Florida

[Filuwaúrdjan]

whut. i had know idea that jEb is gAy.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Go Connie Mack IV.

Oh well. Rubio 2010!

Looks like we will be on opposite sides of a nasty primary fight. I think Rubio would be smarter to wait till 2012. Going up against Mack is almost like challenging a Bush, in Florida terms anyway. Instead this could be like CO 2004 with a nasty primary fight producing a weakened candidate in a swing state. Granted the 2004 FL Sen primary was nasty Martinez had help from above in the general. Whoever the nominee is won't have that with him. First we will have to see if Mack runs.

No, let's have Mack wait. At least he has a House seat that he can spend some time in. Rubio is out of office.

My prefered scenario was for Mack to get this open seat and Jeb Bush our strongest candidate to run against Bill Nelson in 2012. But what the hell the I'm a Republican, I belonged to no organised political party. I said the same thing about Nebraska, if Johanns wanted a Senate seat why didn't he challenge Ben Nelson in 2006, we were still guarranteed the seat in 2008 cause popular state Atty Gen Jon Bruning would have ran, so that way Johanns would still be a Senator(with 2 years more senority) and we'd be at 42 instead of 41. But hay thats what a real party would do. I guess the GOP isn't cut out for political strategising.

Anyway back to the point. I will await Mack's decision. If he runs I'm all for it. In your opinion ,Phil, do you think that Rubio would try to challenge a Mack in a primary. As I said thats like challenging a Bush in Florida.

One of the perks of being the strongest candidate for your party in the state is, paradoxically, the right to run when it's easiest to do so. See also Mark Warner, and possibly Ben Chandler.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Go Connie Mack IV.

Oh well. Rubio 2010!

Looks like we will be on opposite sides of a nasty primary fight. I think Rubio would be smarter to wait till 2012. Going up against Mack is almost like challenging a Bush, in Florida terms anyway. Instead this could be like CO 2004 with a nasty primary fight producing a weakened candidate in a swing state. Granted the 2004 FL Sen primary was nasty Martinez had help from above in the general. Whoever the nominee is won't have that with him. First we will have to see if Mack runs.

No, let's have Mack wait. At least he has a House seat that he can spend some time in. Rubio is out of office.

My prefered scenario was for Mack to get this open seat and Jeb Bush our strongest candidate to run against Bill Nelson in 2012. But what the hell the I'm a Republican, I belonged to no organised political party. I said the same thing about Nebraska, if Johanns wanted a Senate seat why didn't he challenge Ben Nelson in 2006, we were still guarranteed the seat in 2008 cause popular state Atty Gen Jon Bruning would have ran, so that way Johanns would still be a Senator(with 2 years more senority) and we'd be at 42 instead of 41. But hay thats what a real party would do. I guess the GOP isn't cut out for political strategising.

Anyway back to the point. I will await Mack's decision. If he runs I'm all for it. In your opinion ,Phil, do you think that Rubio would try to challenge a Mack in a primary. As I said thats like challenging a Bush in Florida.

One of the perks of being the strongest candidate for your party in the state is, paradoxically, the right to run when it's easiest to do so. See also Mark Warner, and possibly Ben Chandler.

That doesn't mean I have to like it.

[Lunar]

With Jeb Bush out of the Florida Senate race, the focus now turns to the Democratic side, where party officials have been trying to land Alex Sink, the state’s popular Chief Financial Officer, as candidate for the seat of retiring Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.).

Sink told the St. Petersburg Times today that she’s “very strongly considering” running, and added that “open seats like this don’t come around very often.” If she jumped in, Florida Democrats expect her to be the heavy favorite to win the nomination and doubt she would face serious primary opposition.

Sink certainly sounds more inclined to run than she did several months ago before Martinez announced he would not be seeking another term. Back in November, she made no public statements about her interest in the Senate seat and had planned to announce she would not be running – but quickly changed plans upon Martinez’s retirement.

On the Republican side, former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio is already making plans to run for the seat. Rubio will be in Washington next week to meet with Republican Senate campaign officials in preparation for a likely campaign.

via Scorecard

[Brittain33]

Like Janet Napolitano, she has a big incentive to get the hell out of Dodge. I wouldn't want to be managing Florida's finances.

[Spaghetti Cat]

I like marco and connie mack, and also wouldn't mind former rep. dave weldon running or even ileana.  haha, if mack runs, maybe mary bono will take on boxer.

