The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 20, 2021, 05:06:33 AM

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 252 253 254 255 256 [257] 258 259 260 261 262 ... 410
Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1086352 times)
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,904
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6400 on: October 02, 2010, 11:12:59 AM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +2.

Disapprove 53%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45%, -1.

Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 42,581
Dominica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6401 on: October 02, 2010, 12:47:21 PM »



Spade's favorite map creation - this is one of the more important maps I have that says a lot of 2010 (and possibly beyond).  It also says a lot about the Obama power base.

I think you've out Sam Spade'd yourself on this one.
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,558


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6402 on: October 02, 2010, 01:27:54 PM »



Spade's favorite map creation - this is one of the more important maps I have that says a lot of 2010 (and possibly beyond).  It also says a lot about the Obama power base.

I think you've out Sam Spade'd yourself on this one.

Smiley 

The Key:

1st Part:  Rasmussen 3-poll average of approvals in each state measured against Rasmussen-derived national average from the 3-poll average state polls (i.e. national average is 47-52, Ohio 3-poll average is 46-53, so R+2)

MEASURED AGAINST

2nd Part:  2004 Bush-Kerry, 2008 McCain-Obama, 2004-2008 Average.
a) If more Republican than all three, then Solid Blue. (i.e. Michigan = D+1, with 2004 = D+6, 2008 = D+9, Average = D+7)
b) If more Republican than 2004-2008 Average, but less Republican than 2004 or 2008, then Light Blue.  (i.e. Nevada = D+1, with 2004 = D+1, 2008 = D+5, Average = D+3)
c) If equal to 2004-2008 Average = Green (i.e. Ohio = R+2, 2004/2008 Average = R+2)
d) If more Democratic than 2004-2008 Average, but less Republican than 2004 or 2008, then Light Red. (i.e. Oregon = D+9, with 2004 = D+7, 2008 = D+10, Average = D+7)
e) If more Democratic than all three, then Solid Red. (i.e. California = D+18, with 2004 = D+13, 2008 = D+17, Average = D+15)
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,904
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6403 on: October 03, 2010, 09:23:34 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +1.

Disapprove 52%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, -1.


Definite improvement in Obama's numbers.  Well off the lows.
Logged
Oakvale
oakvale
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,733
Ireland, Republic of
Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6404 on: October 03, 2010, 09:32:14 AM »

I'd like to pop into this thread to commend J.J. on being one of the few people reporting the numbers without being a hack.

*leaves*
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,941
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6405 on: October 03, 2010, 09:39:40 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +1.

Disapprove 52%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, -1.


Definite improvement in Obama's numbers.  Well off the lows.

Now, if only Russ weren't such money grabbers and let us see the statewide approvals for free still.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,508
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6406 on: October 03, 2010, 12:28:22 PM »
« Edited: October 03, 2010, 01:04:35 PM by pbrower2a »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +1.

Disapprove 52%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, -1.


Definite improvement in Obama's numbers.  Well off the lows.

...and not far off the recent high of 50%. 50% wins against anyone but a charismatic opponent; something a little less requires some campaigning. 

In any event, 48% is a good start before an electoral campaign is underway.
Logged
Poundingtherock
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 917
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6407 on: October 03, 2010, 12:59:53 PM »

Definite improvement?  He's "in range" as you would say and who's to say he won't be at 44% in two days.
Logged
CJK
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 671
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6408 on: October 03, 2010, 01:32:34 PM »

Obama approval rating September 2010 (gallup):

45% Approve

47% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 45/39 (September 1978)

Reagan: 42/48 (September 1982)

Bush I: 72/18 (September 1990)

Clinton: 42/52 (September 1994)

Bush II: 67/28 (September 2002)
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,524
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6409 on: October 03, 2010, 02:08:35 PM »

Obama approval rating September 2010 (gallup):

45% Approve

47% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 45/39 (September 1978)

Reagan: 42/48 (September 1982)

Bush I: 72/18 (September 1990)

Clinton: 42/52 (September 1994)

Bush II: 67/28 (September 2002)


Oh, look.
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,941
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6410 on: October 03, 2010, 02:44:59 PM »

Obama approval rating September 2010 (gallup):

45% Approve

47% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 45/39 (September 1978)

Reagan: 42/48 (September 1982)

Bush I: 72/18 (September 1990)

Clinton: 42/52 (September 1994)

Bush II: 67/28 (September 2002)


Oh, look.

