LA-04 Runoff, Predictions and Results

[Franzl]

Honestly, this election is pretty much win-win.  It's pretty much a Republican versus a Republican.

still seems like you wouldn't like the DINO much, considering his economics.

[Ronnie]

Honestly, this election is pretty much win-win.  It's pretty much a Republican versus a Republican.

still seems like you wouldn't like the DINO much, considering his economics.

I remember seeing him speak (CSPAN?), and he didn't seem bad at all.  It might be just rhetoric, though.

[Meeker]

Fancy: http://electionresults.sos.louisiana.gov/weborb30/soselection/soselection.html

[Sam Spade]

53-45 Fleming. The early voting looks bad for Carmouche.

Details or a link would be welcomed

http://www.sos.louisiana.gov/Portals/0/elections/pdf/1126StatewideStats.pdf

Subtracting Orleans, Jefferson and Terrebone gives 7,378 early votes: 5,816 white (78.8%), 1,428 black (19.4%), 134 other (1.8%). Given that the district is a third AA, it doesn't sound very promising to me.

Early voting is not a big thing in LA, but where Natchitoches and Bossier have similar EV turnout to Caddo and all three have few blacks showing up, that is a problem, of course, unless same day turnout is better, which it should be...

[Mr.Phips]

53-45 Fleming. The early voting looks bad for Carmouche.

Details or a link would be welcomed

http://www.sos.louisiana.gov/Portals/0/elections/pdf/1126StatewideStats.pdf

Subtracting Orleans, Jefferson and Terrebone gives 7,378 early votes: 5,816 white (78.8%), 1,428 black (19.4%), 134 other (1.8%). Given that the district is a third AA, it doesn't sound very promising to me.

Early voting is not a big thing in LA, but where Natchitoches and Bossier have similar EV turnout to Caddo and all three have few blacks showing up, that is a problem, of course, unless same day turnout is better, which it should be...

What did the early voting look like in the LA-06 special.  I remember the early totals were released first and they had Jenkins up by something like 52%-44%. 

[Bacon King]

This thread is now also about LA-02 because giving Jefferson his own thread would be depressing.

I just voted for Rahim, at 5:30 PM Central time. Voter number 176.

[Lunar]

Why does LA do this again?

[Ronnie]

This thread is now also about LA-02 because giving Jefferson his own thread would be depressing.

I just voted for Rahim, at 5:30 PM Central time. Voter number 176.

Jefferson Davis: 35%
Malik Rahim: 29%
Joseph Cao: 36%

What if something like that happens?

The sky is falling!

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Why does LA do this again?

It's not a runoff, it's the general election, because the primary runoff was delayed until November 4.

[Meeker]

Although I'll hope for the best, I'd be surprised if Rahim breaks 10%.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This thread is now also about LA-02 because giving Jefferson his own thread would be depressing.

I just voted for Rahim, at 5:30 PM Central time. Voter number 176.

I though LA-02 had its own thread set up days ago. But I don;t see why we can't just cover both here. That way we will be able to comment on both races at the same time without having to change to a different thread.

LA-02 Prediction
Jefferson 82%
Cao 10%
Rahim 8%

[Lief 🗽]

I thought LA got rid of run-offs for federal positions? Why are these two run-offs still happening?

I'm hoping Rahim wins, obviously. Don't really care about LA-04.

[Bacon King]

This thread is now also about LA-02 because giving Jefferson his own thread would be depressing.

I just voted for Rahim, at 5:30 PM Central time. Voter number 176.

I though LA-02 had its own thread set up days ago. But I don;t see why we can't just cover both here. That way we will be able to comment on both races at the same time without having to change to a different thread.

LA-02 Prediction
Jefferson 82%
Cao 10%
Rahim 8%

Now, I don't yet know nearly enough about Louisiana politics to trust my gut on this, but I doubt it'll be THAT lopsided.

11/04/08 results, when the second round of the Democratic primary was on the general election ballot for (I believe) everyone not registered under another party:

Bill Jefferson: 56.79%
Helena Moreno: 43.21%

[Bacon King]

I thought LA got rid of run-offs for federal positions? Why are these two run-offs still happening?

I'm hoping Rahim wins, obviously. Don't really care about LA-04.

Gustav postponed the election schedule. This is the general election for these races; primary run-offs were what was held on Nov 4.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I thought LA got rid of run-offs for federal positions? Why are these two run-offs still happening?

I'm hoping Rahim wins, obviously. Don't really care about LA-04.

Gustav postponed the election schedule. This is the general election for these races; primary run-offs were what was held on Nov 4.

This is what you get when you have your primary, priamry runooff and general within one month of each other. Then when something happens causings it to be delayed you get this crap.

Put the Primary in July, The primary runoff in Sept and the General in Nov. That way you can delay it if need be without causing this crazy result.

[Padfoot]

when do polls close?

[Meeker]

when do polls close?

Two minutes ago.

[Meeker]

Five precincts in from Vernon, Fleming at 61%

[Meeker]

Early vote and absentees trickling in from various counties, Fleming at 59%

[Ronnie]

Caddo Parish will be the decider here.  Carmouche has it if he breaks 60; if not, I don't know.  Fleming has to get Carmouche under 58% there to have a chance.

If I have to be frank, Fleming isn't doing so well.  We have to see.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

All I know is if it continues at this rate it will be 2,000 minutes before its done.


 

Caddo Parish will be the decider here.  Carmouche has it if he breaks 60; if not, I don't know.  Fleming has to get Carmouche under 58% there to have a chance.

Okay. What Parish's do Fleming have to win by a wide margin.

[Meeker]

The early voting numbers don't look too bad for Carmouche. He's winning all the counties Landrieu won.

Also, Webster is currently 58% Carmouche whereas Landrieu only got 49% there last month. Probably just the black precincts though, don't read too much into it.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

With 31/640 precincts in, Carmouche has a very slight lead.
Now with 35/640 precincts in, Fleming has regained the lead.
And with 39/640 in, Carmouche is back on top. Whee.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

With 31/640 precincts in, Carmouche has a very slight lead.
Now with 35/640 precincts in, Fleming has regained the lead.
And with 39/640 in, Carmouche is back on top. Whee.

What site do you see this on?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The pattern so far looks mildly encouraging for Carmouche, but tha can never quite be sure of anything this early in the South.