Pennsylvania 2010 - The Official Thread

[Ronnie]

Lunar, why do you have such an ugly picture of Specter in your signature.

Do you have a pretty one I can use?

The one Lief gave was pretty good.

[Lunar]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/05/29/rendell-sestak-would-get_n_209285.html

Ed's being more of a bully than usual.  He's not used to being able to openly push Arlen along and he's enjoying it it seems

[Mr.Phips]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/05/29/rendell-sestak-would-get_n_209285.html

Ed's being more of a bully than usual.  He's not used to being able to openly push Arlen along and he's enjoying it it seems

Rendell is right. 

[Keystone Phil]

15-18%? Uh, first of all, I like that random selection and, secondly, that's just laughable.

Joe Sestak, a sitting Congressman who clearly has major people within the base excited, has millions available to him and will get millions more. He's not getting just below 20%. Also, please realize that western PA (including Dems) have never really gone crazy for Arlen. There are plenty of Dems that are even more wary now that Specter is suddenly one of them and they're not going to get behind Kortz (who probably won't stick with this/won't make the ballot).

I think it's also worth noting that some people just don't give a damn what Rendell has to say anymore. Sure, he's still the big deal in the state Democratic party but look at little signs - Hoeffel insisting that he will back Specter. Hoeffel is a total Rendell hack. We're talking about a guy who ran for Lt. Governor for two days, dropping out only because Rendell told him he had to...after suggesting that he get into the race in the first place!

No one is going to deny that Arlen will have all of the real big names behind him (unless Specter does something to really piss them off). Obama, Biden and Rendell working their ass off for you is the crowning achievment for any Democrat running in PA but it's not everything.

[Lunar]

Rendell could be about right [although more like 25-35%] if Specter starts playing game with Obama's agenda

Obama isn't going to help Specter out as much, for example, if Arlen's need to be a prick kicks in and he supports the cloture against Dawn Johnsen (which never even made sense in the first place).

[Keystone Phil]

Rendell could be about right [although more like 25-35%] if Specter starts playing game with Obama's agenda

If Arlen starts "playing game," Sestak will drop out. Running for the next few months does no harm to him.

[Badger]

Rendell could be about right [although more like 25-35%] if Specter starts playing game with Obama's agenda

If Arlen starts "playing game," Sestak will drop out. Running for the next few months does no harm to him.

[Eraserhead]

I saw Sestak on Hardball tonight. He really seems like he is running because he knows Specter is a phoney. He certainly has my full support. The more I see him, the more I like him.

[Lunar]

Rendell could be about right [although more like 25-35%] if Specter starts playing game with Obama's agenda

If Arlen starts "playing game," Sestak will drop out. Running for the next few months does no harm to him.

That is correct.  He could possibly raise more money now as a prospective candidate anyway than one who is guaranteed to be in the race -- some liberal powerplayers may want to give him extra to encourage him to jump in.

Also, timing is everything.  To generate the most buzz, Sestak has to wait for Specter to resort to his natural tendency to unnecessarily be a prick before he makes a high-profile entry.  It looks like Specter has enough sense on Sotomayor and could be gaining enough sense on EFCA to realize what the primary voters want...but the unions aren't interested in watering down any labor bills and Obama's influence will be muted if Specter works actively to water down his healthcare bill.  Not the easiest arguments to make to the public, but fairly effective ones to make to the machines.

[Keystone Phil]

Specter - 46%
Toomey - 37%

And the best news - 62% of Dems want Specter to get a primary challenge - http://grassrootspa.com/2009/06/02/susquehanna-poll-specter-46-toomey-37-62-of-dems-want-specter-to-face-primary/

[TeePee4Prez]

Specter - 46%
Toomey - 37%

And the best news - 62% of Dems want Specter to get a primary challenge - http://grassrootspa.com/2009/06/02/susquehanna-poll-specter-46-toomey-37-62-of-dems-want-specter-to-face-primary/

Don't get too excited although I'm not liking the NE/Lehigh Valley numbers.  Yes, I would vote for Arlen over Toomey, but I like Toomey for standing for something and have to give him credit where it's due.  I actually for some odd reason think Sestak would do better than Specter in that region, especially Northeast/Pocono region.  Sestak's numbers are not too shabby for a guy little known outside of the Southeast and i'm still one of them 62%.  I think he would be formidable statewide.     

