The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[DariusNJ]

It looks like Obama is hovering around 55-57% approval ratings. I think as long as Obama doesn't go under 40%, he'll be fine. Then, when the economy turns around, his approval will shoot up, similar to W's approval after they captured Saddam.

[DariusNJ]

when the economy turns around,

Evidence?

There hasn't really been an economic recovery yet, but I'd guess that there's a VERY strong chance that the economy will rebound in the next few years before 2012, enough to boost Obama's approval ratings no matter what they are (could be 20% or 80%).

[DariusNJ]

Nevada (Mason-Dixon)

47% Excellent/Good (25% Excellent, 22% Good)
50% Fair/Poor (25% Fair, 25% Poor)

49% Favorable
32% Unfavorable
19% Neutral

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C., from June 18 through June 19, 2009. A total of 625 registered Nevada voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they vote regularly in state elections.

http://www.lvrj.com/hottopics/politics/polls/june_2009_polls.html

It looks like the Mountain West states are now 50\50 on Obama, after voting for him decisively in the election. I saw a poll from New Mexico where his numbers were barely 50\50. Colorado approves of him, but not very strongly.

Can anyone explain this? My guess is that the libertarians in these states may have supported Obama on election day, but they don't support him anymore.

[DariusNJ]

Today's Gallup has Obama at 60-33. It was 57-35 yesterday.

Why does Gallup have these large random swings? This definitely isn't the first time.

[DariusNJ]

Texas (Texas Lyceum)

68% Approve
29% Disapprove

We interviewed Texas adults during the June 5-12 period, talking to 860 adults, 51% female, and 49% male. Three out of four said they are registered voters.

About a third of the respondents (32%) are identified as Hispanic, 11% as African American, and 54% as White.

More respondents (46%) identified themselves as Independents than as Republicans (25%) or Democrats (28%). More of those who don't identify with a party said they lean Republican (29%) than lean Democrat (22%).

Asked about their political outlook, more consider themselves Conservative (46%) than as Moderate (35%) or Liberal (19%).

http://www.texaslyceum.org/media/staticContent/PubCon_Journals/2009/TexasLyceum2009Poll_ExecutiveSummary_2010RacesAndApprovalRatings.pdf

LOL, thats an outlier. The only way Texas gives Obama a 68% approval rating is if Obama is at 75-80% approval nationwide.

The NJ, NY, and OH polls look about right.

[DariusNJ]

Pennsylvania (F&M)

55% Excellent/Good
44% Fair/Poor

56% Favorable
27% Unfavorable

The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted June 16-21, 2009. The data included in this release represent the responses of 580 adult residents of Pennsylvania. The sample error for this survey is +/- 4.1 percent.

http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/June%202009%20Franklin%20and%20Marshall%20College%20Poll%20Release.pdf

Pretty good approval ratings, considering that they included the "fair" option. I hate when they do that, it doesn't give us a clear picture. Ask if they approve or disapprove, much simpler in my opinion.

It looks like Obama's approval ratings in the Rust Belt are holding up well.

[DariusNJ]

Democracy Corps:

56% approve, 36% disapprove

Dems: 89\6
Reps: 17\74
Inds: 50\39

http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2009/06/creating-a-sustainable-majority-for-health-care-reform/

Also, CNN releases a poll they did a MONTH ago.

66% approve, 29% disapprove
http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/06/25/obama.poll/index.html

Strategic Vision New Jersey: 56% approve, 38% disapprove
http://strategicvision.biz/political/newjersey_poll_062409.htm

ARG: 57% approve, 41% disapprove
http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/

This poll shows Obama approval among independents as 47\48.

[DariusNJ]

New Survery USA 50 polls:

Approve\Disapprove

Alabama: 46\49
California: 64\32
Iowa: 57\39
Kansas: 49\49
Kentucky: 47\51
Minnesota: 59\36
Missouri: 51\45
New Mexico: 53\44
New York: 65\30
Oregon: 56\41
Virginia: 59\36
Washington State: 63\33
Wisconsin: 59\38

[DariusNJ]

^ Actually, I think it could be higher than that. It says that 16% say he's doing a fair job, while only 4% say he's doing a poor job. I hate when they include the "fair" option.

[DariusNJ]

PPP will poll Pawlenty against Obama in Minnesota this week ...

I think Obama will have a lead of 3-4 points.

[DariusNJ]

I know favorable ratings aren't the same thing as approval ratings, but they go hand in hand.

Anyway, Obama's favorable ratings in NC: 61% favorable, 29% unfavorable

http://www.nccivitas.org/media/poll-results/june-2009-poll-results

[DariusNJ]

Judging by all these new state polls, I'd peg Obama's nationwide approval somewhere around 50-53%.

