The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Yelnoc]

When was the last time North Carolina was polled?

[Yelnoc]

When was the last time North Carolina was polled?

within the last week I think, on the maps the numbers (on mine) and the letters (on pbrower2a's) represent the month the last poll was in.

Oh, thanks.

[Yelnoc]

Am I correct to believe that all of the "white" states are "swing" states?

[Yelnoc]

Trying to avoid any partisan bias/hackishness

This model applies to absolutely nobody as we are 2 years out from election night 2012.

*Scratches head*

Oregon is a swing state?

[Yelnoc]

fas·cist   /ˈfæʃɪst/ 
–noun
1. a person who believes in or sympathizes with fascism.
2. ( often initial capital letter ) a member of a fascist movement or party.
3. a person who is dictatorial or has extreme right-wing views.
–adjective
4. Also, fa·scis·tic  /fəˈʃɪstɪk/  Show Spelled[fuh-shis-tik]  Show IPA. of or like fascism or fascists.

fas·cism   /ˈfæʃɪzəm/   
–noun
1. ( sometimes initial capital letter ) a governmental system led by a dictator having complete power, forcibly suppressing opposition and criticism, regimenting all industry, commerce, etc., and emphasizing an aggressive nationalism and often racism.
2. ( sometimes initial capital letter ) the philosophy, principles, or methods of fascism.
3. ( initial capital letter ) a fascist movement, esp. the one established by Mussolini in Italy 1922–43

[Yelnoc]

so·cial·ist   /ˈsoʊʃəlɪst/   
–noun
1. an advocate or supporter of socialism.
2. a member of the U.S. Socialist party.

so·cial·ism   /ˈsoʊʃəˌlɪzəm/   
–noun
1. a theory or system of social organization that advocates the vesting of the ownership and control of the means of production and distribution, of capital, land, etc., in the community as a whole.
2. procedure or practice in accordance with this theory.
3. (in Marxist theory) the stage following capitalism in the transition of a society to communism, characterized by the imperfect implementation of collectivist principles.

[Yelnoc]

-snip-

There are two problems with this. 
1) Obama's low approval rating in liberal states like Oregon in Maine can be partially attributed to liberals who are disatisfied with his administration but would not vote for a Republican (though might vote for an independent or Green if a serious one appeared in protest).
2) The GOP may end up shooting themselves in the foot and nominating someone like Palin.

Still, those are good maps.

[Yelnoc]

Brower, if you think Georgia will go Democratic in 2012 you're delusional.

[Yelnoc]

Brower, if you think Georgia will go Democratic in 2012 you're delusional.

If he successfully extricates the Armed Forces from Afghanistan and Iraq by 2012 he wins Georgia. Much else, too.

I did suggest that 47% approval in Georgia is hard to believe.

Maybe, but then again maybe Petraeus is exonerated while Obama is pretty much discredited.  Obamaphobia is high amongst the suburbs and an epedimic in the sticks which is more than enough to counteract the votes of intellectuals, blacks, urban dwellers, and other assorted democratic voters.

I'm inclined to think this poll is a blip.

[Yelnoc]

A prediction at this point it's kind of hard to do.... but I'm going to guess it ends up kind of like this.  

Obama 323 - 52%
Challenger 215 - 47%

Basically, the conservatives that went with him in 2008 are pushed away by now, costing him NC and IN.  He loses the big margins in the West and 9 EVs in the historically very anti-incumbant Colorado.  Other than that the economy SEEMS to be heading in the right direction and Obama is able to highlight the things he has been able to accomplish.  Not the victory he enjoyed in 2008, but since generally the country seems to be making progress we stick with him.  

(Not only that, but I'm predicting the GOP winds up with a candidate and campaign that's WAAAAAAAY too much to the right of the country as a whole)

That is certainly possible, but unless the GOP proves that they are completely inept at picking competent candidates then they should be able to take back Virginia and Florida at least.  And the fact that this election will most likely hinge on the economy makes it very hard to predict; after all, how many people predicted the '08 crash?

