The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 16, 2024, 04:34:44 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 211 212 213 214 215 [216] 217 218 219 220 221 ... 410
Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1267600 times)
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,921
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5375 on: July 21, 2010, 07:16:31 AM »

That map is looking better everyday. Will the GOP win it back? Yes we can!

The GOP has much convincing to do -- mainly in convincing people that the best of all possible worlds is one in which they are peons and a few people can live like sultans.

Be careful in what you wish for; you might not like what you wish for. 
Logged
Small Business Owner of Any Repute
Mr. Moderate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,431
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5376 on: July 21, 2010, 07:56:01 AM »

Be careful in what you wish for; you might not like what you wish for. 

You are wise beyond your wise.
Logged
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5377 on: July 21, 2010, 08:29:18 AM »

That map is looking better everyday. Will the GOP win it back? Yes we can!
Be careful in what you wish for; you might not like what you wish for.  
What I wish for is to put pbrower on ignore cause he's annoying.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5378 on: July 21, 2010, 09:03:21 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, u.

Disapprove 53% u.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, u.

Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,201
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5379 on: July 21, 2010, 10:28:54 AM »

GA (Rasmussen)Sad 41-58

KY (Rasmussen)Sad 42-58

Quinnipiac: 44-48

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1478
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,921
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5380 on: July 21, 2010, 10:52:47 AM »

Kentucky Survey of 750 Likely Voters

Conducted July 20, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President … do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

25% Strongly approve
17% Somewhat approve
10% Somewhat disapprove
48% Strongly disapprove
   1% Not sure

(That's very close to how Kentucky voted in 2008, which says something, even before any assumptions that a campaign season would give any advantages to the incumbent)

Georgia Survey of 1,500 Likely Voters
Conducted July 13, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

31% Strongly approve
10% Somewhat approve
  7% Somewhat disapprove
51% Strongly disapprove
  0% Not sure

(Not far off from the 2008 election even without any assumptions of a dynamic advantage for an incumbent President).

Should President Obama get 42% of the vote in Kentucky in 2012, then things are probably much like 2008. Should President Obama get 48% of the vote in Kentucky, then the GOP will be in deep trouble in 2012.






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

49 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House (not counting a poll by a near-affiliate of the GOP now including a valid poll in Nebraska. The exception is Montana among the states. DC has yet to be polled.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 133
white                        too close to call  6
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  60
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  54
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 107
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......


Note that I have just added a level of support of 44% to fit the "too close to call category".

Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,201
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5381 on: July 21, 2010, 11:03:14 AM »

(Not far off from the 2008 election even without any assumptions of a dynamic advantage for an incumbent President).

Should President Obama get 42% of the vote in Kentucky in 2012, then things are probably much like 2008. Should President Obama get 48% of the vote in Kentucky, then the GOP will be in deep trouble in 2012.

You fail to see that Obama is currently in big trouble in all swing states. He has negative approvals in every state there (except maybe Iowa), which is an indicator that he has a problem with Independents. Kentucky and Georgia don´t matter, the race is not won there. Obama has to improve his numbers in these states in the coming 2 years, because winning the Kerry states plus IA, NM and NV won´t be enough for 2012 due to re-alignment of the electoral college (269-269 tie). He`ll need 1 more state than in 2008 to win, like CO, OH, VA or FL.
Logged
Devilman88
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5382 on: July 21, 2010, 11:19:44 AM »

(Not far off from the 2008 election even without any assumptions of a dynamic advantage for an incumbent President).

Should President Obama get 42% of the vote in Kentucky in 2012, then things are probably much like 2008. Should President Obama get 48% of the vote in Kentucky, then the GOP will be in deep trouble in 2012.

You fail to see that Obama is currently in big trouble in all swing states. He has negative approvals in every state there (except maybe Iowa), which is an indicator that he has a problem with Independents. Kentucky and Georgia don´t matter, the race is not won there. Obama has to improve his numbers in these states in the coming 2 years, because winning the Kerry states plus IA, NM and NV won´t be enough for 2012 due to re-alignment of the electoral college (269-269 tie). He`ll need 1 more state than in 2008 to win, like CO, OH, VA or FL.

You can't tell him that, he can't see anything besides the inside of Obama's butt.
Logged
Derek
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,615
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5383 on: July 21, 2010, 12:44:05 PM »

Kentucky Survey of 750 Likely Voters

Conducted July 20, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President … do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

25% Strongly approve
17% Somewhat approve
10% Somewhat disapprove
48% Strongly disapprove
   1% Not sure

(That's very close to how Kentucky voted in 2008, which says something, even before any assumptions that a campaign season would give any advantages to the incumbent)

Georgia Survey of 1,500 Likely Voters
Conducted July 13, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

31% Strongly approve
10% Somewhat approve
  7% Somewhat disapprove
51% Strongly disapprove
  0% Not sure

(Not far off from the 2008 election even without any assumptions of a dynamic advantage for an incumbent President).

Should President Obama get 42% of the vote in Kentucky in 2012, then things are probably much like 2008. Should President Obama get 48% of the vote in Kentucky, then the GOP will be in deep trouble in 2012.






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

49 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House (not counting a poll by a near-affiliate of the GOP now including a valid poll in Nebraska. The exception is Montana among the states. DC has yet to be polled.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 133
white                        too close to call  6
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  60
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  54
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 107
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......


Note that I have just added a level of support of 44% to fit the "too close to call category".