[Keystone Phil]

I think he would be formidable statewide.     

Of course he would be. Now time for you to admit the same for Toomey.

[TeePee4Prez]

I think he would be formidable statewide.     

Of course he would be. Now time for you to admit the same for Toomey.

In an above average or great GOP year yes I agree.  In an average year or worse for the GOP, the deck's stacked against him.  I realize we're not VT, NY, or MA.  That said Sestak probably has a slight lead by default, but anything could happen.  A 2002 or 2004 type year ehh.... it would be a close race.  A lot of it will also depend on the Gubernatorial race.

[Keystone Phil]

A lot of it will also depend on the Gubernatorial race.

Which already isn't in your favor unless you run Wagner.

[© tweed]

Sestak sounds like a headcase from a few things I've read

[Keystone Phil]

Sestak sounds like a headcase from a few things I've read

How so? There have been reports that he can be a total asshole to staff but he always conducts himself as a very mild mannered, kind individual in public. I guess he could have an explosion some time during the campaign but he doesn't have a history of it outside of his office.

[© tweed]

Sestak sounds like a headcase from a few things I've read

How so? There have been reports that he can be a total asshole to staff but he always conducts himself as a very mild mannered, kind individual in public. I guess he could have an explosion some time during the campaign but he doesn't have a history of it outside of his office.

that his military background spills over into how he runs his office, requiring staff to work 16 hour days or something, and loads of them quit

[Keystone Phil]

Sestak sounds like a headcase from a few things I've read

How so? There have been reports that he can be a total asshole to staff but he always conducts himself as a very mild mannered, kind individual in public. I guess he could have an explosion some time during the campaign but he doesn't have a history of it outside of his office.

that his military background spills over into how he runs his office, requiring staff to work 16 hour days or something, and loads of them quit

Yeah, that's the same old stuff we've been hearing. I guess it could have an affect on the campaign internally.

[© tweed]

Sestak sounds like a headcase from a few things I've read

How so? There have been reports that he can be a total asshole to staff but he always conducts himself as a very mild mannered, kind individual in public. I guess he could have an explosion some time during the campaign but he doesn't have a history of it outside of his office.

that his military background spills over into how he runs his office, requiring staff to work 16 hour days or something, and loads of them quit

Yeah, that's the same old stuff we've been hearing. I guess it could have an affect on the campaign internally.

I'm not saying it would necessarily matter in any way, just that I dislike it

[Keystone Phil]

Great article - http://www.philly.com/inquirer/opinion/20090604_The_Elephant_in_the_Room__Brace_yourself_for_El_Specter.html


He also exposes some myths and points out a few things I didn't know (like Ridge and Specter apparently really disliking each other).

[TeePee4Prez]

Great article - http://www.philly.com/inquirer/opinion/20090604_The_Elephant_in_the_Room__Brace_yourself_for_El_Specter.html


He also exposes some myths and points out a few things I didn't know (like Ridge and Specter apparently really disliking each other).

He's probably right on a lot of this.  Further illustrates why I wish "El Specter" was still a Republican.

[Rob]

Great article

Surprisingly, I agree. Santorum may be insane, but he's no dummy. He makes some good points:

... the former governor was courted to run as the moderate Republican - even though his gubernatorial record was solidly conservative on every issue except abortion. (For many, "moderate" is simply code for "pro-choice.")

... the core of the Democratic Party - the 30 to 40 percent who show up on primary-election day - has never voted for Specter and doesn't much like Republicans.

For the next year, Sestak is going to remind Democrats all about Specter and his old Republican chums. I suspect you will be seeing Arlen with me and former President Bush on TV a time or two.

[Lunar]

Arlen,

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/23369.html

Vote against her, I dare you.  Even if you win your election, good luck on getting a prize subcommittee chairmanship.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Arlen,

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/23369.html

Vote against her, I dare you.  Even if you win your election, good luck on getting a prize subcommittee chairmanship.

Apparently he and Ben Nelson are on a contest about who is going to be the biggest prick.

But yeah, if he wants to guarantee the election of Senator Joe Sestak then by all means, let him vote against Sotomayor.

[Sam Spade]

Democrats, for some reason, don't get how Arlen Specter works.  I guess they'll figure it out over time (maybe), but to me it's been consistently clear.

Read the polls carefully, gentlemen.  They tell you all you need to know.