Argentina 2023 election

[Bilardista]

Meanwhile the bulk of the Radicals and the Civic Coalition would rather explicitly attack Milei but so far they haven't found any silver bullet.

Kind of related to this: what is still keeping Civic Coalition alive? They don't have a power base of governors like UCR, or an identifiable ideological purpose like PRO, or a strong personality like they used to have when Lilita was relevant, so it's a little surprising they still have 11 deputies.

I'd say it's being under the umbrella of Juntos por el Cambio that keeps them alive. Had it not been for the alliance's creation in 2015, it's posible the party would have languished and drifted aimlesssly like the similar GEN or PS; instead the coalition shields the CC from irrelevance by giving them a seat at the decision table and securing them some legislative representation.

They've also certainly helped themselves by being a small but organized and internally drama-free bunch (meaning there's no risk of the party breaking up or disbanding), always loyal to the alliance (which is more than can be said about the UCR), and generally well liked by their partners, "lilitos" like Maxi Ferraro or Juan Manuel López strike as pretty reasonable and responsible people. They do lack any figures that could attract votes, but the use of the closed list system means the CC doesn't have to compete for their seats, just stick closely to the people who draw those lists, something they've been pretty good at. They'be also been lucky to find a generous ally in Rodriguez Larreta, who always reserves them some good spots in the lists of CABA and Buenos Aires (8 of those 11 deputies come from these two districts).

[Bilardista]

So far it seems to be working, though keeping together a coalition that's supposed to include both Macri and Grabois could ultimately cause problems down the line.

Huh? Larreta doesn't want a coalition with Grabois (or viceversa), where you got that from?

[Bilardista]

Grabois has said he'd prefer Larreta over anyone else at the moment but you're right, Larreta hasn't reciprocated (though he does have ties with Grabois). I'll make an edit.

I think you misundertood Grabois there, he just said he prefered Larreta over Macri, which is indicative of nothing and hardly surprising, anyone on the left will tell you he's the lesser evil of the two.

And there's nothing special or noteworthy in the City giving money to that or any other social organization, all governents at all levels do it, specially at times like these when, as you know, only generous welfare spending can mantain social peace. More importantly though, Larreta has publicly supported Cristina's proposal to remove social organizations as the intermediaries in welfare distribution, if he had any interest in joining forces with Grabois or any other social leader he wouldn't endorse a plan that would take away much of their power.

Plus it would be pretty asinine to ally with someone as annoyin and toxic as Grabois, whom even kirchnerists are fed up with by now.

[Bilardista]

(my grandfather almost got shot during a completely different assassination against a president during a crowded event

Alfonsin?

[Bilardista]

There's currently a parliamentary debate over the abolition of the PASO primary election system, with many within Todos supporting their abolition

Honestly this might kill off the momentum FIT-U has right now, but it is the right thing to do regardless.

The trots have already come out in support of the primaries though. Which actually surprised me, the Left Front practically owes it's existance to the PASO, so it only made sense for them to support abolishing it. Glad they could overcome their instincts towards uselessness for once.

Also, what momentum?

[Bilardista]

VP Cristina Fernández has been sentenced  by the Supreme Court to 6 years in jail for corruption in the Vialidad trial, for fraudulently awarding public works contracts in her stronghold province of Santa Cruz (her husband's province) during her two terms as President (2007-2015). She's also barred for life from holding public office [some are saying it may only apply to unelected posts] As she's the VP it's unlikely she'll serve any time in jai at least l until her term ends

Businessman Lázaro Báez has also been sentenced to the same jail term for his involvement in the case

It's not the supreme court though, if it were it'd be a massive deal as she'd be barred from runing for office next year (wich ultimately is the bigger punishment here, she'll never actually go to prision, just a few years of house arrest). But this was a lesser tribunal, she still has two more instances of appeal, meaning it'll be many years before we get an actual conviction. In the meantime she'll either run for president (risky choice) or senator (the safer choice) and get immunity, that's what Menem did.

