NY-20 Special Election
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Author Topic: NY-20 Special Election  (Read 179194 times)
Lunar
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« Reply #550 on: March 31, 2009, 09:21:10 PM »
Quote from: VP Meeker on March 31, 2009, 09:20:18 PM
I suspect we'll lose this in absentees. But at least it's not over yet.

it's not impossible that we could lose it in the absentees but win it in the recount, and then wait six months before Murphy can take his seat Smiley
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #551 on: March 31, 2009, 09:21:18 PM »
I'm not seeing how we don't get a recount but hopefully Murphy will go into it with a lead of some sort.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #552 on: March 31, 2009, 09:21:25 PM »
My calculations have it at 76,956 - 76,907 for Murphy, using the AP totals and calculating the difference between their results for Saratoga and the county results (which are all in).

Edit: which they've since updated. Never mind.
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Alcon
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« Reply #553 on: March 31, 2009, 09:22:09 PM »
Quote from: JohnnyLongtorso on March 31, 2009, 09:21:25 PM
My calculations have it at 76,956 - 76,907 for Murphy, using the AP totals and calculating the difference between their results for Saratoga and the county results (which are all in).


They are behind in Washington.  I'm 99.9% sure it's 77,208-77,127 Murphy.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #554 on: March 31, 2009, 09:22:32 PM »
Quote from: Lunar on March 31, 2009, 09:21:10 PM
Quote from: VP Meeker on March 31, 2009, 09:20:18 PM
I suspect we'll lose this in absentees. But at least it's not over yet.

it's not impossible that we could lose it in the absentees but win it in the recount, and then wait six months before Murphy can take his seat Smiley

I'd rather have nobody in there than a Republican.
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RI
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« Reply #555 on: March 31, 2009, 09:23:16 PM »
Quote from: Alcon on March 31, 2009, 09:22:09 PM
Quote from: JohnnyLongtorso on March 31, 2009, 09:21:25 PM
My calculations have it at 76,956 - 76,907 for Murphy, using the AP totals and calculating the difference between their results for Saratoga and the county results (which are all in).


They are behind in Washington.  I'm 99.9% sure it's 77,208-77,127 Murphy.

That is what the Saratogian has.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #556 on: March 31, 2009, 09:24:01 PM »
Has there been a special House election (barring at-large seats, where there may be more people than usual) with this high turnout before? 150,000+ votes is pretty impressive, considering 2006's general election turnout was about 220,000.
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Meeker
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« Reply #557 on: March 31, 2009, 09:24:18 PM »
This is kind of silly because whoever wins will be gone in 2012.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #558 on: March 31, 2009, 09:24:30 PM »
Quote from: Mr.Phips on March 31, 2009, 09:19:15 PM
Quote from: Sam Spade on March 31, 2009, 09:16:48 PM
So, how do absentees usually vote around these parts?

Im from this area and have had to deal with many close local elections here.  In Saratoga county at least, absentees seem to closely mirror the actual vote.  

So, with this close of a vote, it'll likely depend on how many absentees come from each county.  Fair enough.
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Lunar
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« Reply #559 on: March 31, 2009, 09:24:51 PM »
this is a lot closer than I expected.  Not surprising for the second most expensive special election in history, but still impressive.  Some of the counties had somewhat atypical results.
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cinyc
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« Reply #560 on: March 31, 2009, 09:25:01 PM »
Quote from: Senator Realisticidealist on March 31, 2009, 09:23:16 PM
Quote from: Alcon on March 31, 2009, 09:22:09 PM
Quote from: JohnnyLongtorso on March 31, 2009, 09:21:25 PM
My calculations have it at 76,956 - 76,907 for Murphy, using the AP totals and calculating the difference between their results for Saratoga and the county results (which are all in).


They are behind in Washington.  I'm 99.9% sure it's 77,208-77,127 Murphy.

That is what the Saratogian has.

And what I have based on the County BOE websites (except for the crapy Columbia, Delaware and  Ostego ones which don't have results up, where I used the Saratogan count).
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Alcon
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« Reply #561 on: March 31, 2009, 09:25:23 PM »
While we're at it:  This is a great example of why press turnout stories always suck.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #562 on: March 31, 2009, 09:26:09 PM »
So there is still one precinct remaining, right?
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Alcon
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« Reply #563 on: March 31, 2009, 09:26:20 PM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on March 31, 2009, 09:26:09 PM
So there is still one precinct remaining, right?

Yep.  Very possible it may flip the race back over.
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Meeker
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« Reply #564 on: March 31, 2009, 09:27:01 PM »

lol AP
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cinyc
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« Reply #565 on: March 31, 2009, 09:27:32 PM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on March 31, 2009, 09:26:09 PM
So there is still one precinct remaining, right?

Yes.  Somewhere in Saratoga County.  Exactly where may matter.  Some had as many as 767 voters in 2006.  And some are more Republican than others.   
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Lunar
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« Reply #566 on: March 31, 2009, 09:27:45 PM »
I've been seeing different numbers about the absentee ballots.  538 claims there's 6,000 while a Republican official told Scorecard that there's 10k.

That makes a big difference.
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Boris
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« Reply #567 on: March 31, 2009, 09:28:28 PM »
the suspense
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Meeker
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« Reply #568 on: March 31, 2009, 09:28:50 PM »
SSP has a 6,000 number as well, but they likely got it from 538
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Lunar
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« Reply #569 on: March 31, 2009, 09:30:09 PM »
Will any side really be able to claim national momentum/mandate from a victory here?  I mean, they will, but will the media accept it?
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Zarn
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« Reply #570 on: March 31, 2009, 09:30:21 PM »
Lunar, that's very interesting.

I think just think the percentage between military and civilian votes in these absentees is equally important.
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Alcon
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« Reply #571 on: March 31, 2009, 09:30:39 PM »
Maybe one includes provisional ballots and the other doesn't.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #572 on: March 31, 2009, 09:31:13 PM »
Whether its 6K or 10K, with the results the way they are, you're basically starting from 0 anyways.
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cinyc
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« Reply #573 on: March 31, 2009, 09:34:07 PM »
All in but the absentees, recount and lawsuits:

Murphy 77,344   (50.02%)
Tedesco 77,279 (49.98%)

Murphy +65
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #574 on: March 31, 2009, 09:34:15 PM »
I was gonna try and start a report tonight. I guess that won't be happening now.
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