Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[GoTfan]

I think Russia's problem is that that they really are racing against time. Having your Stock Exchange closed for this long and raising interest rates to 20% are not good signs.

Putin was likely banking on NATO being disunited and the international response being uncoordinated. This has had the complete opposite effect of course. In a recent video, it was reported that he basically wanted no more sanctions and was hoping to restore international cooperation. This might just be me reading into it, but it sounded like he might be softening his line. Slightly.

He was also banking on China coming to his rescue, which hasn't happened and I don't believe will happen.

As far as the military side of things, we know he likely banked on the Ukranina Military being a paper tiger, but that didn't come true either. Not to mention that the invasion force is dealing with massive logistical issues, to the point thwere the Ukranians were even able to reportedly mount a counterattack in Kharkiv and drive them back over the border. Ignoring cities is all well and good, but you run into the same problem the Germans did at theBattle of the Bulge: leaving significant enemy forces in your rear. OSINT accounts on Twitter are rife with reports that Ukranian special forces are already causing havoc behind the lines.

In addition, a lot of these OSINT accounts are also reporting that the Russians are moving equipment into Ukraine from the Far East, but take that with a grain of salt. If this is true, then it will take at least 1-2 weeks for those troops to be in position. And given the logistical issues that the Russians are having, probably even longer.

Hell, that 64km convoy is not really one long convoy, it's just smaller ones who bunched up because, the words of Clarke and Dawe, the front fell off. More specifically, some estimate that the first 17km f the convoy is likely running incredibly low on food as well, not just fuel. With Rasputitsa just around the corner, the Russian have a very limited window to either un-screw their logistics, or hope that the southern front is able to push an incredible distance in a short time.

Right now, it's a question of whether the Russian economy or Ukranian resistance cracks first.

I think we do need to keep a level head: it's incredibly likely that Ukraine falls. However, it is far, far easier to invade a country than it is to occupy it, especially when the entire population is against you. There's already signs of civilian resistance in Kherson. Not to mention that Russia would have to commit likely 400,000 troops at a minimum to quell any guerrilla movements. The problem Russia has with committing that many troops is that they have a lot of other borders to cover as well. I can't see them pulling significant forces from the northwest or the Far East, because that would mean abandoning their watches on NATO and China.

I do think that Russia will succeed in the short term. Long term however? I'm not sure. I don't personally think that the people below Putin have the same Machiavellian instincts that he does because they've been able to rely on him for all of Russia's manouevering.

Ukraine's hope for a conventional victory is either a negotiated peace, which Bennett is hopefully able to work towards, or that Russia's economy breaks.

[NOVA Green]

Zelenskiy chats with Musk and inviting him to visit Ukraine after the war (Per The Guardian)

"Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy recently spoke to SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, inviting him to visit after the war.

Zelenskiy shared a video of the call on social media shortly after Ukraine announced it would receive more Starlink satellite internet terminals for destroyed cities from the company next week.

“So if you have time - after the war - you’re very welcome. I invite you,” Zelenskiy says. “Sounds good. I look forward to visiting,” Musk replies.

Watch video of the call below".

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/05/russia-ukraine-war-latest-news-nato-gives-green-light-to-bombing-with-lack-of-no-fly-zone-says-zelenskiy

[Hindsight was 2020]

TBH GoTfan through most of this conflict I was in the same mindset as you but now I’m actually having doubts Ukraine is actually gonna fall. The initial invasion stage as gone so bad for Russia I’m really having my doubts they will successfully pull off an invasion

[GoTfan]

TBH GoTfan through most of this conflict I was in the same mindset as you but now I’m actually having doubts Ukraine is actually gonna fall. The initial invasion stage as gone so bad for Russia I’m really having my doubts they will successfully pull off an invasion

I'd be very, very careful about assuming that. Let's not forget, Russia still possesses an extremely heavy advantage almost everywhere, and I can't see them retreating anytime soon. They've also sustained an advance rate of roughly 60-70 km a day, which is roughly what an armoured division can be expected to do. And like you said, this is only the initial stage.

The problem Russia has is that every hour this drags on, the worse the economic pain is going to be for them. And the longer this drags on, the more I can see the possibility of the US and EU blanket banning Russian oil and gas. If the public will is there, they'll do it. If they do it, Russia is finished because their only market will be China, and the Chinese will be able to set the prices because Putin will be desperate for cash.

