Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Re: The Russians fleeing Russia

I finally remembered this. If you want to see what Putin really intends for the people under his rule, don’t look at Russia (yet). Look at Crimea and Eastern Donbas, where he has no restrictions whatsoever. They are utter pits of repression for most Russians, much less any non-Russians.

The Russians are fleeing because they see the writing on the wall. Putin is extinguishing what little freedom is left in Russia. If it wasn’t already apparent by now, he gives not a solitary f*** about Russians, the people, at all, only “Russia”, the name of his empire of terror.

If you really want to scare people, you can mention Chechnya.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

So, uh, apparently the Russians in their infinite wisdom by Supreme Leader Putin have decided to forgo the concept of encryption entirely. The result is that their coms. can be heard live on shortwave radio. I wish I was joking right now.

http://websdr.ewi.utwente.nl:8901/

[DaleCooper]

So, uh, apparently the Russians in their infinite wisdom by Supreme Leader Putin have decided to forgo the concept of encryption entirely. The result is that their coms. can be heard live on shortwave radio. I wish I was joking right now.

http://websdr.ewi.utwente.nl:8901/

This is absolutely staggering. I always knew that Russia's military was nothing compared to the West, but this is pathetic.

[WMS]

Re: The Russians fleeing Russia

I finally remembered this. If you want to see what Putin really intends for the people under his rule, don’t look at Russia (yet). Look at Crimea and Eastern Donbas, where he has no restrictions whatsoever. They are utter pits of repression for most Russians, much less any non-Russians.

The Russians are fleeing because they see the writing on the wall. Putin is extinguishing what little freedom is left in Russia. If it wasn’t already apparent by now, he gives not a solitary f*** about Russians, the people, at all, only “Russia”, the name of his empire of terror.

If you really want to scare people, you can mention Chechnya.

Damnit I knew I was forgetting something. There’s always that extra layer of evil with Putin involved.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So, uh, apparently the Russians in their infinite wisdom by Supreme Leader Putin have decided to forgo the concept of encryption entirely. The result is that their coms. can be heard live on shortwave radio. I wish I was joking right now.

http://websdr.ewi.utwente.nl:8901/

If Russia keeps on this path, they deserve to lose the war on basis of incompetence alone, even if we ignore everything else.
Good god...what a mess.
I'm glad I didn't rule out a Ukrainian military victory.

[2952-0-0]

You'd think that a KGB colonel with Asperger's syndrome would be obsessed with ensuring that military communications be as secure as humanly possible. Instead, they used ordinary walkie talkies.

I'm half-convinced that western intelligence were aware of the true state of the Russian military, but hyped up the idea of Putin being a Bond villain for self-interested purposes.

[Aurelius]

I can't believe I have to say this: please stop posting Marco Rubio tweets into this thread as if he's a credible analyst or commentator. He's a political operator who played a significant role in trying to orchestrate a failed plot to remove Maduro in Venezuela. As part of this, he routinely bluffed and lied, acting as a propagandist along the way. Your instinct should be to see anything he has to say as serving some kind of political purpose. If one isn't a bloodthirsty hawk, your instinct should be to see his political purpose as adding a giant section to Arlington cemetery.

More generally, I encourage just about everyone on here to reflect more about the consequences of significantly ratcheting up tensions further in Ukraine. Would you actually be willing to commit your country's soldiers into this conflict even if that risked potential escalation to using nuclear weapons? Even if that chance was remote, it should make you pause. Even if that chance were nonexistent, would you feel comfortable suffering an actual energy crisis where all natural gas exports from Russia were stopped? Would you feel comfortable with the threat of severe and crippling cyberattacks?

Basically, a lot of the cavalier attitudes that I am seeing here strike me as being utterly irrational, foolish and sometimes unhinged. They disturb me because they reflect the public's mood and, lord knows, maybe with one unfortunate perturbation, some freak accident, we could actually be pulled into this war. At heart, just about none of you should want that. And you should be cautious of politicians who are willing to use soldiers as cannon fodder to advance their political careers. The loss of this skepticism is a terrible thing - cling to it. Never forget what they've done in the past.

