NY-20 Special Election

[Lunar]

Politico is noting that Murphy's ridiculously large extended family in the district (hundreds of registered Republicans in it that supported Murphy in this race) could be greater than his margin of victory.

[Keystone Phil]

Move over, Minnesota. We have a new never ending race.

[Purple State]

Will any side really be able to claim national momentum/mandate from a victory here?  I mean, they will, but will the media accept it?

The media will accept it because they just want the story. The question is will the country accept it. I highly doubt the family in suburban Virginia or rural Wyoming or urban Minnesota will really care about an intensely tight race in an obscure NY district.

[cinyc]

County           Change from R% 2006 (+ pro-Tedesco vs. Sweeney; - pro-Murphy vs. Gillibrand)
Columbia     2.01 Points
Delaware    -3.74 Points
Dutchess          3.58 Points
Essex          -1.75 Points
Greene           3.22 Points
Ostego           3.80 Points
Rensselaer   4.83 Points
Saratoga           6.53 Points
Warren          -1.92 Points
Washington   -2.88 Points

[Meeker]

Michael Steele has kept his job, so I'm happy.

[Tender Branson]

All in but the absentees, recount and lawsuits:

Murphy 77,344   (50.02%)
Tedesco 77,279 (49.98%)

Murphy +65

Yes, that must be it for now. Hopefully the absentee ballots will favor Murphy, but it's not a done deal.

There can't be more than 200 overseas military voters ...

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It's really hard to make any kind of political hay out of a race that was so ridiculously 50-50. Not that people won't try, but...

[Keystone Phil]

Michael Steele has kept his job, so I'm happy.

Haha, exactly what I was thinking.

[cinyc]

CBS 6 Albany has it:
615 of 615 precincts reporting   100%
    Scott Murphy (D/I/WF)    77,344   50%
    Jim Tedisco (R/C)    77,285   50%

Murphy +59
I don't know what the discrepancy is.

FWIW, the Saratogan agrees with my count.

[Eraserhead]

lolz recountcity

[Meeker]

What a fun evening. And what a fun month ahead we have!

[Sam Spade]

65 votes?

Yes, this race has just started.

[cinyc]

Not getting the Independence line cost Tedisco dearly.

[cinyc]

Without the absentees and excluding blank votes, total votes cast was 49.6% of the 2008 tally, 65.6% of the 2006 tally and 54.2% of the 2004 tally (excluding votes for the the minor party candidate, which I didn't tally).  Pretty good turnout for a special election if it's 65.6% of the off-year tally before absentees.

[Eraserhead]

Without the absentees and excluding blank votes, total votes cast was 49.6% of the 2008 tally, 65.6% of the 2006 tally and 54.2% of the 2004 tally (excluding votes for the the minor party candidate, which I didn't tally).  Pretty good turnout for a special election if it's 65.6% of the off-year tally before absentees.

Yeah, that's great.

[Ronnie]

HAHAHAHAHA

Before I went on the computer, I was thinking to myself how close this race could possibly be.

[Torie]

All in but the absentees, recount and lawsuits:

Murphy 77,344   (50.02%)
Tedesco 77,279 (49.98%)

Murphy +65

Yes, that must be it for now. Hopefully the absentee ballots will favor Murphy, but it's not a done deal.

There can't be more than 200 overseas military voters ...

Why are the absentees expected to favor Murphy?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

You know that if Tedisco was leading by 65 votes, the media would just declare it for him now.

[Sam Spade]

All in but the absentees, recount and lawsuits:

Murphy 77,344   (50.02%)
Tedesco 77,279 (49.98%)

Murphy +65

Yes, that must be it for now. Hopefully the absentee ballots will favor Murphy, but it's not a done deal.

There can't be more than 200 overseas military voters ...

Why are the absentees expected to favor Murphy?

The NYGOP doesn't think so, but that's expected.  I've been asking what's the history here, but I seem to not be getting far.

[SamInTheSouth]

All in but the absentees, recount and lawsuits:

Murphy 77,344   (50.02%)
Tedesco 77,279 (49.98%)

Murphy +65

Yes, that must be it for now. Hopefully the absentee ballots will favor Murphy, but it's not a done deal.

There can't be more than 200 overseas military voters ...

Why are the absentees expected to favor Murphy?

The NYGOP doesn't think so, but that's expected.  I've been asking what's the history here, but I seem to not be getting far.

65 votes is too large a deficit to overcome with only absentee ballots left in a special election.  Tedisco blew it.

[Lunar]

I finally figured out the 6k-10k number thingy.

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[cinyc]

You know that if Tedisco was leading by 65 votes, the media would just declare it for him now.

Nonsense.  It may be 59 votes, if you believe the CBS 6 Albany and WNYT Albany counts.

Why are the absentees expected to favor Murphy?

We don't know, Torie.  Anyone who claims they do is lying.  If the absentees more or less follow the actual vote and they're disproportionately from Greene or Saratoga counties, they probably favor Tedisco.  If they're disproportionately from Columbia, Essex, Warren or Washington counties, they probably favor Murphy.  

Bizarrely, neighboring Delaware and Greene Counties went different ways -  Murphy outperformed 2006 Gillibrand  in Delaware County but lagged in Greene.   Delaware County is in the Binghamton DMA while Greene is in the Albany DMA.  Maybe that had something to do with it?

[justfollowingtheelections]

Lets hope this doesn't turn into another Minnesota.

[SamInTheSouth]

I finally figured out the 6k-10k number thingy.

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Oh, 6,000 ballots?  That's different. Tedisco could easily over come the 65 vote deficit then and win the race.  I wasn't expecting more than a few hundred absentees.

[Sam Spade]

You know that if Tedisco was leading by 65 votes, the media would just declare it for him now.

Nonsense.  It may be 59 votes, if you believe the CBS 6 Albany and WNYT Albany counts.

Why are the absentees expected to favor Murphy?

We don't know, Torie.  Anyone who claims they do is lying.  If the absentees more or less follow the actual vote and they're disproportionately from Greene or Saratoga counties, they probably favor Tedisco.  If they're disproportionately from Columbia, Essex, Warren or Washington counties, they probably favor Murphy.  

Bizarrely, Delaware and Greene Counties went different ways -  Murphy outperformed 2006 Gillibrand  in Delaware County but lagged in Greene.   Delaware County is in the Binghamton DMA while Greene is in the Albany DMA.  Maybe that had something to do with it?

Greene is in Tedisco's AD, I believe.

If you notice, Tedisco overperformed in his AD and underperformed worse the further you get away.  Murphy underperformed in Warren for some reason (home county).