NY-20 Special Election

[Holmes]

Ah, you shouldn't worry. When the debates happen and more coverage happens as the election day gets closer, there'll be less "no opinion"s of Murphy.

[Eraserhead]

I saw a Tedisco ad today. It wasn't bad either. That's the first ad that I've seen so far from either of them (on televsion).

[Lunar]

Check out this attack ad with 48 Youtube views:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2w1NcOdqVps&feature=channel_page
"Murphy is threatening our future!"

Was this the ad you saw?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oA8bCReY_r8&feature=channel_page

He seems to be trying really hard to preempt the "outside the district" carpetbagging argument that if Murphy doesn't make, some newspapers will.  "One of Us" seems like an odd slogan for a career politician (another preemption?) and kind 0f 1984ish.

[Eraserhead]

No, that wasn't it. It dealt with how he had worked as a specal education teacher before getting involved in politics and such. It was more of a personal ad.

[Holmes]

Was this the ad you saw?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oA8bCReY_r8&feature=channel_page

He's from a working family but... not from NY-20.

[Sam Spade]

Independence party nod means more than you might think.

Still no change from my prior call, however.

[Lunar]

Independence party nod means more than you might think.

Still no change from my prior call, however.

I agree 100%.  Tedisco should still be favored to win, but Murphy is doing a damn good job thus far as the underdog.  He's putting out better ads, acting more personable, winning better endorsements, and, I think, spending more money.

I think you'd have to be foolish or particularly to call this race for anyone else besides Tedisco, at this particular point.  Although what really matters in these elections is organization, and that's something rather invisible to the internet observer. 

But yeah, Murphy has been a surprisingly solid candidate and Tedisco a rather anemic one.  I hope that after Tedisco wins (the as-of-now likely scenario) his district gets swallowed by the surrounding districts.  He reminds me of Bob Casey in his personality and whenever he talks in his own campaign videos it makes me want to slaughter a goat because of how pathetic he sounds.

[Holmes]

The Libertarian candidate has twice the needed signatures to be on the ballot.

The DCCC is airing ads finally. I hope they air pro-Murphy ads too, though...

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http://www.thealbanyproject.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=D55203BE3322A2799100614D89287AB9?diaryId=5943

[Lunar]

That's a good ad, targeted to the voter who feels obligated to vote in every election but isn't sure who he wants to vote for yet.

They need to get Gillibrand in some ads asap too

[Holmes]

Everyone and their mom is now bringing up a poll that has Tedisco at 44 and Murphy at 37. Except it was done around February 25. I'd like more recent polls if there are gonna be any.

[Sam Spade]

Everyone and their mom is now bringing up a poll that has Tedisco at 44 and Murphy at 37. Except it was done around February 25. I'd like more recent polls if there are gonna be any.

You mean everyone and their mom *who reads Daily Kos and MyDD*...

Anyway, the poll was commissioned by the DCCC and done by Benenson Strategy Group.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0309/19881.html

[Holmes]

http://www.scribd.com/doc/13205053/CD20-31109-Crosstabs

Sundwall not making much of a dent in this one.

[Brittain33]

Siena is rapidly evolving from a crap uni poll to the gold standard of New York polling. We'll need to see a poll showing Murphy leading for them to cement their reputation, though.

[Lunar]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYnmbmEsPSA&eurl

ugh.  That one seems a bit below-the-belt although not really.  He creates businesses in NY-20 but also once helped start a project in India and now he's the Man?

[Eraserhead]

There are a lot of ads on the air from both sides now. You can sort of sense that the momentum might be changing just a wee bit.

[Meeker]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYnmbmEsPSA&eurl

ugh.  That one seems a bit below-the-belt although not really.  He creates businesses in NY-20 but also once helped start a project in India and now he's the Man?

The NRCC never disappoints in their xenophobia-baiting.

[Holmes]

Tedisco's taking control of his campaign and isn't accepting help from the RNC...

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http://www.poststar.com/articles/2009/03/12/news/local/doc49b9890a81291975220376.txt

He wants significant middle class tax cuts, which was in the stimulus, but he won't say whether he supports it or not!

[Lunar]

Finally, Scott manages to get Kirsten to cut an ad for him:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-rMv4oBY70&eurl

[Holmes]

Finally, Scott manages to get Kirsten to cut an ad for him:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-rMv4oBY70&eurl

Oooh, it's awn now!!

[Holmes]

Tedisco got grilled on Dicker's radio show. I hope his show is popular.

[Lunar]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYnmbmEsPSA&eurl

ugh.  That one seems a bit below-the-belt although not really.  He creates businesses in NY-20 but also once helped start a project in India and now he's the Man?

The NRCC never disappoints in their xenophobia-baiting.

Isn't the GOP supposed to be more free-trade anyway?  They're saying Murphy should be "ashamed" for being the partner or whatever in a single internet company overseas?  That commercial looked like something the AFL-CIO or something would run against a Republican in the Rustbelt.

[Ronnie]

Finally, Scott manages to get Kirsten to cut an ad for him:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-rMv4oBY70&eurl

Oooh, it's awn now!!

lol this was always going to happen.

[Verily]

Finally, Scott manages to get Kirsten to cut an ad for him:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-rMv4oBY70&eurl

Oooh, it's awn now!!

lol this was always going to happen.

Not if you were one of the people commenting on this thread a month ago. Whether it is a significant development is something else, of course.

[Lunar]

Tedisco is "demanding" that the national committee stops running negative ads against his opponent, like the xenophobic one above, and the national Republicans announced that they're going to ignore this request, saying it's their duty.  The indication is the Tedisco is nervous about recent poll results which say that people watching ads against Murphy come away with a far more negative opinion of Tedisco than those watching negative ads against Teisco.

Reminds me of Coleman "freezing" his negative ads.

[Eraserhead]

Remember when somebody came on here and said that Tedisco was going to win with about 67% of the vote? Too funny.