[Bilardista]

Today Gerardo Morales, governor of Jujuy and president of the UCR, officially announced he's running for president. Some of them might drop out, but for now there are five "precandidatos" in the JxC primary:

• Gerardo Morales (UCR)
• Horacio Rodríguez Larreta (PRO)

• Patricia Bullrich (PRO)
• Facundo Manes (UCR)

• María Eugenia Vidal (PRO)

There's been some talk of the UCR having a party primary first to decide on a single candidate, so as not to split the radical vote. That would be really interesting given the contrast between Morales, the most generic career politician imaginable, and Manes, an outsider technocrat-like neuroscientist.

It also remains to be seen what Macri ends up doing, he toyed with the possibility of runing again this year, but now he seems to be instead aiming for the role of kingmaker, using his influence to support Bullrich, the only candidate that has defended him and his term as president.


Meanwhile the ruling FDT is at an impasse about who will be their candidate. President Alberto Fernández wants to run, but outside of a small group of supporters, no one else wants him to, either because they think he'll lose badly or because they just hate his guts and want him to go away as soon as possible. But he's dead set on running, i assume not because he thinks he can actually win but rather to mantain what little authority he still has and to stave off the vultures flying over the rotting carcass that is his government. Also probably to piss off Cristina and La Cámpora, it really seems to have reached that level of pettiness.

Cristina's indicision about what to do doesn't help in all this. She's said she doesn't want to run (and probably means it, she seems genuinely tired of it all), but she doesn't have a candidate of her own to challenge Alberto in a primary or take his place if the later were finally forced to drop out. Her political protégé Axel Kicillof is the closest she has to a succesor, but he's running for reelection in Buenos Aires, and the kirchnerist camp doesn't seem to have any good or reconizable candidates, only unispiring names like interior minister Wado de Pedro or Chaco's governor Jorge Capitanich.

She could bite the bullet and run hersef, the peronist movement would certainly rally behind her and Alberto wouldn't be able to withstand the pressure to drop out. But then she'd likely lose the election, the worst defeat in her career and an unbearable stain in her legacy. Screwing over Alberto ain't worth that much.

Then there's Sergio Massa, the third member of the governing triumvirate. The "superminister" of economy was the key to solving the government crisis of June-August of last year, when he effectively took charge of most of the government direction, he's since been acting as a primer minister of sorts, and some see him as a potential compromise candidate. Most peronists don't like or trust him very much, but few hate him and i think he's garnered a lot of respect whitin the movement in the last few years, he's proved himself a more politically skilled and conciliatory figure than most thought. So far he's remained quiet about any candidacy, probably waiting to see how things develop, i don't think he'd want to go to a primary against the president, but if he were offered to be anointed as the unity candidate after some conclave, he'd accept in a heartbeat.

There's still time for an agreement to come about, but first negotiations will be necessary, and Aberto and Cristina have barely spoken to each other in the last two years, they don't even hide their mutual disdain anymore. The lack of any clear leadership, the birth defect that has always hindered this governement, makes the formation of negotiation table where all factions of the FDT can sit and talk, very, very dificult.

[Bilardista]

Today the electoral calendar kicks in with two provincial elections:

The patagonian provinces of Neuquén and Río Negro, each of about half a million people, will elect their governors, their legislatures and a bunch of other positions (city and town mayors, local councils, etc).


In Neuquén there are six candidates vying for the top job, of which two in particular have real chances of winning.

The ruling MPN (Movimiento Popular Neuquino) will go for their 14th consecutive victory (yes, they've been in power since 1962), and have put forward vicegovernor Marcos Koopmann as their candidate. He has the backing of outgoing governor Omar Gutiérrez, of the Sapag family (who founded the party in the 60's and control it to this day) and the Union of Oil workers, the most powerful union in the province and very influential within the MPN.

