NY-23 Special Election: November 3, 2009

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

What will be funny is if/when some GOP types spin this loss arguing that the GOP candidate + Hoffman combined actually got the majority of the vote.

not that the Democrats have any spin possible for Virginia, with New Jersey we'll claim that all incumbents are unpopular right now and point to some mayoral races to justify it

I don't think it's necessarily untrue.  I think if the GOP would've done this race right, and made sure they got fully behind a candidate (whether it was Hoffman or Scozzafava), I think we would've won.  I see this as a major GOP failure in organization and leadership.

[Sarnstrom]

MSNBC: Hoffman Concedes!

[cinyc]

I guess FOX is the only one to call it so far.  I didn't think Hoffman had a chance at this point - is there a reason the other networks are hesitating?

It should be pretty clear.  Hoffman's not making up a 4,500-vote gap when Democrat-leaning St. Lawrence County is what's mainly out.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

CNN called it, and Hoffman conceded.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I guess FOX is the only one to call it so far.  I didn't think Hoffman had a chance at this point - is there a reason the other networks are hesitating?

It should be pretty clear.  Hoffman's not making up a 4,500-vote gap when Democrat-leaning St. Lawrence County is what's mainly out.

Oh - I wholeheartedly agree.  I'm not sure why CNN just now called it though - we haven't had precincts come in for a while, and nobody else has - maybe they just got tired of waiting?  But that seemed weird - there was no reason for calling it just now that wasn't there 20 minutes ago.

[ag]

Well, that's the lesson: had out-of-state Republicans not made this race an issue, the night would have been completely bleak for the Dems.  This way, it became a case study in what happens when people from Alaska start making favorites in their party's internal affairs in New York. NY Republicans should urgently disassociate from the national party, unless they want their state to go the New England direction. Locally they are alive and kicking - but the national Republican albatross is screwing them royally in national races.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Well, that's the lesson: had out-of-state Republicans not made this race an issue, the night would have been completely bleak for the Dems.  This way, it became a case study in what happens when people from Alaska start making favorites in their party's internal affairs in New York. NY Republicans should urgently disassociate from the national party, unless they want their state to go the New England direction. Locally they are alive and kicking - but the national Republican albatross is screwing them royally in national races.

But that's politics, and NY Repubs should've seen it coming, and adjusted they're strategy.  I'm not saying they necessarily should've gone with Hoffman to begin with, but it's not like I completely blame this on Palin (although I am pissed that she endorsed Hoffman).

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

MSNBC called it, but Politico stopped updating.

[Iosif]

33.28% in:
Owens 49.87%   
Hoffman 45.08%
Scozzafava 5.05%   

Looks like to me Owens should be favored right now.  But we need to see full counties before I can make this a 100% sure observation.

Wow. What an oracle. Top notch stuff, Sam. We're really lucky to have your expert insights.

Your mama must be so proud she raised a political colossus.

[ag]

Well, that's the lesson: had out-of-state Republicans not made this race an issue, the night would have been completely bleak for the Dems.  This way, it became a case study in what happens when people from Alaska start making favorites in their party's internal affairs in New York. NY Republicans should urgently disassociate from the national party, unless they want their state to go the New England direction. Locally they are alive and kicking - but the national Republican albatross is screwing them royally in national races.

But that's politics, and NY Repubs should've seen it coming, and adjusted they're strategy.  I'm not saying they necessarily should've gone with Hoffman to begin with, but it's not like I completely blame this on Palin (although I am pissed that she endorsed Hoffman).

Hoffman, had he been nominated from the beginning, wouldn't have caused any excitement on the right - he'd be a run-of-the-mill national republican candidate.  It would have been a purely local race. Hoffman might have won in that case, as this was a good day for Republicans - but I wouldn't be betting on that. In any case, he'd be very easy to redistrict out of existence in 4 years' time. A popular moderate incumbent like Scozzafava would have remained there for years to come, it would be hard to redistrict her away, she'd be a danger if they tried to put her in a district w/ a Dem, she wouldn't have been getting even serious challenges otherwise.  Now, as long as Owens holds it for two cycles he can be made safe (or else, if NY population losses don't leave Dems w/ a choice, he'll go into the primary w/ another Dem for a safe Dem district).  

Remember: Vermont was as loyally Republican as Republican states get not that long ago. Upstate is different, but is it that much different, really?

As of this point, out of 51 House seats in NY-New England, Dems control 49, Reps control 2. Time for the smart jokes to start (as in: "the Northeastern House Republican delegation has just started on its way to DC. In a Smart").

