

I been looking more in depth at the Cali results, and CA-03 could be a sleeper flip. It may literally be a perfect storm for Dems thanks to the snowstorm and having similar demographics to districts like CO-03 and MT-01 where Dems seem to be doing well. But CA-03 is only Trump + 1.7

Also without any mail vote in, Kiley is only up 6%.

Still Lean R imo but def not off the table.

I honestly haven’t looked as closely at the details of this race (despite it being my district). I’d be shocked if Dr. Jones pulled it off (I don’t feel as good about it as I did going into the election oddly enough). What other specific things make you think Jones can pull it off?

I do think that it’s a seat that Dems should keep an eye on in the future though. It sorta reminds me of the old CA-07 represented by Ami Bera for the last decade, but somewhat behind in the trend. Granted, the old CA-07 was basically all suburban Sacramento County, but the rurals in the new CA-03 are rather liberal thanks to the ski communities. Kiley has been very far right since taking office despite campaigning as a moderate in 2016 when he first ran.

3 things:

1. He's only leading by 6 with presumably with the e-day vote.
2. CO-03, MT-01, ect
3. This district has had absolutely brutal shifts for the GOP in recent cycles, and it seems like Jones has runa  decent campaign

With the New York Times estimating 44% of votes in and Jones at 46.9%, is my math correct that he only needs to win ~52.7% of the remainder?

[Fubart Solman]

We’ll see what comes in today, but I might have to take back my comments about CA-03 being unwinnable for Kermit Jones (D). I’m officially in wait and see mode.

Don't really know if this is legit or not, but:

https://twitter.com/PoliticalKiwi/status/1590525037739900928

You can always trust a kiwi.  Look at that schnozz.

They’re the only bird with nostrils at the end of their beaks. Good for sniffing out lies!

[Fubart Solman]

That blue shift tho....

https://twitter.com/ethan_wh_/status/1590768805676191744?s=20&t=a-I4YmVa7R4c...

Honestly, that’s about the reverse of what I’d expect. I figured the eastern panhandle would shift blue because of its connections to exurban DC.

[Fubart Solman]

I think the country could be open to a gay man. Just not Buttigieg. My reasoning for it is that Polis had been the top vote getter two times a row in the past two Colorado midterms, and while Colorado is obviously blue, he’s still a proven winner even in some Trump-curious areas.

US voting intention 2024: masc4masc?

America is still too prejudiced to vote for a twink unfortunately. However, with the overperformances of Polis and Fetterman, I think a bear would be formidable.

If Idaho can elect a Butch Otter, I think the US at large could easily elect a bear.

[Fubart Solman]

Can someone who is optimistic about CA-03 please explain why? Placer County voted R by 7 points in 2020 and the district's D counties (Inyo, Mono, etc) are not nearly as populous.

White liberal heavy seat. The part of Placer County in that seat is the D parts. I don’t think it flips this year but probably will later in the decade.

It encompasses all of Placer County.

My bad, the D parts of El Dorado near Tahoe was what I confused it with.

Easy to do when the county seat of El Dorado is… Placerville.

[Fubart Solman]

California is considerably more R than it "should" be given the national environment.  Newsom is only up 57/43 currently.  Is this a mirage or another NY situation?  Note that the post-election updates today and yesterday have pushed the state more R so far.

Given all of the remaining ballots, plus whatever comes in by Monday, I’d lean mirage.

[Fubart Solman]

In the race for CA-03, Sierra County dropped a total of 79 votes this afternoon lol. Kiley is now doing slightly better than he had been doing here (+25 total instead of about +24 before the “drop”), but yeah. 79 votes lol.

[Fubart Solman]

I'm feeling good about AZ-01

I would urge caution, especially cause AZ-01 is entirely nested in Maricopa County; it's entirely possible the final dumps could pad Rs or Ds more than we expect. Def realistic.

In AZ-06, Ciscomani is slightly underrunning Trump in the 2 rural counties in, but Engle needs to get a larger margin out of Pima. Again, we don't know how the remaining ballots skew.

How likely are Valadao and Garcia to lose at this point? What about CA-03? I wonder if some Republicans didn't show up in CA-03 because they got locked out of an assembly district there despite the region being Republican

Dang, I hadn’t actually looked at the two maps and there’s a lot more overlap than I had realized. Not sure that a state senate election would affect turnout for what was seen as an at least vaguely competitive US House seat though.

[Fubart Solman]

https://twitter.com/cityafreaks/status/1590944805332582400

I said in the AZ-SEN thread that night that this was probably the most effective line of attack against Masters — looks like it worked.

I had never seen Masters’s face before. Yeah, that would be an effective attack.

[Fubart Solman]

All not yet called races by CNN (and my very unprofessional ratings):

Dems need 20/26

Likely D - 10
AK-AL
AZ-04
CO-08
MD-06
ME-02
NM-02
NV-03
CA-06
CA-21
CA-26

Lean D - 2
WA-08
OR-06

Toss-Up - 1
AZ-01

Competitive California Seats - 9
CA-03
CA-09
CA-13
CA-22
CA-27
CA-41
CA-45
CA-47
CA-49

Lean R - 2
AZ-06
OR-05

Likely R - 2
CO-03
NY-22

I have no clue, what's left in California, so idk what to think about these, since there is not a lot counted yet. But Ds can only lose two of those races, if my other rankings are not wrong, of course.

California rurals that are nearly done are generally coming in about 5% more R than 2020 on average.  This is consistent with Newsom's margin staying about where it is now.  However, the Central Valley counties that have 75%+ reporting (if that is accurate), are 10%+ more R than 2020, and the L.A. County Hispanic seats are way closer than normal.  So I would think either California either holds where it is or drifts R until L.A. is the new NYC.  No evidence of 2018 style big late Dem gains.

Something to note about California is that ballots still have until Monday to arrive, so we don’t even really know how many are left to count at this point. I’d tentatively say that anything that the Dems currently lead in there will probably go Dem. It’s just the ones where Republicans lead that are still in question (e.g. CA-03).

[Fubart Solman]

https://twitter.com/asinmarx/status/1591569255635759106

It's a saturday night

What am I doing with my life

Celebrating the fact that we hit page three hundred and ninety-four?

[Fubart Solman]

Shamelessly stolen from twitter

I wish that there was one for the whole state, though Carson City would be hard to fit a face and Washoe would need something blue.

[Fubart Solman]

Honestly, as much as Cuomo is a terrible person, I don’t think we would be talking about him if the House wasn’t as close as it was. Same goes for however Gavin’s campaigning might’ve affected things in CA. I’m still shocked at how close it is tbh. The fact that we’re even looking at such slim majorities that terms like “Alaska coalition” and “discharge petitions” are a credit to the Democratic Party and a mark against the Republican Party as represented by Trump and McCarthy.

[Fubart Solman]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1592657245439168513

This guy looks about 12

And he’s my next representative.