NY-20 Special Election
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Author Topic: NY-20 Special Election  (Read 179204 times)
Ronnie
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« Reply #175 on: March 14, 2009, 01:05:09 AM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on March 14, 2009, 12:56:46 AM
Remember when somebody came on here and said that Tedisco was going to win with about 67% of the vote? Too funny.

I expect him to win with 55% tops now.  He might even lose.
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Lunar
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« Reply #176 on: March 14, 2009, 01:15:30 AM »
mmm.  Tedisco is having troubles, or so he complains, with the national party.  I'd give him a 60/40 chance of winning but I certainly wouldn't put money on it.   He's certainly a luckluster candidate, he's being attacked by local Albany newspapers for refusing to take a stand on the stimulus, and he's "having" (?) conflicts with his own advertising arm of the RNC.  See above about that.

If this were not a special election I'd put this as lean Democrat.  As of now, it's lean Republican for turnout reasons.  If Murphy can outspend him, keep Gillibrand front and center, and keep trapping Tedisco into an undefendable policy corner, he's won.
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Edu
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« Reply #177 on: March 14, 2009, 01:40:59 AM »
Quote from: Mr.Phips on February 05, 2009, 02:23:32 PM
Quote from: Eraserhead on February 05, 2009, 11:54:17 AM
I'm now one of Murphy's 38 supporters on facebook. lol.

And Tedisco has around 400.  I think Tedisco will probably get close to 70% of the vote in the special election.  Is this going to be a good narrative for Democrats going into 2010?

Lol
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #178 on: March 14, 2009, 03:26:21 AM »
Quote from: Edu on March 14, 2009, 01:40:59 AM
Quote from: Mr.Phips on February 05, 2009, 02:23:32 PM
Quote from: Eraserhead on February 05, 2009, 11:54:17 AM
I'm now one of Murphy's 38 supporters on facebook. lol.

And Tedisco has around 400.  I think Tedisco will probably get close to 70% of the vote in the special election.  Is this going to be a good narrative for Democrats going into 2010?

Lol

This is why we don't base election predictions on early facebook support, kids.
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Holmes
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« Reply #179 on: March 14, 2009, 09:27:39 AM »
I know, but to do it now when Murphy's surging(ok I say surging, but really there were only like 3 polls so it's more like people are starting to know him) and with two and a half weeks to go when more people are paying attention, it's a good time to play the Gillibrand card. Smiley
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Holmes
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« Reply #180 on: March 16, 2009, 05:03:57 PM »
HE FINALLY ADMITS IT!
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #181 on: March 16, 2009, 05:04:34 PM »

Does this really hurt in that district?
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Holmes
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« Reply #182 on: March 16, 2009, 05:06:17 PM »
Maybe. If Murphy's campaign plays their cards correctly.
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Verily
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« Reply #183 on: March 16, 2009, 05:06:59 PM »
« Edited: March 16, 2009, 05:09:10 PM by Verily »

Probably. This is not an economically conservative district. Technically there are some suburbs, but they're the most Democratic parts (save Essex County).

How much is a completely different question. Probably not much.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #184 on: March 16, 2009, 05:59:32 PM »

Not exactly helpful.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #185 on: March 16, 2009, 08:07:31 PM »

His reluctance to admit it for a very long time, when everyone knew all Republicans voted against it, indicate that he thought it would.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #186 on: March 16, 2009, 08:27:04 PM »
Well, this is BlueDogDem's district so I know a lot about it Smiley

I'm still banking on the GOP here.  I know I'm new this conversation, but this district is from like Glens Falls to upper Essex correct?
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Smash255
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« Reply #187 on: March 16, 2009, 08:31:48 PM »
Quote from: Sen. DownWithTheLeft on March 16, 2009, 08:27:04 PM
Well, this is BlueDogDem's district so I know a lot about it Smiley

I'm still banking on the GOP here.  I know I'm new this conversation, but this district is from like Glens Falls to upper Essex correct?
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #188 on: March 16, 2009, 08:43:47 PM »
Huh, maybe this isn't so good for Republicans.  I thought the hickville I go on vacation (Ticonderoga) was typical not atypical of the district.  Glens Falls is kind of like a Jersey suburb/Vermont city
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Holmes
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« Reply #189 on: March 17, 2009, 09:47:44 AM »
And finally with his poll numbers sinking...

Damn liberal local upstate media.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #190 on: March 17, 2009, 11:07:39 AM »
This race feels more and more like IL-14 or MS-3 with every passing day, even if I still wouldn't bet on the outcome.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
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« Reply #191 on: March 17, 2009, 12:12:44 PM »

It voted for Obama, so yes.
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Holmes
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« Reply #192 on: March 17, 2009, 02:25:27 PM »
Like the President says, "In these difficult times, we're not Republicans or Democrats, we're Americans." And that's the team I'm on.

Heh.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #193 on: March 17, 2009, 04:10:20 PM »

Now it's time for the Murphy/Obama ad I proposed. Wink
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Brittain33
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« Reply #194 on: March 17, 2009, 06:17:07 PM »
Phone conversation between a very, very angry Republican PAC contact and a reporter in Albany.

http://blogs.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/12541/natl-gop-trust-pac-voices-its-discontent
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Holmes
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« Reply #195 on: March 17, 2009, 06:53:50 PM »
Wow, the GOP Trust Quack is angry that its stupid ad was taken off the air? Roll Eyes...

I'm wondering if Tedisco's new "positive" campaign is code for "hide the fact that I'm a Republican" campaign.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #196 on: March 17, 2009, 07:19:33 PM »
Quote from: Sen. DownWithTheLeft on March 16, 2009, 08:27:04 PM
Well, this is BlueDogDem's district so I know a lot about it Smiley

Ticonderoga and the state of Vermont are not in NY-20.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #197 on: March 18, 2009, 06:15:50 AM »
Wow, Tedisco's running scared.

This campaign makes you almost forget that the seat is actually Dem-held atm... of course, once the results are in, we'll be reminded of it anyhow. Grin
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Holmes
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« Reply #198 on: March 18, 2009, 07:48:24 AM »

Sad
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Lunar
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« Reply #199 on: March 18, 2009, 09:53:59 AM »
You didn't put the “Like the president said," in quotes and I got confuzed
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