VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[BigSkyBob]

Here are the basic facts in the latest Gillespie ad.

1) Terry McAuliffe attempts to grant a blanket restoration of voting rights to all convicted felons.

2) That act is challenged in court with the courts invalidating that action noting that pardons can only be issued on a case-by-case basis.

3) McAuliffe dutifully considers the merits and demerits of restoring the voting right of each and every convicted felon in Virginia.

4) One of those felons whose voting right is restored is John Bowen.

5) Two months before his pardon was granted, John Bowen had been arrested and charged for possession of child pornography. His collection is characterized as one of the largest ever discovered.

I don't see how Northam has any defenses to these sets of circumstances other than distancing himself radically from McAuliffe.

I don't see how this is anything other than a game-changer.

[Dr. Arch]

Here are the basic facts in the latest Gillespie ad.

1) Terry McAuliffe attempts to grant a blanket restoration of voting rights to all convicted felons.

2) That act is challenged in court with the courts invalidating that action noting that pardons can only be issued on a case-by-case basis.

3) McAuliffe dutifully considers the merits and demerits of restoring the voting right of each and every convicted felon in Virginia.

4) One of those felons whose voting right is restored is John Bowen.

5) Two months before his pardon was granted, John Bowen had been arrested and charged for possession of child pornography. His collection is characterized as one of the largest ever discovered.

I don't see how Northam has any defenses to these sets of circumstances other than distancing himself radically from McAuliffe.

I don't see how this is anything other than a game-changer.

Wow, really? You're actually foolish enough to fall for this kind of backhanded tomfoolery?

Ah, let me try it!

1) The GOP legislature makes tax cuts for the highest earners
2) One of the highest earners in the U.S. is caught, charged, and convicted on child pornography
3) The cuts help him
4) The GOP supports child abusers and their ability to get wealthier and have more influence in society

GR8!! I didn't know it was this easy.

[Brittain33]

Welcome back, BigSkyBob!

If The Vorlon returns, the thread will be complete.

[Dr. Arch]

@PNM: Yeah, we get it. You think Democrats will win every statewide race easily. No need to spam the entire board with this nonsense or to ridicule any prediction that doesn't show him winning by at least 5. You'd think after 2016 people would have learned this, but apparently not.

Anyway, Northam, Fairfax and especially Herring should all win, though I'm really not sure what the margins will be.

The pollsters aren't sure either.

[erſatz-york]

http://firehousestrategies.com/vagov/

It appears Optimus Prime had a child named 0ptimus polling, they've got it at:

Gillespie:  40.4
Northam:  37.4

No undecideds or Hyra.

I am not posting this abomination in the polling board.

Øptimus is the same polling firm that had Roy Moore up 55%-45% three days before Moore won 54.6%-45.4% so...

Gillespie by 2-3 pp.

[Dr. Arch]

@PNM: Yeah, we get it. You think Democrats will win every statewide race easily. No need to spam the entire board with this nonsense or to ridicule any prediction that doesn't show him winning by at least 5. You'd think after 2016 people would have learned this, but apparently not.

Anyway, Northam, Fairfax and especially Herring should all win, though I'm really not sure what the margins will be.

Nah man all this stuff is a game changer and Northam is a child rapist and now this race is safer R than NH is for climbin' Hassan

Climbin' Maggie*

GET YER MEME RIGHT

[Gass3268]

http://firehousestrategies.com/vagov/

It appears Optimus Prime had a child named 0ptimus polling, they've got it at:

Gillespie:  40.4
Northam:  37.4

No undecideds or Hyra.

I am not posting this abomination in the polling board.

Øptimus is the same polling firm that had Roy Moore up 55%-45% three days before Moore won 54.6%-45.4% so...

Gillespie by 2-3 pp.

So Gillespie is going to win 40-37?

[Virginiá]

Ok guys I think its fair to say we've all got our licks in, trolling-wise. Let's at least try to keep the discussion amicable and semi-serious.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Didn't Utter Panic and Doom break up during the late 80's?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

http://firehousestrategies.com/vagov/

It appears Optimus Prime had a child named 0ptimus polling, they've got it at:

Gillespie:  40.4
Northam:  37.4

No undecideds or Hyra.

I am not posting this abomination in the polling board.

Øptimus is the same polling firm that had Roy Moore up 55%-45% three days before Moore won 54.6%-45.4% so...

Gillespie by 2-3 pp.

Optimus also lists an alternative metric:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I will use that to avoid a calculation too favorable to Gillespie.

New Average:

Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4
Wash Post - N+5

Average - N +1.7

This is less than half of the 2013 polling error. Northam should be scared. It is just barely below the 2% danger line, so I'll wait to see if we get another poll by Monday before considering a rating adjustment.

[UncleSam]

I mean the new polls indicate the race has shifted towards Gillespie about two points in the last two weeks.

If you thought Northam was ahead by more than 2 previously then you should still think he is ahead.

I thought he was ahead by 2 - 4 roughly so now I think this is a tilt D race where Northam will likely edge it out by 1% or so on the back of strong liberal turnout.

I do think this will be the first race where Trump blatantly loses something for the GOP. I actually think Gillespie would win by 2 - 4 if Clinton were president.

[Gass3268]

The pollsters aren't sure either.

Yeah, it really doesn't help that polling is all over the place. Based on the election fundamentals and the heavy Democratic lean of the state (the latter seems to be an extremely underrated factor for some reason), I have a hard time believing that Gillespie can make it closer than 2, though. Northam winning by 2-2.5 is my current guess, and even that is probably fairly generous to Rs given that we're talking about an off-year election in VA here and the Democratic base is energized. Northam winning by more than 7 or Gillespie eking out a victory are the only two possible outcomes that would really surprise me.