[DariusNJ]

2012 President
Obama 36%, Romney 34%

I'm pretty sure most of the 30% who didn't give an answer are Republicans, so not to worry.

[DariusNJ]

CNN Poll:

61% approve, 37% disapprove

http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2009/images/07/08/rel10j.pdf

[DariusNJ]

2012 President
Obama 36%, Romney 34%

I'm pretty sure most of the 30% who didn't give an answer are Republicans, so not to worry.

That Obama should be slightly ahead of Romney in Texas even with a large number of undecided suggests that

(1) Texans don't know Romney well enough to make a decision,

(2) Romney would be in trouble in Texas in 2012 against Obama, or

(3) Huckabee would do far better than Romney in Texas.

I would have expected Romney to fare better than Huckabee in Texas.

1 is the correct answer.

Texas would definitely favour Huckabee more than Mitt Romney. Texas has a large base of evangelicals (24.4 % I believe), and it is a very conservative state with a Southern culture. Huckabee got 38% in the Texas primary, much more than Mitt Romney would have gotten even if he was still in the race.

[DariusNJ]

Here's the Minnesota poll:

Obama 51, Pawlenty 40
Obama 56, Palin 35

Obama: 54% Approve, 39% Disapprove

Pawlenty: 44% approve, 48% disapprove

Palin: 39% favorable, 53% unfavorable


http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

[DariusNJ]

Gallup poll for the week ending July 12th

58% approve, 34% disapprove

Male: 54% approve
Female: 62% approve

Dems: 90% approve
Reps: 20% approve
Indeps: 56% approve

18-29: 70% approve
30-49: 58% approve
50-64: 57% approve
65+: 52% approve

White: 51% approve
Black: 91% approve
Hispanic: 75% approve

http://www.gallup.com/poll/politics.aspx?CSTS=wwwsitemap&to=POLL-PoliticsNews

[DariusNJ]

His approval ratings are looking good in the Northeast.

[DariusNJ]

Gallup poll for the week ending July 19th:

59% approve, 33% disapprove

71% approval among 18-29 year olds, 49% approval among those over 65
His best region is the East, with 68% approval, while his worst is the South, with 55% approval

51% of Whites approve, 81% of Non Whites approve (94% of blacks, 79% of hispanics)

92% of Dems approve, 56% of independents, as do 23% of Republicans

http://www.gallup.com/poll/121199/Obama-Weekly-Job-Approval-Demographic-Groups.aspx

[DariusNJ]

Georgia (Strategic Vision)

40% Approve
52% Disapprove

The results are based on telephone interviews with 800 likely voters in Georgia, aged 18+, and conducted July 17-19, 2009 by telephone. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/georgia_poll_072209.htm

I doubt his numbers are that low in Georgia. I think they're more in the 45-50% range.

[DariusNJ]

PPP Louisiana:

Obama: 44% approve, 50% disapprove
74% of Dems approve, 30% of indeps approve, 12% of Reps approve
91% of AA's approve, 25% of whites approve

Landrieu: 43% approve, 43% disapprove

Jindal: 55% approve

Palin: 46% favorable, 42% unfavorable

Jindal vs Obama: Jindal 54, Obama 40

Palin vs Obama: Palin 49, Obama 42

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Louisiana_722.pdf

[DariusNJ]

The Virginia poll is an outlier. His approval in Virginia is probably between 50-55%.

[DariusNJ]

Um, the point was that even though the public in 1993 said they agreed with the Democrats more than the Republicans, they had no problem with throwing them out of Congress the very next year. The same dynamic can work now. Remember, the Democrat's rise in 2006 was almost entirely due to anti-Bush sentiment, not any positive agenda they offered. Being "the party of no" may be enough for Republicans to make gains in 2010 (assuming discontent with  Obama) even if the public presently supports the Democrats more than the Republicans.

Agreed

[DariusNJ]

Gallup

Approve 55%

Disapprove 38%

Rasmussen

Approve 50%

Disapprove 48%

Looks like he recovered from that whole Gates issue, he's increased a couple of points in the polls.

[DariusNJ]

PPP: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_805513.pdf

Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama's job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you're not sure, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 42%
Disapprove...................................................... 51%
Not Sure.......................................................... 7%

Quoting from the PPP release:

It’s important to note that if this poll was of the 2008 electorate Obama’s
approval would be a positive 50/44, but his low numbers among likely voters for this
fall’s election reflects Democratic disinterest in the race.

More highlights from this poll:
- Only 53% of Virginia voters believe that Obama was born in the United States, while
24% think he was not and 24% are unsure.
-Only 3% of Republicans approve of his job performance.