VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[BudgieForce]

While averaging is helpful, polling is so extreme in both directions right now that I'd say it's better to ignore the average and take a side.

[BudgieForce]

The ad is dumb. But if you're getting offended by it, then you were probably voting for Gillespie anyway. And if you were still undecided after the pedo protector race baiting ads, then you were probably voting Gillespie.

[BudgieForce]

The only ad I've ever seen sink a campaign was Liddy Dole's ad calling Kay Hagan an atheist. Controversial ads usually don't change anything.

[BudgieForce]

Virginia isn't all that white. Or all that rural anymore either.

[BudgieForce]

Virginia isn't all that white. Or all that rural anymore either.

Race and Hispanic Origin   
White alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   70.0%
Black or African American alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   19.8%
American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   0.5%
Asian alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   6.6%
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(a)   0.1%
Two or More Races, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)   2.9%
Hispanic or Latino, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)(b)   9.1%
White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, July 1, 2016, (V2016)   62.4%

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/VA

That's not that white. It's slightly more white than Illinois.

[BudgieForce]

My argument was along the lines of Virginia being more mid Atlantic and less south than Uncle Sam was implying.

[BudgieForce]

I just can't wait for this week to be over because the freak out over a single ad that won't make a difference is exhausting.

[BudgieForce]

No one seems to remember that a white supremacist ran over someone with a car and killed them earlier this year. Gillespie running ads supporting the confederate monuments does nothing to discourage that people who created violence in Charlottesville and he has clearly tried to get those sort of people on his side.

Northam is up anywhere from 6% to 17% (no, I'm not calling Quinnipiac a fake poll like Trump would), so of course Gillespie would be desperate enough to try and get just anyone on his side.

Again your the biggest left-wing hack on this site,NO CANDIDATE IS WINNING BY MORE 3 POINTS.

Sure thing Mr.Unskewer...

[BudgieForce]

Holy crap are you guys annoying.

[BudgieForce]

I know that the horse race and tendency to portray politics as a reality show is ruining the political climate of the country, but oh man, this is a fun race to watch. Gillespie digging up the dead body of Jefferson Davis and prancing him around on stage while Northam calls him a Trumpite on Fox News --
 a 1m+ grassroots org denounces a moderate in the home of the nationally acceptable Moderate Neoliberal Democrat -- last four days of this are going to be fairly down.

Gillespie by a point. And Guadagno holds Murphy to 10 point margin.

HAHAHA....

[BudgieForce]

Lol now you see that in the end it# tilting republican/Toss up

Gillespie is closing hard and should finish off Northam with ads about the Redskins.

See you on the 8th since you'll both be nowhere to be found when Northam wins next tuesday.

[BudgieForce]

Can it be Tuesday already. This race has reminded me how much of an unhealthy relationship I have with politics.

[BudgieForce]

I mean the new polls indicate the race has shifted towards Gillespie about two points in the last two weeks.

If you thought Northam was ahead by more than 2 previously then you should still think he is ahead.

I thought he was ahead by 2 - 4 roughly so now I think this is a tilt D race where Northam will likely edge it out by 1% or so on the back of strong liberal turnout.

I do think this will be the first race where Trump blatantly loses something for the GOP. I actually think Gillespie would win by 2 - 4 if Clinton were president.

There is no new polls of decent quality for virginia

If another nationally respected pollster comes in and backs up The Polling Company, Optimus and Rasmussen then I'd more more willing to agree that the race is getting close. But the last two decent polls we got were from Suffolk and the Washington Post, both showing Northam up by mid single digits so forgive me for trusting them over Rasmussen.

[BudgieForce]

With Roanoke:

Roanoke - Tie
Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4

Average - Northam +0.7

Still time for the average to turn around, but Gillespie may have this. The late trend is certainly in his favor.

Im gonna slam my head into a desk.

[BudgieForce]

With Roanoke:

Roanoke - Tie
Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4

Average - Northam +0.7

Still time for the average to turn around, but Gillespie may have this. The late trend is certainly in his favor.

Im gonna slam my head into a desk.

Don't. Virginia will be fine regardless of who wins.

No, I mean I'm all for averaging out polls but we have had 4 questionable polls in a row. Your average is one decent pollster and four iffy pollsters.

[BudgieForce]

Well well well after being attacked for 2 months as a troll who looks stupid now LOL.

I mean, you right now since the election hasn't happend.

[BudgieForce]

With Roanoke:

Roanoke - Tie
Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4

Average - Northam +0.7

Still time for the average to turn around, but Gillespie may have this. The late trend is certainly in his favor.

Im gonna slam my head into a desk.

Don't. Virginia will be fine regardless of who wins.

No, I mean I'm all for averaging out polls but we have had 4 questionable polls in a row. Your average is one decent pollster and four iffy pollsters.

2016 showed us that calling polls we don't like junk doesn't work. If something shows a ridiculously impractical result like Hampton did that's one thing, but a Tie or G+2 is not an unrealistic result.

Yeah, I get that. Its just frustrating the quality of pollsters thats taking up all the oxygen.  Theres nothing wrong with wanting a nationally respected pollster to confirm what the iffy pollsters are saying.

[BudgieForce]

Nate Cohn seems to be implying we'll be getting a Sienna poll at some point. That would be nice if true.

[BudgieForce]

a month ago i was at my cousins house in north virginia and i noticed 12 northam signs and 8 gillepsie signs

earlier today when i was up there, i noticed 10 northam signs and 18 gillepsie signs

the momentum is real. i talked with a few neighbors there about their main concerns in virginia and 70% of them said "confederate statues", "american pride", "american heritage", "ms-13", etc.

You had me until the "talked with a few neighbors" part.

[BudgieForce]

https://www.nytimes.com//2017/11/05/upshot/upshot-siena-poll-gives-democrat-narrow-lead-in-virginia-governors-race.html

[BudgieForce]

This upshot poll is trash no way both candidates are below 45%.
Gillespie still is going to win,but this easily a nail biter this race is anywhere from +3 northam to plus +2 Gillespie.

Also I will make a big post on what county’s to watch and there benchmarks for both sides.
Spoiler chesterfield is a extremely important County.

First off, Sienna is among the best of the best in terms of polling firms. Secondly, when you remove the least likely to vote the numbers are:

46% Northam
43% Gillespie
2% Hyra

[BudgieForce]

This upshot poll is trash no way both candidates are below 45%.
Gillespie still is going to win,but this easily a nail biter this race is anywhere from +3 northam to plus +2 Gillespie.

Also I will make a big post on what county’s to watch and there benchmarks for both sides.
Spoiler chesterfield is a extremely important County.

First off, Sienna is among the best of the best in terms of polling firms. Secondly, when you remove the least likely to vote the numbers are:

46% Northam
43% Gillespie
2% Hyra

The only poll I can find they did in 2016 is North Carolina and it’s a garbage poll,
They had both Hillary and trump tied at 44-44 with Gary Johnson getting 3 two days before the election!

They regularly polled in 2016 during both the primary and the general.