Spanish elections and politics

[ON Progressive]

There's also a correlation between income and Vox votes. I guess Vox voters are not exactly "economically anxious"

To the shock of absolutely nobody that actually looks beyond the ridiculous media narrative about far right voters.

[rob in cal]

 Hasn't the pattern of recent Austrian and German elections been that AFD and FPO have done well in poorer areas?  I do recall that Hofer defeated Van der Bellen in the blue collar electorate by something like 9 to 1, at least among men, that of course being a two way race.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Hasn't the pattern of recent Austrian and German elections been that AFD and FPO have done well in poorer areas?  I do recall that Hofer defeated Van der Bellen in the blue collar electorate by something like 9 to 1, at least among men, that of course being a two way race.

Yes, but no two countries are the same: In Austria, you have a party with very well established roots in working class areas opposing a candidate that was literally the embodiment of the urban elite; whereas Vox is (at present) heavily associated with ultra conservative factions of the PP and the old Francoist elite.

[Lord Halifax]

As for the other 'barons', they'll have to pass the elections in May 2019.

I am not sure what you mean by that.

[Former President tack50]

As for the other 'barons', they'll have to pass the elections in May 2019.

I am not sure what you mean by that.

Pretty much that they have to prove themselves and get reelected in 2019. There are now 6 PSOE premiers, 1 of them anti-Sánchez back on the day and only 1 pro-Sánchez:

Pro-Sánchez:
Francina Armengol (Balearic Islands)

Anti-Sánchez:
Guillermo Fernández Vara (Extremadura)
Emiliano García Page (Castille-La Mancha)
Ximo Puig (Valencia)
Javier Lambán (Aragón)
Javier Fernández (Asturias, retiring)

So other than Javier Fernández, who is retiring, most other high profile Sánchez challengers are up for reelection in 2019. Then again it's worth noting that all but Puig are in traditional PSOE stronholds at the regional level. My ratings for each one before and after the Andalusian election (and they might actually be generous!):

Balearic Islands: Tossup->Lean PP
Extremadura: Likely PSOE->Tossup
Castille-La Mancha: Lean PSOE->Lean PP
Asturias: Safe PSOE->Lean PSOE
Valencia: Lean PSOE->Tossup
Aragón: Lean PP->Likely PP

(reminder I had Andalucia as Safe PSOE so yeah)

Looks pretty ugly, but I don't think there will be a divide between Sánchez supporters and opponents. Díaz was unpopular because of that but I don't think this applies to the rest of the premiers

[BigSerg]

So we have Celeste Tel and NC Report predicting a poor result for CS, that would stay in the 4th place. And we have this one saying that Cs will get a very strong result and will come second, besides surprisingly good result for Vox in a region where nobody would give the far-right a chance. Which one should I trust?

I assume that Cs will grow, but I think that surpassing the PP to come second won't be easy. Neither CS nor PP have good candidates, but their national leaders will campaign hard. Inés Arrimadas and Albert Rivera have Andalusian background and that's an advantage for Cs. PP gains un territorial implementation and this is an advantage in the campaign. PSOE will resist, but is losing ground every election. Too many years in power. It seems that the coalition between Podemos and IU will retain or increase the 20 seats they got separately ln 2015, despite they would lose some votes. IU didn't win seats  in certain provinces and the votes were wasted. Running in coalition compensates the loses.

Oranges have promised that they won't support Susana Díaz again. This leaves collaboration between PSOE and Ahora Andalucía as the only viable option, because PP and Cs won't have the numbers. The problem is that Susana Díaz and Teresa Rodríguez don't like each other. Susana Díaz is in the right wing of her party; she would be more comfortable dealing with Cs. Teresa Rodríguez is in the left wing of Podemos, in the trotskyst faction known as Anticapitalistas.

Hmmmm

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Just remembered that in 2019, my fave Ada Colau will be sacrificed on the alter of nationalism.

[Velasco]

David Duke, white supremacist and former KKK leader, also known for his participation in the Charlotteville racist riots, congratulates VOX:

"VOX triumphs in Andalusia! 12 seats and the end of the socialist regime 🇪🇸 #EspañaViva makes it history and shows that change is possible. The Reconquista begins in the Andalusian lands and will be extended in the rest of Spain 📣 #AndalucíaPorEspaña"

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/12/04/actualidad/1543928361_948093.html

The Reactionary Internationale in motion.