The main challenger is Rolando Figueroa. A longtime member of the MPN, came to be an important figure within the party, even serving as vicegovernor in 2015-2019, during Gutiérrez first term. But in the last couple of years the relationship with the party leadership soured and when Koopman was chosen over him, Figueroa left to run on his own. At first he tried to build a broad opposition front that combined his dissident faction of the MPN, the PJ and JxC, didn't quite succed but still managed to get the support of many peronists and non peronists, who see him as the best shot they have to finally beat the MPN.

And he's certainly well positioned to do so, "Rolo" is a charismatic and well known figure, capable of appealing to MPN voters by defending the achievements of past administrations, while also drawing opponents by criticizing the current one and accusing the Sapag family of becoming corrupt and of turning Neuquén into their own personal fiefdom.

All polls have Koopman and Figueroa neck and neck and far ahead of the rest of candidates, so the race will probably be decided between those two.


In the case of Río Negro there are many candidates, but only one worth mentioning.

Alberto Weretilneck served as mayor of Cipolletti (the third largest city in the province) from 2003 to 2011, and was then elected vicegovernor in the historic election of 2011 that ended 28 years of uninterrupted radical rule. But when his running mate suddeny died 20 days after taking office, Weretilneck became governor. Initially allied to the PJ, disagreements in 2014 lead to him creating "Juntos somos Río Negro" (JSRN), a provincial party that quickly absorbed much of the PJ and the UCR (which had almost collapsed after 2011).

Comfortably reelected in 2015 (52% of the vote), he coudn't serve a third term in 2019 so he chose his minister of tourism, Arabela Carreras, to run in his stead. And she also won comfortably (again 52%), while the boss went to kill some time in the senate. Now he's back, and not only does he have a high approval, he manoeuvred to get the support of the two main "opposition" parties, the PJ and the UCR, who officially endorsed him (if you can't beat them, join them). There are of course dissidents running their own cadidates, but the move succesfuly plunged the opposition into disarray, and makes his victory seem secure, polling puts him ~20 points ahead of the closest competitor, Aníbal Tortoriello of the rump JxC.


There's a third election today that i'll be looking at, the muicipal one of Trelew, the second largest city in the province of Chubut. It's pretty minor and inconsequential as far as national politics go, but it could have a significant effect in the upcoming gubernatorial election in Chubut.

There isn't any polling i could find, but the consensus is that the most important candidates are:

- Leila Lloyd Jones (Somos Trelew)
- Emanuel Coliñir (Frente de Todos)
- Gustavo Mac Karthy (Por la Libertad Independiente Chubutense)
- Gerardo Merino (Juntos por el Cambio Trelew)

Lloyd Jones seems to be the favourite, mostly due to the support of the current mayor Adrian Maderna and the advantage that is having the resources of his administration on her side, but Merino seems to have gained a lot of traction recently. This probably due to the fact that, while Coliñir and Mac Karthy are also critical of Maderna, Merino is the only non peronist of the three (he's the head of the local UCR to be more precise). In that sense he could better appeal to the more opposition voter better than the other candidates, who were allied to Maderna at some point or another. But it's far from clear who will win the race, so i'll be watching with interest.

[Bilardista]

It's going to be Massa. Everyone else will drop out for the sake of unity, though Grabois could compete anyway outside of the FDT. A primary now just doesn't make any sense, they should all get behind a sacrificial lamb candidate, and minimize damage as much as they can.

[Bilardista]

Larreta is the most likely candidate to win the JxC primary, right?

Most polls have him ahead, but i personally get the feeling he is more popular with the wider electorate than with those who'll actually vote in that primary (the opposite being the case with Bullrich)

[Bilardista]

How do you see Millei in this?

In what specifically?

[Bilardista]

How do you see Millei in this?

In what specifically?

Do you see Millei winning?

I think he has a good chance of making it to the second round. If it's him vs a candidate from JxC, the latter would be the favourite. But if it's him vs the FDT candidate...
Some long four years ahead.

[Bilardista]

- Maria Eugenia Vidal anounced she won't run for president, much to the surprise of no one. Thats leaves four candidates in the JxC primary.
Miguel Pichetto made an anouncement of sorts the other day and even put some ads on the streets, but the rumour is that he's really angling for a senate seat. Also Jose Luis Espert, having recently joined JxC, hinted he might run in that primary as well, but nothing concrete yet.

