Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1605639884835852303

I thought the conventional wisdom was that blacks distrusted Fetterman because of that black jogger incident.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1605639884835852303

I thought the conventional wisdom was that blacks distrusted Fetterman because of that black jogger incident.

Seems not. Some people do seem to forget that Braddock is like, 3/4 black so Fetterman has a history of reaching out to that community specifically. They may be on different sides of the state but in many ways it's the same meat, different bread. Urban decay, high crime, high poverty, etc. Having a history of combatting that probably appeals to those types of communities.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Btw, Joe Kent finally conceded after a recount but implies he may run again:
https://twitter.com/JoeKentCampaign/status/1605639032943349766

A rematch is probably the most likely way MGP wins re-election

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1605639884835852303

I thought the conventional wisdom was that blacks distrusted Fetterman because of that black jogger incident.

Seems not. Some people do seem to forget that Braddock is like, 3/4 black so Fetterman has a history of reaching out to that community specifically. They may be on different sides of the state but in many ways it's the same meat, different bread. Urban decay, high crime, high poverty, etc. Having a history of combatting that probably appeals to those types of communities.

I doubt many black people ever cared about the jogger incident in real life.

[The Mikado]

Schumer (D) 3,320,561 — 56.7%
Pinion (R) 2,501,151 — 42.7%

Hochul (D) 3,140,415 — 53.2%
Zeldin (R) 2,762,581 — 46.8%

Looks like there was a pretty big dump of votes finally counted in NY after election day and right before the certification, with about ~190k more processed. Raised Schumer's final margin from +13.2 to +14.0 and Hochul's from +5.8 to +6.4.

Same thing happened in the August specials... they literally took 3-4 weeks to finally count the final mail-ins/absentees.

Did this make any of the congressional races closer?

Looks like a tiny bit:

NY-17 — R+0.8 previously to R+0.6 final
Lawler (R) 143,550 — 50.3%
Maloney (R) 141,730 — 49.7%

NY-18 — D+1.0 to D+1.4
Ryan (D) 135,245 — 50.7%
Schmitt (R) 131,653 — 49.3%

NY-19 — R+2.2 to R+1.6
Molinaro (R) 146,004 - 50.8%
Riley (D) 141,509 — 49.2%

NY-22 — R+1.0 to R+1.0
Williams (R) 135,544 — 50.5%
Conole (D) 132,913 — 49.5%

Thanks! Do we know anything about NY-03 or NY-04 changing?

[Gracile]

MI-10 precinct map:

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1605029536206200832

[Anarcho-Monarchist]

(first post!)

Something I've been curious (and a bit annoyed) about for the past few months: Charles Booker lives in Louisville, in a safe Dem seat with a retiring incumbent (Yarmuth). Why did he choose to run for an unwinnable Senate seat - especially after seeing how McGrath's 2020 run against the other (and even less popular) senator turned out - instead of for Yarmuth's? While the guy who ultimately won that seat doesn't seem too bad, Booker's platform was pretty great, and he clearly knows how to market himself to a broader audience. Would have loved having him in the House.

[Gracile]

(first post!)

Something I've been curious (and a bit annoyed) about for the past few months: Charles Booker lives in Louisville, in a safe Dem seat with a retiring incumbent (Yarmuth). Why did he choose to run for an unwinnable Senate seat - especially after seeing how McGrath's 2020 run against the other (and even less popular) senator turned out - instead of for Yarmuth's? While the guy who ultimately won that seat doesn't seem too bad, Booker's platform was pretty great, and he clearly knows how to market himself to a broader audience. Would have loved having him in the House.

Because he can get more cash from gullible national liberals by running against a polarizing Senator (to his donors) than running in a Safe D seat where if he wins would eventually be saddled with the boring job of being an elected official. I doubt Booker was all that interested in legislating.

Also, welcome to the forum!

[ProgressiveModerate]

MI-10 precinct map:

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1605029536206200832

Idk who ever thought it was a good idea to give up on Marlinga so easily, and it's really pissing me off.

It was always clear the statewide Dem slate was favored to carry MI-10, yet because it's technically a Trump district I feel like Dems wrote it off way too fast.

