Pennsylvania 2010 - The Official Thread

[Lief 🗽]

Rowan and Phil, what exactly were your predictions in 2008 again?

[Keystone Phil]

Rowan and Phil, what exactly were your predictions in 2008 again?

Pretty accurate actually. I was off on Florida, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina and NE 2 (the final three were extremely close). That's it but that's not the point. He's gotten so silly now, admits that the numbers are pulled out of his ass and people like BRTD (and you, I guess) still defend it.

[Rowan]

Rowan and Phil, what exactly were your predictions in 2008 again?

I didn't make an actual prediction map on here(mostly because I didn't know how), but I had Obama winning. The only ones I thought McCain would win were IN, NC, and the CD in NE. Everything else I had right.

[Lief 🗽]

Rowan and Phil, what exactly were your predictions in 2008 again?

Pretty accurate actually. I was off on Florida, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina and NE 2 (the final three were extremely close). That's it but that's not the point. He's gotten so silly now, admits that the numbers are pulled out of his ass and people like BRTD (and you, I guess) still defend it.

What? I'm not defending him... I just called his numbers ridiculous. But a couple stupid predictions aren't that significant, when he gets most everything else right.

[Keystone Phil]

Rowan and Phil, what exactly were your predictions in 2008 again?

Pretty accurate actually. I was off on Florida, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina and NE 2 (the final three were extremely close). That's it but that's not the point. He's gotten so silly now, admits that the numbers are pulled out of his ass and people like BRTD (and you, I guess) still defend it.

What? I'm not defending him... I just called his numbers ridiculous.

So...your point? 

His numbers on this race are the subject and they're silly so don't mind us for saying the same. 

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/all-a1_5senate.6852607apr11,0,6543230.story

Wagner staying out is great news for the GOP.

Shapiro has been told by the DSCC to hold off on an announcement until Schwartz, Sestak and Murphy make up their minds (I'm guessing they'll tell him not to waste his time if any of them decide to run) even though he's criss-crossing the state. If the big three stay out, the DSCC will probably strongly back Shapiro.

Torsella brings in $600,000. I guess that's good but it's meaningless if someone out of the big three jumps in. Shapiro would probably easily outraise Torsella as well. He has to be hoping Schwartz gets in so he can get out of this race and run in PA 13. Then again, Schwartz in the race may force Shapiro out and he has always been seen as the heir to the PA 13 seat. Torsella really can't catch a break.

[Ronnie]

I'm beginning to think this race is a true tossup.  I may be wrong, though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Rowan and Phil, what exactly were your predictions in 2008 again?

Pretty accurate actually. I was off on Florida, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina and NE 2 (the final three were extremely close). That's it but that's not the point. He's gotten so silly now, admits that the numbers are pulled out of his ass and people like BRTD (and you, I guess) still defend it.

Uh, what? His numbers were based on complex mathematical formulas.

[Keystone Phil]

Rowan and Phil, what exactly were your predictions in 2008 again?

Pretty accurate actually. I was off on Florida, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina and NE 2 (the final three were extremely close). That's it but that's not the point. He's gotten so silly now, admits that the numbers are pulled out of his ass and people like BRTD (and you, I guess) still defend it.

Uh, what? His numbers were based on complex mathematical formulas.

I'm talking about his predictions for this race...

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/04/senate-rankings-april-2009-edition.html

Silver gives Toomey a 10% chance at the general (although he admits he's just pulling numbers out of his ass).  This sort of over-confidence could be costly

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well considering that Nate is the single best political analyst of all time I'm willing to buy any numbers he gives.

[Lunar]

This isn't really big news, since the NRSC is all but contractually obligated to back incumbents
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/senate/national-republicans-get-behin.html

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn released a letter today offering a full-throated endorsement of Sen. Arlen Specter in his coming primary against former congressman Pat Toomey, a decision driven by a concern that the challenger cannot win a general election in Pennsylvania.

"My job as head of the NRSC is to guide the GOP back to a majority in the Senate," wrote Cornyn in a letter to Pennsylvania Republicans. "I can't do that without Arlen Specter. With him as our nominee, I can target our campaign resources toward beating Democrats and growing the Senate Republican Conference."

The implication of those lines is clear: if Toomey is the Republican nominee next November, "campaign resources" may not flow from Washington to Pennsylvania.

[Lunar]

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=2530673&id=13038748407#/photo.php?pid=2529416&id=13038748407

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=2530673&id=13038748407#/photo.php?pid=2529416&id=13038748407

Can you say "desperate?"

Really, Arlen. Please do this stuff throughout the campaign. It's going to be too precious.

[Keystone Phil]

Haha, I love that Specter fan page. It's so nice to see one of my friends - a militant, feminist, Green party member - as a supporter of Specter. 

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.toomeyforsenate.com/

[Holmes]

Nooo, I hate websites where a video plays automatically without me pressing play. Bad on you, Toomey.

[Keystone Phil]

Nooo, I hate websites where a video plays automatically without me pressing play. Bad on you, Toomey.

Haha, I'm not a fan of that either but, overall, it's a good website (which I expected from him anyway).

[Keystone Phil]

Remember this?

http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/thegaggle/archive/2009/04/09/specter-will-not-run-as-an-independent.aspx

Dem strategist (who wishes to remain unnamed) said Specter was a "God damn co-sponsor!" of Card Check - http://www.newsweek.com/id/192464/page/2


Best comment from that article...

"I certainly don't have any comment about him," John McCain said with a huff when a NEWSWEEK reporter asked for his thoughts on Specter last week.

Well, Politics1 is reporting that there are sources claiming a McCain endorsement of Specter is coming soon. Now I know McCain isn't a fan of Toomey either but it's really silly for him to get involved here just a week or so after dissing Specter. If you don't like either of them just stay away. Oh well. It doesn't make a difference anyway.

[Lunar]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0409/Specter_raises_13M.html

1.3 million, 6.7 million CoH, pretty serious dough to spend in a primary

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0409/Specter_raises_13M.html

1.3 million, 6.7 million CoH, pretty serious dough to spend in a primary

Well, that's what you need when you have 70% of primary voters wanting someone other than yourself in your seat...and it still won't be enough...

[Lunar]

It's uphill steep all the way, but he's at least on track [early on].

[Keystone Phil]

It's uphill, but he's on track [early on].

It's beyond simply "uphill."

I know the numbers won't stay the same but this guy has pushed too many buttons this time. He can't buy enough support to win this thing. It's certainly impressive though.

Another note - I mentioned to a friend how PatToomey.org was taken awhile back. Now I don't know if he was joking or not but he said that someone working out of Specter's office (I won't name names) bought the domain. If this is true, we should be should seeing a parody/attack site soon...

[Lunar]

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/senate/041509toomey-time-1.html
- Just a generic analysis of the bickering.

"Without Senator Specter's seat in the Senate, which Mr. Toomey would certainly lose, there would no longer be 41 Republican Senators to filibuster and stop the Democrats from passing card check, raising taxes, and implementing President Obama's massive spending plans," said Nicholas [Specter's Campaign Manager].




OHRLY?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/senate/041509toomey-time-1.html
- Just a generic analysis of the bickering.

"Without Senator Specter's seat in the Senate, which Mr. Toomey would certainly lose, there would no longer be 41 Republican Senators to filibuster and stop the Democrats from passing card check, raising taxes, and implementing President Obama's massive spending plans," said Nicholas [Specter's Campaign Manager].




OHRLY?

LOL

Now that's funny!

[Keystone Phil]

I like that Specter is handing us the nomination. Really. There's campaign commercial number...what...six or seven for the Toomey campaign!