Another "who would you vote for in this scenario"

[Hash]

As some of you may know, there was an idea to start a Mock Parliament in a fictional Atlantic nation known as Antillia. Sadly, it doesn't seem to have worked well, but people wrote some good background information. For fun, I decided to use the created island and some of its geographical features to make a micronation of my own, also known as Antillia. However, I made it a French-majority nation, nearly 90% French (and 10% English). I haven't worked out the history of Antillia, but I have however written a bit on its current political makeup and general demographics (including a few maps).

I've written up a lot on the political parties, so here is a brief description. If there's interest, I'll post more. I also tried to roughly calculate the PM scores for the party, based on their 2008 platforms and the majority line. Obviously, it might not be very accurate as some issues don’t apply to Antillia (abortion is a non-issue: it was legalized in 1966 by the reformist UDC government).

The parties are ordered by the number of seats won (more on elections if there is interest)

Conservative Party (Con, PCA) The Conservative Party of Antillia was founded in 1922 on the ruins of the former Party of the Right. While at first attracting traditionalist Catholics as part of its coalition, its support with staunch Catholics diminished with the birth of the Union of the Centre in 1930. The Conservatives quickly emerged as one of the two governing parties with Labour (with the exception of the Union of the Centre from 1964 to 1968). It reached its low in the Labour era of the '80's, but rebounded to a high in 1992.
The Conservatives represent moderate, modern, suburban conservatism. It tends to take centrist stances (or none at all) on social issues, but it is interventionist in foreign affairs and is neoliberal in economic affairs and the strongest proponent of laissez-faire economics. It is also a strong supporter of free trade. The party has two main factions: a traditional right-wing one, which is socially conservative; and a newer progressive wing, which is increasingly socially liberal.
The Conservatives draw their support from a broad coalition. In most provinces, their base is formed by farmers in rural areas, and the suburban (with some urban) wealthy. In some provinces, it now draws support from traditional younger professionals, who are also social liberals.
PM: +3.6, +3.0

Labour Party (Lab, PT) The Labour Party was founded as a congregation of left-wing action groups, pacifists, and trade unionists in 1923. At first a fringe communist party, it expelled radicals in 1927 and became, with the Conservatives, a "natural" governing party. Until the '80's, Labour was seen as a white populist party. Its support was strongest in the '80's, but it collapsed in 1992. It has since seen its fortunes improve rather quickly, as Antillia is quite anti-incumbent.
Labour is a modern social democratic party. It is seen as socially liberal, but rarely takes strong stances on social issues. The main internal division within Labour has traditionally been over economics and has been at the core of internal party conflict in the '70's. The current leadership favours free trade (Labour's platform in 2008 favoured "free but fair trade") and generally internationalist.
Labour’s base is divided between historical social democrats, the traditional base; urban/suburban "left-liberals"; and finally unionized workers from the General Union of Antillian Workers (UGTA) trade union. It does well in most urban areas, industrial areas with a high UGTA membership, and some rural populist areas, leftovers from the party's populist days.
PM: -3.6, -1.6

Socialist Union (Soc, US) The Socialist Union was founded in 1929 as the Workers Party of Antillia (PTA) by the radical and communist wing of Labour, expelled from the party in 1927. At first a fringe party with support only from radical miners, the party in turn threw out its most radical elements (Trotskyites and orthodox communists), but remained on the sidelines and the mainstream left and right imposed a cordon sanitaire around it. It was only in 1965, when the party removed its last revolutionary tendencies, did it become more mainstream and they finally entered government in 1972. The Socialist Union was the first party to be strongly in favour of equal rights for blacks. Since then, the party has grown fast, and achieved their best electoral results in 1992 and 2004.
The Socialist Union’s official ideology is democratic socialism since 1965. It has never taken a position on social issues, due its division between rural social conservatives (who are opposed to gay marriage and euthanasia) and urban social liberals (who support gay marriage and euthanasia). In foreign issues, it is generally seen as isolationist. It is strongly protectionist.
The Socialist Union draws its support from the Union of Antillian Workers (UTA), which is very closely linked to the party. Its historical base are miners and workers in heavy manufacturing. In urban centres, it receives high levels of support from the poor and also immigrants and blacks.
PM: -6.8, -0.9

Union of the Centre (UDC) The Union of the Centre was founded by traditional Catholics and centrist Christian democrats in 1930 and soon rose to become the party of (primarily rural) Catholics. However, by the '60's the party turned away from staunch social conservative positions (such as strong support for confessional education) with the election of Étienne Flandin to the leadership. Flandin, sole UDC Prime Minister of Antillia, in power from 1964 to 1968, led a reformist and socially liberal agenda. In the 1970s, the influx of Radicals transformed the UDC into an even more secular, multi-confessional centrist liberal party. It has since lost lots of social conservative support to the Conservatives and has seen its results drop in elections.
The party is seen as moderately socially liberal and economically liberal since the '70's and has often been the most supportive of governmental and constitutional reforms. Its two main factions are the so-called "radicals", urban social liberals and economic neoliberals, and the "tradtionalists", neutral on social issues but economically liberal.
The UDC's base is a strange mix. On one hand "moderate" Catholics and Catholic farmers; and young, urban liberal professionals on the other. Since its movement to the left, it has attracted more and more young voters, especially in college towns. Its stronghold remains the province of Arcadie.
PM: -0.9, +0.9