Reagan too.
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,524
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6411 on: October 03, 2010, 02:57:48 PM »

Obama approval rating September 2010 (gallup):

45% Approve

47% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 45/39 (September 1978)

Reagan: 42/48 (September 1982)

Bush I: 72/18 (September 1990)

Clinton: 42/52 (September 1994)

Bush II: 67/28 (September 2002)


Oh, look.

Reagan too.

Indeed, but at the moment I'm more inclined to believe that Obama will be more like Clinton than a Democratic Reagan. That'll change in the next 2 years, probably.
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,941
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6412 on: October 03, 2010, 03:01:13 PM »

Obama approval rating September 2010 (gallup):

45% Approve

47% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 45/39 (September 1978)

Reagan: 42/48 (September 1982)

Bush I: 72/18 (September 1990)

Clinton: 42/52 (September 1994)

Bush II: 67/28 (September 2002)


Oh, look.

Reagan too.

Indeed, but at the moment I'm more inclined to believe that Obama will be more like Clinton than a Democratic Reagan. That'll change in the next 2 years, probably.

No candidate will be winning 49 states any time soon. Tongue
Logged
Mr.Phips
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,207


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6413 on: October 03, 2010, 03:07:04 PM »

Obama approval rating September 2010 (gallup):

45% Approve

47% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 45/39 (September 1978)

Reagan: 42/48 (September 1982)

Bush I: 72/18 (September 1990)

Clinton: 42/52 (September 1994)

Bush II: 67/28 (September 2002)


Oh, look.

Reagan too.

Indeed, but at the moment I'm more inclined to believe that Obama will be more like Clinton than a Democratic Reagan. That'll change in the next 2 years, probably.

So Obama spends his second term deregulating the financial sector?
Logged
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,340
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6414 on: October 03, 2010, 03:24:32 PM »

Obama approval rating September 2010 (gallup):

45% Approve

47% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 45/39 (September 1978)

Reagan: 42/48 (September 1982)

Bush I: 72/18 (September 1990)

Clinton: 42/52 (September 1994)

Bush II: 67/28 (September 2002)

Oh, look.

Reagan too.

And Carter, in terms of approval.  So 2/3 in terms of being a good sign Tongue
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,508
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6415 on: October 03, 2010, 03:38:00 PM »

Obama approval rating September 2010 (gallup):

45% Approve

47% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 45/39 (September 1978)

Reagan: 42/48 (September 1982)

Bush I: 72/18 (September 1990)

Clinton: 42/52 (September 1994)

Bush II: 67/28 (September 2002)

Oh, look.

Reagan too.

And Carter, in terms of approval.  So 2/3 in terms of being a good sign Tongue

The difference is that Jimmy Carter had few legislative achievements as President. When he sought re-election, Carter had to make fresh promises that few believed.   

Of course the Republicans would like to believe that President Obama has only dubious achievements in his legislation. Anyone who steps on the money machines of special interests is going to face well-funded, loud opposition -- as President Obama now gets in the form of attacks on all Democrats in Congress.
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,524
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6416 on: October 03, 2010, 03:44:06 PM »

Obama approval rating September 2010 (gallup):

45% Approve

47% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 45/39 (September 1978)

Reagan: 42/48 (September 1982)

Bush I: 72/18 (September 1990)

Clinton: 42/52 (September 1994)

Bush II: 67/28 (September 2002)


Oh, look.

Reagan too.

Indeed, but at the moment I'm more inclined to believe that Obama will be more like Clinton than a Democratic Reagan. That'll change in the next 2 years, probably.

No candidate will be winning 49 states any time soon. Tongue

He could still potentially win 60-40 while only winning 40 states.
Logged
Yelnoc
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,005
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6417 on: October 03, 2010, 04:10:13 PM »

Obama approval rating September 2010 (gallup):

45% Approve

47% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 45/39 (September 1978)

Reagan: 42/48 (September 1982)

Bush I: 72/18 (September 1990)

Clinton: 42/52 (September 1994)

Bush II: 67/28 (September 2002)

Interesting.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,906
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6418 on: October 03, 2010, 05:09:00 PM »

Obama approval rating September 2010 (gallup):

45% Approve

47% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 45/39 (September 1978)

Reagan: 42/48 (September 1982)

Bush I: 72/18 (September 1990)

Clinton: 42/52 (September 1994)

Bush II: 67/28 (September 2002)

Interesting.