[brucejoel99]

TBH GoTfan through most of this conflict I was in the same mindset as you but now I’m actually having doubts Ukraine is actually gonna fall. The initial invasion stage as gone so bad for Russia I’m really having my doubts they will successfully pull off an invasion

Funny that you happened to say that right when you did, because Kyiv made it to its 11th post-invasion sunrise without being captured a little over half-an-hour ago now, after having been penciled in by the Russians to fall on Day 2. Everyday with Kyiv intact is a day in Ukraine's favor, so personally, I don't think that it's a stretch to say that this whole thing could go either way at this point. For Ukraine, the longer the war, the better (militarily, not humanitarianly speaking): even without NATO intervention, Ukraine can still continuously resupply from the West while Russia burns through its stockpiles.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I lean towards No on this (while being persuadable to support Yes). The only way this will work is if Russia literally cannot find a place to sell its oil. And I doubt that is possible.
The intentions of such moves are noble, but these are likely to marginally increase American oil and gas prices without costing the Russians enough to justify the reduction in supply diversification. Gas is already, what, 4 dollars a galloon? And when you get past the feel-good statements on part of corporate America on this issue, this WILL likely result in higher prices for the common man in this country at the gas pump.
Just because something is a sanction doesn't mean it's worthy to do. Sometimes doing nothing is better than doing something. Let's not fetishize action at the expense of effective policy.

 Of course they will find some place to sell some of the Royal. No one's believing that there will be a 100% worldwide it blockade or a bargo on Russian oil and gas. The point is obvious supply and demand. The demand for Russian gas and oil decreases dramatically, that f**** Putin  Tremendously. China is right now for example buying all the gas and oil it needs from Russia. It's suddenly not going to buy more gas and oil that it doesn't need, and neither are most other countries, to take up the slack.

There's a LOT of potential and contemporary oil and gas consumers in the Third World.
I think for this to really work, we need the support of the Arab World. Otherwise, Putin can sell oil to Arab governments and then they can de facto circumvent the sanctions.

 And those 3rd world consumers are already purchasing gas and oil at the levels they need. Yes, theoretically some countries could buy up access Russia Russian gas at a cut throat low price, but who is really ready to do that? Mark Eritrea? North Korea?? And the rock bottom price Russia would have to sell it at is is going to further seriously harm Russia's bankroll.

These (oil-importing) third world countries would be signing up for de facto economic warfare against themselves if they were going to go along with sanctions on Russian oil, and what's more, some of them have long bought Russian. Russian oil being in the mix impacts supply and demand. Oil imports getting more expensive would be taxing to these countries.

The long-term costs of a sanction of Russian oil and gas would likely be met in significant part by Western consumers. Yes the Russians would pay a significant cost, and it's not necessarily insane economically for America, but sanctions of this sort are likely not territory that is economical in the long-run.

We actually help our ability to help Ukraine if we only do what is economical anyway.

 You are missing the point. No one is talking about a worldwide embargo on Russian oil and gas. That would be great to come up with no 1 is expecting that period we're talking about Is an American embargo on Russian oil and gas. You see, Russia has a tremendous amount of financial investment in their oil and gas exportation. So if it is reduced, and there are not going to be other people buying as much, then Russia makes less money. There won't be magically other people to buy oil at the same price should we induce such an embargo.

For this sort of thing, I'm inclined to go big or go home. It's a largely meaningless gesture that on net taxes Americans marginally, IF this is a US-only thing. The zeitgeist is already making it sort of done anyway, as corporate America has decided to virtue-signal once again and they benefit from higher prices from the exclusion of Russian oil and gas from the market. The major markets for Russia aren't in America anyway, they are elsewhere. (Like India, I would assume)

snip

Is Russia a comparatively large oil and gas supplier to the US? I assumed not. I had not looked at statistics.
Had to look it up.
Russia supplies 7 percent of our imported oil. That's not a lot. It's even less considering that a huge chunk of our oil is domestic and not foreign. But let's not try to tell ourselves that banning Russian oil will do much for Ukraine at all.

What Ukraine most needs is stability in Eastern Europe so that it's not borderlands for west-east conflict (if possible), and what it does not need is to be a warzone.