[Yelnoc]

So, you guys are Genies.

I don't remember any people in the news talking about our shaky economy in 2006.  But then I could be wrong.

[Yelnoc]

Somehow I don't see the Republicans winning Pennsylvania and losing Georgia.

[Yelnoc]

Without the added points for incumbent advantage, this would be the map in 2012 by his approval ratings alone.

[Yelnoc]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +2.

Disapprove 51%, -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +1.

If there there are out of range pro-Obama numbers tomorrow, there is probably a solid shift toward Obama.

If this happens, any idea why?

His address to the nation on the withdraw from Iraq happens tonight. Which is probably going to change this numbers for the better.

Hey Scifi.

And I tend to agree nationally, but the change in state-by-state results will be interesting.

[Yelnoc]

I may attempt to purchase an apartment in Canada if things keep going this way.

So if GOPer's want to take back the White House in 2012, Obama will have to be as big of a failure as Carter, and they'll also have to find another Reagan.

Obama will be.

And the GOP has Mitt Romney.

Nuff said.

Ronald Reagan and Mitt Romney are really incomparable.

[Yelnoc]

SUSA  Georgia: 35-61

http://www.13wmaz.com/news/breaking/story.aspx?storyid=90254&catid=4

(It's kind of buried in the lower section with a type, and SUSA doesn't yet have it on their site)

The most depressing part about this poll? Deal leads by 11.

But I don't like Barnes Either.

Write-in: Mr. Potato Head

[Yelnoc]

SUSA  Georgia: 35-61

http://www.13wmaz.com/news/breaking/story.aspx?storyid=90254&catid=4

(It's kind of buried in the lower section with a type, and SUSA doesn't yet have it on their site)

The most depressing part about this poll? Deal leads by 11.

But I don't like Barnes Either.

Write-in: Mr. Potato Head

Would you have preferred Handel?

Yes.  She isn't a crook.

[Yelnoc]

NIce maps Odysseus.  One quibble though.  I would change "Romney" to "Republican" as we have no idea who the nominee will be in 2012.

[Yelnoc]

Obama approval rating September 2010 (gallup):

45% Approve

47% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 45/39 (September 1978)

Reagan: 42/48 (September 1982)

Bush I: 72/18 (September 1990)

Clinton: 42/52 (September 1994)

Bush II: 67/28 (September 2002)

Interesting.

[Yelnoc]

Are we no longer tracking state polling here?

I am.  pbrower2a just gave up because he doesn't like the results.

Didn't he say the source for his polls was now charging money, so he had to quit?

[Yelnoc]

Are we no longer tracking state polling here?

I am.  pbrower2a just gave up because he doesn't like the results.

Didn't he say the source for his polls was now charging money, so he had to quit?

     Yes, Rasmussen now only releases state-by-state approval polls to its premium members.

That sucks.  I wonder who would pay just for poll data (unless that was related to your job)?

[Yelnoc]

Are we no longer tracking state polling here?

I am.  pbrower2a just gave up because he doesn't like the results.

Didn't he say the source for his polls was now charging money, so he had to quit?

     Yes, Rasmussen now only releases state-by-state approval polls to its premium members.

There are plenty of approval polls coming out that are not Rasmussen.  They just don't show the results he wants.

IMO, Rasmussen is one of the most reputable polling sources there is.  What are you using?

[Yelnoc]

Agreed.  "Anybody but Obama" sounds a lot more appealing then "Romney" "Palin" "Gingrich" or any other names that pollsters are throwing out there.

[Yelnoc]

Democrats pressing The Obumbler ot to run in 202

wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=220905

Why would you post that in multiple threads?

[Yelnoc]

Obama Average Approval Rating for all of 2010 (Gallup)

47% Approve

46% Disapprove

Trends for comparison

Carter 46/37 (1978)

Reagan 42/46 (1982)

Bush I 66/23 (1990)

Clinton 46/45 (1994)

Bush II 72/22 (2002)

Interesting how close Obama is to Clinton's approvals at the time.