[Lunar]

just so everyone knows, Crist has gone from long-shot to almost a near-certainty to run.  Candidates are lining up for the governor's mansion.  I feel a little bit sorry for Kendrick, I'm not sure how he can pull this one out.

Marco looks likely to challenge Crist from the right and I hope Count Chocula & the CfG back him.  It's necessary to keep both the primary and the general election interesting.

[Lunar]

I think I'm the only person on the forum who cares, but this is a BIG deal for anyone that cares about the 59/60 divide:

http://ballotbox.governing.com/2009/04/why-marco-rubio-could-beat-charlie-crist.html



/lunr will keep updating the races that actually matter

[Torie]

Well, for what it is worth I found it interesting. Thanks Lunar.

[??????????]

I'll be supporting Rubio, for sure.

[Lunar]

Rasmussen:

"If Charlie Crist runs for the Senate in 2010 how likely is it that you would vote for him?"  The responses: Very likely 23%; Somewhat likely 34%; Not very likely 28%; Not at all likely 9%; Not sure 6%.  If the "Somewhat likely" can be chipped away at, a "Senator Crist"


Not dominating numbers.

Analysts expect Crist to announce next week.

[Lunar]

day old news, but the DNSC have launched one of their first ads for 2010 against Crist...before he's even announced

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLgvi6-Oppg


This is an incredibly smart move for a few reasons:
1) The Democrats want to bring down Crist's favorability in order to make his primary more competitive.  The better chance Rubio has, and the most Crist has to waste money in order to run ads bragging about how conservative he is, the better it is for the Dems
2) The Democrats have a credible, semi-telegenic, excellent fundraising, challenger against a normal [not popular governor] opponent and they need to attempt to bring Crist down to a normal level to see if it's possible before they throw away any more money at Meek

[Rowan]

Crist is a lock for the seat if he runs, IMO.

[??????????]

Crist is a lock for the seat if he runs, IMO.

I wouldn't vote for him or Martinez again.

[Lunar]

Crist is a lock for the seat if he runs, IMO.

1.  He's going to run.

2. That's probably true, ironically for some of the reasons that Specter might be sitting comfortably.  It's not quite the lock that, say, whoever wins the Kansas primary is.  It's perhaps the equivalent of what Hodes is in New Hampshire.

3. It looks like he's going to have a serious primary and he's quite unpopular among the GOP base for his support of the stimulus, again ironic.  Or maybe it's not ironic.  It's something.  

[Lunar]

Crist is a lock for the seat if he runs, IMO.

I wouldn't vote for him or Martinez again.

I hope a well-funded anti-stimulus third-party runs. 

Rubio has gotten RedState's endorsement and raised a decent $250k in the first quarter -- more impressive considering everyone was waiting to see what the field looked like.  Word is that Rubio, who was originally looking to run for governor, now sees a far less insanely crowded field and at least a decent shot to the nomination in the Senatorial race.

If Rubio raises the money, I think he could beat Crist.  Don't expect to see Crist appearing with Obama to tout the stimulus package again...I think.  This could be a good place for Count Chocula (Club for Growth) to get involved...

still waiting for next week when Crist announces

[Lunar]

oh, I read this but forgot to post it.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/gubernatorial/article997754.ece

"Is there room in the Republican Party for Charlie Crist?"




I wish someone was an expert in Maine, Pennsylvania, and Florida GOP primary electorates.

[Lunar]

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/senate/rubios-running-in-florida-sena.html

good quick read

"Look for a number of Bush loyalists to also work on Rubio's behalf -- either publicly or, more likely, behind the scenes."

"The governor starts the primary with a clear edge over Rubio thanks to his name identification statewide. But, Crist is not the favored candidate of many Florida conservatives and Rubio is likely to paint the race as an ideological fight."

[Lunar]

OH CHARLIE, you're SUCH A TEASE


http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2009/05/the-buzz-crist-may-announce-next-week.html

[Brittain33]

"See, my fingers aren't crossed!"

[Lunar]

I was going to say cocktease but I thought it was too funny

[Lunar]

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2009/05/club-for-growth-digs-rubio-not-crist.html

Count Chocula

[© tweed]

could the Rubio momentum scare Crist out of the race?  because if he loses the GOP primary for Senate he's probably done, at least for a while.  if he runs for Gov he sets up ok for 2012 or 2016

[Lunar]

could the Rubio momentum scare Crist out of the race? 

It's a threat, and it could.  All indications though is that the establishment will back Crist and he's going to enter regardless.

[© tweed]

could Meek beat Rubio?