I don't disagree with the second and third paragraphs. You're not wrong on the Rubio transgressions in Latam either, however.....

I completely disagree with the original Rubio point. He's on the senate intelligence committee and his tweets have been dead accurate thus far. Senator Murphy of CT, I believe, has been posting some intel as well. He's not willing the US to war or providing any commentary. Its just facts of what Putin has done or is doing.

There is nothing wrong with that. Some moments are larger than Rep/Dem divides. This is one of them. That's how I read Rubio's actions at least.

This, basically. Last time public sentiment was this united we got the Iraq War and the Patriot Act. The blob will seize any chance it gets and we must constantly be wary.

[NOVA Green]

A few Wall Street Journal Updates: Financial Squeeze Continues AND RUSSIAN Economic Collapse

1.) Russian Stock Market Closed for 4th Day in a Row

"Russia’s stock market will be largely closed for the fourth day in a row, the country’s central bank said, amid continuing financial turbulence sparked by the invasion of Ukraine.

With limited exceptions, neither stock nor derivatives trading will resume Thursday on the Moscow Exchange, the Bank of Russia said in a statement late Wednesday local time.

The extended market closure is one of a range of moves taken by the central bank, which has also more than doubled its benchmark interest rate, introduced capital controls and blocked coupon payments to foreign bondholders.

Influential index providers MSCI Inc. and FTSE Russell will both cut Russian equities from their benchmarks next week and S&P Dow Jones Indices is considering whether to do the same. MSCI said it had heard from investors and other market participants that “the Russian equity market is currently uninvestable.”

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-02/card/russian-stock-market-to-stay-closed-for-a-fourth-day-Iec01mmxUY2th1S8vZoE

2.) MSCI to Remove Russian Stocks From Emerging Market Indexes

"MSCI Inc. moved Wednesday to drop Russian stocks from its influential indexes that track emerging markets after the invasion of Ukraine shuttered the Moscow Exchange and left global investors unable to sell their holdings.

“MSCI received feedback from a large number of participants, including asset owners, asset managers, broker dealers, and exchanges with an overwhelming majority confirming that the Russian equity market is currently uninvestable and that Russian securities should be removed from the MSCI Emerging Markets Indices,” the company said in a statement.

The index compiler said Russian securities would be moved to “Standalone Market” status from “Emerging Markets” on March 9.

FTSE Russell also announced plans on Wednesday to remove Russian stocks from its indexes.

“Russia will be deleted from all FTSE Russell Equity Indices effective from the open of Monday, March 7,” the firm said.

"

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-02/card/msci-to-remove-russian-stocks-from-emerging-market-indexes-JLIyiyPfAzYUEHvbX9Pm

3.) "Visa Discloses Russia, Ukraine Exposure

"Roughly $1.2 billion of Visa Inc.’s annual net revenue comes from Russia and Ukraine, where sanctions and war have made it difficult to do business.

Russia accounted for some 4% of Visa’s total net revenue in its last fiscal year, the company said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing Wednesday. Ukraine, the company said, accounted for about 1%.

Visa had $24.1 billion in net revenue during its last fiscal year.

Visa and Mastercard Inc., the two largest U.S. card networks, have a similar amount of exposure to Russia and Ukraine. Roughly $1.1 billion of Mastercard’s annual net revenue comes from the two countries, or about 4% from Russia and 2% from Ukraine, the company said in a Tuesday filing.

Russian banks issue many debit and credit cards with the Visa and Mastercard logos. U.S. networks handle transactions in Russia but aren’t doing that when sanctioned Russian banks are involved as card issuers.

Russian cardholders are still able to use these cards for purchases in the country, but their transactions are going over other networks, namely Russia's own network Mir. Cards issued by sanctioned banks may not work outside the country, and foreign buyers may run into trouble using their cards in Russia."