I think this has been posted recently, but its a really good article explaining the vast differences in polling.

Article

[swf541]

I mean the new polls indicate the race has shifted towards Gillespie about two points in the last two weeks.

If you thought Northam was ahead by more than 2 previously then you should still think he is ahead.

I thought he was ahead by 2 - 4 roughly so now I think this is a tilt D race where Northam will likely edge it out by 1% or so on the back of strong liberal turnout.

I do think this will be the first race where Trump blatantly loses something for the GOP. I actually think Gillespie would win by 2 - 4 if Clinton were president.

There is no new polls of decent quality for virginia

[BudgieForce]

I mean the new polls indicate the race has shifted towards Gillespie about two points in the last two weeks.

If you thought Northam was ahead by more than 2 previously then you should still think he is ahead.

I thought he was ahead by 2 - 4 roughly so now I think this is a tilt D race where Northam will likely edge it out by 1% or so on the back of strong liberal turnout.

I do think this will be the first race where Trump blatantly loses something for the GOP. I actually think Gillespie would win by 2 - 4 if Clinton were president.

There is no new polls of decent quality for virginia

If another nationally respected pollster comes in and backs up The Polling Company, Optimus and Rasmussen then I'd more more willing to agree that the race is getting close. But the last two decent polls we got were from Suffolk and the Washington Post, both showing Northam up by mid single digits so forgive me for trusting them over Rasmussen.

[RogueBeaver]

Northam's internals have him polling around Hillary levels (mid-30s) in rural VA. No particular enthusiasm for either candidate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I mean the new polls indicate the race has shifted towards Gillespie about two points in the last two weeks.

If you thought Northam was ahead by more than 2 previously then you should still think he is ahead.

I thought he was ahead by 2 - 4 roughly so now I think this is a tilt D race where Northam will likely edge it out by 1% or so on the back of strong liberal turnout.

I do think this will be the first race where Trump blatantly loses something for the GOP. I actually think Gillespie would win by 2 - 4 if Clinton were president.

There is no new polls of decent quality for virginia

Wason Center (CNU) is supposed to have one out today or tomorrow, but I've been watching for it and haven't seen it yet.

[DrScholl]

The only polls that have Gillespie leading are owned by one of Trump's "staffers" or a company no one has ever heard of. That should tell you everything you need to know about the race.

[Gustaf]

Northam's internals have him polling around Hillary levels (mid-30s) in rural VA. No particular enthusiasm for either candidate.

I mean, the actual story in that article is surely Northam running 15 points better than Clinton in rural Virginia. That seems like a huge thing if it's true. Then again, it's internal polling so I'm inclined to distrust it.

[RogueBeaver]

FWIW, Roanoke has a 47/47 tie. Previous one was 50/44 Northam.

[uti2]

I mean the new polls indicate the race has shifted towards Gillespie about two points in the last two weeks.

If you thought Northam was ahead by more than 2 previously then you should still think he is ahead.

I thought he was ahead by 2 - 4 roughly so now I think this is a tilt D race where Northam will likely edge it out by 1% or so on the back of strong liberal turnout.

I do think this will be the first race where Trump blatantly loses something for the GOP. I actually think Gillespie would win by 2 - 4 if Clinton were president.

Gillespie would never have run his current style of campaign without Trump. His earlier campaigns are radically different from this one.

[KingSweden]

I mean the new polls indicate the race has shifted towards Gillespie about two points in the last two weeks.

If you thought Northam was ahead by more than 2 previously then you should still think he is ahead.

I thought he was ahead by 2 - 4 roughly so now I think this is a tilt D race where Northam will likely edge it out by 1% or so on the back of strong liberal turnout.

I do think this will be the first race where Trump blatantly loses something for the GOP. I actually think Gillespie would win by 2 - 4 if Clinton were president.

Honestly Gillespie could probably win by more than that had Clinton won

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With Roanoke:

Roanoke - Tie
Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4

Average - Northam +0.7

Still time for the average to turn around, but Gillespie may have this. The late trend is certainly in his favor.

[BudgieForce]

With Roanoke:

Roanoke - Tie
Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4

Average - Northam +0.7

Still time for the average to turn around, but Gillespie may have this. The late trend is certainly in his favor.

Im gonna slam my head into a desk.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With Roanoke:

Roanoke - Tie
Optimus - N + 1.5
Rasmussen - Tie
Polling Company - G+2
Suffolk - N+4

Average - Northam +0.7

Still time for the average to turn around, but Gillespie may have this. The late trend is certainly in his favor.

Im gonna slam my head into a desk.

Don't. Virginia will be fine regardless of who wins.

[UncleSam]

https://www.roanoke.edu/about/news/rc_poll_politics_nov_2017

47/47, Gillespie leading by high single digits among independents. Sample seems fairly consistent with national polls on a trump approval (36/53).

Much worse poll for Northam than previous ones, honestly. If 'independents' are still breaking towards Republicans in Virginia regardless of disliking Trump and Northam started with a smaller lead than Warner or Clinton this could be bad for him.

Still think Northam pulls it out in the end but I actually think there is a strong chance Gillespie wins if the election were held today. We will see whether the final news cycle of the race brings anything interesting with it - I'll bet Northam can't really decline any further among independents without a serious gaffe, so if he can just right the ship and close with a positive message I'll be the gets back just enough support to win in a state that should not be this close and should never have been close.

I thought Northam was the stronger candidate in the primary, but I'm having my doubts now. I wonder if his saying he will sign a sanctuary cities ban bill might actually help him among independents - I doubt many sanctuary citiy supporters would vote for someone else anyway, and it might end up being a now tactical ploy to blunt one of Gillespie's strongest and most-founded attack lines in the lead up to the election. Could also backfire in base turnout of course, but we will see.