[Swing Voter]

I knew that this crazy would lose.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Well, that's the lesson: had out-of-state Republicans not made this race an issue, the night would have been completely bleak for the Dems.  This way, it became a case study in what happens when people from Alaska start making favorites in their party's internal affairs in New York. NY Republicans should urgently disassociate from the national party, unless they want their state to go the New England direction. Locally they are alive and kicking - but the national Republican albatross is screwing them royally in national races.

But that's politics, and NY Repubs should've seen it coming, and adjusted they're strategy.  I'm not saying they necessarily should've gone with Hoffman to begin with, but it's not like I completely blame this on Palin (although I am pissed that she endorsed Hoffman).

Hoffman, had he been nominated from the beginning, wouldn't have caused any excitement on the right - he'd be a run-of-the-mill national republican candidate.  It would have been a purely local race. Hoffman might have won in that case, as this was a good day for Republicans - but I wouldn't be betting on that. In any case, he'd be very easy to redistrict out of existence in 4 years' time. A popular moderate incumbent like Scozzafava would have remained there for years to come, it would be hard to redistrict her away, she'd be a danger if they tried to put her in a district w/ a Dem, she wouldn't have been getting even serious challenges otherwise.  Now, as long as Owens holds it for two cycles he can be made safe (or else, if NY population losses don't leave Dems w/ a choice, he'll go into the primary w/ another Dem for a safe Dem district).  

Remember: Vermont was as loyally Republican as Republican states get not that long ago. Upstate is different, but is it that much different, really?

As of this point, out of 51 House seats in NY-New England, Dems control 49, Reps control 2. Time for the smart jokes to start (as in: "the Northeastern House Republican delegation has just started on its way to DC. In a Smart").

Again - I'm not saying I think Hoffman should have been nominated (I'm not sayin I think he shouldn't have either) - I'm simply saying - the GOP, New York, and national, as a whole could've handled this better.

[ag]

Yes. They should have dealt w/ this better. That's the same thing mom told Dick when he accidentally killed his granny because he wanted to see if she could fly if he pushed her off the cliff. The best national Republicans can do about congressional races in the Northeast these days is get the funding, get the Committee assignment promises and keep their mouths shut. The local county chairmen, those "impostors" who imposed Scozzafava, actually knew what they were doing. So did Gingrich.

The problem is: Republicans are simply leaving too much space in the region. Voters are now not happy about the Dems, but locally there isn't anybody else to go to. Eventually, somebody is going to try to take that space. And then local Republicans would have to pray that in the two-party system they are not the third party.

The Conservative challenge this time is a symptom. But the true challenge will come from elsewhere.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Yes. They should have dealt w/ this better. That's the same thing mom told Dick when he accidentally killed his granny because he wanted to see if she could fly if he pushed her off the cliff. The best national Republicans can do about congressional races in the Northeast these days is get the funding, get the Committee assignment promises and keep their mouths shut. The local county chairmen, those "impostors" who imposed Scozzafava, actually knew what they were doing. So did Gingrich.

The problem is: Republicans are simply leaving too much space in the region. Voters are now not happy about the Dems, but locally there isn't anybody else to go to. Eventually, somebody is going to try to take that space. And then local Republicans would have to pray that in the two-party system they are not the third party.

The Conservative challenge this time is a symptom. But the true challenge will come from elsewhere.

What do you mean they left too much space in the region?

Also, Politico has now finally called the race.

[Lunar]

my good friend's mother slept with Doug Hoffman

is he a freak I bet he's a freak

It's a little unfair to judge the poor kid based on who his mother sleeps with.

Now c'mon, Hoffman may have lost but he's hardly a kid

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Yep - it's a seat we never should've lost.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Fantastic map, jfern.

[ag]

[quote author=Governor, Fmr. Chairman, Fmr. Judge, & Queen Mum Inks.LWC

What do you mean they left too much space in the region?

[/quote]

I mean political and ideological space. A two-party system needs two parties. Republicans are loosing in their last remaining natural strongholds in NY - and they barely have any places left that could be called their strongholds in New England.  They are simply leaving an opening for a challenge for the role of the opposition.

And no, it's not the same as Dems in the South. Between minorities, northern transplants and university/urban liberals Dems have enough support almost everywhere in the region to ensure that they are safe as the second party. Republicans in the "core Northeast" are fast approaching the point where that's not the case.

[cinyc]

90.58% in:
Owens 49.25%      (62,966)   
Hoffman 45.22%    (57,809)
Scozzafava 5.52%   (7,063)

[cinyc]

I mean political and ideological space. A two-party system needs two parties. Republicans are loosing in their last remaining natural strongholds in NY - and they barely have any places left that could be called their strongholds in New England.  They are simply leaving an opening for a challenge for the role of the opposition.

And no, it's not the same as Dems in the South. Between minorities, northern transplants and university/urban liberals Dems have enough support almost everywhere in the region to ensure that they are safe as the second party. Republicans in the "core Northeast" are fast approaching the point where that's not the case.