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-02/card/visa-discloses-russia-ukraine-exposure-M40L7qSscOeTQf62MRMT

4.) "Yellen Monitoring Russian Efforts to Evade Sanctions with Cryptocurrency, Other Means

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-02/card/yellen-monitoring-russian-efforts-to-evade-sanctions-with-cryptocurrency-other-means-dhy4TMH4fBOAzRerlFNd

5.) S&P Dow Jones Indices Weighs Dropping Russia Stocks

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-02/card/s-p-dow-jones-indices-weighs-dropping-russia-stocks-n6zCVKft8brS4Lgduy3t

HUGE Really good long one and am only covering a small % of TOT (You will need to pay or use a trial to view)

6.) Sanction Carve-Outs for Energy Aren’t Enough to Keep Money Flowing to Russia

Businesses wary of violating rules are staying away from transactions with Russian companies

"The aggressive sanctions against Russia left loopholes to allow payments for critical oil and gas supplies that fuel Europe—and the world’s—economies. But businesses are instead going beyond, slapping a toxic label on anything to do with Russia, shunning its oil, refusing to issue insurance and cutting off financial transactions even with entities not on the sanctions list.

The result is deeper financial pressure on Russia, potentially triggering bankruptcies in industries that can’t get access to cash or pay their bills. Other unintended consequences include higher prices for energy and crops like wheat, triggering greater inflation in the global economy.

“It’s amazing how quickly the spigot turns off in our world,” said Jerry Paulson, a senior vice president at Chicago insurance brokerage HUB International Ltd. “Everything is coming to a halt, and this is just one more thing that will negatively affect commerce with Russia.”

Western banks, wary of accidentally running afoul of sanctions or of doing business with a Russian bank that may be targeted next, have been hesitant to enter any deals and transactions, according to bankers, consultants and officials monitoring the sanctions. They are also taking cues from their own clients, who ceased business with Russia.

“Anything with Russia currently is going to be subject to delay, scrutiny, disruption,” said Justine Walker, head of sanctions and risk at the Associate of Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialists, a consulting firm that works for big banks.

“Our risk appetite for new credit business in Russia and with Russian banks has been reduced to zero,” said an official at a German bank.

The main carve-out of the sanctions was Russia’s huge oil and gas exports. The move was meant to protect Europe, which is dependent on Russian energy, and global consumers already struggling with high energy prices. But oil topped $110 a barrel on Wednesday, which will further increase pump prices.

...."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/sanction-carve-outs-for-energy-arent-enough-to-keep-money-flowing-to-russia-11646252514?st=exq2lm9rnigx6t7&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

[2952-0-0]

I'm half-convinced that western intelligence were aware of the true state of the Russian military, but hyped up the idea of Putin being a Bond villain for self-interested purposes.

Last time public sentiment was this united we got the Iraq War and the Patriot Act. The blob will seize any chance it gets and we must constantly be wary.

That's pretty scary how our posts followed each other.

[NOVA Green]

BREAKING NEWS: Disturbing new satellite evidence of Russian Devastation in Cities throughout Ukraine--- this is really one of those articles where you might want to see the visuals on since not gonna overquote this.


"Satellite images show destruction in Chernihiv and on outskirts of Kyiv

By Rachel Pannett11:20 p.m.

"New analysis of satellite imagery shows the extent of the devastation wrought by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with bridges and roads damaged and homes destroyed in towns and cities across the country, including on the western reaches of the capital, Kyiv.

“The invasion’s impact on Ukrainians was clearly evident with visual examples of damaged and destroyed homes, residential areas, buildings and factories,” according to the U.S. firm Maxar Technologies, which on Wednesday published a review of additional photos captured Monday, local time.

In a residential area of Bucha, a city in Kyiv oblast, satellite photos show blown-up homes and military vehicles.

In Chernihiv, a strategic northern city on a highway that links the Russian border and Kyiv, and where a fierce battle has taken place in recent days, the images show damaged roads, bridges and homes. Some factories appear to have been leveled.