- There hasn't been much movement in the FDT primary after Alberto's decision. Everyone is waiting for Cristina to choose a candidate, but she's puting off endorsing anyone. It' clear no one wants a primary, but without Cristina's intervention, and with the lack of internal negotiation channels and tendency to procrastinate important decisions, i'm not sure how this gets solved before the June 24th deadline for registering candidacies.

- Milei anounced that he won't campaign for or endorse provincial candidates and focus only on the national election. He says it's to save energy and resources for the "big fight", but is really about not getting tied to a bunch of candidates who'll perform poorly like they did in Neuquén and Río Negro. He will after all still support those who poll well like Menem, Ramiro Marra or Ricardo Bussi (yikes).

- Gobernor of Córdoba Juan Schiaretti and former Salta gobernor Juan Manuel Urtubey anounced they have an agreement to compete against each other in a primary. Whoever wins will ocupy the spot of "moderate guy" candidate in the next election.

- The Left Front is holding a primary between Myriam Bregman (PTS), Gabriel Solano (PO) and Celeste Fierro ( MST). Since no one in this country likes primaries, they say they'd rather have a single candidate, but i doesn't seem like any such agreement is likely for now.
Also the New MAS asked to join the Left Front and for their candidate Manuela Castañeira to be included in that primary, but the other parties don't seem too interested in that.

- Business man and media guy Santiago Cúneo is runing for president, and you can get a good idea what he's about from the ads he put on the streets:

[Bilardista]

A second round of provincial elections take place today in Jujuy, La Rioja and Misiones. They all have clear favourites and upsets aren't expected this time.

In Jujuy the UCR is hoping to cotinue their dominance for four more years. After three decades of uninterrupted rule, the PJ was dealt a major blow in 2015, when they lost the province by over 20 points, and against no other than Gerardo Morales the man who ran in 1995, 1999 and 2003, losing all three times (fourth time's the charm, as they say). Morales, the undisputed big man of Jujuy's politics, built a wide opposition alliance, won the province, plunged the local peronism into a crisis they haven't recovered from, and has had little to no real local challengers since. Now he's runing for president, and chose his finance minister Carlos Sadir as his succesor.

As i understand it, Sadir isn't seen as a particularly strong candidate on his own, chosen mainly for his loyalty towards Morales, but Cambia Jujuy (the ruling alliance headed by the UCR) has a strong enough brand that practically any of their candidates would be considered as the favourite. It also helps that the alternatives are all pretty weak.

The peronist camp is divided. The official PJ candidate is business man and media owner Rubén Rivarola, a somewhat controversial figure among his fellow peronists due to his perceived friendliness with Morales. Many acuse Rivarola of having, as president of the local PJ, secretly worked with the governor to get rid of his internal rivals in exchange of suporting government iniatives.  The other peronist candidates are Rodolfo Tecchi, former dean of the Uiversity of Jujuy, and Juan Cardozo Traillou. The later is a last minute replacement for Guillermo Snopek, who was barred from runing due to a law forbiding family members of the governor from being candidates. Turns out Snopek, one of Morales fiercest critics, is also his brother-in-law. This had never been an issue before, that the justice suddenly decided to enforce the law is thought of being the result of the Morales-Rivarola secret pact.

The third actor in this is Alejandro Vilca of the Left Front. The trotskyst are rarely taken seriously, but in Jujuy they've actually goten some real suport, particularly among traditionally peronist voters. And it's not hard to see why, an indigenous garbage collector, Vilca not only has more in common with working class people than someone like Rivarola, he's also closer to what peronism is suposed to represent as well. Not surprisingly he's coming second in most polls.


In Misiones the election is but a formality. The ruling Frente Renovador de la Concordia (FRC), commonly known as "La Renovación", is headed for another easy victory, with their candidate Hugo Passalacqua guaranted to win.