[Oryxslayer]

David Duke, white supremacist and former KKK leader, also known for his participation in the Charlotteville racist riots, congratulates VOX:

"VOX triumphs in Andalusia! 12 seats and the end of the socialist regime 🇪🇸 #EspañaViva makes it history and shows that change is possible. The Reconquista begins in the Andalusian lands and will be extended in the rest of Spain 📣 #AndalucíaPorEspaña"

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/12/04/actualidad/1543928361_948093.html

The Reactionary Internationale in motion.

I really doubt anyone knows who David Duke is

In Spain, yes. On this forum, no

[Velasco]

Just remembered that in 2019, my fave Ada Colau will be sacrificed on the alter of nationalism.

Her chances of victory might improve in case that ERC and JxCAT/Crida run separate lists. The list of Manuel Valls on the opposite side could be a strong challenger too. Chances are slim, I'm afraid.

Manuela Carmena is doing a good job in Madrid and might have better chances to win reelection than Ada Colau in Barcelona.  However, the Podemos leadership is undermining that possibility. Given that Manuela Carmena is aged 74 and could retire before the end of term, Pablo Iglesias wants to pick her sucessor (Julio Rodríguez,  retired general and former JEMAD*) and place loyals in electable positions. The councilors from Podemos are appreciated by Carmena, but they feared to be displaced from electable positions by the party.  So they decided not to participate in the Podemos primaries and run as independents in the Carmena list. The councilors have been expelled from Podemos, including the spokeswoman of the local government Rita Maestre. Iñigo Etrrejón,  who is going the candidate for the Madrid region, remains in silence but probably is not very pleased. The chances of Errejon are linked to Carmena.

*Commander in Chief of the Army during the second term of Zapatero and close collaborator of the deceased Carme Chacon, by then minister of Defence (first woman in the post)

[Former President tack50]

Actually, I don't think Carmena nor Colau have a high chance of being reelected. In fact I'd actually argue Colau is more of a favourite than Carmena because of Barcelona being a lot more friendly than Madrid and the more fractured council which means she might have an easy time emerging as a "consensus candidate" as she can do deals with pretty much everyone. (something like 25% for Carmena and 35% for Colau)

IMO it will depend a lot on how well they can isolate themselves from national tendencies, as Carmena is a popular mayor in hostile territory while Colau is an unpopular mayor in friendly territory.

As of now I do think Cs will take Madrid while ERC will take Barcelona (though this one is a bit less clear to me)

In any case of the high profile Podemos mayors I'd say only Kichi in Cádiz is favoured. Maybe the 2 ones in Galicia (A Coruña and Santiago de Compostela) though those are less known. Finally Zamora is a big question mark as it's rural enough (63k people) that personally knowing the mayor does a lot and local issues will be more prominent.

[Velasco]

Fascinating map of results by precinct or census section. You can zoom in and out throughout Andalusia and click on the map to see the result in a specific location, or type an adress in the box...

https://m.eldiario.es/andalucia/MAPA-partido-elecciones-andaluzas-manzana_0_842366730.html

[seb_pard]

Horrible results, although the demise of the socialists was totally expected. The campaign was simply horrible and they deserved it because they brought VOX to the campaign, although the media has a strong responsibility. They started to talk about VOX for months as if the party had a strong poll %, despite the party was polling around the same percentage as PACMA. They created a monster.

What I didn't expect was Adelante Andalucia's results, there are no words to describe that result. I don't think that could bring more friction between Rodriguez and Iglesias, but could bring a war in Izquierda Unida. I think the organization's old guard never liked these confluencias (too much power for Iglesias?) and they probably didn't participate enough in the campaign and will start to campaign against these types of organizations.

About the effect in Catalunya, is a very difficult situation for the soberanists, because this enforce the message that Spain is unfixable, but right now If I were a soberanist leader (and this includes the basques parties and Compromis) I would be terrified of early elections and would try to work with Pedro Sanchez. Strong Vox and Ciudadanos with a PP ruled by its right-wing faction could be terrible for the autonomies.

On Vox results, there is a good article published by eldiario about El Ejido before the election, anticipating a good result for Vox. Seems a place with many señoritos and their friends that vote for Vox and there is a lack of working class organizations (I saw turnout in the map from eldiario and actually is very low there). Horrible people.

https://www.eldiario.es/andalucia/Vox-crece-invernaderos-Almeria_0_840966249.html

Other thing, I think the Spanish political process is more related to LatAm than Europe in some aspects, including the rise of far right parties (increasing after the rise in Europe and mostly supported by upper class voters).