...."



https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/02/russia-ukraine-war-putin-news/#link-UB4FFPYI4ZFR3ONPJALRXCMQIA

[It’s so Joever]

At this point it’s a question of whether Ukraine falls first, or Russia cracks first.

[NOVA Green]

OSCE Member killed by Russian Forces Shelling

--- Potential addition to Russian War Crimes?



"Shelling in Kharkiv on Tuesday killed a member of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s monitoring mission to Ukraine, the group said in a statement. It said the victim, Maryna Fenina, died “while getting supplies for her family in a city that has become a war zone.” The group’s mission in Ukraine, which consists of unarmed civilians, was established during the turmoil of 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and the conflict in the east began."

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/02/world/ukraine-russia-war#trains-russia-finland

[emailking]

I can't believe I have to say this: please stop posting Marco Rubio tweets into this thread as if he's a credible analyst or commentator. He's a political operator who played a significant role in trying to orchestrate a failed plot to remove Maduro in Venezuela. As part of this, he routinely bluffed and lied, acting as a propagandist along the way. Your instinct should be to see anything he has to say as serving some kind of political purpose. If one isn't a bloodthirsty hawk, your instinct should be to see his political purpose as adding a giant section to Arlington cemetery.

He's been pretty accurate and his tweets are interesting. So I think it's fine.

[emailking]

I keep hearing calls for negotiation. What is there to negotiate? Just how much independence these Eastern areas of Ukraine with a lot of Russians should have?

[NOVA Green]

Russian Controls Imposed in Kherson--- Per Mayor (The Guardian)

Fully quoted since I believe it is completely free (So highly suggest donating to a legend of the English Left-Leaning National Paper--- link at bottom which also includes images)


" Russian controls imposed in Kherson, says mayor

Russian troops are in the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson after forcing their way into the council building, the mayor said in an update late last night.

According to the New York Times, the city northwest of the Crimean peninsula, has been captured by Russians. The city’s mayor, and US intelligence have contested that it has fully been overtaken.

In a Facebook post written about 10pm on Wednesday, Kherson’s mayor, Igor Kolykhaiev, said:

There were armed visitors in the city council today.

My team and I are peaceful people, we had no weapons or aggression on our side.

We don’t have Ukrainian Armed Forces in the city, only civilians and people who want to LIVE here!

The developments follow a day of conflicting claims over whether Moscow had made its first major gain by taking over a significant Ukrainian city.

I made no promises to them. I just have nothing to promise. I am only interested in the normal life of our city! I just asked not to shoot people.

Other restrictions imposed on the city include aa curfew from 8pm until 6am with cars transporting food, medicines and other necessities permitted to enter the city.

Public transport is set to restart soon and pedestrians are being told to “walk one by one, maximum two’.

“The military will not be provoked. Stop at the first demand. They do not conflict,” Kolykhaiev said.

We have shown that we are working to secure the city and are trying to eliminate the consequences of the invasion.

So far this is how it is. Ukrainian flag above us. And to keep it the same, these requirements must be met.”

Earlier, Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said: “We’re not in a position to call it either way. It appears to us that the Ukrainians are certainly fighting over that town.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/03/ukraine-news-russia-war-vladimir-putin-biden-latest-live-updates-kherson-kyiv-kharkiv-refugees-russian-invasion

[NOVA Green]

Anonymous Continuing the Cyberwar Against Russian Aggression:

https://twitter.com/LatestAnonPress/status/1499218376723476481?s=20&t=BBHxbB...

[AndyHogan14]

Anonymous Continuing the Cyberwar Against Russian Aggression:

https://twitter.com/LatestAnonPress/status/1499218376723476481?s=20&t=BBHxbB...

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

These children, including young Russian and Ukrainian boys, are dying for the sake of one man’s vanity and sick narcissism. It can’t be said enough, but #F**kPutin and I honestly hope he goes down in history as in line with other evil, destructive, inhuman Dictators.