I favor big, grand gambits and even-handed compromises to entrench a status quo that will leave Ukraine in peace and allow us to focus on countering China in a reasoned way. But as a pragmatist I can see why politicians would favor something quick and easy, something that virtue signals but barely changes a thing, over something that does more profound and lasting change but might be quite hard.

I stand by my words about fetishizing action in policy being an unideal thing from a policy standpoint. There are indeed times when doing nothing is the best approach, when things not done is just as important to boosting one's position than things that are done.
EDIT: I was however massive wrong about Indian oil imports. Only 2 percent of India's oil is imported from Russia. Comes to show this is an area my knowledge is relatively weaker in.

[Hindsight was 2020]

TBH GoTfan through most of this conflict I was in the same mindset as you but now I’m actually having doubts Ukraine is actually gonna fall. The initial invasion stage as gone so bad for Russia I’m really having my doubts they will successfully pull off an invasion

I'd be very, very careful about assuming that. Let's not forget, Russia still possesses an extremely heavy advantage almost everywhere, and I can't see them retreating anytime soon. They've also sustained an advance rate of roughly 60-70 km a day, which is roughly what an armoured division can be expected to do. And like you said, this is only the initial stage.

The problem Russia has is that every hour this drags on, the worse the economic pain is going to be for them. And the longer this drags on, the more I can see the possibility of the US and EU blanket banning Russian oil and gas. If the public will is there, they'll do it. If they do it, Russia is finished because their only market will be China, and the Chinese will be able to set the prices because Putin will be desperate for cash.

While Russia does hold the advantages on paper and are still advancing they are facing terrible logistical issues, they failed to knock out Ukraine’s Air Force which is causing havoc on the ground, we are fastly entering spring which means those tanks and mechanized divisions get stuck in mud, and the more and more time Russia is running behind schedule the more Ukraine can get western weapons and mobilize reserves and civilians

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1500310700010491905

[GoTfan]

TBH GoTfan through most of this conflict I was in the same mindset as you but now I’m actually having doubts Ukraine is actually gonna fall. The initial invasion stage as gone so bad for Russia I’m really having my doubts they will successfully pull off an invasion

I'd be very, very careful about assuming that. Let's not forget, Russia still possesses an extremely heavy advantage almost everywhere, and I can't see them retreating anytime soon. They've also sustained an advance rate of roughly 60-70 km a day, which is roughly what an armoured division can be expected to do. And like you said, this is only the initial stage.

The problem Russia has is that every hour this drags on, the worse the economic pain is going to be for them. And the longer this drags on, the more I can see the possibility of the US and EU blanket banning Russian oil and gas. If the public will is there, they'll do it. If they do it, Russia is finished because their only market will be China, and the Chinese will be able to set the prices because Putin will be desperate for cash.

While Russia does hold the advantages on paper and are still advancing they are facing terrible logistical issues, they failed to knock out Ukraine’s Air Force which is causing havoc on the ground, we are fastly entering spring which means those tanks and mechanized divisions get stuck in mud, and the more and more time Russia is running behind schedule the more Ukraine can get western weapons and mobilize reserves and civilians

Honestly, everything about this invasion can be summed up with that saying from Clarke and Dawe:

"The front fell off"

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

TBH GoTfan through most of this conflict I was in the same mindset as you but now I’m actually having doubts Ukraine is actually gonna fall. The initial invasion stage as gone so bad for Russia I’m really having my doubts they will successfully pull off an invasion

I'd be very, very careful about assuming that. Let's not forget, Russia still possesses an extremely heavy advantage almost everywhere, and I can't see them retreating anytime soon. They've also sustained an advance rate of roughly 60-70 km a day, which is roughly what an armoured division can be expected to do. And like you said, this is only the initial stage.

The problem Russia has is that every hour this drags on, the worse the economic pain is going to be for them. And the longer this drags on, the more I can see the possibility of the US and EU blanket banning Russian oil and gas. If the public will is there, they'll do it. If they do it, Russia is finished because their only market will be China, and the Chinese will be able to set the prices because Putin will be desperate for cash.

