VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[uti2]

I mean the new polls indicate the race has shifted towards Gillespie about two points in the last two weeks.

If you thought Northam was ahead by more than 2 previously then you should still think he is ahead.

I thought he was ahead by 2 - 4 roughly so now I think this is a tilt D race where Northam will likely edge it out by 1% or so on the back of strong liberal turnout.

I do think this will be the first race where Trump blatantly loses something for the GOP. I actually think Gillespie would win by 2 - 4 if Clinton were president.

Honestly Gillespie could probably win by more than that had Clinton won

Gillespie would be running a different strategy. How did he do under an Obama presidency?

If you want to make the argument about presidential approval ratings, clearly it doesn't matter when you look at Trump's.

[Keep cool-idge]

Well well well after being attacked for 2 months as a troll, who looks stupid now LOL.

[BudgieForce]

With Roanoke:

Roanoke - Tie
Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4

Average - Northam +0.7

Still time for the average to turn around, but Gillespie may have this. The late trend is certainly in his favor.

Im gonna slam my head into a desk.

Don't. Virginia will be fine regardless of who wins.

No, I mean I'm all for averaging out polls but we have had 4 questionable polls in a row. Your average is one decent pollster and four iffy pollsters.

[BudgieForce]

Well well well after being attacked for 2 months as a troll who looks stupid now LOL.

I mean, you right now since the election hasn't happend.

[GeorgiaModerate]

With Roanoke:

Roanoke - Tie
Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4

Average - Northam +0.7

Still time for the average to turn around, but Gillespie may have this. The late trend is certainly in his favor.

Im gonna slam my head into a desk.

Don't. Virginia will be fine regardless of who wins.

A colleague of mine lives in Virginia, and I asked him the other day who was going to win.  He responded "I don't know, but either way Virginia is going to lose."

[Dr. Arch]

Well well well after being attacked for 2 months as a troll who looks stupid now LOL.

Go back to playing Battlefront.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well well well after being attacked for 2 months as a troll who looks stupid now LOL.

Punctuation would help, unless you actually meant "a troll who looks stupid."

[Classic Conservative]

Lordy, can everyone take a chill pill. Northam is still going to win and y'all just overreact too much.

[Keep cool-idge]

Well well well after being attacked for 2 months as a troll who looks stupid now LOL.

I mean, you right now since the election hasn't happend.

I know that I have been saying that there would be a surge to Gillespie and that’s a 3 point race in both directions.

[Yank2133]

Northam's internals have him polling around Hillary levels (mid-30s) in rural VA. No particular enthusiasm for either candidate.

I mean, the actual story in that article is surely Northam running 15 points better than Clinton in rural Virginia. That seems like a huge thing if it's true. Then again, it's internal polling so I'm inclined to distrust it.

Yeah, if those internals are true then Ed is already DOA.

Take it with a grain of salt, but early voting numbers in NOVA look to be good for Northam and Ed can only offset such a decline in rural areas if he is exceeding his 2014 numbers in NOVA.

Hell, Northam could lose all the undecided voters in this scenario and still win by 4-5 points.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With Roanoke:

Roanoke - Tie
Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4

Average - Northam +0.7

Still time for the average to turn around, but Gillespie may have this. The late trend is certainly in his favor.

Im gonna slam my head into a desk.

Don't. Virginia will be fine regardless of who wins.

No, I mean I'm all for averaging out polls but we have had 4 questionable polls in a row. Your average is one decent pollster and four iffy pollsters.

2016 showed us that calling polls we don't like junk doesn't work. If something shows a ridiculously impractical result like Hampton did that's one thing, but a Tie or G+2 is not an unrealistic result.

[BudgieForce]

With Roanoke:

Roanoke - Tie
Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4

Average - Northam +0.7

Still time for the average to turn around, but Gillespie may have this. The late trend is certainly in his favor.

Im gonna slam my head into a desk.

Don't. Virginia will be fine regardless of who wins.

No, I mean I'm all for averaging out polls but we have had 4 questionable polls in a row. Your average is one decent pollster and four iffy pollsters.

2016 showed us that calling polls we don't like junk doesn't work. If something shows a ridiculously impractical result like Hampton did that's one thing, but a Tie or G+2 is not an unrealistic result.