[Bootes Void]

What does Putin mean when he says he will de-nazify Ukraine? Thats just straight up ridiculous

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What does Putin mean when he says he will de-nazify Ukraine? Thats just straight up ridiculous

It is his lie to his people, to justify what he is doing there. Ukraine apparently Nazi, Russia must intervene to de-Nazi.
It's, in a Russian domestic context, basically the same as Bush claiming Saddam had WMDs.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

What does Putin mean when he says he will de-nazify Ukraine? Thats just straight up ridiculous

Most Russian soldiers seem to have been told that they would be welcomed as Liberators, and that the Ukrainian government was some sort of dictatorship itself. Instead, they’re finding themselves with mass resistance and people throwing themselves in front of their death armada to stop them.

Ultimately, it’s all just a cover for Putin’s imperialist ambitions and justification for war crimes.

[NOVA Green]

Russian Crackdown on Dissent and News Continues...

"As losses mount, the reality of the war in Ukraine begins to dawn on many Russian civilians.

The reality of war is dawning across Russia.

On Wednesday, the Russian Defense Ministry for the first time announced a death toll for Russian servicemen in the conflict. While casualty figures in wartime are notoriously unreliable — and Ukraine has put the total of Russian dead in the thousands — the 498 Moscow acknowledged in the seven days of fighting is the largest in any of its military operations since the war in Chechnya, which marked the beginning of President Vladimir V. Putin’s tenure in 1999.

Russians who long avoided engaging with politics are now realizing that their country is fighting a deadly conflict, even as the Kremlin gets ever more aggressive in trying to shape the narrative. Its slow-motion crackdown on freedoms has become a whirlwind of repression of late, as the last vestiges of a free press faced extinction.

This week, lawmakers proposed a 15-year prison sentence for people who post “fakes” about the war, and rumors are swirling about soon-to-be-closed borders or martial law. The Education Ministry scheduled a video lesson to be shown in schools nationwide on Thursday that described the war against Ukraine as a “liberation mission.”

And in Moscow, the regional office of the Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers of Russia has been fielding 2,000 calls a day since last Thursday.

Ukraine has pushed to publicize the fact that many young Russian soldiers were dying or being taken prisoner — a reality that the Russian military did not acknowledge until Sunday, the fourth day of the war.

Many families of soldiers are in the dark. On Feb. 23, Razil Malikov, a tank driver in the Russian Army, called his family and said he would be home soon; his unit’s military drills in Crimea were just about wrapping up.

The next morning, Russia invaded Ukraine, and Mr. Malikov hasn’t been heard from since. On Monday, Ukraine published a video of a captured soldier in his unit, apologizing for taking part in the invasion.

“He had no idea they could send him to Ukraine,” Mr. Malikov’s brother, Rashid Allaberganov, said in a phone interview from the south-central Russian region of Bashkortostan. “Everyone is in a state of shock.”
"



https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/02/world/ukraine-russia-war/as-losses-mount-the-reality-of-the-war-in-ukraine-begins-to-dawn-on-many-russian-civilians

[NOVA Green]

Breaking News: German Weapons Coming MAYBE (Per The Guardian)

"Germany is considering supplying 2,700 anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine as it seeks to defend itself against an invasion by Russia, a government source said on Thursday.

German news agency DPA reported earlier that the economy ministry had approved supplying the Soviet-made Strela missiles, part of the inventories of the former German Democratic Republic’s army.

A source told Reuters that the Federal Security Council had yet to approve the move. “The missiles are ready to be transported,” the source said.

That would come on top of 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger surface-to-air missiles that Germany said on Saturday it would supply to Ukraine, in a shift of policy after Russia invaded its neighbour."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/03/ukraine-news-russia-war-vladimir-putin-biden-latest-live-updates-kherson-kyiv-kharkiv-refugees-russian-invasion

[Storr]

this is the first tweet in a longer thread about the Russian war effort so far:https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1499286099776131077?s=20&t=Sogpg8c...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1499261060121075713?s=20&t=PKt0_L7lfkC2d8...