Pennsylvania 2010 - The Official Thread

[Lunar]

Rick: “I spoke with Arlen this morning and he explained his reasoning to me. I told him I was deeply disappointed that he felt he had to do it. It is a huge blow to the Republican's ability to moderate any of Obama's very liberal proposals. I can only hope that Arlen will be as independent as a Democrat as he has been as a Republican.”

[Keystone Phil]

Rick: “I spoke with Arlen this morning and he explained his reasoning to me. I told him I was deeply disappointed that he felt he had to do it. It is a huge blow to the Republican's ability to moderate any of Obama's very liberal proposals. I can only hope that Arlen will be as independent as a Democrat as he has been as a Republican.”

Right. Translation: "I knew this was coming. We've been expecting it for years. Hey! I can finally bash the guy in my columns!"

[Keystone Phil]

By the way, don't be surprised if Gerlach decides to abandon that Gubernatorial campaign...

[Torie]

By the way, don't be surprised if Gerlach decides to abandon that Gubernatorial campaign...

You think he might run for the Senate?  He might well be a stronger candidate than Toomey, don't you think?

[Lunar]

Shapiro is out:
http://politicspa.com/Shapiro.htm

Democrats promised Specter if he switched there'd be no establishment Democratic opponents:
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2009/04/28/1912564.aspx

[Lunar]

Q: “Some Democrats have approached you to switch, why not take them up on it?” SEN. ARLEN SPECTER (R-PA): How do you know that as a fact just because Rendell and Biden said that publicly? Q: “Sure, why not take the path of the least resistance.” SEN. ARLEN SPECTER (R-PA): “Because I am a Republican.” (“Arlen Specter Unfiltered,” Pennsylvania Avenue, 4/16/09)

SEN. ARLEN SPECTER (R-PA): “I’m staying a Republican because I think I have a more important role to play there.” (“Specter won’t rule out run as an Independent,” The Hill, 3/17/09)

SEN. ARLEN SPECTER (R-PA): ‘I think each of the 41 Republican senators, in a sense — and I don’t want to overstate this — is a national asset,’ he said, ‘because if one was gone, you’d only have 40, the Democrats would have 60, and they would control all of the mechanisms of government.’” (“Specter Won’t Rule Out Run As An Independent,” The Hill, 3/17/09)

SEN. ARLEN SPECTER (R-PA): “And because if we lose my seat they have 60 Democrats, they will pass card check, you will have the Obama tax increases, they will carry out his big spending plans. So the 41st Republican, whose name is Arlen Specter is vital to stopping tax increases, passage of card check, and the Obama big spending plans.” (“Arlen Specter Unfiltered,” Pennsylvania Avenue, 4/16/09)

SEN. ARLEN SPECTER (R-PA): “All that is standing between the Democrats and an avalanche are the 41 Republican Senators to to filibuster. If hes [Toomey] the nominee we lose the seat and you have card check, and you have tax increases and you have all of the big Obama spending programs.” (“Arlen Specter Unfiltered,” Pennsylvania Avenue, 4/16/09)

[Marokai Backbeat]

I'm watching his news conference on MSNBC. He's basically called the Republicans far-right going back to 2004. He also said that he "wouldn't allow" the Republican primary electorate to "stand in judgment" of him.

He also admitted to receiving promises from the President and other Democrats that he would be supported over other Dems if he switched.

[Torie]

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Arlan for the Senate! I may send him money.   

I do have trouble seeing just how Arlan would win a Dem primary however, given this, and given PA is such a big labor state.

Arlan said he is also not an automatic 60th vote for cloture. He seems to be implying that his voting patterns will not change. I don't believe that for a moment, at least not until the Dem primary is over.

We shall see.

[Keystone Phil]

By the way, don't be surprised if Gerlach decides to abandon that Gubernatorial campaign...

You think he might run for the Senate?  He might well be a stronger candidate than Toomey, don't you think?

In the General? Yes, he would be.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Arlan for the Senate! I may send him money.   

I do have trouble seeing just how Arlan would win a Dem primary however, given this, and given PA is such a big labor state.

Arlan said he is also not an automatic 60th vote for cloture. He seems to be implying that his voting patterns will not change. I don't believe that for a moment, at least not until the Dem primary is over.

We shall see.

He'll change his position on it. This move makes no sense otherwise (unless they just decide to table it until 2011).

I'm watching his news conference on MSNBC. He's basically called the Republicans far-right going back to 2004. He also said that he "wouldn't allow" the Republican primary electorate to "stand in judgment" of him.

Yeah, so far right yet he embraced Bush and Santorum when he needed them to save his ass.