Born as a splinter of the PJ in 2003, the FRC has dominated local politics since then, having practically no opposition and wining  elections with 60-70% of the vote. They are not expected to lose now either, but the margins could be a bit smaller, as JxC has been slowly growing and organizing into a real opposition force. They don't expect to win, but a 25-30% would be considered a solid performance and a step in the right direction.


Lastly theres La Rioja. Since it's creation in the 40's, the PJ has never lost a gubernatorial election here, and it doesn't seem like this will be the year that changes. Incumbent Ricardo Quintela will likely win reelection, though the margin of victory might be smaller than in previous elections, as he's not a specially popular governor.

Against him is JxC's Felipe Alvarez, a rather meh candidate. Honestly this would be a pretty uninteresting election if not for the other opposition challenger, Martin Menem, the expresident's nephew who got into politics a few years ago and did it not in the PJ as one would expect, but as a part of the whole liberal,  "Mileist" movement. How he managed to get so much support so quickly is rather obvious with a name like that, but he's also put in the work and not campaign on his lineage alone. Menem probably takes a bit from everywhere: peronists who don't like Quintela, JxC voters who don't like Alvarez, Milei supporters, people who hear the name Menem and get all nostalgic, etc. He's not likely to win, but if he mananages to relegate Alvarez to third place, that would position him for any future run.

[Bilardista]

Final results:

Jujuy

- Carlos Sadir (JxC) 49,52%
- Rubén Rivarola (FDT) 22,32%
- Alejandro Vilca (FIT) 12,81%
- Juan Cardozo Traillou (FDT) 6,66%

La Rioja

- Ricardo Quintela (FDT) 50,63%
- Felipe Álvarez (JxC) 31,89%
- Martín Menem (LLA) 15,56%

Misiones

- Hugo Passalacqua (FRC) 64,21%
- Martín Arjol (JxC) 26,47%
- Isaac Lenguaza (FDT) 4,77%
 

It all went more or less as expected. In Jujuy the PJ saved some face and came second, but the Left Front can still be proud of a strong performace (by their standards of course) and they actually won representation in the legislature again.

In La Rioja Menem underperformed compared to polls, but it's still an alright result imho. The other forces were much more established, and looking into it, i believe this is acually one of the worst results for peronism in the history of the province.

And there isn't much to say about Misiones. Death, taxes and La Renovación wining by huge margins.

[Bilardista]

On that note, Quintela's victory seems pretty straightforward (and I welcome any corrections if I've fallen victim to fake news): a bunch of planes from the federal government loaded with money landed about a week before the election, the money was loaded onto provincial armored cars and then a few days later Justicialista trucks went door to door handing out free food, money and household appliances. The undecided voters didn't take long to decide after that and the government won with just over 50% of the vote.

Uh, were did you get that from? Like yeah, clientelism is a thing, but "planes and armored trucks" does't sound like the way it's commonly done. As far as i know, during campaigns local leaders in poor neighbourhoods will usually give out food or small sums of money for those in need as well as transportation to polling places, it happens everywhere and it's an accepted practice, but i don't think it gets more complicated or elaborate than that, and it's more of a local level thing, nothing of the scale you're describing.

And something like that would have made it to the news, but i didn't see any reporting on that, sounds more like he sort of stuff some random twitter account would say, with the source amounting to "trust me bro".

[Bilardista]

Another Sunday of provincial elections is upon us. The two most important are the following:

Tucumán

It's a poor province in the north, and a peronist stronghold. But the last few years of their rule have been marred with infighting: in 2003 José Alperovich was elected governor and went on to serve three terms (the last one thanks to a constitutional ammendment). He was then succeded in 2015 by his vicegovernor and then ally Juan Manzur, who was reelected in 2019. Once in power, Manzur was quick to sideline Alperovich (much like the latter had done to his own predecessor Julio Miranda), but as the governor neared the end of his second term, tensions with his vicegovernor Osvaldo Jaldo began to surface.

