The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

In the same month with no breaking news likely to change events we can find averages between credible pollsters. PPP, Rasmussen, and Strategic Vision are likely to get different results because of different methodologies. 

[Rowan]

You are such a liar. The only reason you are averaging it is because the Ohio poll is negative. If it was positive, you wouldn't be doing any kind of averaging.

[pbrower2a]

You are such a liar. The only reason you are averaging it is because the Ohio poll is negative. If it was positive, you wouldn't be doing any kind of averaging.

Wrong! That is to keep recent polls relevant and not simply to decide that the most recent poll within a month supersedes all others. 

[Farage]

You are such a liar. The only reason you are averaging it is because the Ohio poll is negative. If it was positive, you wouldn't be doing any kind of averaging.

agreed
pbrower2a is dishonest ...

[Hash]

What the hell is so hard about making an honest map without stupid rounding?

[pbrower2a]

What the hell is so hard about making an honest map without stupid rounding?

It's impossible to do so without rounding.

Really, I don't round between 45 and 55, which is the "interesting" zone. A candidate with a 56% approval rate is still closer to 60% than to 50%.

Political activity works at the margins. Big gains and losses are rare -- but telling.


Averaging seems to cause more trouble. I believe that if someone has a 52% approval rating from one poll on Monday, a 44% approval rating on Wednesday, and a 52% approval rating on Friday, is his approval really 52%? It's probably about 49%. Everything -- including polling itself -- entails estimates. Some estimates are more valid than others.   

[tmthforu94]

You don't make sense, pbrower. Obama's disapproval rating is higher than his approval rating in Ohio, yet you color it green because of rounding? There have been more Virginia polls in the past few weeks that have had Obama yellow, not green, yet you still leave Ohio green.
50% of Ohio residents do no support Obama. Only 48% do. I wouldn't even round if Obama had 59% in a state.

[You kip if you want to...]

Today's trackers:
Rass - 51/48
Gallup - 50/42

Rass is higher than Gallup... is this a sign of the apocalypse or something?

[Lief 🐋]

Today's trackers:
Rass - 51/48
Gallup - 50/42

Rass is higher than Gallup... is this a sign of the apocalypse or something?

Yeah, but if Gallup pushed undecideds like Rass does, they'd probably still be higher.

[pbrower2a]

You don't make sense, pbrower. Obama's disapproval rating is higher than his approval rating in Ohio, yet you color it green because of rounding? There have been more Virginia polls in the past few weeks that have had Obama yellow, not green, yet you still leave Ohio green.
50% of Ohio residents do no support Obama. Only 48% do. I wouldn't even round if Obama had 59% in a state.

It's not rounding; it's averaging. A 49-48 difference, were it so, would still be green because it is positive -- just a very pale green. Turn it around, and it would be yellow.

I do not round between 45 and 55.

[Tender Branson]

Colorado (The Tarrance Group (R) for the Colorado Policy Institute)

48% Approve
47% Disapprove

The Tarrance Group is pleased to present the Colorado Policy Institute with the key findings from a survey of voter attitudes in Colorado. These key findings are based on telephone interviews with N=500 “likely” registered voters throughout the State. Responses to this survey were gathered September 16-17, 2009 and the confidence interval associated with a sample of this type is + 4.5%.

http://www.coloradopolicyinstitute.com/Key%20Findings%20CPI%209-21-09.pdf

[pbrower2a]

Colorado (The Tarrance Group (R) for the Colorado Policy Institute)

48% Approve
47% Disapprove

The Tarrance Group is pleased to present the Colorado Policy Institute with the key findings from a survey of voter attitudes in Colorado. These key findings are based on telephone interviews with N=500 “likely” registered voters throughout the State. Responses to this survey were gathered September 16-17, 2009 and the confidence interval associated with a sample of this type is + 4.5%.

http://www.coloradopolicyinstitute.com/Key%20Findings%20CPI%209-21-09.pdf

See? Averaging prevents a sudden lurch of color for Colorado.

[Rowan]

You shouldn't be including internal partisan polls, as they are notoriously bad(and biased).

[Tender Branson]

BUMP !

[You kip if you want to...]

Today's trackers:

Gallup - 52/41
Rass - 50/49

[Psychic Octopus]

Today's trackers:

Gallup - 52/41
Rass - 50/49

Finally things are back to normal. Gallup should always be higher then Ras.

[DariusNJ]

Obama's approval seems to stay stable at his Election Day levels (53%). During the town hall meetings and all the outrage over healthcare, his approval dropped to 50%, but he quickly rebounded.

[fezzyfestoon]

Other people are allowed to make maps.  Here you go, if you don't like his.  No rounding, no selective averaging, just a report on the results of the most recent polls (only August and September).  Ignore the unchanging Maine and Nebraska month values.

[CJK]

We should really do separate maps, one of which that has adults/registered voters and the other one with likely voters.

[Tender Branson]

Minnesota (Star Tribune):

51% Approve
34% Disapprove

http://www.startribune.com/newsgraphics/62267652.html?elr=KArks8c7PaP3E77K_3c::D3aDhUoaEaD_ec7PaP3iUiacyKUUr

Arizona numbers will also be released later today.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I wish Dave could set up a map like he did for the election polling; so that we can see an unbiased view of the whole.

[pbrower2a]

Minnesota (Star Tribune):

51% Approve
34% Disapprove

Weird! The 14% undecided is remarkable.

I figure that people are confused about healthcare reforms.

[Tender Branson]

Additionally to Arizona today, Arkansas, Delaware, Kentucky, Louisiana and Virginia numbers will be released by Rasmussen this week, mostly Senate and Obama numbers and Virginia Governor numbers.

[Phony Moderate]

I can't wait until 2012 when that damn Socialist gets voted out of office. His approvals will be 20% on election day. Starting on Jan 20, 2013, Ron Paul will bring Capitalism back to America.

[You kip if you want to...]

I can't wait until 2012 when that damn Socialist gets voted out of office. His approvals will be 20% on election day. Starting on Jan 20, 2013, Ron Paul will bring Capitalism back to America.

LOL.