While Russia does hold the advantages on paper and are still advancing they are facing terrible logistical issues, they failed to knock out Ukraine’s Air Force which is causing havoc on the ground, we are fastly entering spring which means those tanks and mechanized divisions get stuck in mud, and the more and more time Russia is running behind schedule the more Ukraine can get western weapons and mobilize reserves and civilians

Honestly, everything about this invasion can be summed up with that saying from Clarke and Dawe:

"The front fell off"

"No battle plan survives contact with the enemy."

[Hindsight was 2020]

Hell I didn’t cover Russia’s biggest issue of the fact their troop morale is low and they don’t seem to have the will or desire for this fight

[It’s so Joever]

I think y’all are underestimating Russia a bit. While yes the invasion could have gone better, they still are making important advances. Invasions don’t just happen overnight.

[emailking]

Yeah I think Russia wins the war, but a Ukraine win looks like less of a long shot than it did a week ago.

[2952-0-0]

https://twitter.com/olga_chyzh/status/1500257111770550273

tl;dr: Don't expect western sanctions to force the oligarchs and siloviki to overthrow Putin, because the political logic doesn't support them. But, the sanctions will cripple the Russian state and its war effort.

Plot twist: Russia loses the war in disgrace, but Putin stays on to rule Russia like post-1991 Saddam Hussein.

I think y’all are underestimating Russia a bit. While yes the invasion could have gone better, they still are making important advances. Invasions don’t just happen overnight.

True, but Ukraine is beginning to receive the flood of very effective weaponry from the west. Russia's advance will be crippled if Ukraine repeats yesterday's successes against its air assets.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I think y’all are underestimating Russia a bit. While yes the invasion could have gone better, they still are making important advances. Invasions don’t just happen overnight.

I mean we are on day 11 and Kyiv is not only standing but Russia isn’t even attacking it on the ground anymore. The convoy is not even moving anymore and they don’t control any of the important cities. Yeah they have made advances but still

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

We have to consider what we mean by "win" here. Take Kiev and impose a set of borders and puppet gov't sure that is possible. But that isn't enough to avoid getting bled dry by resistance, especially in Western and South Western Ukraine.

[Hindsight was 2020]

We have to consider what we mean by "win" here. Take Kiev and impose a set of borders and puppet gov't sure that is possible. But that isn't enough to avoid getting bled dry by resistance, especially in Western and South Western Ukraine.

Hell I don’t even know how that could result any type of ending for Russia that can be considered a “win” as they either put the puppet in and just leave but by the time the last Russian troopers leave the country that puppet president would be hanging upside down in center of Kyiv Mussolini style or as GoTfan mentioned they’ll have to keep anywhere from 400-500k soldiers in to prop the puppet up and result in a Iraq occupation style quagmire

[GoTfan]

Apparently the reason for the heavy Russian Air Force losses is that they're low on or out of Precision Guided Munitions (PGMs), meaning they have to get closer to their target to drop their ordnance.

Right into the teeth of Ukraine's short-range aire defences.

[Splash]

The Ukrainians have been able to conduct some successful localized counterattacks in the northern and northwestern suburbs of Kyiv as well as in the outskirts of Kharkiv over the past 48 hours. At this point, I am wondering if the Russian military can even surround and siege Kyiv effectively. Even if they were successful, I imagine the parameter would be incredibly porous, given the Russian tendency to stick to the major roadways thus far. For the sake of everyone in the region, I hope we'll never have to find out.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

We have to consider what we mean by "win" here. Take Kiev and impose a set of borders and puppet gov't sure that is possible. But that isn't enough to avoid getting bled dry by resistance, especially in Western and South Western Ukraine.

I really wish folks predicting a Russian win can expand on what that actually means. Russia taking over the whole country? Just the Eastern part? I also wonder, particularly among the "Russia will win because they just will" contingent, if there's an over-emphasis on the numbers game and not even on the logistical, economical & morale problems Russia has. Every day Russia doesn't advance towards Kiev is another day where Ukraine can resupply & add defense.

At this point in time, I can't see Russia taking all of Ukraine. As you alluded to, almost all of the fighting has taken place in the pro-Russian regions on flatter, favorable terrain against a seemingly unprepared target. For the Russians, this was as close to a cakewalk as you could get for an invasion. If they're having this much trouble, how the hell are they gonna fare out west on rougher terrain & even stronger resistance.