The Greens (Grn, Verts) The Greens were founded in 1992 by various pacifists, ecologists, and environmentalists. The Greens have failed to make a large breakthrough nationally, even though they have made some important gains provincially. In 2004, it entered the Labour-led government with its leader and sole MP as Minister of the Environment. In 2008, it agreed to prop up a Conservative government, after falling out with the left-wing government.
The Greens are the most socially liberal party, with strong support for euthanasia and gay marriage. However, in economic matters, the party is closely divided between liberals and protectionists. The current leadership is slightly protectionist.
The Greens draw their support from young professionals, ecologists, and social liberals; most concentrated in urban or suburban areas. It has little or no support in rural areas.
PM: -4.8, -4.7

The Radicals (Rad) The Radicals were founded as a secular centre-right liberal party in 1945. However, it received only 2 to 4 percent support in elections and many Radicals left the party to join the centrist Union of the Centre in the '70's, and in turn liberalized and secularized that party. The remaining Radicals are currently a fringe party at best with minimal party structures. Its leader, Charles Freycinet, holds his seat only through an electoral alliance with the Union of the Centre.
The party is socially liberal and neoliberal in economic affairs. It is considered on the centre-right of the political spectrum. On economic matters, it is considered the most pro-free trade party. In foreign issues, it is strongly internationalist.
The little support the Radicals attract comes from social liberals and young urban professionals.
PM: -0.39, -4.0

Coalitions:

*Union of the Right and Centre: Con, UDC, Rad
*Coalition of Left: Lab, Soc
*Independent of coalitions: Grn (supports centre-right)

[k-onmmunist]

Radicals

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Labour.

[Thomas216]

Conservatives.
I'd actually feel rather comfortable voting for them viewing their nearly identical PM score.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

UDC - Centrists.  (Normal)

[Hash]

Bump.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

The Conservatives.

[Rob]

Interesting scenario... I'd vote for the Socialist Union.

[Lief 🗽]

I was going to vote Green, but I don't really want to support the center-right coalition, so Socialist Union, in the urban wing of the party. Having both a social democratic and democratic socialist party seems a bit redundant though.

[Lincoln Republican]

Conservative Party, without a doubt.

[Hash]

I was going to vote Green, but I don't really want to support the center-right coalition, so Socialist Union, in the urban wing of the party. Having both a social democratic and democratic socialist party seems a bit redundant though.

There are ideological differences between Labour and the Socialists. I outlined a few of them. The major one is on economics, but they're also miles apart on foreign policy. Labour is internationalist, and is hawkish depending on the leadership. It supported adhesion to the WTO. The Socialists are isolationists, and were opposed to joining the WTO and they originally opposed joining the UN in the '60's. Labour supported World War II, the Socialists (PTA as they were known then) was the only anti-war party and was not part of the wartime National Union (Conservatives, UDC, Labour coalition).
Then, there's also a trade union rivalry between the UGTA (Labour) and the UTA (Socialist).

BTW. Any interests in some maps and election results? I've got a few. 

[Robespierre's Jaw]

BTW. Any interests in some maps and election results? I've got a few. 

Of course Hash

The Radicals for sure, as they are the only political party in Antillia who closely represents my political views, or should I say PM score.

[k-onmmunist]

BTW. Any interests in some maps and election results? I've got a few. 

Of course Hash

The Radicals for sure, as they are the only political party in Antillia who closely represents my political views, or should I say PM score.

Finally, another Radical!

[Hash]

Maps tonight if I have time. If not, then tomorrow.

[Hash]

Time for a few maps.

First, here's a general map with province names and their capitals



A linguistic map



Industry map. Miners are included in manual workers, as are those employed in manufacturing and those employed in fishing manufacturing industries (canning, processing etc). Agriculteurs include farm workers.




The 2008 election



Conservative 34.12% (+0.26%) winning 49 seats (+4)
Labour 27.69% (-0.96%) winning 41 seats (2)
Socialist 18.65% (-1.33%) winning 27 seats (-2)
Union of the Centre 16.44% (+1.33%) winning 19 seats (-)
Greens 2.34% (+0.80%) winning 1 seat (-)
Others 0.44% (-0.32%) winning 0 seats (-)
Radicals 0.32% (+0.22%) winning 1 seat (-)
Swing from Lab to Con of 0.68%
Union of the Right and Centre 50.88% (+1.81%) winning 69 seats (+4)
Coalition of the Left 48.68% (-1.49%) winning 69 seats (-4)
Others 0.44% (-0.32%) winning 0 seats (-)

Direct vote for President (in which coalitions run one common candidate)



Fréderic Myard (Coalition of the Left) 46.89%
Michel Morin (Union of the Right and Centre) 53.11%

Here is 2004



And here is a map of the provincial legislatures constituencies



I wrote a lot of detailed analysis on this stuff, so if you have any questions about the electoral maps, fire away.

[k-onmmunist]

Awesome maps, Hashemite.

[tmthforu94]

Conservative, although it is not as socially conservative as I would like..

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Conservative, although it is not as socially conservative as I would like..

A vast majority of conservative parties outside the continental United States actually are, in case you haven't noticed. In fact, on some issues, as Andrew has stated numerous times, the David Cameron led Tories are more so liberal than the Democratic Party itself. Funny, eh?

[Hash]

Bump. I think I'll post more stuff this weekend since I feel like it.

[Smid]

Excellent work, Hashemite! I was disappointed the Mock Parliament never got up off the ground. I'd like to see you put more stuff out. Maybe incorporate more of it into the Mock Parliament thread, also, and see if we can get it moving again?

[Hash]

I'd like to see you put more stuff out.

Interested in anything particular?

[Smid]

Just generally. Demographics, politics, history, anything really. I would like to see it developed into a timeline at some point.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Socialist union

[Hash]

Socialist union

Why not Labour?

[k-onmmunist]

I concur with Smid.

It would be cool to see some historical election results