[Velasco]

On Vox results, there is a good article published by eldiario about El Ejido before the election, anticipating a good result for Vox. Seems a place with many señoritos and their friends that vote for Vox and there is a lack of working class organizations (I saw turnout in the map from eldiario and actually is very low there). Horrible people.

https://www.eldiario.es/andalucia/Vox-crece-invernaderos-Almeria_0_840966249.html

Other thing, I think the Spanish political process is more related to LatAm than Europe in some aspects, including the rise of far right parties (increasing after the rise in Europe and mostly supported by upper class voters).

The working class in El Ejido are immigrant labourers (both legal and illegal) employed in the extensive greenhouses that dominate the landscape. They are not unionized workers, obviously. Immigrants are about 30% of the population and come mainly from Morocco, Sub Saharan Africa and Romania. There is something about the mentality of the farmers transformed into entrepeneurs that says nothing good about them. The same farmers that employ immigrant workforce have a negative opinion of them and many voted for VOX, according to media reports. There is a big hypocrisy in this that is really disgusting. Horrible,  yes.

It's difficult to understand why the PSOE's establishment liked Dusana Diaz so much. As some journalist wrote, she never won a battle in open field. Pablo Casado is  at least as responsible as Diaz or even more, because he has mimicked and amplified the Vox's message. Cs avoided to confront its alleged liberalism (fake, in my opinion) to the counterparts of Le Pen. Anyway there are underlying causes such as the subdued indignation caused by the unilateral attempt of secession in Catalonia and others. There is a climate in the country (and the international situation) that favours anti-politics, demagoguery and the far right. Vox's entry was expected but very few predicted the violence of this explosion. Many voters in the last moment switched to them.

As for AA, I think that the Pidemos' factionalism and the infighting are regrettable. There are many IU voters reluctant to support alliances with Podemos, because they feel it's losing identity and assuming a secondary role. Also, there are oeople disillusioned thinking that Podemos forgot its origins and became too "institutional". All these factors may have contributed to demobilize the base, cause of the disappointing performance. It was hard for them because the campaign left a good impression.

[Velasco]

Is it safe to write Podemos' obituary at this point in the timeline?

No. Podemos is in a downward trend, but it's far from being dead. It's more likely at this point that Podemos becomes in the equivalent of La France Insoumise. They are already similar in ideology and leadership style (I think the 'cult sect trait is more accentuated in FI). I mean equivalent in what regards that FI has a significant support but it seems irrelevant in terms of political influence. Since its foundation Podemos has been a major actor in Spanish politics  and its influence is undeniable. However, Podemos has lost momentum...

[SPQR]

Fascinating map of results by precinct or census section. You can zoom in and out throughout Andalusia and click on the map to see the result in a specific location, or type an adress in the box...

https://m.eldiario.es/andalucia/MAPA-partido-elecciones-andaluzas-manzana_0_842366730.html

Great map.
In particular, I find it very interesting how the center-left is completely annihilated downtown in all the largest cities (in Sevilla, PP+VOX get more than 60% pretty much everywhere).
This in in stark contrast to the urban/rural divide that's going on in the last few years, not least in Italy where PD is now the "party of the city center".

[Former President tack50]

Worth noting that in Spain the more sough you go, the more reversed the left/right axis is. In places like Galicia you can certainly see your standard cities=left; rurals=right scheme. However in much of Spain this is revresed, especially in the South (Andalucía, Extremadura, parts of Castille-La Mancha)

The most common explanation is that in these areas there's a minority of wealthy landowners (like for example the famous Duke of Alba) and a lot of rural poor peasants who vote left.

There are also areas where there isn't a rural/urban divide at all, Aragon being probably the best example.

Finally, in "nationalist" regions (Catalonia/Basque Country) while the divide is still there, it isn't on left/right issues but on nationalism/unionism issues. Unionist parties perform great in Barcelona and Bilbao's suburbs and metropolitan area (also smaller cities like San Sebastián or Tarragona) and border areas which are more "culturally Spanish" or different from Catalonia/Basque Country (southern Álava, Aran Valley). Meanwhile secessionists perform best in rural areas.