It's interesting that Carter and Reagan were in such similar positions in year 2, given their ultimate results.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,904
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6419 on: October 03, 2010, 05:16:51 PM »

Obama approval rating September 2010 (gallup):

45% Approve

47% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 45/39 (September 1978)

Reagan: 42/48 (September 1982)

Bush I: 72/18 (September 1990)

Clinton: 42/52 (September 1994)

Bush II: 67/28 (September 2002)

Interesting.

It's interesting that Carter and Reagan were in such similar positions in year 2, given their ultimate results.

Actually, Carter had lower disapproval numbers at this point.  I think that might be the key and it has been a long term trend with Obama.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 43,378
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6420 on: October 03, 2010, 05:20:24 PM »

Obama approval rating September 2010 (gallup):

45% Approve

47% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 45/39 (September 1978)

Reagan: 42/48 (September 1982)

Bush I: 72/18 (September 1990)

Clinton: 42/52 (September 1994)

Bush II: 67/28 (September 2002)

Interesting.

It's interesting that Carter and Reagan were in such similar positions in year 2, given their ultimate results.

It basically just shows that there's no real correlation between presidential popularity at the 2 year mark and that president's reelection chances.  2 years is just too far in advance to make a reliable prediction on whether a president will be reelected.
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 42,581
Dominica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6421 on: October 03, 2010, 05:37:59 PM »

Obama approval rating September 2010 (gallup):

45% Approve

47% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 45/39 (September 1978)

Reagan: 42/48 (September 1982)

Bush I: 72/18 (September 1990)

Clinton: 42/52 (September 1994)

Bush II: 67/28 (September 2002)

Interesting.

It's interesting that Carter and Reagan were in such similar positions in year 2, given their ultimate results.

Actually, Carter had lower disapproval numbers at this point.  I think that might be the key and it has been a long term trend with Obama.

Obama has lower disapprovals than Reagan and Clinton.
Logged
Dgov
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,558
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6422 on: October 03, 2010, 06:32:18 PM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +1.

Disapprove 52%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, -1.


Definite improvement in Obama's numbers.  Well off the lows.

Which is funny, because September has seen his monthly average approval numbers hit a new low, at 45%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_month_by_month

Though the numbers have shown remarkable stability throughout the year so far.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,508
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6423 on: October 03, 2010, 06:53:34 PM »
« Edited: October 03, 2010, 11:03:36 PM by pbrower2a »

Obama approval rating September 2010 (gallup):

45% Approve

47% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 45/39 (September 1978)

Reagan: 42/48 (September 1982)

Bush I: 72/18 (September 1990)

Clinton: 42/52 (September 1994)

Bush II: 67/28 (September 2002)

Interesting.

It's interesting that Carter and Reagan were in such similar positions in year 2, given their ultimate results.

It basically just shows that there's no real correlation between presidential popularity at the 2 year mark and that president's reelection chances.  2 years is just too far in advance to make a reliable prediction on whether a president will be reelected.


Presidents Reagan, Clinton, and so far Obama have had considerable legislative activity, a clear contrast to President Carter. Even without the fiasco of the Iranian hostage crisis, he would have had to make fresh promises that few would have expected him to deliver.

Of course, many on the Right hold that President Obama has had the sorts of (dubious)  achievements that will ensure his defeat in 2012.  Such is as much wishful thinking as were projections by liberals that President Reagan would have one term because of his (dubious) achievements.

An international debacle, a scandal, sharp deterioration of his abilities, or an unforeseen shift in political culture (the Tea Party Movement will not be enough) in American political culture could conceivably bring him down in 2012... but that is all unpredictable.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,508
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6424 on: October 04, 2010, 10:38:57 AM »
« Edited: October 05, 2010, 05:21:22 PM by pbrower2a »

Arkansas -- Rasmussen slipped out that Obama has 34% support there. First letter "J", one that I didn't expect to put on the map. No surprise there.

Wyoming, a bit later -- almost the same with 32% approval of President Obama.



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  129
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  81
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 108
white                        too close to call  48
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  9
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   151  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


Logged
Pages: 1 ... 252 253 254 255 256 [257] 258 259 260 261 262 ... 410  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.142 seconds with 13 queries.