Won't let us stand in judgment of him? LOL!  What does that mean? He was pandering to us just days ago!

[Lunar]

Specter told Obama that he's a "loyal Democrat" now and Obama said that Specter has his "full support"  -- clearly  Obama is highly interested in Specter's vote to advance the presidential agenda.  If Specter does, Obama might endorse Specter and do more...

[Lunar]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/glennthrush/0409/Obama_will_campaign_for_me_Specter_says.html

[Lunar]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/glennthrush/0409/Specter_tried_to_block_party_switching.html

[Lief 🗽]

Lunar you stole what was gonna be my signature.

[Lunar]

“Senator Reid is going to support Senator Specter in the primary,” - Reid's spokesman commenting on whether Specter's support on EFCA is a deal-breaker...

[Lunar]

Menendez has also promised to support Specter, and he's the guy in charge of recruiting Senate candidates.

[Lunar]

Bob Casey is on Maddow this evening and he gives what I think is the correct answer on EFCA [paraphrased] "I know he opposes the bill, but that legislation might change"

If I were an EFCA proponent, which I am not, I'd think hard about acquiring Specter's vote with less compromise by drastically changing the name of the bill  but only slightly changing the content, haha


Also Bob Casey is inhumanly boring

[Lunar]

SCHWARTZ IS OUT.

With Shapiro also out, that only leaves Torsella and Sestak and Murphy

[Mr. Morden]

I don't think card check can survive a filibuster in anything resembling its current form.  This head count from last month lists a lot of Dems who are undeclared/trying to avoid the issue:

http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/03/12/efca-counting/

Virtually all, if not all, of them will have to vote for cloture on it in order for it to survive.  Is that really going to happen?

[Lunar]

I don't think card check can survive a filibuster in anything resembling its current form.  This head count from last month lists a lot of Dems who are undeclared/trying to avoid the issue:

http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/03/12/efca-counting/

Virtually all, if not all, of them will have to vote for cloture on it in order for it to survive.  Is that really going to happen?

I've been keeping a less official tally, I didn't realize Burris committed now.

As long as you get liberal Senators who sponsored the bill in 2007 that refuse to say what their stance is on it now, it's not going to pass.  A lot of people aren't  going to give up business money until they're absolutely certain it'd pass... especially when they can milk both sides as they try to influence.

The votes don't exist "as is" -- EFCA that cannot pass in its most liberal form.  Perhaps Harkin & the other chief architects intentionally made the bill a little too liberal so that it could be compromised down and still acceptable?  I don't know, on the other hand, such a bill would more easily be demonized.

This is why Arlen's vote isn't that big of a deal to some of the powers that be... the bill he said he opposed is impossible legislatively.  However, in a labor-dominated state like Pennsylvania, it is a bit ridiculous to have a Democratic Senator that opposes EFCA... you can read ThePlumLine if you want to get some of labor's perspectives on Arlen [a blog with hella labor connections that overly-focuses on vote counts for EFCA].

All labor needs to do is threaten to withhold campaign support and Arlen would likely fold

[Lunar]

aaand a quick browse of a couple decent blogs gives this tip,confirming my ideas:
http://politics.theatlantic.com/2009/04/unions_mulling_specter_pressure_thru_dem_challenger.php

The same labor unions which hoped to dog Sen. Arlen Specter in his Republican Primary are now thinking about using the money -- about $100,000 -- to "keep Specter honest" when it comes to the principles of his new party, top Democrats said.  The money might be used to support a Democratic challenger, the Democrats said, speaking on the condition of anonymity.
Though Specter ruled out voting for cloture on the Employee Free Choice Act, he is now in a position to broker a compromise -- a "new EFCA."

[Lunar]

Phil would like this article, and Don wouldn't:
http://newmajority.com/ShowScroll.aspx?ID=1ddebf59-de31-406e-be99-85eaf771e1d3

I find it interesting.

[Keystone Phil]

SCHWARTZ IS OUT.

With Shapiro also out, that only leaves Torsella and Sestak and Murphy

Murphy is definitely out and Sestak won't do it.

[Lunar]

Oh I know Murphy has been out for a while.  Sestak is waffling though [well, he was waffling 20 minutes after Specter switched and wants to see how Specter votes... something the Democratic establishment secretly wants to encourage to ensure he votes liberally]

[Keystone Phil]

Just mentioning here, for the record, that Sestak is not refusing to rule out a run and Torsella says he's still in.

[Lunar]

As I've alluded to, I expect to see an underground Democratic effort to keep Arlen's votes liberal, specifically with the bluff of a serious, labor-backed primary challenge.

Everyone knows Arlen has no spine, he'll cave.