Also, Sánchez has backtracked and he will now bring a budget to parliament. Before he claimed that he wouldn't even attempt that. He also seems to be attacking secessionists slightly. I don't think he really expects it to pass so maybe he is trying to prepare the country for early elections?

[Velasco]

Fascinating map of results by precinct or census section. You can zoom in and out throughout Andalusia and click on the map to see the result in a specific location, or type an adress in the box...

https://m.eldiario.es/andalucia/MAPA-partido-elecciones-andaluzas-manzana_0_842366730.html

Great map.
In particular, I find it very interesting how the center-left is completely annihilated downtown in all the largest cities (in Sevilla, PP+VOX get more than 60% pretty much everywhere).
This in in stark contrast to the urban/rural divide that's going on in the last few years, not least in Italy where PD is now the "party of the city center".

Downtown Madrid and Barcelona are more left leaning. Neighbourhoods like Lavapies in Madrid or Barri Gotic in Barcelona are Podemos strongholds. However there are other cities where the downtown is very right wing: Valencia, Sevilla, Zaragoza, Málaga. .. I guess they are demographically different

[Velasco]

The results in Poligono Sur are interesting. It's a working class, low income area south of Sevilla (Las Tres Mil Viviendas). It's very left wing, as you could expect. The most noticeable feature is the very low turnout*. Compare to right wing precincts in central Sevilla with turnouts above 70%.

* There is a small precinct near Las Letanías with an 8% turnout! (Distrito 05, sección 045)


https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polígono_Sur_(Sevilla)

[rob in cal]

 So the downtown parts of Sevilla went heavily against the left.  Demographically what are these areas like, wealthy, older, upscale, well-educated?

[Velasco]

So the downtown parts of Sevilla went heavily against the left.  Demographically what are these areas like, wealthy, older, upscale, well-educated?

Downtown Sevilla, that is to say the old historical quarters of the city, is comprised in a municipal district called Casco Antiguo. The district leans to the PP but it's not the more conservative part of the city. The districts of Los Remedios and Nervión are affluent and more right wing. Casco Antiguo is a touristic district and  many of the city's nightlife is located there.

Some demographic data of the district provided by the city council:

- The population pyramid shows that the district is ageing: 20% is above 64 years. The bulk of the population is between 40 and 44. No signs of natality recovery: there are less children aged 0-4 than aged 5-9. Women are 53.06% (Sevilla 52.49%) of the population and double men in the group above 70. Average age 44.45 (Sevilla 42.65); 6th highest ratio among the 11 districts.

-The proportion of foreign nationals (including EU) is 8.9 (Sevilla 5.2). Second highest ratio in the city behind Macarena.

-The average number of members by household is 2.16 (2.5). It's the lowest ratio in the city and suggest that there is a higher proportion of single member households. The district has the lowest ratio of households with at least one minor living in (20%)

The average income in Sevilla is 29929 Euros. The more affluent district is Los Remedios (42984) and the less affluent is Cerro-Amate (18866). Casco Antiguo ranks fourth with an average income of 33687 Euros.

At a neighbourhood level, the most affluent in Sevilla is Santa Clara (San Pablo-anta Justa district) with an average income around 50000 Euros, 4 times more than the poorer (Los Pajaritos in Cerro-Amate district).

I could find data for education and other indicators if I search more, but it's a bit late. I guess Downtown Sevilla is above average too.

Results in Casco Antiguo:

PP 26.3% (40.5% in 2015), AA 20.2%, Cs 19.3%, VOX 15.5%, PSOE 13.9%

Downtown Sevilla was never a good place for the PSOE, but this time the result was terrible.



-



-

 

[palandio]

In many European cities there is a huge political difference between the historical center and the surrounding inner-city high-density residential quarters (usually from 1850-1914). Not differentiating between them often leads to confusion.

In many central European cities the historical center is relatively conservative, while most of the surrounding areas are left-wing strongholds.

In many southern European cities the historical center shows very strong results for the radical left, while the surrounding areas are extremely bourgeois.