[Roll Roons]

MI-10 precinct map:

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1605029536206200832

Idk who ever thought it was a good idea to give up on Marlinga so easily, and it's really pissing me off.

It was always clear the statewide Dem slate was favored to carry MI-10, yet because it's technically a Trump district I feel like Dems wrote it off way too fast.

I think state and national Democrats saw Marlinga as a weak candidate from the start and never really had any faith in him. They probably also weren't expecting a blue wave in Michigan.

James is also a fundraising juggernaut while Marlinga... isn't. It also begs the question of why national Republican groups spent so much here but national Democratic groups didn't - maybe the Republican internals saw something the Democrats didn't.

[ProgressiveModerate]

MI-10 precinct map:

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1605029536206200832

Idk who ever thought it was a good idea to give up on Marlinga so easily, and it's really pissing me off.

It was always clear the statewide Dem slate was favored to carry MI-10, yet because it's technically a Trump district I feel like Dems wrote it off way too fast.

I think state and national Democrats saw him as a weak candidate from the start and never really had any faith. They probably also weren't expecting a blue wave in Michigan.

I don't understand why Marlinga was seen as bad either though. He was a County judge or smtg who had served for a long time and had ran well ahead of partisanship in previous elections. Sure, maybe he wasn't the youngest or most inspiring D candidate, but he def had a reputation in that district.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Looks like NC actually did vote to the left of Georgia in the total house vote. Every race was contested in both states.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Looks like NC actually did vote to the left of Georgia in the total house vote. Every race was contested in both states.

Do you think this could be attributed to NC having more competitive House seats than GA (which basically had none). It seems like a huge theme of 2020 was that Dems tended to do best in races that were heavily contested by both sides while underperforming everywhere else, and this theme seems to generally hold true in both NC and GA.

Both being under R + 5 is def telling though, and I'm genuinely surprised how well Dems seemed to hold up in NC despite the headwinds.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/GOPPATRIOTPOLLS/status/1590863816698785792?cxt=HHwWgMDThc2N8...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Fetterman up to +4.9, Shapiro +14.8, and DeLuzio +6.8 on NYT with Allegheny provisionals added.

Are there enough votes left that could get Fetterman to 5 points?

According to wikipedia, Fetterman has officially won by 5 points.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Pennsylvania

[Adam Griffin]

Fetterman up to +4.9, Shapiro +14.8, and DeLuzio +6.8 on NYT with Allegheny provisionals added.

Are there enough votes left that could get Fetterman to 5 points?

According to wikipedia, Fetterman has officially won by 5 points.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Pennsylvania

That's with rounding and excluding write-ins, as best I can tell. Strictly-speaking, even if we do exclude write-ins, it's not a true 5-point margin:

51.248% Fetterman
46.334% Oz
----------------------
4.914% Margin

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

When I think about 24 I don't think red wave I think blue waves WI, OH, NC were very close and with redistricting Rs should of netted 240 seats not 220 I think blue waves Brown, Baldwin, Kaine, STABENOW, Rosen, TESTER should win and Gallego and John Love should win while Manchin and Sinema loses and we net the H

So, Rs think that they can net the S in 2024 the opposite is true because we were in a blue not red wave Environment because of the H should of been 240Rs not 220Rs

I already predicted VA, NC, GA and AZ goes blue for 350/188 EC 52/46 no one wins PVI by 10 and 51/49 S Gallego, Brown, Tester and  John Love split voting

GCB is still 48/44 Ds which translates Obama 303 map in 2012, and with wave insuranceap it's 52/46 with 350(188 no one wins PVI by 10 but 4/6

[TheReckoning]

So do we all want to agree that there should be a NATIONAL standard for conduct of an election and counting ballots?

Absolutely f[inks]ing not. Last thing I want is someone like Trump overseeing the election.

[Gracile]

NC-13 precinct map:

https://twitter.com/UniteCarolina/status/1625869621789175809

[wbrocks67]

Dem operative in Virginia.

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1590043131805769728?t=nFrIXc1COBAcnGuT...

Sorry for the bump but can we ignore Ben Tribbett going forward? He was clearly a mess in 2017 and still a mess in 2022.