Republicans won the NJ governors' race and Westchester NY County Executive race.  They've given the supposedly popular up-and-coming Nassau County NY Executive the run for his life - and may end up beating him.  They hold the governorships in Connecticut, Vermont and Rhode Island, and US Senate Seats in Maine and New Hampshire.

Republicans are far from being unsafe as the second party in the "core Northeast" - on the federal or state levels.  In fact, signs in the local races this election point to a Republican rebirth in the NYC suburbs. Chris Dodd should be very wary.

[Sam Spade]

I mean political and ideological space. A two-party system needs two parties. Republicans are loosing in their last remaining natural strongholds in NY - and they barely have any places left that could be called their strongholds in New England.  They are simply leaving an opening for a challenge for the role of the opposition.

And no, it's not the same as Dems in the South. Between minorities, northern transplants and university/urban liberals Dems have enough support almost everywhere in the region to ensure that they are safe as the second party. Republicans in the "core Northeast" are fast approaching the point where that's not the case.

Republicans won the NJ governors' race and Westchester NY County Executive race.  They've given the supposedly popular up-and-coming Nassau County NY Executive the run for his life - and may end up beating him.  They hold the governorships in Connecticut, Vermont and Rhode Island, and US Senate Seats in Maine and New Hampshire.

Republicans are far from being unsafe as the second party in the "core Northeast" - on the federal or state levels.  In fact, signs in the local races this election point to a Republican rebirth in the NYC suburbs. Chris Dodd should be very wary.

Folks, just as a minor point - there could be notable differences between incumbent challenges and open-seat elections right now.

It would explain a lot.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

We actually had a discussion about this in my College Repub group a couple weeks ago - why we're performing terribly in the Northeast - and it's because Palin Repubs come in and don't like the Vermont/NY/ME-style Repubs and characterize them as RINOs.  Heck - if you vote with the party 50.000001% of the time - even if it's only 1 vote more with the party than with the Dems - I'll take you over a hard core Dem.

[cinyc]

Folks, just as a minor point - there could be notable differences between incumbent challenges and open-seat elections right now.

It would explain a lot.

No doubt there was an anti-incumbent undercurrent in today's election results.  But there was no incumbent in Virginia - Deeds ran a crappy campaign, as did Scozzafava.  Even if Hoffman weren't in the race, Scozzafava likely would have lost.  She was a horrible candidate.  You can't call the cops on the press and expect to be treated seriously.

BTW - Scozzafava's percentage should go up as absentees are counted.  Best I can tell, they haven't been yet.

[ag]

I mean political and ideological space. A two-party system needs two parties. Republicans are loosing in their last remaining natural strongholds in NY - and they barely have any places left that could be called their strongholds in New England.  They are simply leaving an opening for a challenge for the role of the opposition.

And no, it's not the same as Dems in the South. Between minorities, northern transplants and university/urban liberals Dems have enough support almost everywhere in the region to ensure that they are safe as the second party. Republicans in the "core Northeast" are fast approaching the point where that's not the case.

Republicans won the NJ governors' race and Westchester NY County Executive race.  They've given the supposedly popular up-and-coming Nassau County NY Executive the run for his life - and may end up beating him.  They hold the governorships in Connecticut, Vermont and Rhode Island, and US Senate Seats in Maine and New Hampshire.

Republicans are far from being unsafe as the second party in the "core Northeast" - on the federal or state levels.  In fact, signs in the local races this election point to a Republican rebirth in the NYC suburbs. Chris Dodd should be very wary.

The fact that VT has a Republican governor, who won every single county last year, actually illustrates my point rather than refuting it. Note: these are all local Republicans, winning in state-level or lower races. None of these Republicans would have to be part of R caucus in Washington or forced to take into account national party positions.  Generally, the way to succeed in the region is to project a political personality independent of the national party. Still, even the local parties aren't doing too well: in VT, RI and CT Republicans don't have enough legislative seats to sustain a veto. In fact, out of 14 legislative chambers in NY-NE Republicans control none and have a third of the seats or more, I believe, only  in 5.

Yes, so far there is no danger of marginalization in NY suburbs (and NJ is a different story all-together, it is Mid Atlantic).  However, when out of 51 House seats in NY-NE Republicans control 2, it's a sign of grave trouble.

Don't get me wrong: US party system is so stable that I won't give more than a 10% chance for a regional-party challenge to actually displace Republicans (though I am getting more and more convinced, attempts to do so will be becoming more frequent). However, unless the local Republican parties disassociate themselves from the national Republican politics in the eyes of their voters, they will be functioning under a severe handicap. Democracy needs, at least, two parties, and in NY-NE there are now 1.5.