[Former President tack50]

Apparently Vox has released a list of requests to support a government. I imagine this will be further discussed in government negotiations but it's a starting point and gives an idea of their priorities:

1: Close down the regional government owned TV broadcaster: Canal Sur

2: Return healthcare to the central government

3: Return education to the central government

4: Audit and replace the infamous "Plan of Agrarian Employment" (PER), often seen as a waste of money and corruption by the right

5: Study the abolition of "superflous government organizations"

6: Defending hunting and bullfighting

7: Repealing gender related laws, including the gender violence law of 2004

8: Repealing the "Historic Memory law", which has to do with how the Civil War is treated

9: Repealing the inheritance tax

10: Reducing income tax

http://cadenaser.com/ser/2018/12/05/politica/1544034782_431367.html

Worth noting that proposals 1-3 go against Andalucia's statute of autonomy and would require a 2/3 majority, approval by the Congress of Deputies and a referendum. In other words, unachievable.

5,6,9 and 10 are doable by the regional government easily. Probably 4 as well.

Finally, proposals 7 and 8 could only repeal any extra Andalusian laws, but not the national laws passed in 2005 and 2006.

[Velasco]

In many European cities there is a huge political difference between the historical center and the surrounding inner-city high-density residential quarters (usually from 1850-1914). Not differentiating between them often leads to confusion.

In many central European cities the historical center is relatively conservative, while most of the surrounding areas are left-wing strongholds.

In many southern European cities the historical center shows very strong results for the radical left, while the surrounding areas are extremely bourgeois.

As I said before, the historical centers of Madrid and Barcelona lean Podemos.  In the case of Barcelona it's more complicated. The district of Ciutat Vella ("Old City") backed strongly Ada Colau in the 2015 local elections and voted for En Comu Podem in the general elections of 2015 and 2016, but the support dropped in regional elections as it happened elsewhere (still the strongest place in Barcelona). In the central district of Madrid, the support for Podemos is very strong in the neighbourhood of Lavapies,  which is a place with singular characteristics. Lavapies is an old quarter traditionally poor and the proportion of immigrant population is very high. Many students,  left wingers and people with alternative lifestyles seek refuge there, but gentrification is going underway and rents are rising very fast... Podemos was launched in a theatre located in Lavapies.

In most of the main Spanish capitals the city centre leans to the right. In some cases the surrounding inner-city neighbourhoods are burgueois (Chamberi or Salamanca in Madrid), particularly the off-walls city expansions built in the XIX century (Eixample in Barcelona, similar neighbourhoods in other cities). These expansions are differentiated from the city centre. Inner city areas that are old villages absorbed by the city's growth may lean to the left sometimes. The working class and poorer neighbourhoods are often placed in the periphery, in areas built to absorb the immigrant population from the countryside or other regions since the 50s and the 60s in the XX century...

[Former President tack50]

Yes and no. As you say, in Madrid and Barcelona the city center proper leans left quite hard. In Madrid Centro is probably one of the most left wing districts alongside Villa de Vallecas and Puente de Vallecas (low income districts in Madrid's periphery)

Same in Barcelona where Ciutat Vella is the most pro-Podemos district though I'm unsure of what district is the most left wing overall because of the independence debate now being the main factor in Catalan politics.

As for other cities, it seems to vary, but the city center even when it leans right it's not always the most right wing part of town and there are other exceptions than Madrid and Barcelona. Here are several examples from the 2015 local elections:

Valencia





You can clearly see PP performing well in Ciutat Vella though it's not its strongest district, that seems to be the 19th century Eixample, Pla del Real and Extramurs.

Bilbao





This one is quite weird in that the district that contains the old medieval city center is actually Ibaiondo-Casco Viejo which is actually a very left wing stronhold! (with strong results for Podemos and Bildu).

I imagine Abando is the more bourgeois 19th century city expansion looking at the strong PNV and especially PP results? Taking a quick look at Wikipedia it seems Abando used to be its own town and then got engulfed by Bilbao in its 19th century expansion.

Zaragoza





Worth noting that the Zaragoza municipal boundary includes several rural areas. In the map, the red and "light green" districts are considered mostly rural while the blue ones are considered urban districts.

In any case you can see that the strongest results for PP came in the Centro and Casco Antiguo districts (and the peripheral Distrito Sur). I imagine the same pattern holds here, where Casco Antiguo is the old medieval city center while Centro is the "new city center" from the 19th century.

Interestingly you can see a Madrid-like pattern with Podemos performing well in Casco Antiguo, but not in Centro.

Alicante



Here, District 1 seems to correspond to the old city center as it has the town hall and the port. And this time, its a massive PP stronghold with its best results city wide.

Badajoz

Finally, a smaller city. And here again the city center does give PP great results