I think this ends with a West & East Ukraine, with the main question being what side Kiev lies on (Unless it's cut in half which I can easily see)

[Frodo]

We have to consider what we mean by "win" here. Take Kiev and impose a set of borders and puppet gov't sure that is possible. But that isn't enough to avoid getting bled dry by resistance, especially in Western and South Western Ukraine.

I really wish folks predicting a Russian win can expand on what that actually means. Russia taking over the whole country? Just the Eastern part? I also wonder, particularly among the "Russia will win because they just will" contingent, if there's an over-emphasis on the numbers game and not even on the logistical, economical & morale problems Russia has. Every day Russia doesn't advance towards Kiev is another day where Ukraine can resupply & add defense.

And as you alluded to, almost all of the fighting has taken place in the pro-Russian regions on flatter, favorable terrain. If Russia is having this much trouble, I don't know how they're gonna fare much better out west on rougher terrain & even stronger resistance.

Personally, at this point in time, I just can't see Russia taking all of Ukraine. I think this ends with a West & East Ukraine, with the main question being what side Kiev lies on (Unless it's cut in half which I can easily see)

I am glad I am not the only one who thinks this. 

[emailking]

We have to consider what we mean by "win" here. Take Kiev and impose a set of borders and puppet gov't sure that is possible. But that isn't enough to avoid getting bled dry by resistance, especially in Western and South Western Ukraine.

I really wish folks predicting a Russian win can expand on what that actually means. Russia taking over the whole country? Just the Eastern part? I also wonder, particularly among the "Russia will win because they just will" contingent, if there's an over-emphasis on the numbers game and not even on the logistical, economical & morale problems Russia has. Every day Russia doesn't advance towards Kiev is another day where Ukraine can resupply & add defense.

At this point in time, I can't see Russia taking all of Ukraine. As you alluded to, almost all of the fighting has taken place in the pro-Russian regions on flatter, favorable terrain against a seemingly unprepared target. For the Russians, this was as close to a cakewalk as you could get for an invasion. If they're having this much trouble, how the hell are they gonna fare out west on rougher terrain & even stronger resistance.

I think this ends with a West & East Ukraine, with the main question being what side Kiev lies on (Unless it's cut in half which I can easily see)

It's just a best guess. Like I don't have a good answer for that stuff. A win would be like what Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee described.

[Hammy]

I think y’all are underestimating Russia a bit. While yes the invasion could have gone better, they still are making important advances. Invasions don’t just happen overnight.

Russia is failing miserably at meeting the benchmarks they themselves set. Even if they are ultimately successful, this has still been a huge disaster for them.

[Former President tack50]

We have to consider what we mean by "win" here. Take Kiev and impose a set of borders and puppet gov't sure that is possible. But that isn't enough to avoid getting bled dry by resistance, especially in Western and South Western Ukraine.

Also as the US themselves learned in Afghanistan and Irak, it's one thing to invade a country and put in a new government. It's a very different thing to assert effective control of the country.

Admittedly Ukraine's geography is much worse for an insurgency than Afghanistan or even Irak, but even if Russia does take control of all of Ukraine (which is not a guarantee, even if long term it is still the likeliest scenario); they will have tons of problems asserting their control.

[President Johnson]

I think y’all are underestimating Russia a bit. While yes the invasion could have gone better, they still are making important advances. Invasions don’t just happen overnight.

Russia is failing miserably at meeting the benchmarks they themselves set. Even if they are ultimately successful, this has still been a huge disaster for them.

In the long run, absolutely. Even if Ukraine falls, occupation is a much harder business as has already been stated. It's almost impossible when >98% of the population is against you. In a country as large as Ukraine, they would have committ at least half a million troops.

Putin totally underestimated this, and since he's only surrounded by Yes-men, nobody told him the truth. I'm still surprised he didn't even take a lesson from history, as examples in Afghanistan for both the USSR and US have shown, or even Vietnam. Kinda reminds me of a scene in the movie Path to War, when presidential adviser (and later Defense Secretary) Clark Clifford, an early skeptic of the Vietnam War, said at a cabinet meeting around 1965 that about one million men would be needed in Vietnam, which left everyone else in the room speechless. He was proven right in the end, and Lyndon unfortunately didn't listen to him.