Jaldo saw himself as the natural succesor, but feared that Manzur would try some kind of scheme to stay in power longer like Alperovich had done. Meanwhile Manzur feared that Jaldo would betray him once elected, as it's become a tradition at this point. So the relationship soured, and when in early 2021 Jaldo, as head of the legislature, appointed his own ombudsman instead of the one nominated by Manzur, all out war broke between them. Manzur purged his cabinet of any jaldist minister and Jaldo took sole control of the legislature with support of most peronist legislators. Later that year a truce was reached with mediation from the national government, and the two men agreed to run together (again) this year, this time switching roles with Manzur as Jaldo's vicegovernor.

But this went against the provincial constitution (which allows a maximum of four continuous terms as governor and vicegovernor), so, after an unnecessarily dramatic intervention from the supreme court, Manzur was barred from runing. He chose a loyalist to replace him, but the damage is done, as vicegovernor Manzur could have stoped Jaldo from taking full control, now he's left in weaker position to resist his succesor's inevitable rise as leader of Tucuman's peronism.

All this internal drama isn't great for winning elections, but the PJ hasn't lost an election since 1995 and this doesn't seem likely to change. The opposition has had their own drama, with their two main candidates, radical Roberto Sanchez and peronist German Alfaro, agreeing at the last moment not to run separately and to share the ticket "Sanchez-Alfaro". A strong one at that, they're the mayors of the two main cities in the province, one from the north and the other from the south. But even then, i doubt they can challenge the peronist machine which has been going for over two decades at this point.

San Luis

In 1983 a young peronist called Adolfo Rodríguez Saá, whose family had produced something like 9 or 10 governors in the XIX and early XX century (San Luis politics were always dominated by families more than parties), became governor himself and went on to win another four consecutive terms. In 2001 he made the jump to national politics and was succeded by his younger brother Alberto, who served another 16 years between 2003-2011 and 2015-2023. The two brothers always acted like a team and that partnership seemed nigh invincible (in 2003 Alberto won with 90% of the vote). They had complete control over state resources and were far more popular than any opposition thay had. Any challenge to them would have to come from within, and so it did.

After term limits were introduced in 2006, Claudio Poggi, a man close to and trusted by the brothers was chosen to run and won in 2011. But when he showed interest in runing again in 2015, his ambition was cut short and he was forced to desist. Resentful about this, a year later he switched sides to the opposition, of which he quickly became it's leader. And this year he added a valuable ally.

Sometime after the 2017 midterms a fight between the two brothers broke out. I wasn't able to find out what exactly caused it, but it seems like it was some personal issues that quickly scalated and it culminated in Alberto taking sole control of the PJ and expeling Adolfo and his supporters from the party. Resentful about this, he challenged his brother in the 2019 election, where the two siblings as well as Poggi all ran. Alberto won with 43%, followed by Poggi at 33% and Adolfo with 22%.

But now Alberto isn't runing, and his candidate to succeed him, Jorge "gato" Fernández, is an unknown mayor of a small town chosen mainly for his loyalty. Meanwhile Poggi not only is running, he got the endorsement of Adolfo. Fernández has the benefit of the whole peronist machine behind him (a formidable force indeed), but Poggi has built a lot of support of his own and is far ahead in terms of name recognition. The concensus is that it could go either way, the most competitive election since i think 1983. And one thing is certain: for the first time in many decades the name "Rodríguez Saá" won't be in the ballots.


There's also the legislative midterms in Corrientes and the primaries in Mendoza, but i don't think they're interesting enough to do a post about. I'll try to comment on them with the results in hand though. I'll also see to do a post on the national election later when i have more time, there's a lot of drama going on in that front.

[Bilardista]

Historic result in San Luis. And with both of the Rodríguez  Saá brothers hinting that they'll retire, it could be the end of an era. Not much to say about Tucumán or Corrientes, the results were to be expected, but the result in Mendoza is notable for how badly the PJ performed. They used to regularly get ~40%, now they might be lucky to reach 20%. Seems like all but the core peronist base voted for De Marchi, wether for strategic reasons or because they're fed up with the peronist leadership and it's incompetence i don't know, but they hit rock bottom.