Are you delusional or stuck inside Obama's rear end like Obama is himself? What is wrong with you? How is being at 46% and struggling now in his home state of IL, CA, WA, and the fact he would lose DE good for Obama?
Logged
CatoMinor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,007
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5384 on: July 21, 2010, 01:02:46 PM »

ID, OH, FL, NV, WI, MN, GA, KY


Arkansas - Dark Blue
30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
Logged
Devilman88
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5385 on: July 21, 2010, 01:08:01 PM »

I looked at Bush's approval ratings around the 2004 election and his approval ratings were around 50% the same percentage he won in the election...
Logged
CatoMinor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,007
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5386 on: July 21, 2010, 01:17:35 PM »
« Edited: July 21, 2010, 01:19:20 PM by SE Gov. JBrase »

Trying to avoid any partisan bias/hackishness



This model applies to absolutely nobody as we are 2 years out from election night 2012.
Logged
Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,220
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5387 on: July 21, 2010, 02:27:42 PM »

Trying to avoid any partisan bias/hackishness



This model applies to absolutely nobody as we are 2 years out from election night 2012.
*Scratches head*

Oregon is a swing state?
Logged
CatoMinor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,007
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5388 on: July 21, 2010, 02:43:19 PM »

Trying to avoid any partisan bias/hackishness



This model applies to absolutely nobody as we are 2 years out from election night 2012.
*Scratches head*

Oregon is a swing state?
His approvals havent been exactly high there, but the map doesn't mean anything as we are too far out from 2012 to have an idea of what it will look like.
Logged
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5389 on: July 21, 2010, 02:56:18 PM »
« Edited: July 21, 2010, 02:58:01 PM by MagneticFree »

I like how CO and NM are surrounded by all REP states, makes you wonder how those two became swing states. Well, for one people bring their dumb politics around wherever they go. You think AZ and CO are the same politically, but that's not the case with the maps we have here.
Logged
Vepres
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,032
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5390 on: July 21, 2010, 02:58:39 PM »

I like how CO and NM are surrounded by all REP states, makes you wonder how those two became swing states. Well, for one people bring their dumb politics around wherever they go.

Denver is the main reason Colorado is a toss-up. Due to its central geographic location, it has sort of become a general hub of the region, thus attracting all sorts of people. Not to mention the ski counties.
Logged
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5391 on: July 21, 2010, 03:00:10 PM »

I like how CO and NM are surrounded by all REP states, makes you wonder how those two became swing states. Well, for one people bring their dumb politics around wherever they go.

Denver is the main reason Colorado is a toss-up. Due to its central geographic location, it has sort of become a general hub of the region, thus attracting all sorts of people. Not to mention the ski counties.
I guarantee you if Denver hasnt become so liberal, it wouldnt be so bad to live here but I miss the early 80s before it just blew up. Hell, I live 20 minutes north of the city but the traffic is crazy.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,921
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5392 on: July 21, 2010, 05:31:58 PM »

I like how CO and NM are surrounded by all REP states, makes you wonder how those two became swing states. Well, for one people bring their dumb politics around wherever they go. You think AZ and CO are the same politically, but that's not the case with the maps we have here.

Utah has far more Mormons. Colorado and New Mexico both have large Hispanic populations, in contrast to Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, and Utah. Arizona has more retirees, now a relatively R-leaning bunch.

Colorado did shift R in the 1990s because of conservatives from Southern California relocating there. Of course they brought their kids along, and their kids now vote -- but not especially R.   
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,201
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5393 on: July 22, 2010, 12:43:47 AM »

WA (SurveyUSA):

43/44% Approve (article says 43%, video says 44%)
53% Disapprove

http://www.king5.com/news/politics/McGinns-approval-ratings-rise-Gregoires-fall-in-new-poll-98973309.html
Logged
CatoMinor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,007
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5394 on: July 22, 2010, 01:20:11 AM »

WA??? this is surprising, I'm just gonna pretend it is slightly higher, until another poll is released confirming this.

Arkansas - Dark Blue
30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
Logged
Derek
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,615
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5395 on: July 22, 2010, 03:34:41 AM »

WA??? this is surprising, I'm just gonna pretend it is slightly higher, until another poll is released confirming this.

Arkansas - Dark Blue
30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

WOW WA is about as left wing as CA.
Logged
Derek
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,615
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5396 on: July 22, 2010, 03:40:22 AM »

http://


This represents his approval ratings.
Logged
Dgov
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,558
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5397 on: July 22, 2010, 04:25:21 AM »

WOW WA is about as left wing as CA.

I'm not entirely sure on this poll, but realize WA is a different type of left than CA.  They tend to be more socially Liberal rather than fiscally Liberal outside of Seattle proper, so it could be that Obama's fiscal liberalism is hurting him among some of the Seattle Suburbanites.

This is contrasted to say, where I live, where the political center is roughly between "kill the Rich" and "just imprison the rich".

It also might be that he's losing center-left White voters, as California is much browner than Washington and voters here might just be supporting him on racial rather than direct political lines.

Although "outlier poll" is still the most likely explanation
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,921
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5398 on: July 22, 2010, 08:12:10 AM »


Idaho Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted July 15, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       18% Strongly approve
       14% Somewhat approve
         7% Somewhat disapprove
       61% Strongly disapprove
         0% Not sure

No surprise there.

New York State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted July 20, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

            31% Strongly approve
            22% Somewhat approve
            11% Somewhat disapprove
            34% Strongly disapprove
              2% Not sure






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

49 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House (not counting a poll by a near-affiliate of the GOP now including a valid poll in Nebraska. The exception is Montana among the states. DC has yet to be polled.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 133
white                        too close to call  6
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  60
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  54
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 107
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......


Note that I have just added a level of support of 44% to fit the "too close to call category".


Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,921
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5399 on: July 22, 2010, 08:15:08 AM »


SurveyUSA polls usually get repudiated quickly.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 211 212 213 214 215 [216] 217 218 219 220 221 ... 410  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.225 seconds with 11 queries.