Yeah, I get that. Its just frustrating the quality of pollsters thats taking up all the oxygen.  Theres nothing wrong with wanting a nationally respected pollster to confirm what the iffy pollsters are saying.

[BudgieForce]

Nate Cohn seems to be implying we'll be getting a Sienna poll at some point. That would be nice if true.

[KingSweden]

Lordy, can everyone take a chill pill. Northam is still going to win and y'all just overreact too much.

Everyone, BD of all people is being the voice of reason and I think it would behoove everyone to heed his advice

[Keep cool-idge]

Alright the pollster who got the democrats freaked out is releasing there final poll on Monday.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/926541687324860418?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Alright the pollster who got the democrats freaked out is releasing there final poll on Monday.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/926541687324860418?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

My guess: Northam +5

If it is Northam +5, I think his supporters should be pretty confident going into election day.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

With Roanoke:

Roanoke - Tie
Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4

Average - Northam +0.7

Still time for the average to turn around, but Gillespie may have this. The late trend is certainly in his favor.

Im gonna slam my head into a desk.

Don't. Virginia will be fine regardless of who wins.

No, I mean I'm all for averaging out polls but we have had 4 questionable polls in a row. Your average is one decent pollster and four iffy pollsters.

2016 showed us that calling polls we don't like junk doesn't work. *snip*

You mean like Qunnipac?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Polls are all over the place but I'm gonna guess +6 Northam

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With Roanoke:

Roanoke - Tie
Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4

Average - Northam +0.7

Still time for the average to turn around, but Gillespie may have this. The late trend is certainly in his favor.

Im gonna slam my head into a desk.

Don't. Virginia will be fine regardless of who wins.

No, I mean I'm all for averaging out polls but we have had 4 questionable polls in a row. Your average is one decent pollster and four iffy pollsters.

2016 showed us that calling polls we don't like junk doesn't work. *snip*

You mean like Qunnipac?

Did you even read the clarifying sentence I put after that:

2016 showed us that calling polls we don't like junk doesn't work. If something shows a ridiculously impractical result like Hampton did that's one thing, but a Tie or G+2 is not an unrealistic result.

Quinnipiac falls into the same "ridiculously impractical" category Hampton does.

[KingSweden]

Polls are all over the place but I'm gonna guess +6 Northam

I’m a little more bearish. I’ve figured Dr. Ralph +4 for some time.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

With Roanoke:

Roanoke - Tie
Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4

Average - Northam +0.7

Still time for the average to turn around, but Gillespie may have this. The late trend is certainly in his favor.

Im gonna slam my head into a desk.

Don't. Virginia will be fine regardless of who wins.

No, I mean I'm all for averaging out polls but we have had 4 questionable polls in a row. Your average is one decent pollster and four iffy pollsters.

2016 showed us that calling polls we don't like junk doesn't work. *snip*

You mean like Qunnipac?

Did you even read the clarifying sentence I put after that:

2016 showed us that calling polls we don't like junk doesn't work. If something shows a ridiculously impractical result like Hampton did that's one thing, but a Tie or G+2 is not an unrealistic result.

Quinnipiac falls into the same "ridiculously impractical" category Hampton does.

Excluding such polls is the antithesis of how polling averages are supposed to work.

[henster]

The same guy who ran Hick’s 2014 campaign is running Northam’s. Hmm

[Mike Thick]

On the one hand, I’m kind of perversely happy that my prediction might actually be correct. On the other hand, if Gillespie wins, the next four years are going to be North Carolina 2: Electric Boogaloo.

[_]

On the one hand, I’m kind of perversely happy that my prediction might actually be correct. On the other hand, if Gillespie wins, the next four years are going to be North Carolina 2: Electric Boogaloo.

As long as Gillespie keeps his opposition to an HB2 style bill (Which is a huge question given it's Ed Gillespie), I don't think it'd be that bad socially.

Gerrymandering though, you're completely screwed there if he wins.

[henster]

On the one hand, I’m kind of perversely happy that my prediction might actually be correct. On the other hand, if Gillespie wins, the next four years are going to be North Carolina 2: Electric Boogaloo.

It will be Brownback 2.0, has anyone seen his asinine tax plan?