Everyone had something to celebrate last night. Except Milei, his candidate in Tucumán did terribly, but he's said he's only focused in the presidential race and nothing else, so he might not care that much.

[Bilardista]

So, it's been just announced that De Pedro and Scioli agreed to drop out and Sergio Massa will be the sole candidate of UP, accompanied by Agustín Rossi. Surprised they snubbed Manzur, but honestly good for Rossi, that man has been nothing but a team player for years and never got any recognition.

Now let's see what Grabois does so my prediction is complete:

It's going to be Massa. Everyone else will drop out for the sake of unity, though Grabois could compete anyway outside of the FDT. A primary now just doesn't make any sense, they should all get behind a sacrificial lamb candidate, and minimize damage as much as they can.

Edit*

Grabois says he'll run in a primary against Massa
https://twitter.com/JuanGrabois/status/1672404011469684737?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogl...

[Bilardista]

Lmao, i hadn't seen this, but only 5 hours ago Grabois had droped out in support of Wado De Pedro:

https://twitter.com/JuanGrabois/status/1672327420563660803
Excelent timing

[Bilardista]

In a hypothetical split, who would join with Grabois?

Probably some of the other far left elements in the coalition, like Unidad Popular, Corriente Clasista y Combativa and the two or three communist parties affiliated to UP/FDT.

That's asuming he even meets the legal requirements to run.

[Bilardista]

 Claudio Lozano (Unidad Popular) said in a tweet he's discussing with other forces within the front what to do next, and that they'd be willing to leave UP if they're denied a primary. He didn't say which forces, but i suspect it's the ones i mentioned, plus some other very marginal groups like the trotskyist-peronists (yes, they're a thing) of "Partido Piquetero". Are these forces close to each other? Honestly i don't know, but if Grabois is serious about runing, those are the ones he should look at for support. Cause everyone else will fall in line behind Massa and the official lists.

[Bilardista]

The official lists for president:

Unión por la Patria   

• Sergio Massa-Agustín Rossi   
• Juan Grabois-Paula Abal Medina

Juntos por el Cambio

• Horacio Rodríguez Larreta-Gerardo Morales
• Patricia Bullrich-Luis Petri

   

Frente de Izquierda - Unidad   

• Myriam Bregman-Nicolás del Caño
• Gabriel Solano-Vilma Ripoll

La Libertad Avanza

• Javier Milei-Victoria Villarruel

Hacemos por Nuestro Pais

• Juan Schiaretti-Florencio Randazzo

There are others of course, but these are the ones most likely to make it to the general election.

[Bilardista]

The pre-PASO polling is all over the place so I'll hold back on a major update for now.

So far as provincial elections go, Chubut seems to be trending favourably for Juntos thanks to a combination of perceived momentum and minimal challenge from Treffinger (a result of prioritizing the national election where he leads the deputy list). Nevertheless it would take an enormous swing to actually flip the province outright considering that CST has the full backing of the national Peronists. Likely CST -> Tilt CST

What's CST?

[Bilardista]

The pre-PASO polling is all over the place so I'll hold back on a major update for now.

So far as provincial elections go, Chubut seems to be trending favourably for Juntos thanks to a combination of perceived momentum and minimal challenge from Treffinger (a result of prioritizing the national election where he leads the deputy list). Nevertheless it would take an enormous swing to actually flip the province outright considering that CST has the full backing of the national Peronists. Likely CST -> Tilt CST

What's CST?

Chubut Somos Todos, the province's PJ split led by former and current governors Das Neves and Arcioni, a pretty generic independent peronista group

Right, i remember now. They changed their name to "Chubut al frente" after Das Neves died in 2017 and this year they runited with the PJ to form "Arriba Chubut". With Das Neves gone the division didn't have much reason to continue and Arcioni being friends with Massa helped reconcile the two factions.